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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 493 (ASCII)

HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 2:53:22 PM | message detail
base 2k5 Tifa off 2k4 Vyse and put it against 2k6 Tifa -- who wins?

So...Cloud VS Samus then?



Ha...for what it's worth, compare MC's match to Auron's match. Auron had 43.26% against Shadow, Pyramid Head, and Chris Redfield...while MC has 43.95% against Yuna, Vercetti, and PaRappa. MC's lead is still growing and Halo 3 ain't out yet, so this could get mighty scary.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 2:59:30 PM | message detail
I posed this exact question last night to KH. I asked him who he'd take in this format, Auron or MC, and then who he'd take, Yuna or Shadow.

I'm waiting for another round before saying anything definitively here.
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
ZFS | Posted 9/21/2007 3:00:21 PM | message detail
Hell, I've got him beating Cloud and he's overshooting my prediction by 1%, and it'll probably end up by 3 or 4%.

Haha. Easy, Lopen, easy!

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let's mosey
HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 3:02:38 PM | message detail
That's a tough question...no idea on Auron/MC right now, but I feel decent enough about Yuna > Shadow according to this format, barring unusual opponents.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/21/2007 3:06:33 PM | message detail
Pff this is looking good for Alucard. Remember how Castlevania got the dayvote over HALO? Alucard will do the same against Masterchief. ah yeah!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
emanresU weN | Posted 9/21/2007 3:14:32 PM | message detail
so MC in the quarters is looking pretty good at this point eh? I've got Ganon>Dante.
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This is The_Ocelot
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 3:17:16 PM | message detail
Time .| Chief ... | Parappa| Vercetti | Yuna
01:00 | 42.70% | 11.59% | 14.71% | 31.00%
02:00 | 43.24% | 10.95% | 14.71% | 31.10%
03:00 | 41.29% | 10.02% | 15.44% | 33.24%
04:00 | 39.04% | 10.92% | 15.81% | 34.22%
05:00 | 37.45% | 09.92% | 17.33% | 35.30%
06:00 | 35.17% | 09.52% | 17.47% | 37.84%
07:00 | 41.12% | 08.45% | 15.99% | 34.43%
08:00 | 42.99% | 08.98% | 15.01% | 33.03%
09:00 | 42.27% | 08.76% | 15.38% | 33.58%
10:00 | 42.63% | 09.70% | 15.61% | 32.06%
11:00 | 42.32% | 09.25% | 15.61% | 32.83%
12:00 | 42.00% | 08.88% | 16.29% | 32.82%
13:00 | 43.07% | 09.42% | 16.70% | 30.82%
14:00 | 43.16% | 09.81% | 17.34% | 29.70%
15:00 | 45.73% | 10.05% | 14.86% | 29.37%
16:00 | 50.22% | 08.81% | 13.75% | 27.23%
17:00 | 51.11% | 07.94% | 13.46% | 27.49%
18:00 | 52.55% | 08.44% | 13.55% | 25.46%

Geez, he does even better. More than doubling Yuna at the moment is pretty scary
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 3:18:26 PM | message detail
And how many matches can you say a particpant had more than 17% difference between his best hour and worst hour? Probably not many >_>
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 3:28:04 PM | message detail
He'll be at 45% at 8PM...and then Hawaii will push him to 46%


HAWAIIPHEAR!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 3:31:16 PM | message detail
Uh, Hawaii will be supporting Vercetti.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 3:33:27 PM | message detail
No Wai! Vercetti might be wearing a Hawaiian shirt, but he's Italian. And just like dogs and cats are mortal enemies, everyone knows Hawaiians and Italians are mortal enemies! Facts of Life, man!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2007 3:39:36 PM | message detail
Bastly Chief, just beastly.

And boy am I not feeling good about tomorrow. darn you Liquid and GEARFEAR
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
MC/PaRappa/Tommy/Yuna - Bracket: Chief > Yuna - Vote: Chief (64/72)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/21/2007 3:54:22 PM | message detail
So will you guys move to the fake 494 when this hits 500, or should someone make a new one?

~*ST*~
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Petition for a system notification when a contribution is removed: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=37308859
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/21/2007 3:57:27 PM | message detail
It's all good.

06:00 | 35.17% | 09.52% | 17.47% | 37.84%
18:00 | 52.55% | 08.44% | 13.55% | 25.46%


You've got to be...
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 3:58:04 PM | message detail
can someone post Auron's hourlies?
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/21/2007 3:58:21 PM | message detail
MC's ASV>all
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 4:01:07 PM | message detail
Auron's match?

