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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 495

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/22/2007 4:57:20 PM | message detail
Alucard's moving a tad too slow to make this happen in 4 hours, but if he speeds up a bit as the night continues...
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 56/76; Oracle - 17th
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 4:58:24 PM | message detail
He needs a couple more of those cuts!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/22/2007 4:58:53 PM | message detail
Get ready for Ness's epic comeback soon, too!

<_<
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 56/76; Oracle - 17th
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:01:21 PM | message detail
The Plan sucks.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 56/76; Oracle - 17th
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:05:19 PM | message detail
Dude, Alucard's just keeping his fans on edge. What fun would it be for him to just run over Liquid Snake? He's gotta make it thrilling.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/22/2007 5:07:25 PM | message detail
Your mom sucks.

This keeps happening though... Alucard takes decent sized cut, Liquid takes little back, Alucard takes decent cut, Liquid takes little back, Alucard takes little cut, Liquid makes small gains/stalls for 45 minutes.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
entropyx | Posted 9/22/2007 5:10:39 PM | message detail
Liquid, screwed, etc.
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Philadelphia Phillies [84 - 70] ; Philadelphia Eagles [0 - 2]
Santana was MOSSIN' all over the joke of a secondary the Eagirls have.
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:12:22 PM | message detail
DA PLAN IS IN MOTION!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/22/2007 5:13:25 PM | message detail
The sun has gone down in Castlevania!

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/22/2007 5:14:35 PM | message detail
yesss come on 2 points go alucard go
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:17:35 PM | message detail
Alucard: What.

*gets votes stolen by death*

Tsk, Alucard. What is this? Go get them back, fool.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:17:38 PM | message detail
If I had any money I'd pay someone $10 to reasonably explain the voting trends in this match completely.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/22/2007 5:19:08 PM | message detail
XD

For some reason the way Alucard says What?! will probably stick in my head forever
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2007 5:19:27 PM | message detail
Whew, just got back and voted for Liquid, didn't think I'd make it... and it looks like he needs it!

*checks site*

...

what the HELL happened in this match
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:20:15 PM | message detail
Night votes: Alucard
Dead hours: Massively Liquid
Morning vote: Liquid
Afternoon: Stall

Not that weird, really. You'd have expected Liquid to own the dead hours based on past matches, and Alucard to win the night votes.
---
Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/22/2007 5:20:15 PM | message detail
your mother
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mmm feel the vibration baby
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/22/2007 5:21:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, but... Ness... o.O
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:22:33 PM | message detail
Ness sucked!

As well he should have!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:22:50 PM | message detail
Ness won the morning vote. Ness is too out of his league here to win anything else.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2007 5:23:10 PM | message detail
We don't speak about...Ness...in this topic anymore.

And Alucard...woah.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Alucard/Liquid/Ness/Zidane - Bracket: Alucard > Ness - Vote: Liquid (68/76)
Eggplant Lord | Posted 9/22/2007 5:24:18 PM | message detail
I think that Ness winning the board vote and losing the day vote in addition to Alucard losing the dead hours by a lot is hardly not weird.

___
*watches*
o_o
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:25:47 PM | message detail
Ness didn't really win the morning. He did better than any other time, but it was mainly Liquid who won that, and Ness had so big cuts here and there.


But this match has been all Liquid and Alucard stalling.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:26:06 PM | message detail
It's not that Alucard is bad in the dead hours, it's just that Liquid kicks ass in them. Look at his match with Frog, that's when he took the lead.

Ness losing the day vote can be attributed to him just being weaker. he's actually maintained the same %.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:26:30 PM | message detail
Also, what was up with that Zidane percentage spike for a few hours coming out of the Dead Zone and into the early morning? Far and away a different performance than the rest of the day.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Yesmar | Posted 9/22/2007 5:28:09 PM | message detail
Ness didn't "win" the day vote in that he was cutting into Liquid's lead really, but he *did* increase in percentage, although I also find it odd that he didn't do it by more.
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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:28:17 PM | message detail
Time | Alucard | Liquid . . | Ness . . | Zidane
10:00 | 26.02% | 27.32% | 27.78% | 18.88%
11:00 | 25.71% | 26.70% | 28.28% | 19.31%
12:00 | 25.95% | 27.04% | 28.07% | 18.94%

Huh? Ness took the morning vote three hours in a row, I'd hardly call that mainly Liquid winning it.

