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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 502

The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 4:15:50 PM | message detail
DK lost his first 15 minute update to Marth. Man, finally!
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/28/2007 4:16:12 PM | message detail
A sky pirate, actually.

...Yeah, you're right. Vyse has nothing to worry about.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2007 4:54:56 PM | message detail
So where's that undebatably better day vote Kratos is supposed to have? Looks like Marth is the one that did the damage with it!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
ZFS | Posted 9/28/2007 4:57:48 PM | message detail
I'd hesistate to call less than a percent gain from his lowest point doing "damage" !!

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let's mosey
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 4:58:08 PM | message detail
Better question: Where's our match pics?
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http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2007 4:58:13 PM | message detail
looks like he has Dante trends now! wonder if GOW2 changed him or if his opponents were just that bad.

he's certainly not going down vs. a Smash character though. that's impressive, I suppose. Marth's not even doing much here. DK's holding up pretty good for his history.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 5:12:39 PM | message detail
I forgot how much DK chokes at the end of a match

Time .| Donkey | Kratos ..| Marth ....| Prince
01:00 | 28.46% | 36.83% | 22.25% | 12.45%
02:00 | 27.55% | 37.88% | 20.96% | 13.61%
03:00 | 28.51% | 39.63% | 18.71% | 13.15%
04:00 | 28.67% | 38.73% | 19.94% | 12.66%
05:00 | 30.95% | 41.40% | 16.00% | 11.65%
06:00 | 31.97% | 38.59% | 18.13% | 11.31%
07:00 | 30.72% | 37.49% | 20.39% | 11.39%
08:00 | 32.04% | 37.94% | 19.46% | 10.56%
09:00 | 30.77% | 39.14% | 19.10% | 10.98%
10:00 | 30.23% | 39.75% | 19.24% | 10.78%
11:00 | 29.96% | 40.10% | 19.04% | 10.90%
12:00 | 27.76% | 42.22% | 18.88% | 11.14%
13:00 | 27.54% | 41.78% | 18.90% | 11.79%
14:00 | 27.26% | 43.13% | 18.91% | 10.70%
15:00 | 28.47% | 41.64% | 19.15% | 10.74%
16:00 | 27.08% | 40.49% | 21.02% | 11.41%
17:00 | 26.31% | 39.68% | 22.93% | 11.08%
18:00 | 27.06% | 39.44% | 23.06% | 10.45%
19:00 | 25.52% | 41.35% | 22.54% | 10.59%
20:00 | 23.85% | 42.11% | 22.63% | 11.41%

He almost lost an entire hour to Marth there >_>
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2007 5:14:58 PM | message detail
I guess Prince was a first-hour kind of guy after all
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/28/2007 5:36:12 PM | message detail
WE WANT THE DAM PICTURE
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Kratos 37.60% - Chokey Kong 28.69% - Martha 23.30% - Prince 10.41% ~ Status: Good
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/28/2007 6:03:25 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-27.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-28.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-29.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-30.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-31.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-32.jpg
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2007 6:03:40 PM | message detail
Nightmare looks kind of bad.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Agent M | Posted 9/28/2007 6:04:01 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-27.jpg

bleh.... Nightmare looks terrible! Too dark and can't see the bigass sword!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/28/2007 6:05:33 PM | message detail
lol nightmare, lol akuma

Ike is by far my favorite pic... augh same PoP pic.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2007 6:09:25 PM | message detail
augh Akuma, I hope that doesn't ruin what could be a good match

that Roxas picture scares me

hahahaha Duke Nukem and Guybrush in one picture, along with pissed off Freeman and Generic Anime Guy
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2007 6:10:03 PM | message detail
Also Snake has an awesome picture. I know people here don't like TTS but he got a Twin Snakes against MM last year, and you saw what happened.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Mega Mana | Posted 9/28/2007 6:11:52 PM | message detail
Lopen should make these topics more often. Now I can actually see them because they're highlighted!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2007 6:17:27 PM | message detail
Is Vyse the only character to win a match, appeared in multiple contests, and still get the the exact same pic every time? Not complaining, because it's good, but you didn't see a different pic even when he got to Round 2.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 6:30:33 PM | message detail
27.jpg

augh Nightmare. Snake looks good, shooting Vyse in the head and all.

28.jpg

Haseo's later form...didn't expect that. Makes him look kinda cool. Ryu looks good. Riku and Roxas...eh

29.jpg

And I thought Zero's back pic was bad, you can barely even see Akuma's face!

