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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 493 (ASCII)

charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2007 8:56:53 AM | message detail
Maybe we should be using 2k5 MC instead of 2k6 MC because his anti-votes were less present in his match with Crono than Sub-Zero.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 19: Master Chief > Yuna Points: 54/72
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 8:58:14 AM | message detail
I think Liquid might be stronger than Alucard at this point, but I'm still saying Alucard will win.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 9:01:31 AM | message detail
I remain faithful in Ness, though Liquid will do well. As it's already been said, practically anything can happen tomorrow...I do think Liquid got a shoddy picture though.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2007 9:02:04 AM | message detail
Liquid Snake (2005v) VS Ness (2005c)

Liquid Snake has a strength of 20.71.
Ness has a strength of 20.53.

Liquid Snake wins with 50.43% of the vote!
A win of 795 with 91,471 total votes cast.

>_>

Don't forget that is SFF adjusted Ness (or 2k4 Ness) so hopefully he's stronger because of the Nintendo boost.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 19: Master Chief > Yuna Points: 54/72
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 9:02:05 AM | message detail
...Not worse than fat kid Ness.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 9:02:50 AM | message detail
And don't forget that the Villains Contest stats are based off of Sephiroth, whose value is set at like 44% on BL.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 9:03:07 AM | message detail
Liquid was probably destroyed harder than expected by Sephiroth in that match though.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 9:04:10 AM | message detail
Leon, the XStats values are all based on Base Link, so that result is genuine.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 9:04:50 AM | message detail
Leon, the XStats values are all based on Base Link, so that result is genuine.

Uhhh...where do you think they get the values for BL since he's not in the contest? Sephiroth.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 9:05:26 AM | message detail
Uhhh...where do you think they get the values for BL since he's not in the contest? Sephiroth.

Uhhh...what? Wouldn't they just compare Sephiroth to Base Link's value and adjust everyone from there?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 9:05:29 AM | message detail
Don't forget that 2k4-Ness wasn't adjusted for SFF in Seph/Auron.


At least Ness is immediately recognizable though. A side-shot of Liquid's face in a long black trench-coat doesn't treat him well given his competition. Not saying it'll make or break him, but as a MGS fan I wish he would have had a better picture that was more recognizable.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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JaKyL25 | Posted 9/21/2007 9:05:37 AM | message detail
I do think Liquid got a shoddy picture though.

I think Liquid is the kind of guy who is affected the least by bad pics. His name is very recognizable to anyone who would consider voting for him anyway. He gets votes from people who enjoy MGS and that's pretty much it.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 9:06:54 AM | message detail
Wouldn't they just compare Sephiroth to Base Link's value and adjust everyone from there?

Yeah, and they set him to 44% on BL, which isn't accurate, if you paid attention to SC2K5. Honestly, using Villains Contest stats for any other set of stats is asking for trouble.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 9:08:57 AM | message detail
You could also take a look at Ganon, Bowser, or even Rameriz and argue that we didn't see the same Sephiroth we saw in the 2k5 summer contest...or even 2k4.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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PiGuy96 | Posted 9/21/2007 9:11:50 AM | message detail
Least-squares was used to determine Sephiroth's value on BL, but that was coloured by his horrible performances on Bowser and Ganondorf, and one of the five data points (Prince Luca) was horribly overrated through Magus.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2007 9:13:30 AM | message detail
I think a better comparison would be to use Frog instead of Liquid.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 19: Master Chief > Yuna Points: 54/72
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/21/2007 9:13:54 AM | message detail
Leon, the XStats values are all based on Base Link, so that result is genuine.

...but it approximates Sephiroth relative to BL that is *obviously* weaker than we know he is now. This suggests that the Villains Contest stats underrate the field (this would seem to be proven false when taking a glance at said stats... until one recognizes that whatever underration Ganon and Bowser suffered is obliterated by their overrating overperformances on Sephy, and since the majority of the field is measured through them it doesn't have much effect).

Giving Liquid his percentage on Sephiroth and measuring through Seph 2k5 gives a value of 23.68 - well above Ness' 2k5 value, though that arguably underrates Ness. Though Liquid has a lot of reason to be underrated and underestimated as well - Vergil's performance seems to suggest good things, there's the oft-mentioned FFVII/MGS weirdness that could have affected the match, Liquid may simply be stronger now in general, and there's of course the format.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 9:17:11 AM | message detail
I'd think Ness being the only Smash (hell, only Nintendo) character there should be enough to propel him over Liquid.

The only problem I see is if Alucard dropped more this year or Zidane winds up being a solid midcarder.

