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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 499

RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2007 6:26:29 PM | message detail
Squall certainly can't SFF Tidus, as today shows.
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Mustache...and green...
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Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 6:27:08 PM | message detail
I'm starting to honestly wonder about Tidus vs. Zidane...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 6:28:12 PM | message detail
don't overreact. this is bad, but it's not that bad. I still take Tidus over Pikachu one-on-one.
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2007 6:35:29 PM | message detail
That was a little facetious, but I'm not so sure about Pikachu/Tidus head to head. Discounting Isaac for the moment, Serge accounts for 15000 votes and Pikachu's lead is 5000 - so the split for Serge's votes needs to be on the order of 66% to Tidus. I don't think Tidus and Serge are that strongly tied together, particularly if Pikachu is actually stronger than Tidus - recall that Cloud only got 71% of Sephiroth's votes in the face of Link and Snake.

Isaac could account for the difference if you want to believe he's dragging Tidus down more than Pikachu (relative to their individual strengths), but I find that unlikely.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BesaidGuy | Posted 9/25/2007 6:38:01 PM | message detail
I have lurked in these things for years and never posted much outside of Frog's epic win, but I must ask, why does Lu Bu never make it into the contest?

I mean with 5 Dynasty Warrior games out and a 6th on the way, and Lu Bu being a total badass and the most powerful person in the games, it is surprsing that even with 128 characters he failed to get in.

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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/25/2007 6:41:09 PM | message detail
Agreed. If anything, Isaac is bringing Pikachu down because:

-He's another Nintendo character
-He's another handheld RPG character
-Golden Sun's game play is so similar to Pokemon's (Psynergy=HM's, puzzles are similar, etc), which means that GS is a direct appeal to the Pokemon fanbase.
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Ogre Battle saga fanboy, and hopeless supporter of Lans Tartare for CB2K8!
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 6:44:04 PM | message detail
Serge is definitely sucking Tidus - how much, I have no idea, but it's certainly some. I think Isaac hurts Tidus more than Serge, too - damn the consoles or the makers, the style of game is closer to FF10 than it is pokeyman. does Tidus win easily? no. but I'd pick him.
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2007 6:47:22 PM | message detail
Serge is definitely sucking Tidus

aww yeah
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Isaac/Pikachu/Serge/Tidus- Bracket: Tidus > Pikachu - Vote: Pikachu (73/88)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/25/2007 7:02:19 PM | message detail
Reading over these write-ups, just remembered tomorrow's going to be RE4/Leon quote day in the stats topic.

Looking forward to that!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Isaac/Pikachu/Serge/Tidus- Bracket: Tidus > Pikachu - Vote: Pikachu (73/88)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2007 7:07:49 PM | message detail
No way does Isaac hurt Tidus more than Pikachu.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
swirIdude | Posted 9/25/2007 7:09:29 PM | message detail
Remember how we used to say that a Pokemon Spring Contest would rock?

Yeah, me too. Good times.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2007 7:16:00 PM | message detail
Match XXIV: Leon Kennedy vs Ridley vs Spyro vs Vivi

Information

Name: Leon Kennedy
Game/Series From: Resident Evil series
Past Contests: CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: Gordon Freeman (2k5)
Losses: Mega Man (2k5), Bowser (2k6)

Name: Ridley
Game/Series From: Metroid series
Past Contests: VC2k5
Wins: None
Losses: Diablo (VC)

Name: Spyro the Dragon
Game/Series From: Spyro the Dragon series
Past Contests: CB2k2
Wins: None
Losses: Morrigan (2k2)

Name: Vivi Ornitier
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy IX
Past Contests: CB2k4, CB2k5
Wins: Donkey Kong (2k4)
Losses: Sephiroth (2k4), Zelda (2k5)

Analysis

Another match where the top two are known, though looking at previous contest matches I’d say nothing is for certain, but the order is still much debated. The winner of this match will probably be the favorite in coming second of the division. This is also our eighth match where all the participants have appeared in a previous contest granted that two of them have only appeared in one match each.

