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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 504

charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2007 6:57:06 AM | message detail
Ryu had a lead of over 700 votes against Riku + Roxas, it's down to 300 and it won't hold, but Hayabusa looks great right now and for next round.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 28: Ryu Hayabusa > Riku Points: 78/108
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2007 7:01:58 AM | message detail
Hey, I wasn't kidding about the Dante/Ryu H. SFF, y'know. It's why I went as high as Lopen for Dante in 2k6, and it paid off! Ever played a DMC game and one of the three versions of the new Ninja Gaiden? The similarities between the two are ASTOUNDING, and that's something that transcends things like console gaps to action game fanatics. The overlap in terms of a contest setting is slight, but you've also got to take into account Ryu H. had Ninja Gaiden: Black between his 2k5 match and 2k6, and (lol) Sigma since then.

As for the rest (aside from it being clear that Hayabusa boosted or Riku dropped from their relative stats)?... let's just say I don't buy Yoshi being indirectly stronger than Dante in 2006, and leave it at that.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/30/2007 7:11:58 AM | message detail
Looks like the kids prefer Riku over Roxas.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2007 7:21:30 AM | message detail
Hey, I wasn't kidding about the Dante/Ryu H. SFF, y'know. It's why I went as high as Lopen for Dante in 2k6, and it paid off! Ever played a DMC game and one of the three versions of the new Ninja Gaiden? The similarities between the two are ASTOUNDING, and that's something that transcends things like console gaps to action game fanatics.

Here goes KH telling me things about myself that I didn't even realize. I did vote Dante in that match because I prefer him and DMC over NG. An overperformance from Dante isn't a bad reason for this result.

Of course, there are a number of other factors I believe are going on here too. Ryu benefitting from the format, Riku not being the beast he was in 2006, a more Xbox friendly site. This match just played out perfectly for Ryu.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Haseo/Riku/Roxas/Ryu H. - Bracket: Riku > Ryu H. - Vote: Riku (91/108)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/30/2007 7:21:42 AM | message detail
tag
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/30/2007 7:27:55 AM | message detail
Personally I'm thinking Riku was overrated. He was darn close to Sora in the stats... remember when we thought Magus was close to Crono? We thought Zero was pretty close to Mega Man too, then they went and lost to Knuckles and Luigi. Ryu Hayabusa is Riku's Knuckles.

I agree that Riku is probably overrated through Yoshi...but that brings Hayabusa down as well! I can probably buy Dante/Hayabusa SFF, though.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2007 7:29:02 AM | message detail
All I can say is I'm disappointed some dumb ninja is beating the two best characters ever.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 9/30/2007 7:33:18 AM | message detail
This is the most powerful display of SFF I think I've ever seen.

On the other hand, I expect the tables to be turned next round in this situation.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/30/2007 7:34:26 AM | message detail
This is the most powerful display of SFF I think I've ever seen.

This is your first contest, I assume?
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Riku 36.03% - Ninja 35.21% - Roxex 20.76% - Hase-who? 8.00% ~ Status: Meh
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/30/2007 7:35:29 AM | message detail
This is the most powerful display of SFF I think I've ever seen.

Ganon/Link is the most powerful display of SFF IMHO.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2007 7:36:50 AM | message detail
Ganon/Link is the most powerful display of SFF IMHO.

That match never happened IMHO.

plz stop making stuff up kthx
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Haseo/Riku/Roxas/Ryu H. - Bracket: Riku > Ryu H. - Vote: Riku (91/108)
charmander6000 | Posted 9/30/2007 8:17:34 AM | message detail
Hayabusa is increasing?
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 28: Ryu Hayabusa > Riku Points: 78/108
HaRRicH | Posted 9/30/2007 8:30:59 AM | message detail
Hayabussa's only dropped about half of a percent since I went to bed last night? ...Niiiice. There's still all day, but this ain't bad so far, ha.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/30/2007 8:33:12 AM | message detail
This performance is making Ryu look like a noble niner >_>
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therealmnm | Posted 9/30/2007 8:49:06 AM | message detail
- we've never had a read on his true strength. in 2k4, it was Arabusa. 2k5 and 2k6 were against Zero and Dante, two characters that could overlap with him for whatever reason. I don't feel so good about saying that about Zero, but Dante does share the most similarities to Hayabusa.

It doesn't have to be Zero/Ryu SFF. This just confirms that Zero was definitely SFF'd by Mario and Luigi! His match in this contest you say? He was just, uh, "gone into hiding while he healed" </MMX6>

As for the Akuma talk from last topic, I don't necessarily buy him not being in the original SFF hurting him significantly. The Vs. series was probably just as prominent as SF2 collectively, and as it was said before, Akuma has had a major presence in the SF series since he was introduced. But more importantly, people are forgetting that Akuma being that much more liked than the Bisons and the Chun Lis by people that do know him pretty much offsets him not being in the original. It's not like he's obscure or anything. Plenty of people still know who he is.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/30/2007 9:01:38 AM | message detail
I really can't believe Ryu H is doing so well. I mean expected Ryu H > Riku all along, and thought me taking Riku > Ryu H was a big time upset since Roxas would likely siphon votes, but good lord, he is dominating here. Anybody care to tell me why Ryu H is doing so well? Surely this can't be all Gaiden Sigma's doing.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/30/2007 9:02:34 AM | message detail
Anybody care to tell me why Ryu H is doing so well?

