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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 502

Lopen | Posted 9/26/2007 11:20:59 PM | message detail
I see the four pack now... L-Block, Square Block, S/Z Block, Link.

Link is so screwed.




*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

RPguy's Hourly Poll Updates:
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
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Ask and you shall receive. Three at once! Whoop!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2007 11:22:36 PM | message detail
I-Block would OWN Link.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/26/2007 11:24:34 PM | message detail
Three topics? My options are limitless!
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2007 11:24:48 PM | message detail
I think the I block would be weak in comparison to the L. It's just too generic looking. S/Z might get anti-voted though, so I'm not saying the I is the weakest.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2007 11:27:56 PM | message detail
Can we just agree that the square-block sucks for not being versatile, at least?

Really, it's like one fat pixel.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2007 11:29:37 PM | message detail
RPGuy's link is finally fixed!

By the way, TWO topics early!~
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Finally a damn bracket!
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Mega Mana | Posted 9/26/2007 11:32:02 PM | message detail
Screw versatility, the square block is wonderful for building up the sides!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2007 11:33:01 PM | message detail
Oh, great, just what I need -- a more narrow space to work with in the middle!
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
creativename | Posted 9/26/2007 11:33:36 PM | message detail
The square block is great. Don't hate on the square block.

I remembering people referring to the I-block as the "Straight Piece".
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2007 11:35:35 PM | message detail
Damn straight, Mana. The S/Z block has no use.

L > T > I > Square > S/Z is how it'd be, methinks.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Crimson Dragoon | Posted 9/27/2007 7:30:16 AM | message detail
Heh. Part 500 isn't even over yet, and Part 501 may even beat it to closing. lol?
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~FFDragon. (at Work !!) The Cream of Resident Evil Fanboyism.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2007 7:37:13 AM | message detail
L-Block has the best name of all of the blocks, which probably helps it out a little.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 9:36:01 AM | message detail
I guess this means we aren't listening to the 450 rule?

In that case I'm going to make the next 10 Stats Topics <_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 9:40:52 AM | message detail
Better get started then before somebody beats you to them!
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Lopen | Posted 9/27/2007 4:09:22 PM | message detail
I support the 450 rule, actually. It makes sense to me. I just disobeyed the 450 rule because I thought it'd be funny to have three out at once and the others were at 400 so it wasn't that ludicrous.

... this is only like... my second (first maybe?) topic ever! I'm entitled to bend the rules!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 4:13:24 PM | message detail
I prefer "the long piece", myself. L block is the only name that's universally agreed on... except for square block, but who the hell likes that punk.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 6:00:02 PM | message detail
Square block messes up all my plans!
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Keno316 | Posted 9/27/2007 6:00:03 PM | message detail
So...this the official one?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 6:05:26 PM | message detail
Well, there's only one, so...why not use it?
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Keno316 | Posted 9/27/2007 6:33:36 PM | message detail
So...what if we get a surprise and Sprite Round next round?


L-Block taking first in his 4pack?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 6:34:47 PM | message detail
Kirby's sprite is awesome too so 2nd place is his best bet.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2007 6:37:00 PM | message detail
Catching up and just now noticing this...

Like I said earlier, the elitism is astonishing...

So wait, if you speak your mind about not liking something, you're an elitist. If you instead avoid it and let people have their fun, you're... an elitist as well?
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2007 6:43:32 PM | message detail
Match XXVI: Donkey Kong vs Kratos vs Marth vs Prince of All Cosmos

Information

Name: Donkey Kong
Game/Series From: Donkey Kong series
Past Contests: CB2k2, CB2k3, CB2k4, CB2k5
Wins: Bub (2k2), Aya Brea (2k2), Vyse (2k3), Sam Fisher (2k5)
Losses: Mario (2k2), Tommy Vercetti (2k3), Vivi (2k4), Master Chief (2k5)

Name: Kratos
Game/Series From: God of War
Past Contests: CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: None
Losses: Alucard (2k5), Ryu (2k6)

Name: Marth
Game/Series From: Fire Emblem
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Name: Prince of All Cosmos
Game/Series From: Katamari Damacy
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Analysis

Well this is interesting we have a character that’s hyped to have gotten much stronger than last year, a chocker, a character that gets 90% of his support from SSBM and a character that was from a game that was popular on board 8. This could be an interesting match or it could one of those 40/30/20/10 types of match.

