GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 499
| Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:21:21 PM | message detail |
|
Why is the updater off by 2 minutes already? --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2007 9:24:42 PM | message detail |
|
Ridley and Vivi are about to be within less than 10% of each other. I will not accept this --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 9:27:34 PM | message detail |
|
well, this is pretty much exactly what I expected so far. Leon's
showing he's legit, Vivi's still a solid midcarder and Ridley's got his
20%. I feel that Pikachu/Vivi is a tossup, just like I thought an hour
ago. Vivi will likely go up with the night vote too, though Leon
probably does a number on everyone with the day vote. I expect Ridley to drop after the initial vote too. he just seems the type. --- xyzzy http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:27:39 PM | message detail |
|
Wow...this is the deadest I've ever seen these during the NPH... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| Big Bob | Posted 9/25/2007 9:28:02 PM | message detail |
|
Vivi gets a lot of appeal from his black mage appearance, correct? You can't get more recognizable than Pikachu. Sorry, Vivi. And Tidus sucking your votes away too... --- September 29th: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=38262325 |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/25/2007 9:28:23 PM | message detail |
|
Wow Leon! Leon > Dante has a chance after all. --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2007 9:29:08 PM | message detail |
|
And I still say Tidus SFFing...anyone really makes no sense to me. --- The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar |
| ZFS | Posted 9/25/2007 9:29:21 PM | message detail |
|
You can't get more recognizable than Pikachu. Sorry, Vivi. There is appeal in a Black Mage. Vivi actually looks cool. It's more than simply being recognizable. Pikachu doesn't have anything on Vivi as far as that goes. --- let's mosey |
| BDawg | Posted 9/25/2007 9:29:37 PM | message detail |
|
Oh I could make some kind of pro-Leon comparison to Dante's four pack,
but Ada in round 3 is too depressing. And I imagine Vivi might chip
Leon's percentage in the day if he can rough up Zelda. --- Should I start running now? |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2007 9:32:36 PM | message detail |
|
Yeah. For a minute I was kind of interested at the prospect of Leon
surpassing Dante. Then I realized that RE4 popularity was a
double-edged sword in the form of Ada's presence. AND I CURSED THE MOONS --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:33:41 PM | message detail |
|
lol Spyro... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/25/2007 9:34:19 PM | message detail |
|
Ridley is so badass --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 9:35:13 PM | message detail |
|
well, we'll see how Ada holds up with Dante in the poll. it's not
"SFF", but I could see a lot of her votes going to Dante. I like
Balthier in that match still... for now. maybe I'm just hopeful that
one of the best matches of the contest isn't ruined. --- xyzzy http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 9:42:05 PM | message detail |
|
I do think Balthier will hold up better than Ada next round compared to
this round...but if it has to come to that for Balthier > Ada, I'm
predicting Ammy's going to Round Three. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/25/2007 9:43:45 PM | message detail |
|
I think Amaterasu is the least likely to move on to round 3, myself.
