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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 497

therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2007 7:23:50 PM | message detail
I'm surprised we don't have a bunch of Wii fans jumping on an Ada bandwagon because of REWii
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Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend
transience | Posted 9/23/2007 7:26:09 PM | message detail
people here seem to think that RE1-3 and RE4 are tied at the hip. Chris sucked and Jill came up short against a character of approximately equal strength, so now Ada and Leon are going to bomb.

yeah. that's like saying Kefka losing means bad things for Auron or something. I'd love to see Vivi beat Leon... but it's not happening.
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xyzzy
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 7:29:37 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy (2005c) VS Vivi (2005c)

Leon Kennedy has a strength of 27.50.
Vivi has a strength of 27.26.

Leon Kennedy wins with 50.44% of the vote!
A win of 865 with 99,059 total votes cast.

Neither were behind any particularly anomalous matches (unless you think there was Capcom SFF in Mega Man/Leon for some reason). I'm suddenly worried about this match.

TuRtLe
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61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2007 7:31:27 PM | message detail
Well I'm one of the few gurus that have him in second, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ada was to blow Frank away.
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Match 21: Dante > Amaterasu Points: 59/80
greatone10 | Posted 9/23/2007 7:36:12 PM | message detail
When the characters are even like this, the next best option is to look at the games themselves. Does FF9 stand a chance against Resident Evil 4?
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2007 7:39:23 PM | message detail
Wow...this place was dead all day. Man this match was boring.
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transience | Posted 9/23/2007 7:41:31 PM | message detail
Vivi and Leon aren't equal. one-on-one, I'd expect a 60/40 match.

does Vivi go from 40% on Zelda to 45% on Bowser? don't think so, yo.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 9/23/2007 7:41:56 PM | message detail
oh, and that's not even factoring in any natural boosts RE4 will have had over the past year, not to mention that Wii port.
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xyzzy
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BDawg | Posted 9/23/2007 7:46:43 PM | message detail
It is funny to think Leon could be around Chris without RE4.
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 7:53:43 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy wins with 52.85% of the vote!
A win of 6,457 with 113,141 total votes cast.

Wow I thought Leon was further ahead.


God damn it, so did I! If I had looked up the stats I would've picked Vivi, I'm definitely rooting for him. And I don't pick against my favorites in close calls.

And after what we've seen in the contest so far, I'm tempted to even say Vivi deserves to be a slight favorite right now.
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 7:54:48 PM | message detail
Frank's picture definitely inspires confidence in him, for whatever reason. But really, I don't see how he beats Ada. His game is too obscure.
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 7:55:57 PM | message detail
Somebody should email solarshadow and tell him to come back just to make topic # 500 :)
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ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 8:00:38 PM | message detail
I've always thought Vivi had a shot at Leon in that match, but I'm not any more or less confident in the idea than I was before the start of the contest. RE characters that weren't in RE4 not doing well don't spell bad things for someone like Leon -- he's far and away ahead of any RE character. That said, I think Vivi's the perfect type of character who would excel in this format. I'd like to see him pull it off, but I dunno.

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let's mosey
creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 8:02:39 PM | message detail
Anyone concerned about the possibility of a Balthier flop tomorrow?

The match should be his, but he might disappoint %-wise.
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ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 8:08:21 PM | message detail
I'm not sure what the expectations are for Balthier, percentage-wise, but I think he's going to fine. I'm thinking something around 40% for him. The more the better, though!

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let's mosey
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/23/2007 8:09:42 PM | message detail
I admittedly know nothing about FFXII, but I'd be amazed if he pulled 40% after Vaan couldn't pull 10%.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:10:10 PM | message detail
Division 6: Round 1 - Match 22 – Ada Wong vs. Balthier Bunansa vs. Frank West vs. Jade Curtiss

Moltar’s Analysis

Ada
Game/Series Known From: Resident Evil
Seed in 2006: 4
Lost in 2006 to Samus in Round 2

Red Dress is back in action!

