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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 502

transience | Posted 9/27/2007 9:40:58 PM | message detail
Kratos has only been in two matches. this will be his first win.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 9:42:18 PM | message detail
Kratos has only had two matches -- one against Alucard (55/45), and then Ryu (57/42). So no, we haven't seen him up against one yet. But it's a very safe bet that his day vote is monstrous as opposed to being rather tame. Kratos isn't too far removed from the type of guys we've seen with dominate day votes.

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:42:55 PM | message detail
let's mosey
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 73/100; Oracle - 28th
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 9:44:18 PM | message detail
speaking of the mosey -- cloud > link believe

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let's mosey
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/27/2007 9:45:51 PM | message detail
hm is hochiminh confirmed
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Gaddswell | Posted 9/27/2007 9:47:12 PM | message detail
Speaking of hochiminh, did he return yet? It's past 5 days since he lost his bet.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 9:47:35 PM | message detail
exposed


i'm #1

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:48:17 PM | message detail
lol cloud
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 73/100; Oracle - 28th
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 9:51:09 PM | message detail
I can't get over how incredibly consistent this match is.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:53:08 PM | message detail
It was more of a rhetorical question. I'm just saying that after all the batty stuff we've seen in this contest, it shouldn't be assumed that he'll crush his competition with it, especially since he's only gone up against terrible day vote guys. Will he win it? Probably, but I'm not sure how decisive it will be.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 9:55:52 PM | message detail
I hope this stays consistant, except with DK stealing a small part of Kratos' vote.

Me and EC have a nice rivalry going in the oracle, considering we're both missing 2 matches.

TuRtLe
~~~
75/100 in the contest. Next pick: Kratos > DK
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/27/2007 9:56:18 PM | message detail
Is Kirby > Kratos next round a stupid pick. >.> Not that I should care about my bracket anymore. I'm 14 points back of Dealer right now. >.<
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ Final Fantasy VII Remake. Believe.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 9:58:31 PM | message detail
It all depends how you see it. It seems as though L-block hurt Kirby there, since Hale and Laharl seem to have performed to expectations. I'd consider Kratos > Kirby straight up, but with 2 characters leeching, I have to say Kratos has the advantage there.

TuRtLe
~~~
75/100 in the contest. Next pick: Kratos > DK
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:58:46 PM | message detail
It's looking very unlikely.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2007 10:01:35 PM | message detail
Unless God of War II gave Kratos one heck of a nice boost, there's no way I'd take him against Kirby. He's got 43% on Ryu under his belt. Not bad by any means, but Rikku outdid that the prior year. Kratos is an up-and-comer, but 1v1 against Kirby? No way.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 10:04:42 PM | message detail
I'd pick Kratos over Kirby heads-up. not when Snake and Riku are joining him, though.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 10:04:56 PM | message detail
2k5 Ryu was an anomaly though. And I'd take 2k6 Ryu over 2k6 Kirby at least 55-45.