Kratos is the favorite at winning this match, not only was he slightly stronger than DK last year (by using MC), but this year he has God of War 2 on his side. GoW2 may not be as popular as the first game, but considering that his main competition barely got anything and has a leech taking away his votes it could be enough to take the win without too much trouble.

Donkey Kong has been known for chocking on matches this could mean he could lead against Kratos and end up losing, end up losing to Marth or even do some whacky thing next round. Using 2k6 MC DK barely loses to Kratos, but with the new God of War game this probably won’t matter. The only new thing DK has gotten is being announced for SSBB and since he has been in previous installments I don’t think it’ll do much for him. There is one way I can see DK doing well here is if his 2k5 value was correct. Master Chief was able to destroy Yuna; I know most of it has to be from Halo 3 coming out just a few days after the match, but even if you were to use MC’s 2k5 value he still did much better than expected. I know it is a long shot, but that is the only way I can see DK getting first.

Marth, like Ness and Captain Falcon gets most of his strength from SSBM. Marth’s games were only released in Japan and the only thing he can do her is stopping DK from attempting to take first. Marth may be used more often than Donkey Kong in Smash, but as a Nintendo character Donkey Kong is the most popular one. Marth should give us an idea on how Ike will perform later in the round, but with DK here I’m not sure how creditable it’ll be.

The Prince of All Cosmos is the character you control in Katamari Damacy whether he is stronger than the King is still up for debate, but despite getting more games since the last release I don’t think the series is as strong as it used to be. KD like many games was popular when it was released but then became quickly forgotten. The only way I see the Prince avoiding last is if DK SFF Marth badly.

My bracket has DK > Kratos, but DK would really have to be lucky to pull off the win. Hopefully he’ll keep it close against Kratos since I have Kratos > DK next round. DK seems like the type of Nintendo character that doesn’t SFF things badly so I’m also giving Marth the win over the Prince.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Donkey Kong > Kratos

charmander6000’s Prediction: Kratos - 37.26%, Donkey Kong - 33.73%, Marth - 19.63%, Prince of All Cosmos - 9.38%

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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 25: Kirby > Laharl Points: 70/96
swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 6:44:15 PM | message detail
a chocker, lol. That's funny.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/27/2007 6:46:13 PM | message detail
I haven't marked anyone (because it's lame), but the 450 rule is the best plan ._.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
Lopen | Posted 9/27/2007 6:47:33 PM | message detail
*Kicks Keno in the gut*

Why wouldn't it be the "official one?" Jerk.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
8976201 | Posted 9/27/2007 6:50:48 PM | message detail
Balthier beats Ada next round. Why? FFT for the PSP. Balthier is in that game
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/27/2007 6:55:21 PM | message detail
What's Balthier's role in that game? If it's anything like Cloud's in the original FFT it shouldn't really do a damn thing - and as for affecting next round's match, he's going to have to be the main character for me to really take that game seriously.

Err... is he? <_<
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 6:56:18 PM | message detail
yeah, that's basically his role.
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8976201 | Posted 9/27/2007 6:57:34 PM | message detail
You know, Ada isn't that much far ahead and I'm willing to bet Balthier has more hardcore fans. I expect Dante, a casual character to strip Ada of her votes. Ada doesn't have a large fanbase, we saw that against Samus. But most of the site knows who she is, we saw that against Jade.
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 6:58:36 PM | message detail
He's more prominent and less out of the way than Cloud, but he doesn't play any role in the main storyline, no. Think you get him fairly earlier, though.

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let's mosey
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 6:59:57 PM | message detail
have they actually re-written the story to throw Balthier into it? or is it some kind of sidequest
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trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 7:00:16 PM | message detail
Mustadio renamed to Balthier aw yeah
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/27/2007 7:04:00 PM | message detail
Oh, Balthier definitely has a *chance* next round, and it's better than a lot of people give him credit for (and all-in-all I'd like him to progress not only out of favoritism, but to shut down any Pikachu to Round 4 speculation should the rat make it that far <.<). But it's nowhere near the near-lock it used to be, and I have a hard time seeing the PSP FFT do anything except bring in a small, likely statistically insignificant influx of voters that will more likely vote for Balthier as opposed to Ada.
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 7:05:02 PM | message detail
I'm not too sure, but...!