Balthier
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy XII

Not being named Vaan should help him out.

Frank
Game/Series Known From: Dead Rising

Another of those crazy 360 characters

Jade
Game/Series Known From: Tales of the Abyss

Another of those crazy Tales of characters

Too be honest, besides Ada, I don’t really know much about these characters. I have Balthier in first because he’s a liked character from FFXII, and Ada in second because I can’t see her being weaker than Frank West, whose name and game isn’t as big as Halo, Gears of War or KOTOR, and Jade.

So how about we switch things up? Have you ever wondered how it is being part of the Analysis Crew? You may think it looks easy, but there’s actually a ton of work that goes into the final product. Here’s a look at a promotional video which shows what goes on behind the scenes of the Crew.

~*Making Of: The Contest Analysis Crew*~

*Cheesy promotional video music begins, cue Moltar sitting in front of a desk*

Moltar: Hi, I’m Moltar. You may remember me from such other promotional videos as ‘GameFAQs: Not Such a Bad Place After All’, ‘Heaven Underwater: Rapture’, and ‘Barriers and You’. Today we’ll be looking at one of Board 8’s longest running traditions, the Contest Analysis Crew. Started in Spring 2004, the Crew has grown over the years. Not only in members, but in time needed and workload as well. Here’s a look at how this year’s Crew started out.

1. The Bracket

Moltar: The bracket is an important part of The Crew. Without it, we wouldn’t have a Contest or know what matches to right about. This year had a huge twist in the bracket, and once we saw it, we were excited. We couldn’t wait to start predicting.

*Scene switches to a large conference room with the Crew members sitting around a table, and Moltar in front of a large projected image of the bracket*

Moltar: As you guys can see, there have been a ton of changes this-

Yoblazer: First!

Ulti: Are you kidding me, 128 characters? Talk about a fodder-fest.

KH: I’ve seen better things come out of my rear…while I’m on the toilet.

HM: Hey, let me predict something. Link wins, I’m done.

Tran: These divisons are done…so poorly. Was a dartboard involved somewhere?

Lopen: …I kinda like it I guess.

Moltar: …

*Scene switches back to Motlar at the desk*

Moltar: Ah yes, and then after the bracket is announced, that’s when the work begins.

2. Writing The Analysis

*Scene switches to the work area, which is comprised of many decent-sized cubicles. Moltar begins to navigate them*

Moltar: Good to see you all are hard at work. How’s it coming along, Lopen.

Lopen: It’s good…I’m just trying to justify this pick of Dante winning the bracket. Hey, I’ve got it!

Moltar: …Okay then, and how about you HM?

HM: *in a Mario costume, with Mario items all over his cubicle* It’s going just fine!

Moltar: Ulti?

Ulti: All is good here.

Moltar: But…you aren’t doing anything.

Ulti: I’ll get to it later…*quietly* Not so rough.

Moltar: What was that?

Ulti: Oh nothing.

*Moltar walks away, and out from underneath Ulti’s desk pops out a random female*

Ulti: I didn’t say stop.

Moltar: So HM, wh-*sees HM dressed up as Cloud, with FF7 items all over his cubicle* How…did you do that?!

HM: *innocently* Do what?

Moltar: Nevermind…*starts to walk away* Oh, by the way. *turns back to see HM dressed up as Link, with Zelda items all over his cubicle* …
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:10:31 PM | message detail
*Scene switches back to Motlar at the desk*

Moltar: Ahh, the workplace, such a friendly environment. Speaking of friendly environments, you can’t get much better than being a part of the Crew. All of our new recruits are welcomed with open arms and smiles. We make sure we try our hardest to have you feel like you’re part of the family.

3. Greeting the Newcomers

*In the conference room*

Moltar: I’d like you all to say hello to the newest member of the Crew, Transience!

Tran: It’s an honor to be working with you all. To begin, I’d like to show you guys this theory I’ve been working on. Looking at past and current trends, I think it looks pretty accurate.

