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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 497

transience | Posted 9/23/2007 11:18:53 PM | message detail
he might win the night vote, but the day vote *has* to go to Ada here, especially considering the first couple of hours.

besides, these aren't update wins, they're one vote stalls. 960 more to go !!
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xyzzy
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Ngamer64 | Posted 9/23/2007 11:19:17 PM | message detail
BEST OF 2006: Best PlayStation 2 Game
Bully 6.19% 5331
Disgaea 2: Cursed Memories 4.12% 3546
Final Fantasy XII 30.04% 25888
Guitar Hero II 14.09% 12144
Kingdom Hearts II 24.6% 21202
Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence 12.62% 10878
Okami 8.33% 7182
TOTAL VOTES 86171

And yet... Ammy not only beat Mac and Matt, she's going to (it seems) beat Balthier next round as well? Ahhhhhh *head explodes*

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/23/2007 11:22:47 PM | message detail
There'll definitely be some FF12/Okami SFF right thurr.
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dlcb1 | Posted 9/23/2007 11:23:21 PM | message detail
I was as about as confident as one could be that Little Mac would take second last match, and that poll was a major reason why.

And there goes Ada again.
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HMMMmmmMMMMMmmmmm...............
HaRRicH | Posted 9/23/2007 11:26:15 PM | message detail
As somebody who has Dante > Balthier > Matt/Ada, it's REALLY weird for me to think Ammy could make it to Round Three.

That said, I bet that's an upset so few people took...and I don't like any of them in the next round. Let's go, upset-gods.....
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transience | Posted 9/23/2007 11:27:07 PM | message detail
I think that threepack for second is a toss-up. can't wait for that.. at least the first five minutes. after that, it should be over.
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xyzzy
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/23/2007 11:30:54 PM | message detail
And yet... Ammy not only beat Mac and Matt, she's going to (it seems) beat Balthier next round as well? Ahhhhhh *head explodes*

She was just lucky that Matt got in over Axel Steel. :o
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/23/2007 11:36:08 PM | message detail
I think we can all agree....

lol FFXII.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/23/2007 11:37:04 PM | message detail
Hey, just for kicks, I'm gonna compare the Tales of... characters for a second:

Kratos got 21.09% (3rd) on Scorpion and outdid Agent 47.
Lloyd got 20.22% (3rd) on Zero and outdid Jak.
Zelos got 12.53% (4th) on Marcus Fenix while Tom Nook took third.
Jade currently has 9.37% (4th) on Ada Wong where Frank West has third.


Come on Jade...ToS or not, you're looking pitiful!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/23/2007 11:38:11 PM | message detail
One more thing -- I wonder how accurate Vaan really was in his match now.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/23/2007 11:40:17 PM | message detail
Also, Jade'll probably sink to like 8%.

lol TotA.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
transience | Posted 9/24/2007 12:03:07 AM | message detail
Jade looks fine for what he is -- a guy from a game that sold as much as Shadow Hearts. this is a guy that should have been pegged around Yuri's level.
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xyzzy
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Lopen | Posted 9/24/2007 12:03:53 AM | message detail
Wow. I expected Vaan to suck it up... Balthier is the guy we need to be loling about now.

I have to think he makes these %s closer by the time the match wins... though I can't see FFXII winning the day vote against RE4, so I dunno.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2007 12:07:34 AM | message detail
I'm still not sure that Balthier loses next round though, even if he wins here. In a match between two close weak characters, give me Balthier to hold up better with Dante around.

But I won't mind if he doesn't for my bracket, it makes Vivi outlasting Leon in the divisional finals look that much better.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Keno316 | Posted 9/24/2007 12:11:04 AM | message detail
I still can't get over how ****ing weird my thoughts for this division must have been.

I mean, I have Ada > Balthier now, but Dante >Balthier in round 2. And then Dante > Balthier again in the Div. Finals.

Not to mention I have Tidus > Vivi when I have Leon > Vivi first.


...Ugh! What the hell was I thinking?! I can't make sense of my logic.
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transience | Posted 9/24/2007 12:13:17 AM | message detail
heh, yeah, if you have Vivi, cheer like hell for Ada.
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ZFStix: ninin! I always wanted to be a ninja! nWn ... XD
ZFStix: kill it
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/24/2007 12:16:19 AM | message detail
lol 4.72% update for Jade...
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Keno316 | Posted 9/24/2007 12:17:54 AM | message detail
He's gonna be getting single digit updates soon...
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transience | Posted 9/24/2007 12:23:27 AM | message detail
*claps*
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2007 12:25:55 AM | message detail
*claps*
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Big Bob | Posted 9/24/2007 12:26:26 AM | message detail
I would EASILY take Yuri to beat Jade. Not even a second thought.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2007 12:28:15 AM | message detail
I would probably take a year off from the contests if I had to predict that match. Out of principle.
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transience | Posted 9/24/2007 12:30:57 AM | message detail
Yuri gets 12% on Jade, dammit.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Kaxon | Posted 9/24/2007 1:06:45 AM | message detail
From: Keno316 | Posted: 9/23/2007 10:58:41 PM | Message Detail | #345
Oh its should. I tried to make sense of it, trying to think Samus was getting the same treatment within the female side of the bracket that Sephiroth was getting in the VC. ...But then she looks to have overperformed on Ada...its just absolutely non sensical.