Time | Auron.....| Chris.....| P Head | Shadow
01:00 | 41.64% | 15.15% | 17.21% | 26.00%
02:00 | 43.16% | 14.72% | 18.07% | 24.04%
03:00 | 43.60% | 15.30% | 16.95% | 24.14%
04:00 | 44.29% | 15.70% | 17.26% | 22.75%
05:00 | 42.77% | 15.66% | 19.34% | 22.23%
06:00 | 43.39% | 15.39% | 17.18% | 24.05%
07:00 | 44.08% | 15.70% | 15.58% | 24.64%
08:00 | 44.13% | 14.66% | 13.61% | 27.59%
09:00 | 43.71% | 13.39% | 12.99% | 29.90%
10:00 | 43.06% | 13.72% | 12.95% | 30.28%
11:00 | 42.61% | 13.59% | 14.78% | 29.02%
12:00 | 42.68% | 13.52% | 16.26% | 27.54%
13:00 | 41.49% | 13.64% | 16.18% | 28.70%
14:00 | 42.34% | 13.57% | 16.39% | 27.70%
15:00 | 42.90% | 13.72% | 16.34% | 27.05%
16:00 | 41.97% | 13.50% | 17.65% | 26.88%
17:00 | 43.97% | 14.55% | 15.13% | 26.36%
18:00 | 42.54% | 14.15% | 16.12% | 27.19%
19:00 | 45.52% | 14.11% | 14.16% | 26.21%
20:00 | 43.39% | 13.99% | 17.29% | 25.33%
21:00 | 45.56% | 14.06% | 15.48% | 24.91%
22:00 | 45.48% | 14.37% | 15.18% | 24.97%
23:00 | 44.44% | 14.59% | 17.02% | 23.95%
00:00 | 47.07% | 14.65% | 18.02% | 20.27%

---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 4:02:51 PM | message detail
Since that was a weekend I guess the day vote would be like, 8 to 12 or something
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/21/2007 4:46:22 PM | message detail
MCs doing awesome right now, but I'm still not convinced this is going to even last the whole contest. This is the same guy who lost to freakin Sub Zero last year, remember? Hes not stable.

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Can't think of a good sig.
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 4:55:08 PM | message detail
pretty stable.. maybe slight night trends, but not much else.

augh master chief
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 4:58:01 PM | message detail
So does anybody feel good about Pikachu now that MC proved that anti-votes don't matter here, and Bidoof/Mudkip/Mewtwo all impressed beyond most of our expectations?

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Janus5000 | Posted 9/21/2007 5:02:22 PM | message detail
I feel worse about having Leon > Tidus, but not because of Pikachu.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 5:06:44 PM | message detail
Pikachu is no better off because he had no strength in the first place. It doesn't help if everyone anti votes you.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 5:10:14 PM | message detail
There's a difference anyway. Master Chief is generally anti-voted only by people that don't like Xbox. Pikachu getting anti-voted by the Pokemon fanbase itself is a bigger problem and not a far-fetched situation. People are just generally apathetic towards him anyway. I mean he'll still make it out of round 1 but I don't know why you would expect any better or worse
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 5:11:17 PM | message detail
We'll see. I still think his 2k2 matches are misleading, and Fox impressing here makes me feel better about his 2k3 match.

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/21/2007 5:12:08 PM | message detail
So does anybody feel good about Pikachu now that MC proved that anti-votes don't matter here, and Bidoof/Mudkip/Mewtwo all impressed beyond most of our expectations?

At this point, I am convinced that Pikachu won't be as a wreck as he was a few years ago. Having three Pokemon do very well was enough proof.

I just want to see MC in a year because I think his performance is a short-term thing thanks to Halo 3 hype. In a year we'll see if it's consistant long-term.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 5:12:33 PM | message detail
Although if I had to say, I think his chances of making it to round 2 are significantly lower than his chances of losing in round 1
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 5:13:39 PM | message detail
making it to round 3 I mean. Durrrrr
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 5:15:22 PM | message detail
55% on Parappa. yeah, he's going places!

actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Pikachu did well. but this match means absolutely *nothing* positive about Pikachu.
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/21/2007 5:17:27 PM | message detail
Sure, but how much can it actually tell us? His match with PaRappa was like... the fifth contest match ever.
---
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 5:20:27 PM | message detail
...How?

We've already seen the core voters that will vote any Pokemon over anything else (Nidoran F, Mewtwo, Mudkip and Bidoof), why would they abandon the franchise's main representative?

Back in 2002, it wasn't so much Pikachu hate as it was Pokemon hate in general.

Nobody dared talk about Pokemon unless they wanted to have every response be "UUA". I can't see Pikachu being much weaker than Mewtwo indirectly (though if the two were to have a match, Mewtwo would kick in Pika's face).

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 5:22:46 PM | message detail
But man, this is insane... Master Chief is pulling in 56% updates against Vercetti, Parappa and Yuna when he couldn't even get many of those against Sub-Zero last year. Though I was preaching the format, this has gotta be a straight up stronger Master Chief as well.