Yo: Hold on………Did somebody just say weeaboo?

Tran: Wait, excuse me?

Yo: Because I think I just heard somebody say weeaboo.

*Everyone pulls out a paddle and starts to advance towards Tran*

Tran: What are you guys doing?!

*They pull down his pants and begin paddling him while chanting*

*Scene switches back to Motlar at the desk*

Moltar: Haha, we just love our new guys. You know, we always see new faces in these parts. Thanks to our Guest spot, which started last year, now anyone can see what it’s like to be a part of the Crew for a day.

4. Our Guests

*In the conference room*

Moltar: So, here is our Guest write-up for the match. Take a look and tell me what you think!

KH: …Are you serious?

HM: Oh my…this is really off.

Ulti: What a horrible write-up. Typos everywhere and failed humor.

Yo: He has him getting THAT much? Character Battle Champion confirmed.

KH: Our brackets are so screwed. *Everyone laughs*

Lopen: You can tell this guy’s never been in the spotlight before. A 2 page write-up for a match this easy? He tried so hard and no one’s even going to read it! *Everyone laughs even harder*

Moltar: Um…guys? Our Guest is right here. *Guest embarassingly waves to them*

Everyone: Uh..oh, yeah, nice job. You did well. Nice write-up, good pick…*everyone becomes silent*

Tran: …Can you just leave so we can go back to making fun of you?

*Scene switches back to Motlar at the desk*

Moltar: Ah yes, now you can see why we get so many Guest requests. Now, after all the write-ups for a match are finished, we put them all together in one tidy package. We may disagree on something, but in the end, we always reach a consensus.

5. The Final Touches

*In the conference room*

Moltar: So this is the consensus for the match. Sound good?

Lopen: If by good you mean wrong, then yeah, it does.

Tran: I’m telling you, it just isn’t going to happen.

KH: Here, since I’ve got the biggest bracket-wang here, I’ll decide.

Ulti: I’d beg to differ.

EC: *pops up from underneath Ulti* I agree with that! Aww yeah.

Moltar: Ulti! What did I say about inviting your guests in here?

Ulti: *sigh* Alright guys, party’s over. You know where to find me later. *several ‘awws’ are heard and EC, along with several females, a midget, a clown, a fish, and a horse exit the room*

Moltar: …..Anyway, where were we.

Lopen: We were agreeing that the consensus is that KH is a massive tool.

KH: That’s it! We’re throwing down! *KH jumps on the table at tackles Lopen, and the two duke it out.*

HM and Yo: I love these! *grabs popcorn*

*The other Crew members gather around making bets on the match and rooting on their pick*

*10 minutes later*

Lopen: Let’s just agree to disagree.

KH: …Okay.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:11:13 PM | message detail
*Scene switches back to Motlar at the desk*

After that, the write-ups are sent out to the masses, for all eyes to read. And that’s how the Analysis Crew works. I hope you all appreciated this behind the scenes look at the hard work we put into the Crew. Hopefully, someday, you’ll be right alongside us, as a part of the Crew. Thank you, and good day.

Cameraman: What’s even the point of this. Why are you making a video in order to get people to be a part of the Crew? You limit the Crew to a small number of people, and you hand pick whoever belongs on the Crew yourself!

Moltar: Shut up and stop the filming! Or else your other son gets the you-know-what.

Cameraman: Yessir. *Video ends, credits scroll through quickly*

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Balthier > Ada > Frank > Jade

Moltar’s Prediction is: Balthier: 40% - Ada: 30% - Frank: 19% - Jade: 11%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

This match is so obvious that it's funny. Frank West COVERED WARS YOU KNOW, and is the main character of Dead Rising. Dead Rising has a following, but not a large one. At least, not large enough to compete with RE4 or FF12. And Jade is even easier a classification: Tales of the Abyss is not Tales of Symphonia.