30.jpg

rofl @ Wesker. Daxter looks silly, and Lara's got her TJF going.

31.jpg

This pic is just wacky. Duke and Guybrush are just out there, Ike didin't even get his SSBB pic, and Gordon's....Gordon.

32.jpg

Damn Subbie looks good here. Everyone else looks pretty decent as well.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
DK/Kratos/Marth/Prince- Bracket: Kratos > DK - Vote: DK (83/100)
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 6:33:18 PM | message detail
Ha ha, I knew Nightmare would end up looking terrible. And Vyse looks pretty good! I have a shot!
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
Cecil XIX | Posted 9/28/2007 6:39:34 PM | message detail
Akuma's pic is awesome, though I admit might make him less recognizable to the casuals.
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Wow, an intelligent criticism of Zeta. Never thought I'd see the day. - AmuroNT1
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/28/2007 6:41:19 PM | message detail
Nightmare looks like some sort of cyborg turkey.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Who Cares? | Posted 9/28/2007 6:48:19 PM | message detail
Akuma's pic is awesome, though I admit might make him less recognizable to the casuals.

Meh, anyone that won't recognize Akuma in his trademark pose was likely never going to vote for him in the first place! *shrug*
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Current Points: 75
Maximum Possible Points: 743/768
Draco1214 | Posted 9/28/2007 6:49:41 PM | message detail
I can't even recognize that thing as Nightmare.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/28/2007 6:49:50 PM | message detail
Akuma picture is actually amazing. The Chinese word on his back "Tian" is very recognisable.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Keno316 | Posted 9/28/2007 6:55:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-27.jpg

Ewwww, Nightmare...Vyse and Snake look best here. Too bad Vyse won't win still



http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-28.jpg

Wow! This pic looks badass. Makes that match look really up in the air. Even though Haseo still won't do ****!



http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-29.jpg

Hahaha...Akuma got shafted BIG TIME! I forgot Geno was even in the match. Clearly Squall/Aeris there.



http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-30.jpg

There's just so much MEH in this pic. Sora's gonna eat everyone in it alive.



http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-31.jpg

Hahaha...so much fodder fail in one pic. Amazing...



http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-32.jpg

Blue Dominance in that pic. All that can be said.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/28/2007 6:58:20 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-32.jpg

Another Prince? lol
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/28/2007 7:02:53 PM | message detail
I don't understand the complaining about Akuma's pic. Its still completely obvious who he is and everyone who knows who he is knows that pose.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 7:05:23 PM | message detail
Err, Akuma looks like nothing to me.

Then again he's doing his Liquid impersonation so he'll probably end up doing well anyway <_<
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http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
Tediz247 | Posted 9/28/2007 7:48:22 PM | message detail
27.jpg - Unrecognizable Nightmare... with the generic name and all, I'm now worried about him losing to Vyse.

28.jpg - Great pic. Roxas looks almost as good as Ryu. Should steal enough of Riku's votes for Ryu to get first.

29.jpg - lol Akuma.

30.jpg - TJFTJFTJFTJFTJFTJFalsosoraTJFTJFTJFTJF

31.jpg - ...pretty much exactly what I expected.

32.jpg - Wow, Subby looks awesome. Best individual pic of the round.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/28/2007 7:59:58 PM | message detail
Question: Why does Roxas look like Sora? If the answer is a spoiler, then don't tell me... >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
trannyscience | Posted 9/28/2007 8:00:20 PM | message detail
lol anagrams + x
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 8:00:54 PM | message detail
Because it's easy to reuse designs.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
DK/Kratos/Marth/Prince- Bracket: Kratos > DK - Vote: DK (83/100)
charmander6000 | Posted 9/28/2007 8:01:17 PM | message detail
Match XXVII: Nightmare vs Rayman vs Solid Snake vs Vyse

Information

Name: Nightmare
Game/Series From: Soul Calibur series
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Name: Rayman
Game/Series From: Rayman series
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Name: Solid Snake
Game/Series From: Metal Gear series
Past Contests: CB2k2, CB2k3, CB2k4, CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: Squall (2k2), Knuckles (2k2), Aeris (2k2), Raiden (2k3), Knuckles (2k3), Ryu (2k3), Tanner (2k4), Knuckles (2k4), Frog (2k4), Manny Calavera (2k5), Zelda (2k5), Sora (2k5), Bowser (2k5), Soma Cruz (2k6), Squall (2k6), Yoshi (2k6), Mega Man (2k6), Sonic (2k6), BR Match 1 (2k6), BR Match 2 (2k6), BR Match 3 (2k6)
Losses: Crono (2k2), Mega Man (2k3), Mega Man (2k4), Mario (2k5), Samus (2k6), BR Match 4 (2k6)