TuRtLe
~~~
75/100 in the contest. Next pick: Kratos > DK
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2007 10:06:02 PM | message detail
I'd pick Kratos over Kirby heads-up. not when Snake and Riku are joining him, though.

Last year's Kratos, or are you assuming the GoWII boost covers it?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/27/2007 10:07:42 PM | message detail
Boost. I don't take Kratos > Kirby last year.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 10:08:31 PM | message detail
Kirby beats last year's Kratos... by a small amount. I dunno, let's check the ol' stats:

Kratos (2006c) VS Kirby (2006c)

Kratos has a strength of 27.65.
Kirby has a strength of 29.39.

Kirby wins with 52.96% of the vote!
A win of 6,574 with 111,037 total votes cast.

not that I trust these -- Kirby's probably underrated while Kratos is most likely overrated -- but it shows that it's not cut-and-dry. also, before you use Ryu, remember that he looked off in 2k5. I'd use that comparison with a grain of salt.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 10:21:04 PM | message detail
DK's really coming down hard now.. fortunately for him, Marth is too. NPH confirmed! go go Prince!
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2007 10:47:12 PM | message detail
2007-09-28 01:40:11 28.24% 37.14% 21.79% 12.83% 4418 5811 3409 2007 15645 1393 1009 1402
2007-09-28 01:35:12 28.23% 37.15% 21.83% 12.79% 4273 5622 3304 1936 15135 1349 969 1368
2007-09-28 01:30:12 28.21% 37.21% 21.86% 12.72% 4124 5439 3195 1859 14617 1315 929 1336

Whoa. Kratos wins two in a row with 44 votes over DK and DK wins two in a row with 40 over Marth.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 10:56:17 PM | message detail
of all the guys to take the night.. The Prince? I'd think he'd be a board vote guy more than a night guy.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Lopen | Posted 9/27/2007 11:00:31 PM | message detail
Wow, this is almost the most boring percentage spread possible. Very close to the 40-30-20-10, no potential battles for any position.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Keno316 | Posted 9/27/2007 11:13:53 PM | message detail
Hahaha...Oh wow. Prince! Impressive.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
transience | Posted 9/27/2007 11:34:28 PM | message detail
awesome, the prince just stalled Marth. epic comeback coming!
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Gaddswell | Posted 9/27/2007 11:54:41 PM | message detail
Prince with a 16.33% update!
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Finally a damn bracket!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/27/2007 11:57:35 PM | message detail
16% updates don't mean much when they're sandwiched by 11% updats :(
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 1:10:48 AM | message detail
Time .| Donkey | Kratos ..| Marth ....| Prince
01:00 | 28.47% | 36.94% | 22.14% | 12.45%
02:00 | 27.44% | 37.98% | 20.94% | 13.64%
03:00 | 28.80% | 39.22% | 18.85% | 13.13%
04:00 | 28.45% | 39.51% | 19.43% | 12.61%

Pretty consistent. Kratos sucked in the opening hour at the expense of Marth doing well. Pretty much the same from there on out.

Although Prince of all Cosmos starting to do worse approaching the night had me a big confused. I don't know if he'll do better in the next hour of what, I had pegged him for a night vote kind of guy
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 9/28/2007 1:23:51 AM | message detail
I know Kratos has faced some board vote legends, but I'm starting to wonder if he's like FF7 or something. seems weird.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Haste_2 | Posted 9/28/2007 1:26:05 AM | message detail
Kratos has nearly 40% in the night... that's kinda scary.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
transience | Posted 9/28/2007 1:30:33 AM | message detail
Kratos might not end up far off from Kirby's percentage.. and Kirby faced a block, a Disgaea character and a PS3 guy.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 1:31:03 AM | message detail
DK with the 3 vote cut!
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Finally a damn bracket!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 1:32:35 AM | message detail
Whoever improves with the 4-5 hour the most generally loses the day vote.

And Donkey Kong has averaged 31.6% in the past half hour compared to his previous ~28.5 average.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 1:33:26 AM | message detail
And Kratos responds with his biggest update yet. 45.41% in the middle of the night.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 1:37:41 AM | message detail
Haha. If that 4-5 trend actually holds true in this match then Marth will get the biggest jump with the day vote. Followed by.... Prince of All Cosmos.

Seems implausible to me so I'll just ignore that >_> <_<
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 1:38:27 AM | message detail
Ok, Kratos is getting kinda scary here with that 46.3% update.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/28/2007 1:40:50 AM | message detail