The only point of contention here is who comes in first place. Ada Wong has been in a contest before and won a match, while this is Balthier's debut. However despite this and FF12 being an ensemble cast, Balthier is FF12's Auron; he's the cold, cool badass that knows too much and carries the story despite not being the main character. We can guarantee that Balthier > Vaan already after seeing the contest's first match (good god did Vaan suck), but Balthier > Ada shouldn't be too much of a stretch. Could you see Balthier losing to some of the characters close to Ada in the 2006 stats? Celes is one of them, which is telling. Would you pick Balthier to beat Celes? I wouldn't.

Ulti's Prediction:

Balthier [36.00%]
Ada Wong [30.00%]
Frank West [20.00%]
Jade Curtiss [14.00%]



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Balthier – 40%
Ada Wong – 31%
Frank West – 17%
Jade Curtiss – 12%


After Vaan’s poor performance at the beginning of the contest, there’s probably a number of people who are a bit suspect of what Balthier’s strength, but I’m still pretty sold on him being pretty strong -- Balthier > Midna believe! At the least, he shouldn’t have any trouble handling this pack with ease; there’s nothing but fodder here. If he can’t do well here, though, then yeah, I’d be in agreement with those thinking that FF12 just isn’t going to putting out much strength.

Second place is pretty locked up, too. Some folks are talking about Frank West doing something after seeing characters like Master Chief and Marcus Fenix perform well, but he is in such a different league from those two. Dead Rising doesn’t have near the popularity of Halo or Gears of War. It’s asking an awful lot of him to take second here against Ada. Sure, Resident Evil hasn’t been too hot in this contest so far, but Ada Wong being a pretty major player in RE4 should change that quite a bit.

There’s a certain advantage you get by being in what is by far the most popular game in the series. People can argue RE2 or whatever, but there’s no way that any of those games even begin to touch RE4. Combined with the release on the Wii, I think Ada’s in a fine position -- much better than Frank West at the least. And as far as Jade is concerned, we’re looking at a dude who will be lucky to get 13%. Tales characters, for the most part, have performed way too poorly here to think he’s got a shot at anything.

But the highlight of this match is definitely the leading man! Taking him here with 40% almost seems a bit too low, although that may be me being a fanboy! Here’s to hoping he dominates this match!

Bracket: Balthier > Ada
Vote: Balthier
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:11:43 PM | message detail
Yoblazer’s Analysis

If it weren't for the most attractively drawn female character in gaming, I'd really, really, really want to skip this damn match. Despite being a true gamer and GameFAQs junkie, I get the feeling that I don't play quite as many games as most of my fellow Board 8ers. As such, I've never been introduced to three of these four characters. When something like that happens, it's kind of difficult to even feign excitement.

The three characters who are new to me are also new to the contest. They are Balthier Bunansa, Frank West, and Jade Curtiss. Our returning veteran, who has competed in a grand total of two matches, is Ada Wong. Not much experience between these four. Now, since we've seen practically nothing of all the entrants, things could get extremely unpredictable, but the heavy favorite going in is Balthier. He is, apparently, the most well-liked character from FFXII. That's all well and good, but watching Vaan give us a disappointing performance for the ages doesn't exactly make me feel any better about Balthier's chances. Unlike Vaan, however, Balthier has some advantages. First and foremost, people actually like him. Secondly, he's not splitting the vote with any other FF/Square/RPG characters. Thirdly, we can safely surmise that his competition is weak as ass. He should take this. Lord, I've missed four of the last five matches; PLEASE let him take this.

The board favorite for second place is the lovely, sexy, awesomely deadly Ada Wong, from Resident Evil fame. Personally, I don't have as much confidence in Ada's chances as I'd like to. She may be from the most popular, well received game of the bunch, but she's nowhere near Leon's level, and she's up against the tournament's newest killer: XBOX.

After watching Marcus Fenix, Sam Fisher, and Master Chief lay the smack down, it would be completely foolish to write off Frank West here. He's not as iconic (nor is his game as popular) as those other guys, but he's up against weaker competition, and his picture screams "badass" to the nth degree. Jade Curtiss, whoever the heck she is, has no chance, but Ada and Frank may give us fireworks in a contest that's already seen its fair share of them. In fact, don;t be surprised if we actually see a tight race for first; I'm weary about this Balthier.

