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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 499

Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:23:00 PM | message detail
Ada Wong might get SFFed by Dante next round, giving a possible second place to Balthier. My hope is not lost.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:27:16 PM | message detail
I think that's actually Balthier's best hope of getting second place. <_<
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Starion | Posted 9/25/2007 11:28:49 PM | message detail
Unless Ammy SFFs Balthier too. Way too implausible?
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100% Frog Log Quest: Current Progress- 400 of 627 Completed: Jaster, Kisala, Deego
transience | Posted 9/25/2007 11:34:02 PM | message detail
I like that idea the best -- Ada crumbling to Dante. I just hesitate to use the term "SFF".
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Haste_2 | Posted 9/25/2007 11:54:30 PM | message detail
Crumbling is a type of SFF... if not that, it's non-linearity. Someone like Crash isn't non-linear... he just crumbles easily, and hence gets SFFed by lots of characters. I think Ada Wong crumbled against, or was SFFed by, Samus.

I'm honestly wondering if there's someone in this poll that is causing Spyro to "crumble"... I cannot see Spyro's true x-stat strength being in the single digits.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/26/2007 12:00:25 AM | message detail
I think Spyro is just on the same league as Jak, Crash, and Ratchet. Platforming characters(other than the bigs like Mario and Sonic of course) will probably perform worse in 4-way polls than one-on-one because you need a more favoritist devoted fanbase. Being recognized and decent is going to carry them a lot further in one-on-one than it is when there's 3 other options to choose from since the odds of being the absolute favorite among 4 people is lowered more than most other characters.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/26/2007 12:01:42 AM | message detail
I would Ratchet and -especially- Crash did relatively well.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/26/2007 12:03:23 AM | message detail
Meh. I still think they did worse relative than how they would if they were faced with just one of the characters in the poll. Except maybe Crash. But that match was kind of weird what with Magus being a pretty big disappointment.
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 9/26/2007 12:17:03 AM | message detail
yeah, I thought they've done pretty decent. though this poll has a lot more strength than most of the ones the impressive ones have been in...
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
greatone10 | Posted 9/26/2007 12:22:18 AM | message detail
Crash probably did well because he drew the three best possible opponents for him. An well-liked RPG anti-hero from last decade, a nostalgia character who's best days are well past him, and Phoenix Wright.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/26/2007 12:28:31 AM | message detail
I think Spyro is just this weak. I can't see him doing what Crash did even if he had relatively unknown opponents. I never pictured Spyro ever really being liked or anything.
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 12:32:33 AM | message detail
Liking today's results. Pretty much as expected, but still impressing performances from Leon and Vivi IMO.

Vivi's definitely more impressive here than Tidus was yesterday, though I wouldn't count out Leon > Tidus. Despite Vivi/Sephiroth and Tidus/Squall, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tidus getting the better end of SFF.


Hmmmm...I don't know if this has ever been mentioned but Sub-Zero has a really good shot at surviving his division. Aeris (Sora?) and Squall can split the vote to let him through.

I think it'll be Squall/Sora there, and I think they will have a sufficient split to keep Sub-Zero back. He certainly does have a good chance though.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 12:36:50 AM | message detail
Also, why is this picture never used for Tidus?

http://www.ffcompendium.com/art/10-tidus-a.jpg

He looks a lot less Meg Ryanesque there.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
transience | Posted 9/26/2007 12:45:31 AM | message detail
Vivi with the update win! aw yeah
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/26/2007 12:59:43 AM | message detail
Why the heck did Vivi do so comparatively bad from 3:00 to 3:40. Kind of a weird time to have your worst performance considering it seems to be sandwiched inbetween two of his better times
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 9/26/2007 1:09:49 AM | message detail
I think these guys have fairly similar trends. they may go back and forth a bit like that.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
MasterOfHunters | Posted 9/26/2007 1:54:34 AM | message detail
Why is Nintendo so strong on this site? Obviously the NGC stinks and the majority of the people who bought the Wii doesn't seem like the crowd that would come here to find FAQS, as Wii games are shallow as hell.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/26/2007 2:04:32 AM | message detail
Time .| Leon .....| Ridley ..| Spyro ....| Vivi
01:00 | 39.95% | 20.72% | 08.69% | 30.63%
02:00 | 40.34% | 19.40% | 08.03% | 32.22%
03:00 | 41.35% | 18.90% | 08.22% | 31.54%
04:00 | 41.18% | 19.00% | 08.92% | 30.90%
05:00 | 39.25% | 16.29% | 08.26% | 36.20%


