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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 504

Heroic_Vyers | Posted 9/29/2007 9:42:24 PM | message detail
GO NINJA GO NINJA GO! GO NINJA GO NINJA GO!


*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php

Post Away!

-SC
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Next Game: The Orange Box
http://www.geocities.jp/iwamitsujp/top/top18/top342.jpg
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/29/2007 9:42:49 PM | message detail
Vanilla Ice > Ryu Hayabusa
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Riku 36.03% - Ninja 35.21% - Roxex 20.76% - Hase-who? 8.00% ~ Status: ?
swirIdude | Posted 9/29/2007 9:43:20 PM | message detail
Annnnnnd the 450 rule is broken again.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
FFDragon | Posted 9/29/2007 9:43:56 PM | message detail
lol 450 rule no 1 likes u
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
Heroic_Vyers | Posted 9/29/2007 9:43:59 PM | message detail
Screw the rules, I have money.

Plus I couldn't resist the opening line.

-SC
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Next Game: The Orange Box
http://www.geocities.jp/iwamitsujp/top/top18/top342.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 9/29/2007 9:53:58 PM | message detail
Too early
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Heroic_Vyers | Posted 9/29/2007 9:55:57 PM | message detail
To be honest I didn't really know there was some kind of official post # or anything, I thought it was around 400.

*shrug*

(Also god damn Ryu is just dominating)

-SC
---
Next Game: The Orange Box
http://www.geocities.jp/iwamitsujp/top/top18/top342.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:12:46 PM | message detail
Don't look at me, I had Ryu > Riku

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Seginustemple | Posted 9/29/2007 11:14:13 PM | message detail
I have Ryu going into the third round and I couldn't feel better about it now *insert fonz "ay" here*
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
creativename | Posted 9/29/2007 11:15:35 PM | message detail
It's kinda cute how Haseo is having the fight of his life trying to get and maintain 10.00% :)


ZFS
I'd say it's something like Red XIII >= Cid > Barret > Yuffie > Cait Sith. Seeing either Red or Cid would be cool.

Sounds about right. I expect quite a bit of difference between Red XIII and Barret though. Not sure who Cid would be closer to.


Lopen
Eh, I may be alone in this, and biased, but I think Yuffie is the strongest FFVII character we haven't seen yet. Don't underestimate the KHF, man.

I would be damn surprised if Yuffie was stronger than Red XIII. I doubt KHF does diddly for her. Does she ever join your party? Anyway, she doesn't seem like the type to have real strength.


transcience
FF10's cast is better, though FF7 wins where it counts -- Cloud.

I'd have to go with 7's - Red, Cid, Vincent - it's a very solid cast.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:15:48 PM | message detail
I find it hilarious that hochi is mocking people for getting a debateable match wrong, when he had Isaac advancing over Pikachu. Good to see one of my dark horses completely embarassing the so-called #1

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 9/29/2007 11:15:57 PM | message detail
Me too, brother. *high fives*

I seriously think he might even get through Kratos and Kirby. This is ridiculous.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
Keno316 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:16:38 PM | message detail
Well...I have Ryu over Riku now. But I still think Riku beats out Ryu next round.


Also, I have Squall > Aeris for 2 rounds, And then Sonic Squall at the end. However, At this point I'm afraid, whether is be Aeris or Sora, that whoever's with Squall will split the fanbase and allow Sub Zero to sneak by...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:17:10 PM | message detail
10's cast has Auron

7's cast has Cloud, Sephy, Cid and Barret

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:17:24 PM | message detail
I'd have to go with 7's - Red, Cid, Vincent - it's a very solid cast.

Tran's a Vincent hater!!

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let's mosey
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:17:43 PM | message detail
I find it hilarious that hochi is mocking people for getting a debateable match wrong, when he had Isaac advancing over Pikachu. Good to see one of my dark horses completely embarassing the so-called #1


Looking strictly at the percentages, my pick was actually smarter.