Leon is the favorite to take first coming into the match though I wouldn’t really call him the big favorite. Since last year Resident Evil 4 has been re-released onto the Wii. Last year we saw him get a boost from the PS2 version so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got one this year. However with RE4 being on the Gamecube would Leon get another noticeable boost? The Wii version has some extras that the Gamecube didn’t have plus for the fact that the Wii looks like it’ll outsell the Gamecube in half the time there must be a few people that owned a Wii, but not a Gamecube. However the PS2 version was out about ten months before Leon’s match while the Wii version has only been out for three so maybe the Wii fanbase hasn’t had enough time to soak up the game.

Vivi also has a chance at winning this match, but is considered the underdog. Since his last appearance he has appeared as a cameo in Kingdom Hearts 2. His appearance was sort of big playing a big role at the beginning of the game, but he pretty much disappears after that. Vivi gets the bulk of his strength from the picture. Like some characters Vivi relies on image recognition rather than name recognition because to people who haven’t played FFIX can tell he is a black mage and may vote for him. Vivi may be one of those characters that fluctuate in popularity based on if the opponent is known to the average voter. He hasn’t shown if it is true, but all of his opponents are universally known or is from FFVII. However in this format there are too many fanbases to check if it is true, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Vivi performed better against each character individually.

Ridley has a chance at an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it. Ridley lost badly to Diablo in the Villain Contest, but since then Metroid Prime 3 was released and it was just last month too. I haven’t played it, but quickly scanning a FAQ it seems that his role isn’t that different than the ones in other Metroid games. He’ll probably do better than what the stats say (basing this off of 2k5 Diablo), but I don’t think the boost will be enough to make Leon/Vivi sweat.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2007 7:16:19 PM | message detail
Finally we have Spyro, back in 2k2 he was as hated as Pikachu and Crash, but like Pikachu I think the hate has died down since then. Of course so has his popularity, Spyro hasn’t had a decent game since the PS era and now like many characters has been forgotten in gaming history. If he does any better than last I’ll be surprised in his performance.

Leon/Vivi will fight it out for first with Ridley not so far but far away enough not to do anything. I’m giving the advantage to Leon because of RE4 for the Wii and that I don’t think Vivi could make up the gap (not that it was big) and match him for his Wii boost with just a small cameo in KH2.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Leon Kennedy > Vivi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Leon - 32.36%, Vivi - 31.71%, Ridley - 23.52%, Spyro - 12.41%
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 23: Tidus > Pikachu Points: 64/88
ejm5446 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:16:31 PM | message detail
Wow, you guys must be busy with Halo or something.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:18:01 PM | message detail
Nothing really left to talk about in this match and the next match doesn't really have much discussion in it until the match starts.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 23: Tidus > Pikachu Points: 64/88
Radix | Posted 9/25/2007 8:20:47 PM | message detail
but I must ask, why does Lu Bu never make it into the contest?

Based on a real person? I'm not familiar with Dynasty Warriors so I dunno if he's a different character or what
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/25/2007 8:21:24 PM | message detail
493 Pokemon. How many of them break 20%BL?
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trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 8:23:03 PM | message detail
uhh..

well, I think a random Pokemon would be like Pac-Man. put it against something that's a little too "niche" for GameFAQs and it'll win. put it against something well-known and it'd get destroyed.
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2007 8:23:22 PM | message detail
About 5-10% of them.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Big Bob | Posted 9/25/2007 8:24:55 PM | message detail
Huntail is as low as you can go.
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September 29th:
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:30:14 PM | message detail
20% on Link, well Bidoof is only expected to get around 18%. IMO I'd expect only about 20 pokemon to break 20%.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 23: Tidus > Pikachu Points: 64/88
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 8:30:52 PM | message detail
trannyscience
Posted 9/25/2007 8:48:57 PM
#283 Mog for sc2k8


Welcome to 20 topics ago

And Lu Bu is a historical character. He wouldn't be allowed under the rules.

That's like saying we should rally for Adolf Hitler because of the various WW2 games he's a part of.

TuRtLe
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65/88 in the contest. Next pick: Meg Ryan > The yellow rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 8:32:29 PM | message detail
I've just come to realize just how big of a jump Pokemon has come since the contests started. In 2k3, Pikachu got 31% against Fox...SFF or not, now Mudkip gets 28% against Luigi, Pit, and Tingle while Pikachu manages 36.5% on Tidus, Isaac, and Serge. Throw in that Bidoof got 16% on Link, Miles, and Agent J while Fox got 17.5% on Link, too. I'm not adding Mewtwo's match to this list since he's more than just some random Pokemon or the often-hated mascot, either, though he certainly turned a lot of heads as well.

