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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 497

UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2007 11:55:00 PM | message detail
IMPORTANT MESSAGE IN POST #2 KTHX.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php



~*ST*~
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/22/2007 11:55:07 PM | message detail
The final explanation on 493 getting modded was that too many people were making a stat topic with the same number (so yes, being immature and fighting over who makes the topic and a bunch of people making the same number will get them all modded; grow up people, aka hiko). There's no rule against making the next one a bit early, but I'm told not to push it. The new unwritten rule for stat topics should be the old one at 450 posts. Any earlier is too early, any later will get topics modded for spamming.

K? K.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/22/2007 11:55:12 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/22/2007 11:56:25 PM | message detail
K
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
neonreaper | Posted 9/23/2007 12:08:13 AM | message detail
being immature and fighting over who makes the topic and a bunch of people making the same number

isnt there already a 497 imo
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 1:44:59 AM | message detail
It should hit 500 within minutes, and I posted this OMG like 2 posts early so I could get that message in.

Long story short, being an idiot with stat topics is finally recognized as spamming.

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
sillybulanston | Posted 9/23/2007 9:43:42 AM | message detail
Sounds fair enough. 450 seems more reasonable than 499 somehow.
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Spring Contest 2005 - Final Score - 77/80
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/23/2007 9:52:17 AM | message detail
>_>
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 10:37:58 AM | message detail
Up you go.

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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
tortugaturtle | Posted 9/23/2007 10:38:49 AM | message detail
will this be pinned to the board forever?
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where is it? where is the thump-thump?!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/23/2007 10:39:13 AM | message detail
We need more discussion on how much ass Dante is kicking and how he's going to hit 51% because he's a badass.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/23/2007 10:39:44 AM | message detail
Need to put RPGuy's hourly chart thing in the opening post.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 10:45:12 AM | message detail
Link? I'll make a mental note of it.

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Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2007 10:46:17 AM | message detail
BT still underrating MK characters I see...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/23/2007 10:46:20 AM | message detail
The reason it needs to be added is because I can never remember the link. >_>

I'm sure someone has it though.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/23/2007 10:46:25 AM | message detail
We need more discussion on how awesome it is that Amaterasu (seriously, it isn't hard people!) is going to be in Round 2.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Ammy/Dante/Mac/Matt - Bracket: Dante > Mac - Vote: Ammy (69/80)
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/23/2007 10:47:54 AM | message detail
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.html

Speaking of that, it'll be updated to include comeback statistics in about 10 minutes.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 10:48:02 AM | message detail
From Mac Arrowny Posted 9/23/2007 1:46:20 PM #015
The reason it needs to be added is because I can never remember the link. >_>

._.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 10:50:47 AM | message detail
MENTAL NOTE

www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/contest.hmtl

~*ST*~
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/23/2007 10:51:08 AM | message detail
K.

Also I agree with the sentiment that Amaterasu is not very hard to spell.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
adamjaxe- Stop measuring your presents....
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2007 10:51:53 AM | message detail
Its isn't. People are just lazy...


GO AMMY!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/23/2007 10:52:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, I've never played the game, and I pretty much picked up "Amaterasu" after I saw it like 5 times... boy I hope I didn't spell it wrong now.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/23/2007 10:52:54 AM | message detail
aww yeah
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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/23/2007 11:15:07 AM | message detail
I still can't believe Ammy's doing so well. I had her in my bracket, but I never thought she'd come close to breaking 20%.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 57/80; Oracle - 15th
LinkLegend27 | Posted 9/23/2007 11:17:35 AM | message detail
tag
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Sig goes here.
voltch | Posted 9/23/2007 11:58:52 AM | message detail
looking at the matches so far,i think it's safe to say the PCAs will be interesting to read this year.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/23/2007 12:01:52 PM | message detail
Indeed.