I'm a bit disappointed that he's not looking good to top 60% on any updates... but eh, 56.5% will do.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 5:26:17 PM | message detail
And no, Turtle, all Pokemon are not created equal. You defeated your argument in your own post by mentioning Mewtwo in the same breath as the other three. Pokemon voters will not vote for any Pokemon, and Pikachu being the franchise's main representative is the cause of the anti-votes!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 5:30:34 PM | message detail
Well, we only have... 4 more days to see how dark horse #4 looks. Let's just say I'm feeling confident enough in dark horse 1 and dark horse 3 that my bracket should be in good shape. If dark horse 2 impresses in round 2, I'll be a real happy camper

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/21/2007 5:34:33 PM | message detail
...Whoa. Master Chief hitting 45% is pretty crazy. Luigi barely got more than this against a bunch of Nintendo fodder!

Haha, nuts.

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let's mosey
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/21/2007 5:35:09 PM | message detail
HaloFAQs
---
Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 52/72; Oracle - 22nd
ZFS | Posted 9/21/2007 5:37:15 PM | message detail
fanbabiez

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let's mosey
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 5:45:30 PM | message detail
You know, the way almost everyone's writing off Zidane makes me really worried about tomorrow.

We haven't really had any out-of-left field upsets yet this year (unless you want to count Meta Knight)

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/21/2007 5:48:39 PM | message detail
Zidane getting 2nd wouldn't surprise me.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 5:52:29 PM | message detail
I don't think anyone would be surprised at Zidane doing well. He has potential. It's just one of those weirdly unanimous things where even though it's possible, no one seems to want to assume it's going to happen
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 5:56:35 PM | message detail
In my defense I've equally written off Zidane and Ness in tomorrow's match! I'm unique!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 5:56:59 PM | message detail
Zidanefear?

oh you crazy stats topic
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
Yesmar | Posted 9/21/2007 5:59:08 PM | message detail
Before the contest started, I said that Zidane winning this four pack is the one upset I could see happening that NO ONE has predicted.

I don't think it's very likely, but it's still possible to me.

Here's hoping this is our first match, where there's more than just two people dueling for a place.
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"Look out-- It's Liquids and Gases!"
Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2007 6:06:58 PM | message detail
Does anyone have Ness's hourly updates? I'm wondering just how good his day vote is.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/21/2007 6:09:37 PM | message detail
That doesn't really matter as it's a weekend. The voting patterns will be very similar the entire day, except for the morning vote.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
PiGuy96 | Posted 9/21/2007 6:11:51 PM | message detail
Time | Ness . . . | CJ
04:00 | 53.27% | 46.73%
05:00 | 53.47% | 46.53%
06:00 | 50.52% | 49.48%
07:00 | 50.94% | 49.06%
08:00 | 51.78% | 48.22%
09:00 | 54.47% | 45.53%
10:00 | 56.54% | 43.46%
11:00 | 56.92% | 43.08%
12:00 | 56.44% | 43.56%
13:00 | 57.49% | 42.51%
14:00 | 55.09% | 44.91%
15:00 | 54.26% | 45.74%
16:00 | 55.88% | 44.12%
17:00 | 57.84% | 42.16%
18:00 | 54.80% | 45.20%
19:00 | 55.68% | 44.32%
20:00 | 55.83% | 44.17%
21:00 | 55.72% | 44.28%
22:00 | 55.03% | 44.97%
23:00 | 53.69% | 46.31%
00:00 | 55.29% | 44.71%
01:00 | 55.44% | 44.56%
02:00 | 54.47% | 45.53%
03:00 | 53.48% | 46.52%

It's not spectacular (CJ is probably a night character), but Ness should have no problems winning the day against Alucard and Liquid.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2007 6:28:44 PM | message detail
So CJ won the morning. Ness looks relatively stable otherwise, with a small dip in the night. Looks like any trend changes would probably happen because of the others dropping off and picking up.
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Finally a damn bracket!
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
trannyscience | Posted 9/21/2007 6:31:16 PM | message detail
it shouldn't even be a question when you're looking at a Smash guy vs. a Castlevania guy, a MGS guy and a Square guy.

Zidane behaves like old Square I think, too, so he'll have an even more pronounced night vote.
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xyzzy
character battle vi score: 56/68
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 6:32:55 PM | message detail
CJ won the morning vote? Looks like the morning vote was Ness's best time to me. That match was during summer right?
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 6:33:53 PM | message detail
If Kuja is any indication, Zidane shouldn't be too hot when the sun comes up. I'd actually expect Ness to stay pretty constant. He'll have his Earthbound fans voting for him at night, then the Smash kiddies in the day.

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
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