I think the 4-5 hour is my favorite voting block in these contests >_>
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/26/2007 2:06:17 AM | message detail
So... is a new Part 500 going to be made or is it just going to be skipped all together for Part 501?
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Who the hell do you think you are getting off being so egotistical like that? - hochiminh155 to Takfloyd_mkII__
ejm5446 | Posted 9/26/2007 3:34:02 AM | message detail
Overall Rankings - Votes

103,465 Link
87,496 Cloud Strife
76,130 Mario
74,190 Sephiroth
70,743 Mega Man
70,546 Samus Aran
67,963 Dante
64,543 Auron
63,805 Ganondorf
62,987 Luigi
60,534 Crono
59,910 Master Chief
55,989 Yoshi
55,265 Vincent Valentine
54,609 Fox McCloud
50,230 Zero
49,754 Ryu (Street Fighter)
47,724 Scorpion
44,717 Pikachu
44,524 Marcus Fenix
43,939 Knuckles the Echidna
43,344 Ada Wong
42,830 Rikku
42,692 Zelda
39,571 Yuna
39,354 Magus
39,225 Bowser
39,185 Shadow the Hedgehog
38,881 Tidus
38,712 Kefka
37,971 Mudkip
37,234 Balthier Bunansa
35,430 Liquid Snake
35,427 Alucard
34,197 Mewtwo
32,413 Ness
32,182 Midna
31,431 Amaterasu
30,548 Phoenix Wright
30,467 Bomberman
30,234 Big Boss
27,474 Kratos Aurion
27,107 Crash Bandicoot
27,044 HK-47
26,937 Wario
25,822 KOS-MOS
25,683 Lloyd Irving
25,650 Pit
25,410 Frog
25,316 Raiden
25,282 Axel
25,256 Revolver Ocelot
25,168 Vergil
24,944 Sam Fisher
24,453 Meta Knight
24,234 Zidane Tribal
24,148 Pyramid Head
24,030 Jak
23,419 Bidoof
22,874 Agent 47
22,851 Little Mac
22,708 Frank West
22,633 The Boss
22,614 Tom Nook
22,482 Captain Falcon
22,287 Miles 'Tails' Prower
22,248 Jill Valentine
21,979 Thrall
21,950 Arthas Menethil
21,603 Diablo
21,496 Isaac
21,339 Chris Redfield
20,613 Princess Peach
19,268 Tommy Vercetti
18,987 Ratchet
17,009 Serge
15,910 Matt (Wii Sports)
15,638 Banjo
15,164 Zelos Wilder
15,075 Sarah Kerrigan
15,068 CATS
15,064 Vaan
14,836 Simon Belmont
13,895 Toad
13,397 Miles Edgeworth
13,289 Pac-Man
12,382 PaRappa
11,819 Wander
10,436 Tingle
9,529 Jade Curtiss
7,874 Midgar Zolom
6,468 Agent J


Overall Rankings - PCT

70.50% Link
61.24% Cloud Strife
57.91% Mario
55.23% Sephiroth
51.75% Samus Aran
50.49% Mega Man
49.19% Dante
49.10% Ganondorf
48.18% Crono
45.96% Luigi
45.69% Master Chief
45.63% Fox McCloud
43.26% Auron
39.56% Zero
38.68% Vincent Valentine
38.42% Ada Wong
36.79% Marcus Fenix
36.64% Scorpion
36.62% Pikachu
36.30% Ryu (Street Fighter)
35.48% Yoshi
33.00% Balthier Bunansa
31.99% Kefka
31.84% Tidus
30.87% Magus
30.18% Yuna
29.88% Zelda
28.62% Bowser
27.84% Knuckles the Echidna
27.79% Liquid Snake
27.79% Alucard
27.71% Mudkip
27.14% Rikku
26.26% Shadow the Hedgehog
25.42% Ness
24.95% Mewtwo
24.71% Midna
23.96% Phoenix Wright
23.90% Bomberman
23.00% Big Boss
22.75% Amaterasu
22.51% Wario
21.30% HK-47
21.26% Crash Bandicoot
21.09% Kratos Aurion
20.22% Lloyd Irving
20.15% Raiden
20.13% Frank West
19.86% Sam Fisher
19.37% Vergil
19.01% Zidane Tribal
18.92% Jak
18.79% Captain Falcon
18.72% Pit
18.69% Tom Nook
18.64% Frog
18.55% Axel
18.43% KOS-MOS
18.20% Meta Knight
17.68% Revolver Ocelot
17.60% Isaac
17.56% Agent 47
16.91% Thrall
16.54% Little Mac
16.18% Pyramid Head
15.96% Bidoof
15.84% The Boss
15.67% Arthas Menethil
15.60% Miles 'Tails' Prower
15.57% Jill Valentine
15.42% Diablo
15.35% Princess Peach
14.69% Tommy Vercetti
14.61% Ratchet
14.30% Chris Redfield
13.93% Serge
13.07% Banjo
12.53% Zelos Wilder
11.81% Simon Belmont
11.52% Matt (Wii Sports)
11.22% CATS
11.06% Sarah Kerrigan
10.14% Toad
10.11% Pac-Man
9.54% Vaan
9.44% PaRappa
9.13% Miles Edgeworth
8.99% Wander
8.45% Jade Curtiss
7.62% Tingle
5.51% Midgar Zolom
4.41% Agent J
ejm5446 | Posted 9/26/2007 3:34:34 AM | message detail
We're over 3 million votes total for this contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/26/2007 6:43:03 AM | message detail
This topic isn't finished yet.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 24: Leon Kennedy > Vivi Points: 66/92
Master Moltar | Posted 9/26/2007 6:47:41 AM | message detail
Not much has changed since last night...Leon and Vivi are only about 2% off from where I put them, but this still seems really impressive for Leon.