~*ST*~
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Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2007 12:12:01 PM | message detail
Who do you guys think has been the "Star" of the 1st round so far?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Janus5000 | Posted 9/23/2007 12:20:57 PM | message detail
So far I'd say the star of round 1 is either Master Chief or Sir ****ing Meta Knight. Turd would probably be Midna. Maybe Magus.

Meanwhile... Matt won the morning vote? Haha, I guess that's sort of to be expected, but it's weird seeing a joke character do that.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/23/2007 12:22:54 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/23/2007 12:24:24 PM | message detail
Oh boy, let's see how right I am with tomorrow's match! Jade Curtiss ftw gogogo. :)

Hmmm, I think that after a long wait, this division will be a my first perfect (and hopefully it may get me back into the running :X).
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Ogre Battle saga fanboy, and hopeless supporter of Lans Tartare for CB2K8!
consolefreak | Posted 9/23/2007 12:35:47 PM | message detail
^ Jade Curtiss? With how ToS characters have been performing? Doubtful.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Keno316 | Posted 9/23/2007 12:36:15 PM | message detail
...Not if you have Jade Curtis advancing...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
consolefreak | Posted 9/23/2007 12:41:27 PM | message detail
Also, wow @ Liquid/Alucard. A 3 vote differential? Awesomesauce. Too bad I wasn't around to see it.
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65/80, Balthier > Ada Wong.
*One_Winged_Ange*
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2007 12:45:12 PM | message detail
You know for a fodder and Dante match we're heading for 136k votes.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 21: Dante > Amaterasu Points: 59/80
Lopen | Posted 9/23/2007 12:49:50 PM | message detail
Dante's just a huge draw! Whoo highest non noble % yet!

A shame he's not going higher though.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
ZFS | Posted 9/23/2007 2:08:58 PM | message detail
Looks like a pretty dull match here. Tomorrow should be good (aww yeah Balthier!)

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let's mosey
PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/23/2007 2:16:04 PM | message detail
Wow, people thought I was actually serious about Jade Curtiss advancing. Way to go. :/

But for this division I had Dante>Ama, Balthier>Ada (the one I was most doubtful about), Tidus>Pikachu, and Leon>Vivi.
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Ogre Battle saga fanboy, and hopeless supporter of Lans Tartare for CB2K8!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/23/2007 4:00:17 PM | message detail
I was just thinking about it, anybody think Vivi might be a threat to Leon there?

I have Leon > Vivi, but for some reason that match is unsettling to me. I have no idea why.