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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:17:55 PM | message detail
I can't see him finishing anywhere near this high. Riku and Roxas should both increase in the morning.

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
paraboxx | Posted 9/29/2007 11:18:18 PM | message detail
For FFVII, Barrey, Cid or Red would do the best. It is a fact frickin Yuffie would be much weaker than those three. If you argue otherwise, you're quite dumb.

Arguing Barret is worse than arguing Yuffie.
I don't even think Cid's worth testing, really.

lol you idiots chose Riku
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Hochiminh155's Trail to Failure
swirldude has exposed me as a prediction fraud.


People with those kinds of sigs don't get to make these kinds of comments.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2007 11:18:20 PM | message detail
After Ulti made #500 when #499 was at seventy-three posts, I don't want to hear about some official post-number before we make another topic. That's just ****ty.


I ain't going to make topics very early (except #501, thanks to the ASCII and hypocrisy [including my own by making #501 so early]), but I don't think anybody can tell somebody not to make a topic too early any more after that malarkey.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:18:45 PM | message detail
eh, opinion post

Cloud >> Tidus
Vincent < Auron
Aeris = Yuna
Tifa << Lulu
Barret < Wakka
Yuffie < Rikku
Cid, Red > Kimahri < Cait Sith

FF7's got more, but give me FF10's - plus the communication between the guys in FF10 is far superior, whereas FF7 just has a rag-tag bunch that's not as cohesive.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Draco1214 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:20:17 PM | message detail
Tidus >>>>>>>>>> Cloud

At least Tidus was likeable.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Seginustemple | Posted 9/29/2007 11:20:40 PM | message detail
Looking strictly at the percentages, my pick was actually smarter.

Isaac - 17.60%
Pikachu - 36.62%
Serge - 13.93%
Tidus - 31.84%

I don't know dude, I think BT might have got you on this one....
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If you fail at life you try suicide. If you fail at suicide, what's next? Failing at poetry... - Fidormula
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:21:23 PM | message detail
FF10 does do character interaction better, yeah. Probably the best in FF in that respect.

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let's mosey
transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:21:38 PM | message detail
Tran's a Vincent hater!!


he's optional lol
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:22:35 PM | message detail
I'll take FF1's cast, thanks.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:23:24 PM | message detail
fighter is deep

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let's mosey
transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:23:40 PM | message detail
Fighter > Auron
Thief > Rikku
Black Belt > Wakka
Black Mage > Lulu
White Mage > Yuna
Red Mage > Kimahri
ORB > Tidus

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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:24:10 PM | message detail
ORB for 2k8.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2007 11:29:26 PM | message detail
What have the two hour-by-hour updates so far been like?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:32:45 PM | message detail
Damned if I know. Probably something close to...

10.00% | 27.50% | 17.50% | 45.00%
10.00% | 26.50% | 17.00% | 46.50%

That's just a rough guess skimming over the updater.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2007 11:37:06 PM | message detail
Nice. It's kinda scary that Hayabusa's rising right now though...he's obviously in no danger of losing, but I consider him more of a day-character. Him rising at night makes me think Riku and Roxas are REALLY going to tear into him during the day, weekend or not.

Probably a good assumption based on a bad reason though; Riku/Roxas are KH-material, but this doesn't mean that Hayabusa isn't a day-character still. Just strikes me funny.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:38:02 PM | message detail
so...

Riku/Roxas/Haseo or HK/Lloyd/Jak?

just sayin'.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:39:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, this will probably come down a fair bit during the day, but this is still pretty nutty.

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:40:32 PM | message detail
Haseo is a goddamn powerhouse and you know it.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:41:56 PM | message detail
You have to remember that Riku and Roxas are splitting a vote. Plus they have the whole day to kill that percentage. If Ryu finishes above 42%, I'll be impressed thoroughly. I had him at getting 40% today, but I also had Riku getting 38%. In my opinion, this is more Roxas impressing than Ryu H.