Name: Vyse
Game/Series From: Skies of Arcadia
Past Contests: CB2k3, CB2k4, CB2k5
Wins: Laharl (2k4)
Losses: Donkey Kong (2k3), Cloud (2k4), Tifa (2k5)

Analysis

Hey we haven’t had a Noble Nine for a while but you know what that means. At least second place is still debatable somewhat. However if the match happened a few years ago I don’t think this match would be in question, but after seeing the performances of Soul Calibur over the last few contests the board has a different opinion about them.

Like I said there is a Noble Nine in this poll and seeing that his opponents are at or near the fodder line he shouldn’t have a problem winning with ease. The only thing new this year is added hype for MGS4 and SSBB and I don’t think that it’ll amount to anything noticeable. Snake shouldn’t have a problem breaking 50% and he could easily go past 55% if the new characters are total flops.

Ever since Soul Calibur’s performance in the game contest there has been a push at getting Nightmare into the contest since he is probably the biggest character story wise. However in 2006 we saw Soul Calibur do not as expected in the series contest and we saw Ivy Valentine, a main character story wise get pounded by Tifa. She did do better than Vyse, but I think Vyse had on off year so using my stats (they’re better than lol x-stats for predicting the female half) I get Vyse beating Ivy 57/43. Like I said Ivy is pretty big in Soul Calibur and even if Nightmare is stronger he may not be able to make up that gap.

In 2005 Vyse had an off year letting Tifa beat him almost as badly as Cloud did the year before. However I don’t expect him to be at his 2k4 levels either, Skies of Arcadia has had a few years pass and I find it believe that Vyse can still maintain his old strength, this however makes the Vyse/Nightmare battle for second all the more entertaining.

Rayman is another character I’ve wanted to see make it to a contest (actually all the characters I wanted to see made it this year, time to make a new list) though I don’t see him coming anywhere other than last. Rayman has been on the gaming scene over the last year with his new Wii game so he is still fresh in some people’s mind, but like most platformers he probably won’t do that well.

Snake takes first while second is a two race between Vyse and Nightmare. I have Nightmare but looking at my bracket I may have randomly filled it out. I’ll be cheering for Rayman though, but like Banjo he’ll probably come in last.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake > Nightmare

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake - 54.62%, Nightmare - 17.62%, Vyse - 16.26%, Rayman - 11.50%

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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 26: Donkey Kong > Kratos Points: 72/100
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 8:01:44 PM | message detail
Question: Why does Roxas look like Sora?

I bet you can figure it out without having to play the game <_<
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http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
FFDragon | Posted 9/28/2007 8:02:03 PM | message detail
Question: Why does Roxas look like Sora?

Roxas
-x =
Roas

Rearrange: Sora
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 8:04:00 PM | message detail
While you're at it, consider Xenmas!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/28/2007 8:04:28 PM | message detail
lol mansex
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 73/100; Oracle - 28th
BDawg | Posted 9/28/2007 8:06:07 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Rayman might have a better chance than Vyse? Of course that scenario would be based on Nightmare failing and Vyse getting less relevant by the second. Anyway I did pick Nightmare but I would pick Rayman for third if I had to.
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Should I start running now?
Acronym | Posted 9/28/2007 8:07:41 PM | message detail
You know, I already felt dumb enough for picking a character from FF7 to come THIRD in a poll, did they really have to do this to me as well?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-29.jpg
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MURMAIDER MURMAIDER MURMAIDER
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/28/2007 8:07:49 PM | message detail
Yea, haven't played KH2, but is that it? >_>

*imagining a lot of possible plots in KH2 based on that revelation*
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2007 8:07:54 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-27.jpg

Not bad. Vyse seems to always have the exact same picture, but Nightmare looks decent. Hopefully Vyse has dropped more, and Nightmare can be like Ivy.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-28.jpg

Ryu gets badassed ninja vote. Roxas looking decent reallly helps with my banking on a massive KH split, but should be a good match either way.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-29.jpg

If Geno beats Akuma, I'll assume that the back picture exaplains Luigi/Zero and Zero's mediocre round 1 showing.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-30.jpg

Wow, Lara looks like crap. Good thing Wesker is uberfodder

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-31.jpg

That makes me feel much better about Gordon > Duke. I just realized how unmemerable Ike is for anybody who hasn't played his FE game. He will be getting little to no SSB:B support.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-32.jpg

That makes me feel a bit better about Subby. Most wouldn't think it, but I considered Prince as a possible threat there given how completely inflated I think Sub-Zero was last year. Hopefully he doesn't job to Gordon in Round 2.