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:28:48 PM | message detail
Completely irrelevant question:

If this poll was allowed to continue to 2AM, would you give Alucard a better-than-50% chance to retake the lead?
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:28:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, FF Characters tend to do best in the dead hours too, it seems. That's when Cloud took the lead on Link in 2004 (or was that 2005?), and it's when Tidus started making cuts on Kirby when he was originally getting trounced. Though those are only two examples of many matches, I just remember them.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:29:28 PM | message detail
he's actually maintained the same %.

Which is the weird part - he's supposed to be the only one here without a hideous day vote. Though I suppose this being on a weekend isn't doing him any favors.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:31:21 PM | message detail
I give Alucard a better than 50% chance to take the lead right now, really. He's accelerating more as the night vote is getting more... nightly.

Could just be being optimistic, though.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:32:45 PM | message detail
I think you are. He's cutting too slowly, and Liquid is stalling too much.

500 votes in 3 1/2 hours is going to be a little too much, even as the night vote accelerates. Magically make it 400 and I'd say it's 50/50.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:33:02 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: If Alucard has the lead under 200 by 11PM, he's getting a Frog rally comeback win.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:33:09 PM | message detail
Liquid is not just going to roll over and die.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 20: Alucard > Ness Points: 58/76
Lopen | Posted 9/22/2007 5:34:40 PM | message detail
Note that I posted that before I saw the 17 vote Liquid gain. Bah. Alucard can't afford those.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
TexasAggie | Posted 9/22/2007 5:35:44 PM | message detail
That'd be crazy if this broke the 7 vote record set by MC-Frog
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Contest pts: 64 (leaderboard position #27)
Today: Liquid>Alucard
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/22/2007 5:36:40 PM | message detail
I'm going with a European Vote explanation for this one. Earthbound having never been released there, Ness completely dies in the European morning hours (0400-0800). Then after that the usual American morning vote starts, a bit later than usual because of it being a Saturday. Ness shoots up to win that morning vote. And then does well during the rest of the day as well, comparatively.

Alucard goes down during the day, just not as badly as usual due to none of these characters being great with it.

Liquid has been pretty steady the entire match. Just a boost during those European morning hours where Ness died.

Zidane, pretty damn steady as well other than those terrible Ness hours.
Tujex | Posted 9/22/2007 5:37:42 PM | message detail
Ness is so close, yet so far from victory.
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Dream as if you'll live forever, live as if you'll die today
My Wii #:6106 6318 9386 4287 Pearl FC: 4467 7501 0618
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:37:56 PM | message detail
Keep going in THAT direction Alucard. 20-vote cuts, not 20-vote losses!
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/22/2007 5:38:06 PM | message detail
*adds Liquid to list of characters we need to see in the contest more often*


TuRtLe
~~~
60/76 in the contest. Next pick: The Plan > Ness
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:40:08 PM | message detail
Well, at this point Frog was just under a 100 vote lead against Liquid Snake......and they basically hovered around there for the rest of the match. Now what's really strange is......Frog outright gained votes on Solid Snake between the current time and the end of that poll.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 59/76 -- T-218 (57 way)
Bracket: Alucard > Ness -- Vote: Ness
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:41:52 PM | message detail
And Liquid gains back...37....

Damn...
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/22/2007 5:41:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, Alucard's done.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Keno316 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:42:02 PM | message detail
OUCH! no, No NOO!!!! That' NOT what's suppose to happen!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:42:20 PM | message detail
>_<

ouch
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 20: Alucard > Ness Points: 58/76
Master Moltar | Posted 9/22/2007 5:44:45 PM | message detail
THROUGH
THIS
ARM

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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Alucard/Liquid/Ness/Zidane - Bracket: Alucard > Ness - Vote: Liquid (68/76)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/22/2007 5:46:15 PM | message detail
Liquid > Yuna next round. FO SHO
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:52:10 PM | message detail
Wait... Ness is cutting?
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 20: Alucard > Ness Points: 58/76
Draco1214 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:52:29 PM | message detail
Alucard is done. No way he comes back from a 526 vote deficit in 3 hours.
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 3, Persona 3
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/22/2007 5:52:32 PM | message detail
lolucard
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 56/76; Oracle - 17th
jonthomson | Posted 9/22/2007 5:53:05 PM | message detail
Oh god, this division is killing my bracket
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Jon Thomson - 58/76, next picks: Alucard beats Ness
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
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