From: creativename | Posted: 9/23/2007 11:00:05 PM | Message Detail | #347
I think Ada is very likely a lot stronger than last year, and would get higher than 20% on Samus in a rematch.

Not to say the female bracket is worth much though.


I think Ada's probably somewhat stronger than last year, but I think part of the blame lies with Samus. Don't forget we've seen her do that before, against Lara and Sam Fisher in 2004. She can't SFF a Nintendo character to save her life, but for some reason she can blow out high fodder with the best of 'em.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/24/2007 1:10:21 AM | message detail
Samus is weeeeiiiird.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/24/2007 1:12:23 AM | message detail
Samus and Snake should be a couple. They are known to blow out fodder.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2007 1:12:39 AM | message detail
Something we all should have learned by now: feminine-looking male RPG characters = HUGE fail. First Yuri, then Zelos, and now Jade Curtiss. I never would've imagined Jade from BG&E might be stronger than TotA Jade.

Anyway, I thought Ada underperformed against Samus... I still thought she was maybe around Vyse (2K4) in strength. She might be stronger than that, though. I wouldn't say this has to be all Balthier's weakness... Ada's doubling Frank West and quadrupling...uh, somebody. I feel pretty good about Ada Wong beating out Amaterasu next round, actually... I think Balthier and Ammy will be fighting for third place.

Balthier might get a good day vote...I'd guess it'd be a little better than Ada Wong's. Vaan did well during the day. Not saying he has a chance of catching up, though.

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transience | Posted 9/24/2007 1:13:28 AM | message detail
Yuri's feminine?

well, maybe if you judged him by that crappy picture. but trust me -- you couldn't be more wrong.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2007 1:15:00 AM | message detail
Well, in the pictures they looked feminine... =p

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2007 1:16:40 AM | message detail
Feminine looking RPG characters are weak? Man I know Sephiroth disappointed in round 1 this year but I didn't know he was traveling below the fodder line.

Oh snap forget Tidus. Serge > Pikachu easy there.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
transience | Posted 9/24/2007 1:16:44 AM | message detail
http://www.jvrpg.com/image_test/image635.jpg

maybe I'm just being defensive because this is my guy, but I disagree completely!
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Gaddswell | Posted 9/24/2007 1:18:47 AM | message detail
If Phoenix Wright or Gordon Freeman were in this fourpack instead of Ada, what % do they get?
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greatone10 | Posted 9/24/2007 1:49:13 AM | message detail
Freeman's practically in this fourpack as it is.
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This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Lopen | Posted 9/24/2007 1:49:21 AM | message detail
Mmmm, so I decided to go check out Ada's, Leon's, and Vaan's other matches.

Vaan gained over a % in the day vote.
Ada's strongest point in her matches was the night vote, easily.
Leon is iffy. Against Gordon Freeman he did worst with the first night vote, against Mega Man he did best, against Bowser it was just kinda balanced the whole time.

So I dunno, I guess Balthier should take the day vote, despite what intuition told me. Take it enough to actually make this match interesting? I have my doubts. But the %s should be closer at least, I think.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/24/2007 3:27:55 AM | message detail
lol Jade under 9%.

Is it me, or is there a long streak of matches to come that seem much more exciting than the last few matches?


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caps
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/24/2007 3:57:16 AM | message detail
how is Baltheir such fodder. Getting my first 1 point today ¬_¬
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AmazingKirby | Posted 9/24/2007 3:58:42 AM | message detail
Also, dont' look now but Ada, Thai, hooker, etc.
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caps
Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2007 4:17:50 AM | message detail
Huh, that was a pretty big cut by Balthier there.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
transience | Posted 9/24/2007 4:43:51 AM | message detail
this.. is very weird. this morning vote... I want to see how this ends up.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
swirIdude | Posted 9/24/2007 4:49:56 AM | message detail
I...I can't...comprehend....does not compute...Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/24/2007 4:50:45 AM | message detail
Heh, witness the power of the Balthier/Frank day vote tag team.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
swirIdude | Posted 9/24/2007 4:54:50 AM | message detail
Hmm...Ada Wong and Leon Kennedy in the same Round 3 poll...