Sunday Sigma Factor
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Haseo/Riku/Roxas/Ryu H. - Bracket: Riku > Ryu H. - Vote: Riku (91/108)
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/30/2007 9:20:59 AM | message detail
This match would at least be mildly entertaining on a weekday. But noooo.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:29:40 AM | message detail
This is your first contest, I assume?

Nope, fifth. I just can't remember any better examples of how SFF can really annihilate a character's chances.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/30/2007 9:37:33 AM | message detail
From HeroicTronBonne Posted 9/30/2007 12:01:38 PM #116
I really can't believe Ryu H is doing so well. I mean expected Ryu H > Riku all along, and thought me taking Riku > Ryu H was a big time upset since Roxas would likely siphon votes, but good lord, he is dominating here. Anybody care to tell me why Ryu H is doing so well? Surely this can't be all Gaiden Sigma's doing.

Yeah, I never got why Ryu > Riku was an upset either. But then again, I also thought Axel would put up a fight and Marcus would beat Kefka though, so... <_<
~~~
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:43:07 AM | message detail
First off, let me reiterate that this match was obvious. Next, allow me to point out something you guys fail to grasp


- Haseo. Who do you think Haseo is hurting here? 10% isn't THAT bad and it's obvious that the vast majority of those votes would have gone to Riku/Roxas. Take out Haseo Roxas and suddenly you're looking at a 52-48 victory for Riku.

- Next round is going to be tough. Nightmare did decent but I don't think he did well enough. Remember what Snake did to Sora? Snake will do the same to Riku, although Riku does have the benefit of being the sole RPG character.

- If there was a Snake/Dante match, do you all earnestly believe Dante would do as expected? Of course not. Call it SFF or whatever you like but Snake would overperform on Dante just like Dante overperformed on Ryu H. Snake should hinder Ryu H. in this same way. Round 2 should be good.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/30/2007 9:47:31 AM | message detail
All hail great hochi, the man who is behind the theory of " Sonic will take away 13% from Link while he takes only 1% from Snake and Cloud each."
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/30/2007 10:20:27 AM | message detail
Who do you think Haseo is hurting here? 10% isn't THAT bad and it's obvious that the vast majority of those votes would have gone to Riku/Roxas.

Yup, Haseo having 80% overlap with Riku confirmed
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Kaxon | Posted 9/30/2007 10:46:04 AM | message detail
- Haseo. Who do you think Haseo is hurting here? 10% isn't THAT bad and it's obvious that the vast majority of those votes would have gone to Riku/Roxas. Take out Haseo Roxas and suddenly you're looking at a 52-48 victory for Riku.

Exactly. Remember when all of Snake's votes went to Cloud and he beat Link in the next match? Oh wait...
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 11:05:02 AM | message detail
Just getting around to looking at this match now, and I don't have the time to go read everything that's happened since last night, so...

who takes Riku > Ryu H. in a 1v1 match still? And if you do, what's the %.

Also, Microsoft boost confirmed.

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Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:14:31 AM | message detail
Haseo dropped more in percentage with the morning vote than Ryu.

Hahaha.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2007 11:15:33 AM | message detail
Just one interesting and fun fact on Akuma:

Street Fighter 2 sold 16 million copies.

All other Street Fighter games combined sold 4 million copies.

There's a good reason that it's thought that being exclusive to the later Street Fighters is a bad thing, especially considering that arcades were most popular in SF2's time. The vs. series helps out, yes...but I don't think that'll be enough for Akuma to match the likes of Ken.
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Heroic_Vyers | Posted 9/30/2007 11:16:41 AM | message detail
Also this will be 5 straight matches for me of full points.

And suddenly my bracket is twitching.

-SC
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:17:35 AM | message detail
So I logged on this morning and expected Ryu to be down bu a percent or two and he's only dropped half?

Yeesh.
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Dekar TKB | Posted 9/30/2007 11:19:25 AM | message detail
who takes Riku > Ryu H. in a 1v1 match still? And if you do, what's the %.

I still would, I think. I have to assume that nearly all of the Roxas votes would go to Riku. After that, it's a question of where the other PS2 RPG character's vote go to. Looks good for Riku, all things considered. I'd probably take him with 52%.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 11:19:26 AM | message detail

There's a good reason that it's thought that being exclusive to the later Street Fighters is a bad thing, especially considering that arcades were most popular in SF2's time. The vs. series helps out, yes...but I don't think that'll be enough for Akuma to match the likes of Ken.


I had Squall > Akuma for a loooooong time in my bracket, just because I don't have any faith in Aeris, plus Squall should be dealing a nice amount of damage to her... but then I thought "lol akuma" and switched to Squall > Aeris. Akuma still can place, just because of the possibility of LFF or SFF tomorrow, it just depends how severe it is.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:19:41 AM | message detail
Aaaaaand Riku + Roxas > Ryu again. Bleh. At least Ryu was beating them combined for over half the match. <_<
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 11:20:46 AM | message detail
The thing is... I would have never even thought of Riku/Ryu H as a close match... and now I'm starting to think Ryu should be considered the favorite.

