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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 501

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 9:39:29 AM | message detail

For what it's worth, CF was in both SSB and SSBM whereas Marth is only in SSBM, Marth is more liked in SSBM than CF in the SSB series, and I think CF can ride off of the F-Zero series more than Marth does off in the one or two FE games he's in.

Marth should be the definition of how much damage a playable character in SSBM can deliver.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:39:58 AM | message detail

Prince Marth doesn't have much of a chance tomorrow, but if anybody can blow it it's DK.

I just hope Marth doesn't get Dragon of Darkness and the Sword of Light artwork tomorrow. Mystery of the Emblem would probably work and Melee would be ideal, but he's so screwed if he gets FE1 art.
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Buzzup | Posted 9/27/2007 9:40:37 AM | message detail

Marth isn't that much more favored than CF in SSBM, everywhere I play, people love using Falcon.

Ed Bellis | Posted 9/27/2007 9:40:53 AM | message detail

I can't imagine Bacon giving Marth Fire Emblem art. He'll probably get his recognizable Melee pic.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 9:43:05 AM | message detail

Unrecognizable Marth? Bias!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 9:44:44 AM | message detail

He doesn't have to be a lot more favored, but there's next to no arguing that he is more favored. Tourney-people love him and amateurs enjoy him. Throw in that he's SSBM-only and will likely ride off of his FE games less than F-Zero will, and Marth would be the better peg for what SSBM can do than CF. I'm not even arguing Marth > CF, just that Marth's a better peg for see what being in SSBM can do for you.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:45:29 AM | message detail

Hmm he seems to change with overperforming flops and underperforming flops.

2k2: Barely beats Aya
2k3: Almost beats TV (he was super hyped that year)
2k4: Loses to Vivi badly
2k5: Almost beat MC
2k6: Misses contest (Considered to be one of the biggest snubs from 2k5)
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 9:47:50 AM | message detail

Don't forget DK's run in the Game Contest...so close, Duck Hunt...so close.....
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Acronym | Posted 9/27/2007 9:47:52 AM | message detail

I don't see how we can learn anything from Marth tomorrow, what with the Prince of All Cosmos taking around 90% of the vote and all.
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Buzzup | Posted 9/27/2007 9:48:32 AM | message detail

So this year should be a good year for DK, he'll probably have a close match with Kirby and L-block next round, but choke in the last hour and end up in last place.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 9:48:53 AM | message detail

I'm still convinced Captain Falcon would beat the utter crap out of Marth, and I'd take DK to beat the crap out of Falcon. The only way DK doesn't advance tomorrow is if he has another of his epic choke jobs.... actually, I'm not that comfortable anymore.

If Marth completely bombs, I'm ready to call Gordon > Duke for that fourpack, since there's no way Ike would even come close to him, with or without DK staling his votes.