TuRtLe
~~~
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 9:59:43 AM | message detail
I think people are making way too much of Ness being the only Nintendo character in the poll. Quite frankly, Square for the most part has looked more impressive in this contest.

So that means Liquid > Zidane tomorrow!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Majin Lou | Posted 9/21/2007 10:27:05 AM | message detail
As long as Liquid advances (and preferably places first), everything will be fine. >_>
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miniver | Posted 9/21/2007 10:28:22 AM | message detail
So I have Leon > Ganon (> MC/Dante) in the Quarterfinals. Any chance of that happening after seeing yesterday's and today's performances?
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/21/2007 10:42:55 AM | message detail
No.

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charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2007 10:57:03 AM | message detail
I'm expecting Leon to take last in that four-pack
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 19: Master Chief > Yuna Points: 54/72
BDawg | Posted 9/21/2007 10:59:08 AM | message detail
I could say Believe about Leon>Dante but there's no chance in hell either one of them outlast this Chief.
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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/21/2007 11:03:38 AM | message detail
So...

Who else thinks that Isaac has a shot? I mean he does have the pic advantage, was stronger than Pikachu in 2003, and is from one of the GBA's most popular games. I'm not saying it's likely, just possible.
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/21/2007 11:03:57 AM | message detail
MC was still increasing his % during the time that the "night" vote characters typically do well. Expect a massive can of butt violation to be dished out soon!

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Buzzup | Posted 9/21/2007 11:06:22 AM | message detail
Just checked the pics, Matt is done. <_<
Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 11:14:24 AM | message detail
I think people are making way too much of Ness being the only Nintendo character in the poll. Quite frankly, Square for the most part has looked more impressive in this contest.

I think people like to overrate the "Only Nintendo character in the poll" and "Only Square character in the poll" to high hell in these things. So far, this contest format really seems to be downplaying the "company base" factor. At least as far as mid~low mid carders and fodder are concerned.

And regardless, the way MGS has played in this contest so far has to speak highly for Liquid's chances in the first place.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/21/2007 11:20:13 AM | message detail
So I'm writing my analysis now and I've some how got Alucard = Liquid = Ness.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 19: Master Chief > Yuna Points: 54/72
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/21/2007 11:40:58 AM | message detail
So far, this contest format really seems to be downplaying the "company base" factor.

Ryu disagrees.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 11:45:10 AM | message detail
At least as far as mid~low mid carders and fodder are concerned.


...Besides, Ryu's match was a huge SFF fest in the first place.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
ZhangJunyi | Posted 9/21/2007 11:53:48 AM | message detail
You know what would be hilarious? If in all of this Master Chief positive-ness, saying he's going very hard...

MC lets us down AGAIN this year.

I for one hope it doesn't happen. >.> But I'd lol.

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Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 11:56:03 AM | message detail
Well, we're about to find out. The ASV is about to begin. (Or begun anyway, if you consider those last few couple of MC updates)
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
The Real Truth | Posted 9/21/2007 12:01:02 PM | message detail
Well I hae Liquid taking 2nd place like 3 matches in a row, so here's hoping for that. Although I have Yuna taking first next round, even though I have her taking 2nd today.
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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:02:24 PM | message detail
So close to breaking 50%. Oh man, this ASV is gonna be sweet, it's just starting and he's going nuts.
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voltch | Posted 9/21/2007 12:02:27 PM | message detail
liquid's arm is probably just as recognisable as his previous body.
how long has it been since he featured with his actual body?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 12:04:12 PM | message detail
51%!


Oh, ITS ON NOW!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
transience | Posted 9/21/2007 12:04:14 PM | message detail
aw yeah, 51% updates

it begins
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xyzzy
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/21/2007 12:05:28 PM | message detail
MC is a friggin beast this year. its about time.

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Eff Dee
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:05:47 PM | message detail
I'm hopin for some 60%ers myself!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 12:06:12 PM | message detail
RAR. AFTER SCHOOL. MASTER CHIEF SMASH.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 12:07:13 PM | message detail
This is starting to feel a lot like Snake from last year...Everyone wasn't expecting much and Snake just down right exploded in everyone's faces.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 12:09:51 PM | message detail
This is starting to feel a lot like Snake from last year...Everyone wasn't expecting much and Snake just down right exploded in everyone's faces.

Except that a good number of people expected MC to go far in this.
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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:10:50 PM | message detail
Not as far as he will go, if you catch my drift! AHAHA!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
ZFS | Posted 9/21/2007 12:11:29 PM | message detail
darn you master chief

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let's mosey
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 12:11:31 PM | message detail
Not as far as he will go, if you catch my drift! AHAHA!

Unless MC reaches the final match and/or wins it, he's going as far as I expect him to.
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/21/2007 12:11:51 PM | message detail
And Snake was technically the favorite to win the main bracket. <_<

But even so, I don't think many of us expected him to do quite this well. I have him in the elite eight and pegged him 5% lower... and he's going up. o_o
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:13:35 PM | message detail
Unless MC reaches the final match and/or wins it,

*nods* Yes, yes, that is what I was poking at here!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 12:13:38 PM | message detail
Tell me about it.

Sure, one match does not a contest make, but I start to wonder if putting Ganon > MC in the Round of 16 was the right move!
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swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 12:14:30 PM | message detail
If Master Chief reaches the final, that's huge. If Master Chief beats either Link, Cloud, or BOTH.

I can't even fathom that possibility.
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