Aw yeah, gogogo Kratos.
Snake > Kratos in round 3. Believe.
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A pro isn't someone who sacrifices himself for his job. That's just a fool. - Reno, FFVII
transience | Posted 9/28/2007 1:41:05 AM | message detail
the margin between these three guys is nearly the same here. neat.

I want to see what Marth can do to DK in the daytime. pretty sure DK's past his point of no return (which might be crazier than most guys given who he is), but I wonder if Marth can rip votes off his lead. pure Smash characters are usually day vote gods (and awful at night).
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2007 1:43:36 AM | message detail
Ehhhhh. Kratos coming close to Kirby's %? Not seein it. Not only was Kirby doing better at this point but he was still recovering from a ridiculous L-Block Power Hour so he was climbing faster.

Kratos will be lucky to break 40% in this one. Hey you know what?

BOLD PREDICTION: Kratos loses the day vote! ... to Marth... not the ape... but regardless!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 1:48:52 AM | message detail
Yeah... I do expect Kratos to lose the day vote to Marth. Well, maybe not lose so much as just not do as well with it. I'd be pretty shocked if that wasn't the case since that would mean Marth would probably end with under 18% Maybe even 17%
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Lopen | Posted 9/28/2007 1:52:16 AM | message detail
Well yeah, obviously I'm not implying Kratos starts losing votes to Marth in the day, I just think his % will drop pretty significantly.

... though that'd be awesome if he did. 18% day->night jump for Marth aw yeah!

Well hey, Master Chief did it.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 1:52:36 AM | message detail
Ouch. Marth is doing painfully bad this hour
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 1:55:25 AM | message detail
So, can we assume Marth = Ness in terms of trends? Ness was doing horribly at this time as well.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
HaRRicH | Posted 9/28/2007 1:55:37 AM | message detail
DK VS L-Block
Marth VS Laharl
PoaC VS Nathan Hale

Which side wins those matches? It's hard to argue against the idea that Kratos has the notably tougher four-pack. Granted, the match isn't over yet and Kratos could land higher/lower than where he is right now...but given that Kirby/DK will be fighting against one-another and such, this is just fine for Kratos. He's in great contention for first next round and in good contention for advancing in Round Three if he can keep away from PS2-troubles from Snake and possibly/probably Riku.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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Lopen | Posted 9/28/2007 2:01:42 AM | message detail
Well, DK probably beats the L-Block 1v1, but the L-Block is probably more the nuisance in this format. In addition Marth and DK are probably splitting votes a bit bringing the value of DK and Marth down a little.

Yeah, Kratos has the tougher pack, but it isn't by that much. And he's still got a way to go to hit Kirby's %.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/28/2007 2:06:37 AM | message detail
Time .| Donkey | Kratos ..| Marth ....| Prince
01:00 | 28.47% | 36.94% | 22.14% | 12.45%
02:00 | 27.44% | 37.98% | 20.94% | 13.64%
03:00 | 28.80% | 39.22% | 18.85% | 13.13%
04:00 | 28.45% | 39.51% | 19.43% | 12.61%
05:00 | 31.01% | 41.19% | 16.08% | 11.71%


I'm going to go ahead and say that Kratos won't win the day vote, since averaging more than 41% after school lets out is scary
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 2:16:05 AM | message detail
What a nice round update that was. 40/30/18/12 exactly.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
transience | Posted 9/28/2007 2:25:58 AM | message detail
good stuff from my fellow stats topicers. I agree with Lopen that ol' L is the bigger "nuisance" in this format, especially since I consider DK to be at a disadvantage in this format.. as well as the fact that he's getting sucked by Marth. considering all that, I think DK is actually doing a fairly admirable job.

I could see Marth going up in the day bigtime, Kratos going up slightly, and DK/Prince taking the damage. that seems likely in my eyes. this 16% hour tells me Marth's in for a huge jump come day - either that or he's a 3-4 hour type of guy, and I just don't see any reason for that. I know we're Smash-obsessed here on board 8, but I think BRACKETS mean more to people. Marth won't be a master hand, but he'll probably get more votes than DK come schooltime. lookin' forward to the 7am hour.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Gaddswell | Posted 9/28/2007 2:29:56 AM | message detail
Marth seems to be recovering at this hour already whenever Kratos fails to get those 40+% updates.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
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