And Spyro day vote beast confirmed. Up to 9%!!!!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Leon/Ridley/Spyro/Vivi- Bracket: Leon > Vivi - Vote: Leon (75/92)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2007 8:30:51 AM | message detail
Yeah, this match is done.

Kirby: over or under 55% tomorrow?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/26/2007 8:36:16 AM | message detail
Under. If Dante couldn't get 50% against his weakass competition, I doubt Kirby could do 5% better against a guy with a niche (but very devoted) fanbase and a true joke character. However, Nathan Harle could be one of those "way under 10%" characters, so he does have that on his side.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/26/2007 8:41:52 AM | message detail
Yeah, I could see Nathan being the biggest loser of the contest -- between PS3's numbers here and how "well" Resistance did in the GotY-polls (~70% in the PS3-GotY, yet ~1.5% in the first overall-GotY), not to mention it's a FPS character...there is a LOT of potential to see major suckage.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2007 8:51:35 AM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION:If we had seedings in this contest people would have picked differently,subconcsiously as well.

I've been saying this since before the contest, so FACT.

As for Kirby tomorrow, I can't see him breaking 50%. His fourpack is comparable to Dante's, except I can see L-block getting alot of support. At least 25%. I'd say Laharl and Mac are about equal, and Nathan and Matt should also be about equal. I'd probably take L-block over Amatasersasru pretty easily. Plus I'd take Dante to comfortably beat Kirby.

TuRtLe
~~~
67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 8:58:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, I could see Nathan being the biggest loser of the contest -- between PS3's numbers here and how "well" Resistance did in the GotY-polls (~70% in the PS3-GotY, yet ~1.5% in the first overall-GotY), not to mention it's a FPS character...there is a LOT of potential to see major suckage.

Resistance got 1.5% in a GOTY poll? Wow, I was actually expecting Hale to break 10% tomorrow. I guess he won't, sadly.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2007 9:02:03 AM | message detail
I'm actually feeling pretty confident in Laharl taking second place in tomorrow's match. I don't think it will be close. If Laharl breaks 20%, it's over.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
BDawg | Posted 9/26/2007 9:02:22 AM | message detail
Man Vivi needs to stop the random stalls and let Leon get back over 40% before the afterschool vote. Why? I dunno I would just like it.
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Should I start running now?
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 9:03:37 AM | message detail
I'm actually feeling pretty confident in Laharl taking second place in tomorrow's match. I don't think it will be close. If Laharl breaks 20%, it's over.

Not be close? I think you're forgetting about L-block there. Or how much do you expect Kirby to get tomorrow?

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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2007 9:04:56 AM | message detail
I honestly think the L-Block is going to bomb hard, especially with Kirby there to drain a considerable amount of its casual support.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2007 9:12:21 AM | message detail
Oh, and Kirby is going to utterly maul this fourpack. He's easily going to be the only non-noble niner to break 50% in a match. I have doubts about his strength, but come on, look at how pathetic his fourpack is - A cult character, a Tetris block, and Nathan Hale.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 9:13:13 AM | message detail
I honestly think the L-Block is going to bomb hard, especially with Kirby there to drain a considerable amount of its casual support.

Kirby will indeed suck away a lot of his support. But still, here's how I see it : Kirby gets ~50%, Laharl ~18, Nathan ~12, and L-block picks up the remaining percentages.

Kirby may get a bit more and Nathan may very well get a bit less (considering that GOTY poll), but I can't see Laharl too far away from that percentage.

L-block has a lot more potential, at least. Kirby's a pestering plague for it, but I still think it'll pull through.

Putting that aside, how do you see the percentages being spread? I can't imagine being very comfortable about this match.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2007 9:15:01 AM | message detail
Eh, I have it at:

Kirby - 55%
L-Block - 18%
Laharl - 22%
Nathan Hale - 5%
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2007 9:19:38 AM | message detail
Like I said, Kirby's pack is stronger than Dante's, and Dante is stronger than Kirby.

He won't be coming close to 50% tomorrow.

I'll be surprised with 45%.

TuRtLe
~~~
67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 9:20:00 AM | message detail
^ Oh. Very possible, but I wouldn't exactly call that 'bomb horribly' for L-block :p I think that's somewhere along the lines of what people are expecting out of it?