3.4 New Playable Character -- Balthier

Branded as a heretic, Balthier from FFXII is in search of treasure. All that is known of his role in the story is that he joins Ramza during his quest in Ch. 4 (read on to find out how to find him). He is given the job title "Sky Pirate," and will have Target abilities (all the "Aim" abilities Mustadio has, all the Thief abilities, and his own unique multi-hitting attack).

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let's mosey
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/27/2007 7:06:13 PM | message detail
It's a sidequest. You take on a proposition, win a fight and get Balthier. He's like any other bonus character in FFT.

~*ST*~
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/27/2007 7:06:49 PM | message detail
Chapter 4 is the last chapter of the game, as I recall.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
ZFS | Posted 9/27/2007 7:09:41 PM | message detail
Yeah. I thought he appeared earlier, but it's toward the end.

But I wouldn't expect this to do anything for him either way.

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 7:28:46 PM | message detail
Dark horse #5 coming up tonight. I've felt good about 3 of them so far, and Zero still has a chance to impress next round, so hopefully Kratos can reallly take it to DK.

TuRtLe
~~~
71/96 in the contest. Next pick: Kirby > L-Block
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 7:29:38 PM | message detail
Did you just suggest that Kratos is a dark horse?
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FFDragon | Posted 9/27/2007 7:32:39 PM | message detail
Kratos is the Guru favorite at least with 64% of the brackets backing him for first.

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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
therealmnm | Posted 9/27/2007 7:48:12 PM | message detail
Ada doesn't have a large fanbase, we saw that against Samus. But most of the site knows who she is, we saw that against Jade.

Uh, but Ada does have a large fanbase among RE fans. Just because she didn't do well against Samus doesn't mean she isn't liked. The RE fanbase just doesn't like her better than Samus. Ada Wong isn't a character that is generally known by the masses. She's not that prominent in the series. She's just built up a core following among the RE fanbase who all like her, but not enough to vote her over anybody. But that doesn't mean she will fold the minute anyone with some strength steps in. At least that's what I get from the Resident Evil fanbase. She certainly doesn't have widespread recognition though.
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/27/2007 7:54:33 PM | message detail
If Black Turtle is taking someone out of his division, it's a Dark Horse! Clearly!

btw my Dark Horse is Snake in the finals let's hope that pans out
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Samus 2K5 is horribly underrated, and is indirectly stronger than Mario. KHF sucks and never existed either, much like my package.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 7:58:11 PM | message detail
Division 7: Round 1 - Match 26 – Donkey Kong vs. Kratos vs. Marth vs. Prince of all Cosmos

Moltar’s Analysis

DK
Game/Series Known From: Donkey Kong
Seed in 2002: 4
Seed in 2003: 6
Seed in 2004: 10
Seed in 2005: 4
Lost in 2002 to Mario in Round 3
Lost in 2003 to Vercetti in Round 2
Lost in 2004 to Vivi in Round 1
Lost in 2005 to Master Chief in Round 2

The fun to watch Kong returns.

Kratos
Game/Series Known From: God of War
Seed in 2005: 3
Seed in 2006: 3
Lost in 2005 to Alucard in Round 1
Lost in 2006 to Ryu in Round 1

Will he finally make it out of Round 1?

Marth
Game/Series Known From: Fire Emblem

Fire Emblem? I think you mean Super Smash Bros: Melee.

Prince of all Cosmos
Game/Series Known From: Katamari Damacy

Perhaps the easiest to call match we’ve had in a while. There’s looking to be a clear first and clear second here. Still, always have to expect the unexpected in this format. Any sort of crazy crap can happen (see Division 6 darn you to heck).

First up, we’ll chat about the Prince. King was in the Contest two years ago and got killed by Tidus. That was Tidus’s last first place since then, so you can laugh at him. Prince isn’t going to amount to much, though he may be stronger than King due to him being the one you play as (though King is more memorable).

Then there’s Marth. He looking nice to take third, but SSBFEAR is running wild thanks to previous matches. Yeah, DK is in Smash too, but only losers play as him. All of the serious SSB:M players who are hardcore awesome rox play as Marth, who is TOP IN THE ALMIGHTY TEARS. I mean, have you seen the SSB:M Commandments? “Thou shalt only play as Marth or Fox” is just as important as, “Thou shalt not play with the devil’s items” and “Thou shalt only play on the Lord’s stage, Final Destination.”