Master Chief > Link believe
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2007 11:21:08 AM | message detail
who takes Riku > Ryu H. in a 1v1 match still? And if you do, what's the %.

Well, Riku's getting a KH game or two in the next year...but Ryu might be getting NG2, and NG2 is definitely a bigger deal than a couple portable KHs. If all those come out, Ryu definitely takes it.

Oh, and Ryu's getting Dragon Sword too, which turns the match even more decisively in his favor.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/30/2007 11:22:30 AM | message detail
Yeah after NG2(With this site seemingly going more and more 360 centric) and Dragon Sword to expand his fanbase even more, Ryu's looking really good for the future.
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Lopen | Posted 9/30/2007 11:26:02 AM | message detail
Riku would have to get 80% of his Roxas's and Haseo's votes to beat Ryu Hayabusa here. Haseo is a huge stretch for that, and I don't even buy that 80% of Roxas's go to Hayabusa. Anyone who's only played KH2 is a strong candidate to have Roxas > Ryu > Riku in their voting priorities, as Riku didn't do that much in that game.

Anyone who takes Riku to beat Hayabusa 1v1 is just wearing X-Stat blinders at this point, I say.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/30/2007 11:31:43 AM | message detail
I don't get why people say that Riku didn't have much of a role in KH2. I didn't like him at all in KH1, but the stuff he did in KH2 was all extremely awesome...he was at the center of the best parts of the game.

Oh, and KH1 was a bigger game than KH2, so I'm willing to bet that almost everyone on GameFAQs who played KH2 also played KH1. The segment that's just played KH2 is so small as to be irrelevant.
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Lopen | Posted 9/30/2007 11:32:08 AM | message detail
Er... 80% of Roxas's votes going to Riku.

Not to mention there are no doubt KH fans that just don't really like Riku (fools as they may be). I mean just because you've played both games doesn't mean you like Roxas and Riku enough to vote them over Hayabusa.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:32:54 AM | message detail
Ryu H regains the lead!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2007 11:33:42 AM | message detail
And Hayabusa retakes the lead against Riku/Roxas!

KH day vote... pah!
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
TexasAggie | Posted 9/30/2007 11:34:17 AM | message detail
I dont think the board or the gurus understood how SFF worked in this format coming into this match.

Let's assume that pre-match you believed the x-stats were right and Riku would get 61% on Ryu H head to head. If he wins 61-39, that means he's won by 22%.

Now throw Roxas into the mix. Assuming there's 100% SFF between the 2, all Roxas has to do is leach 23% of Riku's votes. Meaning you'd have to believe Riku could beat Roxas 77-23 head to head. Let's say the SFF isnt quite that strong, and Riku would only need to beat Roxas 70-30. That's still a huge stretch.

Yes I took Riku too, but only because the name "Roxas" didnt register with me when I was making my picks.
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Contest pts: 88 (leaderboard position #11)
Today: Riku>Ryu H
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 11:34:19 AM | message detail
KH day vote is a joke when compared to MICROSOFTFEAR

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:35:06 AM | message detail
Kingdom Flops
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 11:36:22 AM | message detail
like your wang
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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Janus5000 | Posted 9/30/2007 11:40:22 AM | message detail
Now throw Roxas into the mix. Assuming there's 100% SFF between the 2, all Roxas has to do is leach 23% of Riku's votes. Meaning you'd have to believe Riku could beat Roxas 77-23 head to head. Let's say the SFF isnt quite that strong, and Riku would only need to beat Roxas 70-30. That's still a huge stretch.

I don't entirely understand your math.

39/61 ~= .64. Wouldn't Roxas have to take 36% of Riku's votes to even put the two equal?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 12:06:24 PM | message detail
Yeah.. at this point I think I have to take Ryu H > Riku one on one. He's probably only going to increase his % relative to Riku/Roxas combined the rest of the way. Which would pretty much mean Riku needs to get 100% of Roxas' votes and then the majority of Haseo's. I mean, I guess it could happen, but yeah, not taking that, and I was a very big Riku supporter going into this year.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2007 12:16:04 PM | message detail
Haha... 51.81% update from Hayabusa.

Micro$oft owns this Kingdom's day vote, I'm afraid.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Lopen | Posted 9/30/2007 12:18:17 PM | message detail
This is also kinda weird... it's happening around 15 hours in on a weekend. Maybe the after school vote being mostly related to school is a misconception?
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/30/2007 12:28:36 PM | message detail
You know, if another Games Contest is our big draw next year, we won't be seeing another Character Battle until 2009. That's a three year break between our most traditional contest. Personally, I support that bigtime; I can only wonder how much certain characters will have changed by then.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/30/2007 12:30:16 PM | message detail
I agree entirely... that is if I'm still here in 2009. Probably. Anyway, I'd rather have a games contest and a character battle next year, but if we're limited to one, bring on the games.

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I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
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