Whatever. Yeah it'll be between Laharl and L-block tomorrow, I can see it going either way, really. Not comfortable about my bracket there at all.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/26/2007 9:20:44 AM | message detail
Kirby- 45%
L-block 25%
Laharl 20%
Nathan 10%

TuRtLe
~~~
67/92 in the contest. Next pick: Leon > Vivi
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 9/26/2007 9:24:29 AM | message detail
I was actually being rather generous to the Tetris block. I think it can actually do worse.

And I don't see why people are underestimating Laharl. He can easily match Ammy's percentage on Dante. In 2005, he got 27% against Yoshi which, if you put Yoshi at Dante's level, has Laharl at 19.01% on BL. Damn good for such a cult character, but obviously you can't take the number at face value. What this does tell me, however, is that there is a (pretty significant in terms of this match) block of GameFAQs voters that will vote Laharl over anything else. I think his rabid following will be enough for him to take second over a nerfed joke entry.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
Lopen | Posted 9/26/2007 9:45:10 AM | message detail
Kirby, an L-Block, and Nathan Hale should not be considered far above Yoshi in strength. I doubt Laharl goes too far below 27%.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The Real Truth | Posted 9/26/2007 9:51:05 AM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe
Posted 9/26/2007 9:19:38 AM
message detail Like I said, Kirby's pack is stronger than Dante's, and Dante is stronger than Kirby


I disagree, I mean about Kirby's pack being stronger. Amaterasu has proven to not completely suck and L-Block stronger than Little Mac? No.
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The Real Truth | Posted 9/26/2007 9:51:45 AM | message detail
I just hope Laharl can do well enough to take second place. He really is an awesome character, his games are just so unpopular.
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GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site. -CJayC
consolefreak | Posted 9/26/2007 9:58:33 AM | message detail
Btw, I can totally see Kirby failing to break 50%, which makes it all the better for L-block.
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71/92. Today : Leon > Vivi. Tomorrow : Kirby > L-Block
*One_Winged_Ange*
neonreaper | Posted 9/26/2007 10:02:40 AM | message detail
hey
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
neonreaper | Posted 9/26/2007 10:06:05 AM | message detail
I think L Block is
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
neonreaper | Posted 9/26/2007 10:06:55 AM | message detail
a cow
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
BesaidGuy | Posted 9/26/2007 10:11:46 AM | message detail
Kirby is going to look godly after his 4 pack.

I expect Nathan Hale to get the least amount of votes in this contest.

L-Block loses the casual vote to Kirby and loses the joke/cult vote to Laharl.

Laharl might perform better than most expect him to, but still nothing impressive.

Kirby for 47-50%

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FuturamandFFX/TheRealoSix
AndyManCan's favorite user
neonreaper | Posted 9/26/2007 10:14:47 AM | message detail
not sure why I originally thought L Block would do really well in this round, but there I have him, in second place. doh
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
Shaggy_Heru | Posted 9/26/2007 10:16:30 AM | message detail
I have L-Block in second too.

hopefully that won't turn out as bad as picking Matt.

~Shaggy~
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Turn, I challenge you to go for a year without drinking anything alcoholic, with no outside help on quitting. If you aren't addicted, you'd do it easily.
fcgroningen | Posted 9/26/2007 10:16:58 AM | message detail
and 500
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see my quote
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/471/spambuccaou5.jpg
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