Balthier Bunansa - 31%
Ada Wong - 29%
Frank West - 28%
Jade Curtiss - 12%



Lopen’s Analysis

Balthier is the decisive favorite going into this match. Looking at Vaan, people might have their doubts... but let me just make this clear: No one likes Vaan. That's really all there is to it. Yes, FFXII might not be the paragon of popularity here, but a character from it that doesn't suck will do fine. And Balthier more than doesn't suck, he's easily the favorite character from that game. He's got this pack o fodder well in hand.

As for the other slot? I'm not as sure as I'd like to be for this one. Frank West has a case because X-Box is doing so well, and Jade Curtiss even has an offshot just because Tales characters have been doing... well... okay, ToS characters that aren't Zelos have been doing okay.

My money, however, is on Ada Wong. She's got the TJF advantage over Jade, and ZKF (Zombie Killer Factor, for those keeping score at home) advantage over Frank West. Seriously though: Ada Wong probably gives Lloyd Irving a fairly close match, and Tales of the Abyss ain't not no ToS. Frank West... well, he isn't Marcus Fenix. Dead Rising wasn't quite the same league of hit as the other X-Box powers had this year.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:12:24 PM | message detail
Doubt RE because it's been sucking this year, but we ain't seen RE4 yet. Ada Wong is the safe pick for second, and she's who I'm picking. Heck, something fishy might've even happened with her against Samus... the way I see it, you can't be that weak and destroy something 75-25. Unless Jade is Tanner's brother. Not this Jade. Not the ninja chick either. The other Jade.

Lopen's Prediction:

Balthier Bunansa - 35.04%
Ada Wong - 27.88%
Jade Curtiss - 19.04%
Frank West - 18.04%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

A newcomer with a ridiculous range, a returning fodder from a popular game, a newcomer with much less of a range, and a uy that looks like a girl. Um... ratings?

Ada Wong

Another fodder from RE enters the fray, with one big difference - she's of RE4 pedigree. Ada seems to me like an opponent that folds big against legitimate competition, but gets a lot of 'default' votes against unknowns.

...and to some extent or another, all of her opponents here qualify as that.

Balthier Bunansa

With the failure of Midna, Balthier stands as the one remaining hope for the 'legit' new characters (I don't think Mewtwo, eligible since the first contest, exactly counts). He's considerably more of a fan-favorite (called the Auron of his game), but from a MUCH less popular game. His range is staggering - and for those thick-headed enough to forget what that means, he can either soar to strong midcarder or plummet to fodder level.

But let's look at the bright side, Vaan is his floor! <.<

Frank West

Another character that stands to parade a much new hyped up fear - that of the Xbox. While Dead Rising ain't that popular, Frank West is getting a surprising amount of support to place in this match. I don't buy it - but if it happens, the Xboxfear is legit.

Jade Curtiss

Three points:

1.) ToS characters have ranged from minor to massive disappointments this contest
2.) Jade is a Tales character NOT from Symphonia
3.) HE'S A GUY

...oh god

Okay, let's push Jade out of the picture, because if he places I'm not going to be coherent enough to form complete sentences anyway. Balthier has a wide range, but it would be pretty hard for him to place below Ada - not patently impossible, but considering the format and his reception, I seriously doubt it. So it comes down to Ada vs Frank West... and all I really see in Frank's corner aside from the newly christened Xboxfear is his picture advantage.