That's simply humongous to me. I knew this format would favor Pokemon characters a lot, but even given the format you can hardly ignore these things.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:33:43 PM | message detail
I think everyone knew Pokemon was a different beast the second it got 48% on Metroid in the series contest.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Heroic Dr Wily | Posted 9/25/2007 8:34:18 PM | message detail
Spyro was hated?

I though people just didn't really like him a favorite character ala bomberman.
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Support BIDOOF for this year's contest.
http://benparr.com/bidoof.swf
greatone10 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:36:44 PM | message detail
Buy or Sell: Pokemon G/S/C defeats Xenogears 60-40 in a rematch.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/25/2007 8:38:01 PM | message detail
I took it as much more respect for the games and series, but people for awhile were more willing to believe the Metroid series didn't have much strength than that the characters were going to be stronger. Not that people didn't think the character hate hadn't gone down...but there wasn't a lot of reason to think random Pokemon had any reason to get much stronger.

Still though, it was an eye-opener.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 9/25/2007 8:42:00 PM | message detail
Buy or Sell: Pokemon G/S/C defeats Xenogears 60-40 in a rematch.

Worse, I'd call a doubling, or maybe even 70-75.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/25/2007 8:44:45 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/25/2007 8:51:01 PM | message detail
I don't think it's the format helping, so much as the fact that Pokemon has a serious community behind it, and a sizable one at that.

TuRtLe
~~~
65/88 in the contest. Next pick: Meg Ryan > The yellow rat
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 8:57:35 PM | message detail
*prepares to wave goodbye to his leaderboard spot*


**** You Pikachu!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 8:58:44 PM | message detail
time for some Leon domination, yo.
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
ZFS | Posted 9/25/2007 8:59:27 PM | message detail
This match is gonna be all Vivi, baby!

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let's mosey
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 8:59:59 PM | message detail
HM v transience round 1
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
Tediz247 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 31.71%

13
Ridley 17.07%

7
Spyro the Dragon 7.32%

3
Vivi Ornitier 43.9%

18
TOTAL VOTES 41
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Janus5000 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 33%

33
Ridley 20%

20
Spyro the Dragon 7%

7
Vivi Ornitier 40%

40
TOTAL VOTES 100

aww yeah
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 23.08%

3
Ridley 23.08%

3
Spyro the Dragon 7.69%

1
Vivi Ornitier 46.15%

6
TOTAL VOTES 13
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:33 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 25%

4
Ridley 18.75%

3
Spyro the Dragon 6.25%

1
Vivi Ornitier 50%

8
TOTAL VOTES 16
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:43 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 36.32% 77
Ridley 21.23% 45
Spyro the Dragon 6.13% 13
Vivi Ornitier 36.32% 77
TOTAL VOTES 212

it's awn
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
Eggplant Lord | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:56 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted

Leon Kennedy 26.32% 5
Ridley 15.79% 3
Spyro the Dragon 5.26% 1
Vivi Ornitier 52.63% 10
TOTAL VOTES 19

___
*watches*
o_o
Agent M | Posted 9/25/2007 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy 33.64%

36
Ridley 21.5%

23
Spyro the Dragon 6.54%

7
Vivi Ornitier 38.32%

41
TOTAL VOTES 107

lol spyro
greatone10 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:01 PM | message detail
Vivi, you're small time!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Keno316 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:02 PM | message detail
Go Vivi!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
ZFS | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:03 PM | message detail
lets do this

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let's mosey
Tediz247 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:07 PM | message detail
lol spyro
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:39 PM | message detail
Vivi > Leon confirmed.

Leon is so screwed
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:45 PM | message detail
Woohoo Vivi
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
trannyscience | Posted 9/25/2007 9:01:55 PM | message detail
wow, awesome match so far. my quick three minute reaction is that Pikachu's got a tall order in front of him.
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xyzzy
http://www.ksot.com/GameFAX.htm
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/25/2007 9:02:09 PM | message detail
Dammit Vivi it doesn't work if you already lose the lead 5 seconds after my post
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
greatone10 | Posted 9/25/2007 9:02:10 PM | message detail
Leon took the lead!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
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