TuRtLe
~~~
61/80 in the contest. Next pick: Dante > Matt
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 9/23/2007 4:04:25 PM | message detail
Absolutely Vivi is a threat to Leon there. I think this format is more suited to Vivi... however, I think that the enemies are weak enough that Leon's inate strength advantage outdoes Vivi's devotion advantage.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/23/2007 4:04:34 PM | message detail
Based on how RE characters have performed so far, it's a definite possibility.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2007 4:47:10 PM | message detail
Leon Kennedy (2006c) VS Vivi (2005c)

Leon Kennedy has a strength of 28.91.
Vivi has a strength of 27.26.

Leon Kennedy wins with 52.85% of the vote!
A win of 6,457 with 113,141 total votes cast.

Wow I thought Leon was further ahead.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 21: Dante > Amaterasu Points: 59/80
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/23/2007 6:24:50 PM | message detail
*Sees post #2*

I'd just like to point out that I wasn't "fighting" to make a stats topic. I was bored and figured 250-300 posts was a perfectly acceptable time to make one. I didn't know there was some unspoken rule about stats topics. I hardly call my behavior being "immature" simply because I was unaware of such petty traditions.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/23/2007 6:27:51 PM | message detail
hm.. Leon has had RE success on the Wii but if his fanbase isn't as hardcore as VIvi's, he stil has a chance to upset him.
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Today: Dante > Mac - Vote: Matt
Tomorrow: Balthier > Ada - Vote: Ada - Points: 67/80
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/23/2007 6:33:39 PM | message detail
Don't worry about it, Hiko. It was Ulti who was being childish and making another one. He just enjoys being a hypocrite.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
http://www.destructoid.com/elephant//ul/9855-550x-contra-poster-2-dsf.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 9/23/2007 7:02:45 PM | message detail
Match XXII: Ada Wong vs Balthier vs Frank West vs Jade Curtiss

Information

Name: Ada Wong
Game/Series From: Resident Evil series
Past Contests: CB2k6
Wins: Jade (2k6)
Losses: Samus (2k6)

Name: Balthier Bunansa
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy XII
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Name: Frank West
Game/Series From: Dead Rising
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Name: Jade Curtiss
Game/Series From: Tales of the Abyss
Past Contests: None
Wins: N/A
Losses: N/A

Analysis

This is our second match where all but one character is new, but this time the old character isn’t the most dominant force in contest history. The three new characters are so new that they didn’t even exist last year. Due to the newness of the characters it is really hard to determine their strength and any of them have a chance at making it to the next round.

Balthier is the favorite going into the match, being in one of the biggest games last year can do wonders to you. However he may not be as big as a favorite since Vaan’s match. There was SFF in that match, but he did terrible, failing to get 10%. FF12 is no FF10 when it comes to character strength, but they do have one thing in common, the main character is probably not the strongest. While Vaan was the main character the story revolved around Ashe like Tidus was to Yuna. I find Balthier being the Auron in the game being the cool one and a huge fan favorite. I think that’ll be enough to at least get above Ada and probably the other characters.

Ada is the only character in this match to have appeared in a contest before. While using the female contest to justify anything is laughable Ada was in the division that wasn’t affected by Tifa or Zelda. However being quadrupled by Samus is hardly anything to be proud of, at least when it comes to winning another match. Rikku being in the same division was able to perform better than expected, but I think that was more of a Rikku boost than a division boost. Ada has to be one of the luckiest fodders ever, not only was she able to win a match last year, but this year she is the favorite to come in second and go to the next round again.

Frank West has the best chance at beating Ada for second place. While Dead Rising isn’t the most popular Xbox360 game it is still known enough to give Ada a run for her money. While the game is about killing as many zombies as you can with anything it does have a story to it not the greatest story, but a story none of the less. Frank West strikes me as one of those characters that are popular for a short time before disappearing off the face of the Earth. To me Frank is still in the popular for a short time category, but if this match happens again next year I wouldn’t hesitate in taking Ada.

I’m not expecting Jade to do anything in this match. The only Tales of game that has ever been popular was Tales of Symphonia and even they weren’t that strong during their strongest year. I’ve never played the game, but it took me a few weeks to realize that Jade was a guy. He won’t perform like the other Jade, but I don’t see him coming in any place other than last.

Balthier will take first, but by how much is still debatable. The real match will be about who takes second. I have Frank in second, but Ada has every reason to take second so it should be interesting.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Balthier > Frank West

charmander6000’s Prediction: Balthier - 34.17%, Frank West - 25.17%, Ada Wong - 24.03%, Jade Curtiss - 16.63%

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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 21: Dante > Amaterasu Points: 59/80
BDawg | Posted 9/23/2007 7:17:58 PM | message detail
I've actually managed to not be around when a failed comeback pimp slapped my bracket twice now, lucky me. Oh well I can't wait for Leon to bomb so I can finally let it rest in peace. I still don't think much of Dante's competition though.
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Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 9/23/2007 7:20:04 PM | message detail
the Frank West suppoer of late is really confusing me. I'll be happy to eat my words if I'm wrong, but.. damn.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
transience | Posted 9/23/2007 7:20:42 PM | message detail
er... support.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/23/2007 7:22:42 PM | message detail
Marcus and Master Chief have brainwashed everyone into believe all Xobox characters will do well.

I'm one of them.

I mean, Frank doesn't even really need to be that strong to beat freaking Ada.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 57/80; Oracle - 15th
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