It really shouldn't happen here, considering. But we get surprises every other match, so I'm just rolling with it.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Balthier Bunansa. I never miss.
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Balthier Bunansa with 39%, Ada Wong with 27%, Frank West with 21%, Jade Curtiss with 13%

Looks like I'm taking fan-favorite faith in Balthier. Good thing he's awesome enough to deserve it !! Also I'm taking Frank West higher than I like partially to Xboxfear and partially because JADE CURTISS IS GOING TO SUCK

Upset Probability: 30%

teh Xboxfear



Transience’s Analysis

I've heard some doubts about Balthier lately, and I can kind of understand why. everyone new has pretty much bombed outside of Marcus Fenix. Vaan did pretty bad (though I thought that was expected), Midna did poorly, Raiden.. everyone new seems to be floundering a bit.

fortunately for our brackets, it's not going to matter even if he does bomb. I can't see him losing to Ada Wong, Frank West and Jade Curtiss. come on, that's one weak pack right there. Ada might put a little scare into him because she's from the most popular game, but Balthier's quite the fan-favourite and should have nothing to worry about here.
ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 8:12:39 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 8:13:00 PM | message detail
I've heard some hype for Frank West lately because Xbox characters have been doing well. I can't help but laugh at these -- this is Frank West. boring name, boring guy, boring character design. I don't think Dead Rising is a huge title on this site, not like RE4 is. even a side character from RE4 can beat a bum like Frank West. I give Ada a better chance of beating Balthier than Frank of beating Ada

oh, and Jade Curtiss is going to do freaking awful. he's got all of Zelos's character design woes along with one-fifth of the sales. it's amazing what being a GC title will do for you. Jade seems to be universally liked among the Abyss fanbase, but I think its sales are Shadow Hearts-esque. we could be looking at a real low number here.

Frank West? Jade Curtiss?
Balthier and Ada win big
WAIT, JADE IS A BOY?

transience's prediction: Balthier with 37.55%, Ada with 32.66%, Frank West with 18.95%, Jade with 10.84%


Guest’s Analysis - PokemonPatriarch

Ada Wong:Miss “***** in the red dress” makes a not-so glorious return to the contest field after getting 80-20’d by Samus Aran last year. I still love you Ada. :(

Balthier Bunansa: Mister “I think I’m a new-age Setzer” makes his debut to the contest field, and in style!

Frank West: Mister zombie-tographer gets a “rise” out of the competition…get it?!

Jade Curtiss: Mister “Leave Britney Alone”, only now he has a compelling character, glasses, and military rank. You’ve really turned your life around after that video, Chris!

Now that we know the characters a bit better (or worse :P), let’s take a look at their viability…

For starters, Jade is surefire fodder. The “Tales of…” series has done a poor job representing in this contest, and since Jade is even more obscure than Zelos, “non-GoW” Kratos, or Lloyd, he’s likely to be dead last. Frank, however, is a harder to figure out. “Dead Rising” is a relatively popular X-Box title, but that’s just it: X-Box-exclusive popularity means nothing except for Master Chief and Marcus Fenix. I may be completely wrong, but for now let’s just think of Frank as a slightly better tanner, with a whole lot of unpredictability. In other words: both are extreme fodder, but because nobody likes a girly man, and because some “RPG” SFF will be going on (don’t kill me for suggesting it), I think Jade will get last.

That only leaves Ada and Balthier, but the real question is…who gets first? In situations like these I prefer proven characters, which neither of these guys are. Ada, as previously mentioned, looked like CATS when up against Samus. Although in most situations she “should” have enough going for her (GotY 2005, strong/sexy/mysterious female character/etc), that loss to Samus is enough to make me give the nod to Balthier. In addition to having the all-important Squeenix name behind him, Balthier carries Vaan’s weight the same way Auron carries Tidus’: since the leads are so unpopular, people need a firm supporting character to rally around. In other words, he’s the ONLY person FFXII fans want to vote for that made the contest!

1st: Balthier (30.5%)
2nd: Ada (28.5%)
3rd: Frank (16.8%)
4th: Chris Crocker (14.2%)


Although I’m putting Balthier in first, there’s at least a 5% margin of error, should Ada’s egg-laying to Samus be a complete fluke. Regardless, I think it’ll be close either way, unless Balth really comes out smoking.