TuRtLe
~~~
75/100 in the contest. Next pick: Kratos > DK
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/28/2007 8:11:01 PM | message detail
The Back Factor did not hurt Liquid Snake so your theory is busted BT. Of course, all your theories about OMG ZERO IS TEH SUPAR POWERFUL were bad to begin with.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/28/2007 8:13:25 PM | message detail
That makes me feel a bit better about Subby. Most wouldn't think it, but I considered Prince as a possible threat there given how completely inflated I think Sub-Zero was last year. Hopefully he doesn't job to Gordon in Round 2.


Sub Zero lose to Gordon?


Would you honestly take Gordon to beat Master Chief last year?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 8:17:11 PM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 27 – Nightmare vs. Rayman vs. Solid Snake vs. Vyse

Moltar’s Analysis

Nightmare
Game/Series Known From: Soul Calibur

After years of nomming him, he finally gets in!

Rayman
Game/Series Known From: Rayman

Ahh Rayman. Now this was one platformer that I dug.

Snake
Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid
Seed in 2002: 2
Seed in 2003: 1
Seed in 2004: 2
Seed in 2005: 1
Seed in 2006: 1
Lost in 2002 to Crono in the Elite 8
Lost in 2003 to Mega Man in the Elite 8
Lost in 2004 to Mega Man in the Elite 8
Lost in 2005 to Mario in the Final 4
Lost in 2006 to Samus in the Finals

Snake’s here and he means business.

Vyse
Game/Series Known From: Skies of Arcadia
Seed in 2003: 11
Seed in 2004: 8
Seed in 2005: 6
Lost in 2003 to Donkey Kong in Round 1
Lost in 2004 to Cloud in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Tifa in Round 1

Vyse is back, break out the streamers!

It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Noble Nine character in action. This time around, it’s Snake, and you better believe he’s dominating this group.

The battle for second is once again fierce. Nightmare, Rayman and Vyse are all gunning for it, but which one moves on? Well, I’m going to eliminate Rayman first. Never seen any sign of GameFAQs caring for him, and I can’t see him getting much love in this match.

So between Nightmare and Vyse, both have good chances of moving on. Vyse has experience, even though it isn’t good experience. His poor performances gave us a term that we loved to use, VFL, or Vyse Fodder Line. Not to get much into it, but basically, if a character is stronger than Vyse in the stats (20% on 2003 Link), then they get the label “low midcarder”. Fall below it, you’re fodder. Where does Nightmare fall? I believe he’s going to be above that line. He’s seen as the face of Soul Calibur, and it’s a pretty well-liked series on GameFAQs.

Yep, I’m not going to take the easy way out and say I picked Nightmare because he’s one of my favorites. I’m going to say he’s plain stronger than Vyse. Sure, this format is different than one on one, and Vyse does have a dedicated following, but Nightmare is a popular character from a stronger series. He does stand the chance of being hurt by Snake if the Series Contest is a sign, but I still think he’ll be able to get through.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Snake > Nightmare > Vyse > Rayman

Moltar’s Prediction is: Snake: 54% - Nightmare: 20% - Vyse: 16% - Rayman: 10%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

Unless Nightmare ends up being 100% garbage, Snake > Nightmare > Vyse > Rayman is one of the easiest calls in the first round. Snake should be well ahead of everyone else, with the other three being very far behind but far apart from one another to render the match boring as all hell.

The only question here is whether Vyse can steal second place away from Nightmare, but I don't think he will. I think Nightmare is stronger than Ivy, who would likely kill Vyse heads-up. Barring weird SFF, Nightmare has this.

Ulti's Prediction:

Snake [65.00%]
Nightmare [21.00%]
Vyse [10.00%]
Rayman [4.00%]



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Solid Snake – 54%
Nightmare – 19%
Vyse – 16%
Rayman – 11%


Pretty boring match we’ve got here, I think. After MGS’s impressive first round, Snake is primed to dominate this pretty easy. Considering that he’s by far the strongest the series has to offer, he should have a shot at exceeding the percentage I gave him. Even if he’s come down to earth after last year, the format should help him get where he needs to be. It wouldn’t be too surprising if he were to outdo Sephiroth’s percentage by a bit.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 8:17:27 PM | message detail
Second place is up for grabs here, but I’m thinking it’s going to be one of those close-but-not-so-close matches. I went back and forth on this one for a while when I was making my bracket, and ended up choosing Vyse, but Nightmare just seems like the safer pick on this one. Fighting game characters have been doing great so far and Nightmare by all means should keep that up. He’s got the hardcore fighting fans and casuals alike.