I can’t even remember what I was talking about now, so let’s move on to the Top 2. Kratos vs Donkey Kong. Last time we saw these two, Kratos was getting screwed over by the man by facing one of the few non-Noble Nine non-elites that could beat him, and DK gave MC a win. Well, God of War fans finally rejoice, because Kratos finally got a good draw. DK shouldn’t prove to be any trouble for him. In fact, he’ll be having enough trouble splitting votes with Marth.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Kratos > DK > Marth > Prince

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kratos: 39% - DK: 27% - Marth: 22% - Prince: 12%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

If ever there was a match to see how much strength an SSBM avatar has, this is that match. No one is going to vote for "Mars" based off of his crap performance in the original, Japan-only Fire Emblem title.

That said, I don't think Marth has enough in him to overcome DK in this match. And since Kratos is a lock for top two, Marth being unable to overtake DK renders him the odd one out. Prince of All Cosmos getting through would be nice, but the King's performance back in 2005 gives me no faith in the little guy.

As for who takes first place between Kratos and DK, stats be damned. Kratos has been on the verge of a breakthrough match, and I think this will be that match for him. I don't think DK can hold off one of the most popular casual characters on GameFAQs. We've already seen what Master Chief can do, for a bad comparison.

Ulti's Prediction:

Kratos [35.00%]
Donkey Kong [28.00%]
Marth [21.00%]
Prince [16.00%]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 7:58:34 PM | message detail
Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Kratos – 43%
Donkey Kong – 25%
Marth – 20%
Prince of All Cosmos – 12%


We’re finally going to get see Kratos win a match here. Despite being one of the fastest growing characters in the past few years, Kratos has always gotten a pretty draw. He lost his first match to Alucard 55/45, then the following year lost to Ryu 57/42 -- and impressive jump to say the least. This year, with God of War II under his belt, Kratos should come out kicking some ass.

The competition here is pretty ideal for him, too. With two Nintendo characters to split vote, and one notorious for choking, he’s going have an easy time dominating this match. While this match may not tell us anything about Kratos’ chances later, this should be the first win on the way to the Division Finals.

There have been some rumblings the past couple of days about Marth having a shot at beating DK out here, but I doubt it. This site may love SSBM more than would be deemed healthy, but when that’s all he’s got going for him, I can’t see him beating out someone like DK, even if the ape does suck. The only thing I’d be worried about here is the fact that Kong has a tendency to choke when he shouldn’t, and the fact that this format certainly can’t be doing him any favors. But he should be fine, I think.

This match isn’t about the two Nintendo losers, though -- this is all Kratos, baby!

Bracket: Kratos > Donkey Kong
Vote: Kratos



Yoblazer’s Analysis

AAAARRREEEEEEEEEEES! You promised me real competition! What is this monkey doing here!

Uhh... it's Donkey Kong. He almost beat Master Chief?

AAAARRREEEEEEEEEEES!

Fine, here's a swordsman. He might be weaker than the monkey, though.

AAAARRREEEEEEEEEEES!

OK, jeez! Here's a prince of the entire cosmos!

*Prince of all Cosmos rolls in*

AAAARRREEEEEEEEEEES!

You really are an asshat, you know that, Kratos?

Not a bad way to lengthen an analysis I don't care to write much about, huh?! Kratos, star of the hit PS2 series, God of War, is easily the strongest entrant in this field, and he'll breeze into first place. After two very unfair draws in his first two years, Kratos has an excellent chance to avenge his 0-2 record in 2007. This first match will give us a fine indicator as to whether or not he deserves his heavily favored status over Kirby next round.

Actually, I believe that in a 1v1 match a couple of years ago, our walking contest ambulance case, Donkey Kong, might have given the Spartan warrior a good match. Sadly for him, those chances are long gone. Kratos received the very popular, critically acclaimed sequel to God of War earlier this year, so he should be stronger than ever. In addition, DK is sharing the poll with his Super Smash Bros. Melee compatriot, Marth. The top-tiered swordsman is one of the game's most popular characters (in the context of Melee only, of course), and he should hamper the ape a fair bit. Some claim that he can actually beat DK, and while I don't write such a result off, I would be pretty damn surprised to watch it go down. Then again, it's ****ing Donkey Kong. Expect a heart attack.

Kratos - 37%
Donkey Kong - 29%
Marth - 21%
Prince of All Cosmos - 13%



Lopen’s Analysis