Peace!



Crew Consensus: Balthier > Ada...yep.
ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 8:13:39 PM | message detail
I admittedly know nothing about FFXII, but I'd be amazed if he pulled 40% after Vaan couldn't pull 10%.

There should be a world of difference between Balthier and Vaan, I think. Vaan might be the most disliked character in FF12 whereas Balthier is far and away the most liked. He doesn't have to worry about any stronger Square character sapping any of his strength either. He could end up flopping, though, but I'm not expecting it. If he does, it'd be safe to completely write off FF12 as being poor, or at least its characters. This is the best it has to offer right here.

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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 8:29:40 PM | message detail
40% sounds high. Most predictions seems to be int he mid or high 30's. I think there's a chance he might struggle a bit to crack 30% though, especially if Frank is tougher than expected.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/23/2007 8:30:18 PM | message detail
Who the hell is Motlar and why does the scene keep switching back to him at the desk?
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therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2007 8:32:58 PM | message detail
I don't think much of Balthier, but then again, I haven't played FFXII so I can't say much. It just feels like people are forcing him to be a strong character. Kinda like "somebody MUST be strong from FFXII, and Balthier is the most liked character, so there ya go!". I just don't see the same general buzz from ANY of the characters in FFXII like there was with FFX and Auron.
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 8:36:38 PM | message detail
But you could expect Auron to double Balthier (before SFF) and Balthier should still win this match comfortably.
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ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 8:38:33 PM | message detail
Well, he's not going to be near Auron. That's not even a question. But him having some legitimate strength of his own should be pretty likely, unless most people just don't care about FF12. Regardless of people's feelings about the actual game, most come away loving Balthier. Whether or not they come away feeling he's one of their all-time favorite characters is another story, but he should be well above fodder for sure. I'd be surprised if he wasn't. Maybe I'm overestimating FF12 or something, I dunno.

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swirIdude | Posted 9/23/2007 8:39:49 PM | message detail
It'd be funny if someone keeps Balthier from going to Round 3...but how can Ammy or Ada/Frank stop him?
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therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2007 8:41:01 PM | message detail
Oh, I never said Balthier wouldn't win this pack. I just said I still don't think much of him. I know some people were calling for him to be a high midcarder before. I don't think he'd beat Rikku myself. But then again, I know nothing about him except for board 8 hype.
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therealmnm | Posted 9/23/2007 8:42:04 PM | message detail
And I wish Balthier didn't have a ticket to round 3, because I seriously would have taken Vivi for an upset there. Balthier's presence will hurt him though...
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transience | Posted 9/23/2007 8:48:22 PM | message detail
I'd take Rikku in such a matchup. I still think Balthier will wreck this pack.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 8:50:15 PM | message detail
Round 1- Division 5 Group B

Characters Involved:

Ada Wong


Summer 2006 Contest
Spazer Division - 4 Seed

Spazer Round 1 --- Defeated (5) Jade, 74498 [75.89%] - 23669 [24.11%]
Spazer Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Samus, 24923 [20.22%] - 98352 [79.78%]
Extrapolated Strength --- 48th Place [20.22%]


The only splash Ada made in her contest debut came from how badly she flopped against Samus in round 2. But the fact that she managed to triple somebody (even if that somebody is likely lower than even Tanner) says something. She's in contention for second place here.

Balthier

The leading man himself makes his contest debut fresh off of Final Fantasy 12. Easily the favourite to take this fourpack and go to at least round 3 with Dante, he hopes to perform better than newcomer Midna did, and much much better than cast-mate Vaan did.

Frank West

Dead Rising is another new game that came out in the past year, but people seem to think Frank might suffer from Gordon Freeman syndrome. Personally, I think he has a great shot at second here, given how well Marcus and Master Chief have performed this year.

Jade Curtiss

A new spin on 2 old contest jokes, Jade is a Tales character looking to be even weaker than last year's Jade. STOP NOMINATING PILES OF CRAP FROM CRAPPY GAMES GODDAMNIT!