Vyse shouldn’t be too far off, though. Under these circumstances, I might normally side with the cult RPG character simply because they’re bound to have a group that’s unwavering in their support, but I think the fighting game fans might just be up there. He isn’t going to get killed, but I have hard time seeing him beating Nightmare, regardless of Snake’s presence here. I’m not one to buy into Snake “stealing” Nightmare’s “badass” vote.

Oh, and, uh, Rayman kinda sits back in list. Man, this division is ass.

Bracket: Solid Snake > Vyse
Vote: SNAAAAKE



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Finally. After four weeks of making us wait, the defending Male Bracket Champion is about to take center stage. Solid Snake had an absolutely astounding 2006, elevating himself from the one Noble 9er in most danger of dropping the ball to the exclusive club's sixth strongest member. This year, gaming's premier badass looks to build on that momentum all the way into the Final 4. In his path stand... three chumps. Prepare for one of the first round's most dominating performances!

I fully expect Snake to grab over 50% of the votes cast, which mean his three opponents will be on crumb collecting duty. Those opponents are Soul Calibur's Nightmare, Rayman, and Vyse from Skies of Arcadia. We can eliminate one of these pitiful souls immediately - Rayman. Not only does he have no fanbase, but he's also French. Yeah, see you never, frog eater.

The big story surrounding this match, other than the sheer pwnsauce of Snake running circles around these clowns, is the battle for second between Nightmare and Vyse. It was, actually, one of the first round's more debated choices. The vast majority is backing Nightmare, while I'm being all rebellious and taking Vyse. Let me explain why I think this upset pick was a good one to take.

Personally, I'm still a bit confused with regards to Nightmare's perceived popularity. I don't think being a main character in Soul Calibur is enough. I don't think being a character in any fighting game after the genre's golden era is enough. Street Fighter. Mortal Kombat. Then the fighting genre died, and the new characters will never achieve the popularity their early 1990's brothers shared. This includes Soul Calibur, Tekken, Virtua fighter, and the rest. Jin Kazama or Ryu? Nightmare or Sub-Zero? Please, it's no contest.

However, Nightmare has a secret weapon, and that weapon is his instant appeal to voters. He's supposed to have a badass look that will instantly draw voters to his little clicky circle. His name is supposed to draw votes. It all sounds rather cool, but is it true? I wouldn't write it off as silly, heck no, but in a match against Solid Snake (let me reiterate: gaming's premier badass), it might not help the character in question as much. Also, check his picture, yo. He doesn't look cool at all, and I've heard he looks unrecognizable. Will his name be enough? I have my doubts, especially with Snake slurping votes like Fatman.

Nightmare's main competitor, Vyse, is nothing special, but he's not terribly weak. He has a fanbase, and judging by the pictures, he comes into this match looking more appealing than the Soul Calibur star. I think that'll be just enough to squeeze by, but I could be completely wrong. Let's, uh, hope I'm not.

Solid Snake - 56%
Vyse - 18%
Nightmare - 17%
Rayman - 9%
Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 8:18:33 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

Hmm so we've got an easy match here, or at least I think so. I guess there are reasons for debate but I'm not buying into them. I'm curious to see how well Snake holds up considering all of the MGS characters have done so well up to this point.

So the opponents for Snake... first Rayman... I don't know how that thing got in here. Screw it. I will ignore it for the rest of the write-up.

Vyse I might take a little more seriously. He was the once prestigious owner of the fodder line, after all! And he's got the uh... devoted fanbase backing him, as small as it may be!

But Nightmare I think has the best potential here. To put things in perspective Ivy outdid Vyse against Tifa. Nightmare's definitely stronger than Ivy. Now you might think Vyse had reason to do crappier than expected against Tifa, or he might hold up better... but I don't think so. Not enough to be a threat.

Lopen's Prediction:
Solid Snake - 51.01%
Nightmare - 23.34%
Vyse - 17.35%
Other thing - 8.30%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

The moment we've (read: me) all been waiting for...

Nightmare

Considered by many to be the fan-favorite of Soul Calibur. I'm not completely sold, but if he can match Ivy's position or surpass it he should have a good shot at taking second in this match.

Rayman

A niche 3D platformer character... uh oh. Rayman's games have been received well and he's even got a spot on the Wii, but - well, Ratchet has all that and more going for him and we've seen what he is. Rayman will... be weak.