Ada's probably the safe bet, but Balthier isn't out of contention
there. --- let's mosey |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 9:52:10 PM | message detail |
|
I dunno. I think Ada pulls it off. Her prediction % is a pretty clear indicator of what the casuals want. Which makes absolutely no sense given her match against Samus last year. TuRtLe ~~~ 67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2007 9:53:33 PM | message detail |
|
Vivi nearly losing updates to Ridley? Oh my word... --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Isaac/Pikachu/Serge/Tidus- Bracket: Tidus > Pikachu - Vote: Pikachu (73/88) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 9:55:25 PM | message detail |
|
Eh, after seeing Vaan be decimated in the highest-voted match this
contest (Rikku be damned), Balthier clearly losing to Ada in the
lowest-voted match this contest, FF9 >= FF12 in the modern-FF poll
last year, understanding FF12 was a love/hate game before the contest,
and hearing FF12 has an ensemble cast recently... ...I'll remain doubtful of Balthier's chances next round. I know nobody's thinking of him as a favorite, but if he has to rely on having a more solid fanbase than Ada to beat her with Dante in the poll already sucking in lots of votes then I'm going to consider Ammy the most proven. It'll be worth mentioning for next round that Ada's the only character with games not just on the PS2. Good luck Balthier. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BDawg | Posted 9/25/2007 9:55:33 PM | message detail |
|
Mmm yeah looks like Vivi/Ridley will be the closest match pretty soon. --- Should I start running now? |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/25/2007 9:55:39 PM | message detail |
|
I dunno. I think Ada pulls it off. Her prediction % is a pretty clear indicator of what the casuals want. augh why have people forgotten about alphabetical order already --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:01:21 PM | message detail |
|
yeah, I'm taking Amaterasu for last as well. my reasoning? I don't have any. but... that GOTY poll is screaming at me, even if it's already proven to be completely unreliable. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:05:06 PM | message detail |
|
Side-note for Ulti if he reads this: Ulti, as I've read over the 500-topic, I want to know if we can get an explanation on each of the mod-rulings about the stats topics. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| wavedash101 | Posted 9/25/2007 10:05:35 PM | message detail |
|
Go Leon --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Annoying posters! I am the great wavedash! [no u cru] |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 10:08:01 PM | message detail |
|
Damn it EffDee, you taking Vivi today means hochi is back at #1, and by
my count will be making his stat topic comeback sometime today. TuRtLe ~~~ 67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/25/2007 10:08:34 PM | message detail |
|
Vivi finally seems to be recovering a bit. That earlier was quite a drop. --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 10:08:55 PM | message detail |
|
It's not her first place percentage so much as her total percentage. TuRtLe ~~~ 67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:12:04 PM | message detail |
|
I don't blame anybody for not having a lot of faith in Ammy...and I
don't either. Ada's the most likely favorite, but Ammy already getting
23% on Dante should stand for something considering Ada's performance
last year and Balthier's performance yesterday. Ada could be stronger,
Ammy may be misleading, and/or Balthier's fanbase may be more
loyal...but I don't think Ammy's out of the running -- I'm taking that
pretty tiger-lion-art-creature over Balthier next round regardless of
what happens with Ada. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| ZFS | Posted 9/25/2007 10:14:03 PM | message detail |
|
...I'll remain doubtful of Balthier's chances next round. I know
nobody's thinking of him as a favorite, but if he has to rely on having
a more solid fanbase than Ada to beat her with Dante in the poll
already sucking in lots of votes then I'm going to consider Ammy the
most proven. Well, I believe Balthier's undoubtedly stronger than Amaterasu one-on-one, and I have a very hard time believing that she has more of a following on GameFAQs than Balthier would. Outside of Balthier underperforming expectations, there's little reason to suspect that Amaterasu is up to the task of beating out a Final Fantasy character. Let's get real here -- she came in second ahead of the likes of Little Mac and Matt the Mii. That's not proven. --- let's mosey |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 10:15:09 PM | message detail |
|
Amatasdsersau got 23% on Dante with Little Mac and Matt in the poll. Throw in decently strengthed characters and I'll be surprised if she breaks 15% in round 2. TuRtLe ~~~ 67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:22:44 PM | message detail |
|
Balthier was the heavy board-favorite who got 33% with Ada Wong, Frank West, and Jade Curtiss...and still took second place. I'll take Ammy's under-dog'd 23% with Dante/Mac/Matt over that. Dante smokes every one of them, and I'd take Mac to fight with Frank while taking Mac or Matt to pummel (haw haw) Jade. Ammy would hold up well enough to Ada or Balthier, though head-to-head I wouldn't take Ammy over either of them. Still, I want to see the loyalty of the Okami fanbase behind Amster. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:24:12 PM | message detail |
|
put Ridley in Dante's fourpack in place of Little Mac -- who wins that thing? --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:27:37 PM | message detail |
|
Also, since you said "Throw in decently strengthed characters and I'll
be surprised if she breaks 15% in round 2."...if you were to put Ada
in, say, Agent 47's place before the contest, how many people would
have taken her to even beat Kratos Aurion? Kratos took third place with
21% in a poll that Scorpion won. Forgive me for being skeptic about
Balthier doing well next round. Ada may just be impressive this year, but I want to see it first. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 10:30:21 PM | message detail |
|
Ammy beating Balthier next round would make my contest... --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:31:19 PM | message detail |
|
I'd roll with Dante > Ridley in that situation -- I've got Leon >
Dante and Ridley's considerably more well-known than Ammy or Matt. It'd
be up for grabs, but I'd take Ridley (screw Matt leeching off of him!). --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:32:32 PM | message detail |
|
put Ada in Midna's place and I take Scorpion > Kratos there. I'm just not convinced on Ada... we'll see. Ada is clearly the same pick there. I'm just not confident in her and don't mind rolling the dice. it's Ada freaking Wong. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:35:54 PM | message detail |
|
I'd roll with Dante > Ridley in that situation -- I've got Leon
> Dante and Ridley's considerably more well-known than Ammy or Matt.