I can't even begin to comprehend how that affects Leon.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/24/2007 5:01:28 AM | message detail
I mean, I would think Leon gets RE4 SFF support off of Ada, but she's the only female to be above 2006 expectations!
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NotTerrafire | Posted 9/24/2007 5:08:36 AM | message detail
With that picture, Ada is going to look a lot stronger than she actually is. I'm a Final Fantasy fan, but I considered voting for her even though I've hardly played a Resident Evil game!

So yeah, don't read too much into it.
transience | Posted 9/24/2007 5:08:49 AM | message detail
looks like we've pushed back into night trends.. but Balthier may very well "win" the day and end up looking a lot better than we thought he would.

odd.
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ZFStix: nin nin nin ima ninja!!! nin nin nin XD
ZFStix: kill it
Haste_2 | Posted 9/24/2007 5:39:14 AM | message detail
I haven't looked at the next round much...let's see now...

Mega Man 1st - 99% chance; 2nd - 1% chance
Yoshi: 1st -1%; 2nd - 80%
Knuckles: 2nd - 18%
KOS-MOS: 2nd - 1%

Let's just see if Yoshi can be hit by SFF, but not Knuckles.

Samus: 1st - 100% [chance]
Scorpion: 2nd - 60%
Frog: 2nd - 39%
Midna: 2nd - 1%

Scorpion looks quite a bit stronger than Frog, but if Frog makes it close, it should be his.

Cloud: 1st - 100%
Ocelot: 2nd - 40%
Marcus: 2nd - 55%
Kefka: 2nd - 5%

Kefka might have a shot with an excellent sprite picture... perhaps.

Auron: 1st - 80%; 2nd - 19%
Shadow: 2nd - 1%
Bowser: 1st - 15%; 2nd - 50%
Ryu: 1st - 5%; 2nd - 30%

We knew this would be good from the beginning.

Sephiroth: 1st - 100%
Meta Knight: 2nd - 4%
Fox: 95%
Wario: 2nd - 1%

Fox is looking to dominate for second, but MK at the least looks stronger than Wario.

Mario: 1st - 100%
Big Boss: 2nd - 15%
Magus: 2nd - 80%
Phoenix: 2nd - 5%

Can BB or Phoenix cause a Board 8 uproar?

Link: 1st - 100%
Bidoof: 2nd - 1%
Vincent: 2nd - 99%

Uh...um... maybe Bidoof somehow has a shot? =p

Crono: 1st - 99%; 2nd - 1%
Raiden: 2nd - 4%
Zero: 1st - 1%; 2nd - 95%
HK-47: 2nd - 1%

Anything from the norm would be quite the shocker.

Ganondorf: 1st - 80%; 2nd - 15%
Luigi: 1st - 19%; 2nd - 70%
Mudkip: 1st - 1%; 2nd - 15%

I doubt anything special happens here...

Master Chief: 1st - 95%; 2nd - 5%
Yuna: 1st - 1%; 2nd - 50%
Alucard: 1st - 2% - 25%
Liquid Snake: 1st - 2% - 2nd - 20%

Hopefully the plan will mean something.

Dante: 1st -100%
Amaterasu: 2nd - 20%
Ada Wong; 2nd - 70%
Balthier: 10%...could vary depending on how much he closes in on Ada.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Who Cares? | Posted 9/24/2007 5:39:59 AM | message detail
Ada looking like she'll get to Round 3 really throws a wrench in my bracket, since most of it depends on the FF characters SFFing each other. Now, despite having Vivi > Leon on Wednesday, I'm cheering for Leon to beat him down so badly that Ada being in the poll won't matter and Dante > Leon still happens.
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Current Points: 68 -- 43rd on Leaderboard
Maximum Possible Points: 752/768
Master Moltar | Posted 9/24/2007 7:36:20 AM | message detail
Balthier doing a bit better now, but Ada's still rockin' him.

Alright, I'm hoping aboard the Ammy to Round 3 train. Ada's looking good here, and I like her, but if Ammy made Round 3...that would just be amazing. (Plus it helps Leon later! Dante > Leon, peeps!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Ada/Balthier/Frank/Jade - Bracket: Balthier > Ada - Vote: Ada (71/84)
nintendogirl1 | Posted 9/24/2007 8:16:50 AM | message detail
Ada looking like she'll get to Round 3 really throws a wrench in my bracket, since most of it depends on the FF characters SFFing each other. Now, despite having Vivi > Leon on Wednesday, I'm cheering for Leon to beat him down so badly that Ada being in the poll won't matter and Dante > Leon still happens.

Yeah, that's what I'm going for. Leon dominating, therefore showing proof of an RE4 Wii boost. <_< Then getting SFFed enough to get 2nd.
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Feels like straws.
BDawg | Posted 9/24/2007 8:34:24 AM | message detail
Psh forget Dante>Leon I need Leon>Dante, no way in hell do I want Ada to push into round 3. And Vivi is definitely a threat if the rest of the match becomes some shooter mosh pit.
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Should I start running now?
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