SOLID SNAKE

Slayer of Sephiroth.

He who transcends the barriers between companies.

The star of the 2006 contest.

The man who makes the impossible possible.

Solid Snake is BACK, fresh off his 2006 run of a lifetime, and ready to prove himself once again in the most unpredictable bracket yet. Snake stands in a position unfamiliar to him - one that he hasn't enjoyed since 2002, actually - he's favored to make the finals. And it's hard to argue against it! Snake is the most seasoned character here in this format, having used it and his hardcore fanbase to upset Sephiroth in the Battle Royale. And seeing how everything else MGS has performed, and with more exposure and hype for MGS4 and SSBB (seriously, did you *see* Snake's update!?), Snake is looking to turn heads again this season. Though considering his predictable path, he couldn't do much less than pose a threat to Cloud or Link if he wanted to do that...

Vyse

The Unimpressive, indeed. Vyse has the dubious distinction of being the most disappointing character this board has ever hyped to me (and I don't disappoint easily). Once considered a great fodder line, his killing at the hands of Tifa has left his status a little up in the air. Will his supposedly hardcore fanbase be enough to overcome his aging and perhaps indirect weakness compared to Nightmare? There's a good chance he goes through... but seriously people, I'm not picking Vyse.

...so, uh, yeah, Snake wins. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR YOU HEATHENS, but I guess we have to analyze second as well. Bah... who would vote these three chumps over Snake? I almost want to go with Vyse thinking of that, but I feel Nightmare is the best choice here - he's untested, and may be a relative flop (he could easily lose to Ivy, for instance), but he's a much more 'casual' character than Vyse is, and those have performed rather well this contest. Although... will that hold up in the face of the casual champion, Snake? Um... well, we can only hope!

Karma Hunter's Vote: SOLID ****ING SNAKE MOTHER****ER GODDAMN
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Solid Snake with 65%, Nightmare with 15%, Vyse with 11%, Rayman with 9%

...what?
Master Moltar | Posted 9/28/2007 8:19:01 PM | message detail
Upset Probability: 50%

I really fear Vyse here, mostly because Soul Calibur has proven to be an overrated 'force' before, and its characters don't seem to be nearly as visible as the game (Ivy is an exception - she's EVERYWHERE, for obvious reasons). And after seeing what has happened in this format... I can't count out Rayman completely, especially considering how weak his competition could be. Though I really should...



Transience’s Analysis

Vyse/Nightmare was debated a good amount pre-contest. Snake was going to get a huge chunk of votes and Vyse's fanbase is more dedicated than Nightmare's, so people thought he'd take second here. plus, people have been on the "Nightmare will definitely bomb" train for a while now.

since then? I've become very confident in Nightmare. obvious favourites are not getting huge percentages like we expected. cult RPG characters are doing worse than expected in a lot of cases. Vyse also seems like he's becoming less relevant by the day. I'm not even sure he'd beat Laharl in a rematch.. maybe I'm just not feeling him because I've never played his game, never see his game mentioned and got snubbed in 2k6? I don't know, but I don't have a lot of hope for him. plus, fighting game characters have been impressing left and right in this format and while Nightmare isn't nearly as iconic as the Ryus and Scorpions of the world, he should do just fine.

dunno what to think or say about Rayman -- he should bomb, but who knows?

Tifa quadded Vyse
Nightmare should get more v. Snake
Karma Hunter cheers

transience's prediction: Snake with 55.65%, Nightmare with 21.56%, Vyse with 14.32%, Rayman with 8.47%



Crew Consensus: Snake > Nightmare is what we say.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/28/2007 8:42:25 PM | message detail
You know, considering this fourpack is weaker than Mega Man's, I can see Snake pushing for high 50's. But I just got to thinking, what if Snake's dropped again since his cinderella run last year? Probably not to 2k5 levels, but could he have dropped enough for Sonic to beat him out?

TuRtLe
~~~
75/100 in the contest. Next pick: Kratos > DK
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/28/2007 8:43:51 PM | message detail
So yeah, people, tomorrow is my birthday party. Vyse is my favorite character. I would like my present to be Vyse dominating for the first 5 or so seconds, please.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/28/2007 8:44:29 PM | message detail
Based on how MGS characters have been preforming thus far, I think it's highly unlikely Snake experienced anything but a boost.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 73/100; Oracle - 28th
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