It'd be up for grabs, but I'd take Ridley (screw Matt leeching off of
him!). yeah, I would too. Leon's putting up big numbers despite a guy who I would take for second in Dante's pack AND Vivi, who I think is a legit midcarder. Leon > Dante looks damn good directly -- we'll see what happens otherwise (ie Ada). Leon/Dante and Crono/Vincent in probably the same week is an awesome contest. Ridley's folding right now though, and Vivi's picking up some votes. Ridley sure seemed like a first-hour guy in 2005, and he's looking like it again. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:38:53 PM | message detail |
|
bam -- 40%. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2007 10:39:27 PM | message detail |
|
Knew I was feeling confident in Leon for a reason. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Isaac/Pikachu/Serge/Tidus- Bracket: Tidus > Pikachu - Vote: Pikachu (73/88) |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/25/2007 10:42:38 PM | message detail |
|
Leon finally hits 40%! I'm surprised Spyro's doing so horribly here considering Crash did so well. Then again, Jak didn't preform so hot either. Was Crash hated a lot back then? --- Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__ |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:46:52 PM | message detail |
|
Right, but if you would take Kratos > Ada in Scorpion's match then
-- considering she replaces Midna instead of Agent 47 -- she gets
about...I'm going to guess 22%. Dante >> Sub-Zero,
and Ammy already landed 23% on him with Mac and Matt in the match. I
trust that Ada and Balthier are decently stronger than those two, but
if our idea that Ada couldn't have beaten Kratos Aurion in Scorpion's
match is right, then I just don't see how Ammy doesn't already have a
larger advantage than we're giving credit for. I cannot believe I'm arguing for Ameratasu (trying to spell it without looking, shut up!) being an unrespected underdog to advance into Round Three past the favorite of Ada Wong. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 10:51:02 PM | message detail |
|
Didn't mean to put in the second > in "Dante >>
Sub-Zero"...though I think there should be more than one whole > as
well! >xone.five o yea --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 10:55:33 PM | message detail |
|
well, I look at it differently.. I think it's just really difficult to
get above 50% in a poll. I just started my writeup for the Kirby match,
and Kirby should utterly dominate his pack.. yet there's no way I'm
going for 60% there. your name better be "Cloud" or "Link" or I'm not
expecting that kind of domination -- I don't care what it's against. Amaterasu getting 22% isn't THAT impressive. not yet - not until I see her beat something not named Little Mac and Matt. she's impressed me before, but both of those guys had reasons to bomb. does Amaterasu get 31% or whatever Balthier got in the Ada Wong match? I'm skeptical. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:00:06 PM | message detail |
|
I'm pretty sceptical of Balthier, too. He pulled in a third of the vote
with one of the fodderiest characters in the contest, another fodder
character, and lost by over 5% to someone who barely broke 20% on
Samus. Additionally, there's nothing to indicate his fanbase is any
more dedicated than Ada's or Ammy's. In fact, I'd argue the opposite,
since Final Fantasy XII's playerbase is probably on par with Resident
Evil 4's and vastly superior to Okami's, yet he still lost fairly
considerably to a minor RE4 character. If you're compressing
percentages (and I expect all three to be in the 18-22% range, with
Dante around 40%), I don't see why you'd expect Ada to lose
significantly more than Balthier. And Ammy could be the type of
character who would struggle to get high percentages but should be able
to maintain low ones - which is what she'd need to be to take 2nd. Or
she could have just got a lot of apathy votes due to her awesome
artwork, which would be diminished with Ada and Balthier taking the