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Gaddswell | Posted 9/29/2007 11:43:21 PM | message detail
Roxas impressing? He's at 17.11%!
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:44:39 PM | message detail
I'm just waiting for that update Roxas loses to Haseo. I know it's coming.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2007 11:45:12 PM | message detail
Riku/Roxas/Haseo or HK/Lloyd/Jak?

...oh goddamn. Zero only had 39.56%, too. Hayabusa will drop, but...I mean, did even L-Block drop that much from now? I'm taking Riku to compete with Zero, too, and definitely beat those other jobbers. I'd imagine Roxas would duel with them as well.

That makes this all the more amazing.


Since you got me thinking about it: Riku/Roxas + Haseo, or Matt/Mac + Ammy? Dante got 49.16% in his match.....
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:46:25 PM | message detail
Haseo is the star of the round.

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let's mosey
Gaddswell | Posted 9/29/2007 11:48:00 PM | message detail
I posted this at RAP but I'll post it here as well:

Leon Kennedy
Kratos
Ryu Hayabusa
Dante
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:48:46 PM | message detail
the Riku trio, of course. same for the Zero match, leeching or not. one guy supposedly at 30% is better than a bunch of guys pegged around 16-17% in my eyes. then you've got Roxas adding a few extra votes and, uh, whatever the hell is causing people to vote for Haseo..
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:49:28 PM | message detail
and while Hayabusa is impressing here, it's not THAT impressive. don't put him in that class yet.

..I mean, Dante nearly doubled him last year.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Janus5000 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:49:37 PM | message detail
Roxas impressing? He's at 17.11%!

Before the KH kiddie rush. Plus some of us didn't have much faith in him.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:50:17 PM | message detail
That seems like one of those "which of these does not belong."

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/29/2007 11:50:56 PM | message detail
Link
Cloud
Snake
Nathan Hale


Who ya got.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 79/108; Oracle - 29th
ZFS | Posted 9/29/2007 11:51:53 PM | message detail
Nathan Hale wins that with 54%.

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let's mosey
HaRRicH | Posted 9/29/2007 11:52:58 PM | message detail
I know, but we can agree that the Riku/Roxas combo rises well above the Mac/Matt combo, right? Ammy probably smokes Haseo, but not enough to the point where I'd think Dante has a tougher four-pack by any means. Not trying to hype Hayabusa > Dante, but I'm hyping that they're not terribly distant in this format if the first round is indicative of anything. Of course, there is plenty enough controversy in both this format and the first round, so.....
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/29/2007 11:55:10 PM | message detail
L-block dropped almost 10% from the board vote to the end of the match. Frog had a sizable lead on Axel.

If 1 Kingdom Hearts character can almost come back against Frog, 2 Kingdom Hearts characters should be enough to drop-kick Ryu's percentage. Like I said, I'll be surprised if he finishes above 42%.

TuRtLe
~~~
83/108 in the contest. Next pick: Ryu H > Riku
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Gaddswell | Posted 9/29/2007 11:57:16 PM | message detail
Frog and Ryu H are different though. Frog is Frog.Ryu H being on the X-Box should mean he's good with the day. He shouldn't drop that much.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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transience | Posted 9/29/2007 11:57:56 PM | message detail
well, there's two, no, three.. no, four ways to look at it:

- massive Ryu Hayabusa boost (makes the most "sense" - PS3 port, "xbox boost")
- the format (makes *some* sense, but not to this extent)
- a Riku drop (doesn't make that much sense to me - I mean, he had two fairly impressive years, a hell of a showing on a loved Nintendo character, Axel pushed Frog to the limit.. and now, this)
- we've never had a read on his true strength. in 2k4, it was Arabusa. 2k5 and 2k6 were against Zero and Dante, two characters that could overlap with him for whatever reason. I don't feel so good about saying that about Zero, but Dante does share the most similarities to Hayabusa.

that said, Lloyd did look pretty good compared to x-stat expectations..
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
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