First of all: How the hell did the Prince get in this contest and no King?
Second of all: How the hell can Donkey Kong win a match he's not favored in to begin with with Marth draining him?
Third of all: How the hell hasn't Marth been hyped more to win this?

With all this hellspeak you'd think Diablo was in the match. Or maybe Solid Snake. "What the hell."
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 8:00:09 PM | message detail
Anyway, I direct your attention primarily to hell #3. Marth being such a high tier popular character in SSBM makes me wonder if he can't steal DK's support for the win. Now if you've been reading my write-ups, I downplayed Ness's Smash support... and Marth is a lot like Ness in that way, he's getting all his support from that game, basically. But, I think the fans of the game will be more loyal to him, just because he's so good in it. Ness doesn't have that luxury except for in the much less popular Super Smash Brothers.

Plus it's not like he's trying to fell Mario here, it's DK. DK is probably pretty low on the Nintendo pecking order... his (now ancient, so what) match with Mario sure supports it.

Now for all this hype I'm giving Marth, you'd think I picked him. Well no, I didn't pick him. DK seems the safer pick... but I could see the match being like Wario/Captain Falcon or worse. DK does not have a free ride here, not at all.

Lopen's prediction:
Kratos - 35.99%
Donkey Kong - 25.01%
Marth - 23.98%
Prince of all Cosmos - 15.02%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

We all live... in a post L-Block world...

Donkey Kong

The ultimate choke artist, Donkey Kong hopes to hit new heights of suckitude in this contest appearance by failing to reach the second round. Will he succeed? STAY TUNED

Kratos

The GOD. OF. WAR. - Kratos is fresh off one of the hottest hits this year has seen, and is perhaps the greatest rising star in the contest. Can he make it out of this division? We'll start to see the answers in this match.

Marth

Of SSBM fame, Marth has gone from a no-choice here to something of a sexy upset seeing how his SSB brethren have fared. Sure, he's got to contend with DK... but the good news is that it's DK.

The Prince of All Cosmos

The protagonist of Katamari Damacy, it's great to see the lil' guy in here... thing is, who nominated him more than the King!? >:O I DON'T CARE IF PRINCE COULD VERY WELL BE STRONGER YOU DO NOT QUESTION THE KING OF ALL COSMOS

...err, yeah. That out of the way, Prince has no chance *knock on wood*, and Kratos should blow away this competition considering his independence and the fact that he had a damn good shot at beating DK pre-GoW2. So it's down to a semi-choice between DK and Marth. On the one hand, DK is a solid midcarder, and Marth is basically riding the strength of SSBM alone. When you do that, you tend to end up with results like Ness (best case) or Captain Falcon (worst case). The good thing for Marth? He is one of THE fan-favorites of SSBM, he looks badass and has a sword (note: picture has not been seen at this time of writing, if Marth gets FE1 art he's so screwed), and just like Peach, you have to wonder - how many *fans* does DK have?

It's a tricky question, and no doubt DK is just raring to show us how bad he can bomb here. I have yet to call a DK match wrong, though (the last time I said that was when I picked Cloud > Link in 2k6 for what THAT is worth, augh), so I'll stick with him here. SOMEONE keeps getting DK in these things...

Karma Hunter's Vote: Kratos. He may be a paper-thin protagonist of a style-over-substance action game... but you do not go against the God. of. War.
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Kratos with 39%, Donkey Kong with 25%, Marth with 22%, The Prince of All Cosmos with 14%

I hate not overshooting here with Kratos considering my faith in him... but here goes.

Upset Prediction: 30%

...it's DK. There's a lot of stuff you could say all-around, but the ape has gotten ridiculous at this point. If he can't beat Marth no one will ever believe in him again (you'd think), but... that chance must be given, all the same.

um prove me wrong you bongo player you



Transience’s Analysis

aw yeah l-block
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 8:00:32 PM | message detail
this match looks easy at first glance - Kratos was already stronger than DK last year, and that was before GOW2, which sold a zillion copies. Kratos is looking to be at or around Dante levels this year, and is a real threat to come out of the division behind Snake. on top of that, DK is going to be held back by Marth.

but then I think about Donkey Kong, aka GameFAQs's Greatest Choker. DK seems to me that he'd get votes just for being known and slightly iconic, but he might have the weakest core audience out there. he hasn't had a new game of note in ten years and he never really had anybody caring about him in the first place. his Nintendo matches are fairly legendary - an 82/18 loss to Mario in 2002 (Servbot got like 33%, for comparison), an 87/13 loss to Zelda 1, and a classic day vote choke against friggin' Duck Hunt.