TuRtLe
~~~
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 9:52:11 AM | message detail

Gordon > Duke should have been the consensus for a long time. Of course DK beats CF, and CF may beat Marth (I'd predict it to get pretty heated)...but if we're looking for THE peg to see how well an essentially-SSBM-only character can do, Marth has to be it.
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Buzzup | Posted 9/27/2007 9:53:16 AM | message detail

Marth will probably get SFFd a bit by DK though(DK SFFing someone sounds crazy, I know v_v), while Ike will be the first choice for the Nintendo fanbase. That, and Duke has probably weakened since we last saw him in 2k4.

Haste_2 | Posted 9/27/2007 9:56:06 AM | message detail

Marth could be quite a bit above Captain Falcon... I mean, Meta Knight is stronger than him, and even Pit would most likely give Captain Falcon a run for his money.

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Buzzup | Posted 9/27/2007 10:00:31 AM | message detail

I can' see Ike being much weaker than Pit btw, I'm sure more people here played FE9 than they played Kid Icarus.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 10:01:38 AM | message detail

Hmm...for what it's worth:

Pit got third place (~19%) on Luigi (~46%), Mudkip (~28%), and Tingle (~8%).
CF got third place (~19%) on Fox (~46%), Wario (~23%), and Banjo (~13%).

Which performance is better? Pit's or CF's? Both matches are all-Nintendo too (shut it Banjo), so that makes them interesting.
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Buzzup | Posted 9/27/2007 10:05:55 AM | message detail

It's hard to say, since we still don't know how strong Fox really is, but I am tempted to say Pit's performance was more impressive.
Falcon would still probably win head to head though.

RPGuy96 | Posted 9/27/2007 10:08:00 AM | message detail

Pit. Luigi beats Fox easily, and Mudkip and Tingle aren't that much weaker than Wario and Banjo.

Ike may not be in Smash yet, but he has the distinct advantage of being in a Fire Emblem that more than ~20 Americans have played (I knew I should have kept download statistics for my patch!). Less people know of him (since Melee is so much bigger than Path of Radiance) but those that do know him have more reason to like him. Plus he's up against three whodats as opposed to DK and Kratos.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 10:08:16 AM | message detail

Gordon > Duke should have been the consensus for a long time.

Really? Duke isn't worth much, and Ike has FE and SSBB to help him.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 10:13:48 AM | message detail

Well regardless, I'm taking Luigi > Fox head-to-head and Mudkip would be able to compete with Wario. I know that CF had more of his SSB/M-strength stripped away since Fox was in his poll and Wario's mighty hyped for SSBB too, but we've also seen Pit hide behind nothing but his hype and Kid Icarus yet still hang just as tough against his competition. Pit/CF would be good fun.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 10:17:17 AM | message detail

Really? Duke isn't worth much, and Ike has FE and SSBB to help him.

I believe Duke > Vyse since the last time we saw him, FE's still not a major franchise (though impressive in the Series Contest, but that match could be very skewed by sprites), and it's the SSBB-site...no trailers and such right now, plus he didn't make the same bang most of the other SSBB-newcomers made when he was official.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 10:31:15 AM | message detail

Laharl's a powerhouse -- he's within 14% of L-Block now...!
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/27/2007 10:36:11 AM | message detail

Hale's going to beat Agent J and Zolom's votals it looks like.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/27/2007 10:54:18 AM | message detail

I have Duke, but it's one of about 600 retrospective "what the heck was I thinking?" picks. Gordon will clearly take some of his support, and Ike has the advantages of a distinct fanbase, a cool Brawl picture, and the Brawl hype itself.

HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 11:04:06 AM | message detail

I'd like to see how Duke's/Gordon's fanbase react together. I don't think Duke would falter because of that, though I'm not opposed to him dropping since 2k4...and I'm not putting that kind of faith in Ike right now.
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transience | Posted 9/27/2007 12:04:03 PM | message detail

leo3leo | Posted 9/27/2007 12:14:15 PM | message detail

When Ike was announced for Super Smash Bros Brawl, I borrowed Path of Radiance from a friend, beat it, and became a fan of Ike.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 12:16:50 PM | message detail

The difference between Ike and Pit though, is that Pit was in the trailer that everyone saw. Ike is on the website that way fewer people have seen. Duke would have had to have dropped quite a bit, but I think he's more or less a joke character nowadays anyways. If Bidoof can beat Pit, Duke can beat Ike.

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/27/2007 12:18:38 PM | message detail

Still, like I said earlier, that fourpack is one of 2 round 1 matches that I'm still a little shaky on (Snake's being the other). I just keep thinking Nightmare is going to job to all hell.

TuRtLe
~~~
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miniver | Posted 9/27/2007 12:48:22 PM | message detail

I've seen lots of complaints recently along the lines of Character A would kick Character B's ass, how can Character B be winning.

So how many people, would you guess, thought it was a "Who would win in a fight" poll when filling out their bracket? I'd say at least 10%.
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voltch | Posted 9/27/2007 12:53:01 PM | message detail

10% out of 30kish brackets?
sounds like a lot.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2007 12:53:02 PM | message detail

I'd like to see how Duke's/Gordon's fanbase react together. I don't think Duke would falter because of that, though I'm not opposed to him dropping since 2k4...and I'm not putting that kind of faith in Ike right now.

They're both PC fanbases. How could Duke not be hurt by that?