Predictions:

A match that seemed a lock pre-contest, most have Balthier > Ada here, but Jill and Chris bombing, every other female not named Samus bombing and X-Box characters performing greatly have all inspired confidence in Frank.

Dead Rising is nowhere near the popularity of Gears of War, but Ada is no Kefka, that's for sure. Hell, there's even an outside chance of Balthier completely bombing, but I think he'll establish himself as a decent midcarder this year.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Balthier 35%, Ada 26%, Frank 25%, Jade 14%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Balther > Ada
TuRtLe's Vote: Han So... I mean, Balthier


TuRtLe
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61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Frank West | Posted 9/23/2007 8:51:43 PM | message detail
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
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transience | Posted 9/23/2007 8:53:21 PM | message detail
more of Ondore's Lies !!
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 8:53:58 PM | message detail
I don't think he'd beat Rikku myself.

I don't think anyone here would take Balthier>Rikku before the contest, or now. Only if he really impresses here would people even consider that I think.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/23/2007 8:54:05 PM | message detail
I hate having Balthier with 37% in this match... but there's just no where else to put it. Jade? Who? Ada and Frank don't inspire much confidence either in raking in the %. I can see Balthier completely bombing too, so it's weird trying to figure out where that % is going. Lowest votals in the first round? Book it.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 8:54:26 PM | message detail
I can't wait for tomorrow to finish so I can see Pikachu in action. A good chunk of my bracket's future lies in his (hopefully) capable hands.

TuRtLe
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61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Ondores Lies | Posted 9/23/2007 8:54:48 PM | message detail
You rang?
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/23/2007 8:55:23 PM | message detail
You can get mod'D for saying "first" in a topic that generally its difficult to be the first poster in?

People said it in Ceej topics all the time and I"ve seen it done in these topics too...never seen it mod'D before me. -.-

Someone needs to instruct Mods in the difference between the Letter of the law and the Spirit of the Law. I dont think the rule was invented to stop people from posting "first" in topics -.-

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Eff Dee
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 8:55:31 PM | message detail
I'd consider Balthier > Rikku, but I want to see him today first. SFF Matches usually favour the cooler character, which Balthier almost certainly is.

TuRtLe
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61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/23/2007 8:56:10 PM | message detail
Oh noes!, my last post was off-topic, as is this one, quick someone mark EffDee, the miscreant who clearly deserves to be censored for trivial things -.-

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Eff Dee
Draco1214 | Posted 9/23/2007 8:56:11 PM | message detail
Lowest votals in the first round? Book it.

Eh, it's in the running with Freeman's Fourpack of Failure.
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creativename | Posted 9/23/2007 8:56:39 PM | message detail
I hate having Balthier with 37% in this match... but there's just no where else to put it. Jade? Who? Ada and Frank don't inspire much confidence either in raking in the %. I can see Balthier completely bombing too, so it's weird trying to figure out where that % is going.

I know what you mean. I have Balthier with 36.5%, which seems high to me, but I just can't push anyone else above where I have them either.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/23/2007 8:56:44 PM | message detail
I'd consider Balthier > Rikku for about the same amount of time I'd consider allowing a midget headbutting me in theballs.

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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/23/2007 8:56:53 PM | message detail
You can be modded for anything these days, FD.
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paraboxx | Posted 9/23/2007 8:58:29 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone here would take Balthier>Rikku before the contest, or now. Only if he really impresses here would people even consider that I think.

Seconded.
But here's hoping.

In other news - Paraboxx's last-minute prediction: Balthier > Frank West.
...because, you know, this worked so well for Luigi > Pit.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 8:58:47 PM | message detail
Freeman's Fourpack of Failure

I like it

Ironically, Gordon is looking to possibly break 40% in that match too

TuRtLe
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61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 9/23/2007 8:58:59 PM | message detail
can't wait to see Amartuhrehdgjhdfkhasu's prediction percentage here. 22%?
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