place of Mac and Matt. On the subject of what Ada in the 3rd round means for Leon: tranny brought up placing Ridley in Dante's 4-pack, and I think he has a great shot of winning there. Leon's got a much stronger 4-pack than Dante and he's looking to finish on top of 40%, which is pretty impressive. So that means that Ada > Leon > Dante people could decide the third round match...I guess you have to ask yourself how likely you think Ada > Leon > Dante is versus Ada > Dante > Leon. Given the nature of Resident Evil 4 and Devil May Cry I don't think the first is significantly more likely to occur than the second, and that cuts down the amount of leeching Ada would do. On the flip side, I think both Leon > Ada > others and Dante > Ada > others is pretty likely, so I think Ada will get SFF'd pretty hard by both of the gun toting, one-liner spouting Capcom badasses. So I don't think Ada will kill Leon unless the match is really close...I'd expect the fourth character to benefit the most from it. And a bit on that fourth character - Vivi's not looking too hot here. It's hard to judge exactly where Leon and Pikachu land, so it's tough to say how much stronger Vivi is than Pikachu in a one on one, but I don't think this is a particularly good sign. I suppose you can salvage this by saying that we have some evidence that Old Square and New Square don't SFF each other, or, judging by votals, even leech each other (see: FFVII/CT with the highest votals of that contest). But I don't even know if Vivi acts like Old Square or not - one one hand, he didn't get SFF'd by Sephiroth (probably), on the other he doesn't have FFVI or CT's horrible day vote. So I'm not sure what Tidus can do to him. Rambling is a great way of clearing my mind before going to sleep. :) --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:03:02 PM | message detail |
|
Hmmmm...I don't know if this has ever been mentioned but Sub-Zero has a
really good shot at surviving his division. Aeris (Sora?) and Squall
can split the vote to let him through. --- Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 11:03:37 PM | message detail |
|
Probably not reaching 33%, no, but there's also a lot more votes to go
around there than their match in Round Two. I agree Mac and Matt aren't
much, but I am cautious about thinking Okami fans are going to budge
for either one of those two. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| Buzzup | Posted 9/25/2007 11:07:33 PM | message detail |
| Sub-Zero won't even get there, he'll job in round 2 to the man with the most hardcore fanbase of alle hardcore fanbases, Gordon Freeman! |
| transience | Posted 9/25/2007 11:07:41 PM | message detail |
| have you played FF12, RPGuy? Balthier is quite the
fan-favourite within the game - I think the problem here is that people
are fairly apathetic about the game itself. I don't think it has the
playership that we expected prior. I think the polls it won were a lot
of franchise voting. I think KH2 is actually more popular than FF12 is. I certainly think his fanbase likes him more than the RE4 fanbase likes Ada. the RE4 fanbase is certainly larger than the FF12 fanbase, but I wonder how likely they are to stick with their guy. we've already seen them abandon her once. --- ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD ZFStix: kill it |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 11:11:00 PM | message detail |
|
I think KH2 is actually more popular than FF12 is. I FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE JUSTIFIED FROM MY GOTY-PREDICTIONS NOW YAY --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| voltch | Posted 9/25/2007 11:13:28 PM | message detail |
|
FACT OR FICTION:If we had seedings in this contest people would have picked differently,subconcsiously as well. --- Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:19:25 PM | message detail |
|
I'm ~64 hours into FFXII, mostly due to hunting. I expected better out
of Balthier, as did nearly all of us. And apathy towards the game is no
excuse - I think a lot of people on GameFAQs have played it, they just
don't like/don't care about it. But apathy towards the game doesn't
preclude them from liking the character - Dante's actually a pretty
good example of that, judging from the Series contest. I think Balthier
just isn't as popular as we thought he would be even within the Final
Fantasy XII fanbase. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that's
happened - we've come to expect Auron > Tidus situations, but
they're probably still special cases. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