Also, Duke is highly overrated in '04 thanks to Duke Milkem.
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miniver | Posted 9/27/2007 12:59:54 PM | message detail

Well, based on prediction percentages, it looks like about 40% of people didn't know that order mattered meaning they probably didn't read the rules. It doesn't seem like a stretch to assume that a quarter of them would assume that the characters would be battling, you know, since there's a big banner that says Character Battle.
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voltch | Posted 9/27/2007 1:01:09 PM | message detail

oh and who else believes the line block>L-block?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 1:01:31 PM | message detail

I think it's dangerous to simply say that Marth is a barometer of what being playable in Smash can do for you. this is a guy who has more going for him than Falcon or Ness. I'd consider him over both of them head-to-head because he's clearly the more preferred guy in the game - call it "rSFF" or whatever you want. the last time we saw a SSBM favourite go up against some other Nintendo guys, Fox went and looked like Luigi. I don't think that was natural strength or his Star Fox fanbase shining through -- most of that was Melee.

I know he's got more going for him SSBM-wise than Ness or CF. When I made my statement about it, I was talking more about a peak-range for coming from almost solely SSBM. If CF or Ness solely had SSBM (no SSB, no EB, no F-Zero), then I'd easily take Marth over them. Only Fox or Sheik could compete with him on that level, and Fox has his own series while Sheik's a part of arguably the biggest game here...Marth, not so much.

Just saying Marth should be the peak of what SSBM alone can do for you...which won't matter so much next year when we start wondering how much SSBB helps people.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/27/2007 1:04:56 PM | message detail

They're both PC fanbases. How could Duke not be hurt by that?

Is there a shortage of GameFAQs visitors with computers?

Also, Duke is highly overrated in '04 thanks to Duke Milkem.

Highly? Nu-uh. Perhaps some, but it wasn't a lot and I'd still take DN > Vyse head-to-head.
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voltch | Posted 9/27/2007 1:08:04 PM | message detail

somehow i believe only europeans vote for hale.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2007 1:08:41 PM | message detail

Is there a shortage of GameFAQs visitors with computers?

No, but there is a shortage of GameFAQs visitors who play PC FPSs.

Highly? Nu-uh. Perhaps some, but it wasn't a lot and I'd still take DN > Vyse head-to-head.

It was a full 2% ahead of 2k3, and most people expect Duke to be the type of person who drops over time.

Furthermore, what's your point in mentioning Vyse? Vyse has dropped off pretty badly as he's gotten older, and by now he's probably just Laharl-level fodder at best. Ike's actually fairly recent. There's no chance that Duke 2k7 comes even close to Vyse 2k3, if you want to make a more relevant comparison.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/27/2007 1:23:08 PM | message detail

Gordon SFFs Duke and allows Ike to take second place! BELIEVE.

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trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 2:54:25 PM | message detail

jeez. as if we didn't know L had Phoenix Wright trends before... an 8% drop is pretty impressive. Kirby looks like he's dominating him now.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/27/2007 2:57:12 PM | message detail

Well, even if Gordon doesn't SFF Duke, there's always LFF to hurt him.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/27/2007 2:58:21 PM | message detail

Phoenix Wright vs L-Block gogogo!
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 3:46:08 PM | message detail

Kirby is sucking up the day vote like it's nothing. 45% looks out of reach, but I can still hope for it!
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Kirby/L-Block/Laharl/Nathan- Bracket: Kirby > L-Block - Vote: Kirby (79/96)

charmander6000 | Posted 9/27/2007 3:47:10 PM | message detail

Sadly L-Block would take it. Why is he so strong?
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Match 25: Kirby > Laharl Points: 70/96

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/27/2007 4:40:34 PM | message detail

EVERYONE knows Tetris.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/27/2007 5:52:51 PM | message detail

But how many people actually love? I mean Tetris isn't that great. >_>
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/27/2007 5:54:47 PM | message detail

whatwhatwhat

BURN THE WITCH
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Kirby/L-Block/Laharl/Nathan- Bracket: Kirby > L-Block - Vote: Kirby (79/96)

trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 5:55:06 PM | message detail

yeah you're dumb
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/27/2007 5:55:16 PM | message detail

Tetris Attack > Tetris
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trannyscience | Posted 9/27/2007 5:55:24 PM | message detail

no.
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