when it comes to fan-favourites, there is *no one* bigger than Marth.

oh, and Pit, a guy who is essentially a picture to most of GameFAQs, got 18% against Luigi. what happens when a guy people have actually PLAYED as, a guy with an appealing character design, goes up against a guy whose fanbase is pure apathy?

I'd consider Marth over Ness just based on appeal. he doesn't have the support outside of Smash, but damn, people like that dude. he's certainly more appealing than a guy like Ness or Falcon. Smash is all the rage right now -- you can chalk up my worries to "Smashfear" -- and Marth is pretty much the posterboy of such a thing. am I picking him to advance here? no. but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he did.

Marth v. Donkey Kong?
does anyone like DK?
time to find out, then!

transience's prediction: Kratos with 37.33%, Donkey Kong with 25.11%, Marth with 23.55%, Prince of all Kosmos with 14.01%

Guest’s Analysis - SensiShadeSlaye

Yo, SensiShadeSlaye here.

This is one of those matches I looked at and picked something, then when I went back and thought about I changed it around. Hopefully it won't come back to bite me like most of the other matches I ended up picking like that.

None of these guys are gonna end up making a huge dent in anyone's bracket, I think. We've got Kratos - the original badass god-slaying Spartan from the God of War duology that we all played and loved. And then we hated it because everyone else loved it. Kratos has shown up twice now...and got beaten twice now. The good news is that Kratos has done well enough on opponents he had no chance of beating to prove he ain't no slouch.

Donkey Kong's the same hulking ape with a coconut gun that fires in spurts that's been around since 2002...and been doing badly considering how old of a character the dude is. I mean, seriously, he's Mario's original villain. Come on. If you don't know who DK is, then crawl out of your little box and experience the world.

Marth is Fire Emblem's posterboy over in Japan, although but I doubt that's getting him any massive votes because da Japanese don't usually show their voting faces on American game sites...no idea why they wouldn't. The only reason Marth's in this is because of SSBM and the fact he was a good character in SSBM and everyone loved him or something.

And the King of all Cosmos? He got killed by Tidus a couple years ago, not even worth mentioning.

...What? Prince of all Cosmos? Not the King? Doesn't matter, he's last place anyway.

Now, despite the fact that Kratos has yet to win a match in these contests, and Donkey Kong has won himself a few,(Over such powerhouse characters as Sam Fisher, and Aya Brea no less!), it's pretty easy to see that Kratos is going to take down the big ape here.

Proof? Why do you want proof? Alright fine.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 8:01:20 PM | message detail
Kratos's two contest matches have been, like I said before, losses. Despite that, he's managed to impress. He got 45% on Alucard in 2005(with his only game being God of War), and then in 2006 he got 43% on Ryu, which was post GoW II. Alucard and Ryu, despite having seen better days, are bother capable midcarders(...I hate that phrase, one day I'm going to kill whoever I picked it up from.) that a lot of people would be happy to get in the 40's..on.

DK, on the other hand, seems to just love failing. Bub scored 38%(or maybe it was 28%, I really don't remember and don't care to look) on him. Bub. Bub from...what game now? Exactly. He nearly lost to Aya Brea. Vivi beat him with 56%, Sam Fisher got 35% on him. DK, despite being one of Nintendo's oldest characters, is simply not very strong. Why? Don't ask me, I don't speak for the GameFAQs masses.

Marth hasn't been in a contest before, but since his only strength is from Melee I think it's safe to say he's well below Kratos and below DK in strength levels. You can bet I'll be voting for him, though.

The Prince? Nobody cares about the Prince.

Now, I think it's a safe bet to say Kratos > DK > Marth > Prince.

Now, percentages. I don't like percentages very much, and I can almost guarantee if I entered the Oracle contest I'd be last, but I'll give it a shot.

Kratos[39.89%]
Donkey Kong[28.82]
Marth[19.22%]
Prince of All Cosmos[12.07%]



Crew Consensus: Kratos > DK is unanimous.
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/27/2007 8:14:06 PM | message detail
Careful gang; BT's backing a unanimous darkhorse!

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 8:14:52 PM | message detail
I'll just assume he's not that stupid - he probably means Kratos to round 4.
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