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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 493 (ASCII)

XIII_rocks | Posted 9/21/2007 12:31:34 AM | message detail
lol at this. Go MC! My bracket may be on the road to some kind of recovery! >.>

Also...yeah, lol hochiminh
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/21/2007 12:36:35 AM | message detail
Snake > Everyone confirmed due to new Smash update
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 12:41:45 AM | message detail
Harrich
he may even be able to outlast Sonic late in the contest. I'm not going to jump the gun just yet though -- we gotta see that day-vote happen and see how Sonic handles his matches. Just saying, after seeing Knuckles, Shadow, and Tails flop while MC is lambasting Yuna here before Halo 3 is released...we may see two Noble Niners upset in this format.

Any talk of MC>Sonic is getting ridiculously ahead of ourselves. I just cannot see that happening.

Let's say that MC beating out Ganon is looking real good, and outlasting Dante is looking probable. MC fans will have to be satisfied with that, because he ain't beating Sonic.

Also if some random non-Nintendo character was there instead of Luigi, I'd still expect Ganon to finish higher than MC.


BT:
Still, Nidoran F was almost certainly a fluke, just like Bidoof and Mudkip.

?


Draco
How is something a fluke if it happens three time? That's called a pattern and what that pattern is showing us is that any random Pokemon could be decent fodder.

Indeed. I never believed in Nidoran being fluke anyway. Too bad I never made the obvious leap that most Pokemon would be around her level; I considered it but my gut told me that wouldn't be the case.


Haste2
As for Jade, I can't help but think of Zelos, so I think he (keep on wanting to say "she") has little shot for second.

Hoooold up. She is a he?? No freakin' way. I had to reread your sentence a couple times to grasp it...I thought she was just an unattractive chick.

Frank West... he looks like a Max Payne sorta guy... minus the name recognition. I guess the chances are decent of doing better than Max.

I'm pretty sure Max Payne would be stronger on name recognition alone, I don't see how he could be stronger than Max.


Blade
I'm starting to think the best thing for board 8 and the stats in general at this point is not to base anything concrete off Master Chief ever, and just assume he fluctuates wildly.

It's amazing how people will cling to preconceived notions...there has never been any evidence of him "fluctuating wildly". The only real evidence is the Crono match, and that is far more likely explained by the sword picture; right when we saw that an MC overperformance seemed likely. Also the overperformance was all of like 2 points.

Chief doing well here is probably a combination of him being stronger than before (him actually getting the board vote is a big hint of that, people used to hate him), and also him possibly benefiting a bit from the format. (as well as, of course, Vercetti being a joke, he has no shelf-life...Yuna isn't all that far from expectations) The only reason he might fluctuate later in this contest, with the format same as now, is because Halo 3 is being released.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/21/2007 12:44:54 AM | message detail
Looking at it really... it you take 5 points from Chief and give them to Vercetti the match is pretty much within expectations. The only thing that's really going on here is that Vercetti is suffering from MC's presense more than what was expected
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Keno316 | Posted 9/21/2007 12:46:33 AM | message detail
Who would you take in a Vercetti/Kefka rematch?


I feel like Kefka would win that rematch easily.
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 12:51:13 AM | message detail
Looking at it really... it you take 5 points from Chief and give them to Vercetti the match is pretty much within expectations. The only thing that's really going on here is that Vercetti is suffering from MC's presense more than what was expected

Possible, I had thought of this. Tough to say for sure though because Vercetti dropping off over time also makes sense. But MC pseudo-SFFing Vercetti off the casual vote is one of the first things that comes to mind for a lot of us, I think.

Strange thing here is that if so, this would be working like true SFF that's one-sided, rather than the leech/split stuff we've seen so far. So again, a bit strange.

Still, I think it's quite likely that MC is stronger than in past years. Though I no longer think he'd even need that to finish ahead of Ganon, because the split with Luigi there could be quite heavy.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/21/2007 12:52:47 AM | message detail
Kefka certainly has no problems beating Vercetti in a four-way poll now.

The only thing that's really going on here is that Vercetti is suffering from MC's presense more than what was expected.
I expected Vercetti hurt MC's presence a bit, too, but it seems like MC is benefitting from it, if anything. Seems kinda weird to me.

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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:55:54 AM | message detail
Eh... benefiting from a weaker character who has a similar voting base being in the poll just seems like the easy way out to explain Rikku and MC.

I can sorta see the logic behind it. I'm just saying I don't agree with it.
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 12:57:15 AM | message detail
In fact, I could see Chief>Luigi that round. After all, Luigi is Nintendo, wears green clothes and his name starts with 'L'. These things give Ganon nightmares :)
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The Real Truth | Posted 9/21/2007 12:58:07 AM | message detail
That's so sexy, Snake gets his own level with the MGS4 theme. I love how he's CQC'ing Ike.
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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 12:58:19 AM | message detail
Man that's exactly what I was thinkin when I picked that! It makes sense!
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 1:01:49 AM | message detail
I expected Vercetti hurt MC's presence a bit, too, but it seems like MC is benefitting from it, if anything. Seems kinda weird to me.

Yeah same here. I figured they might hurt each other slightly.


Eh... benefiting from a weaker character who has a similar voting base being in the poll just seems like the easy way out to explain Rikku and MC.

I don't know about this, because I think Rikku was hurt by that, not helped. So why would that help 'explain' her? For that matter, what's there to really explain? If you don't believe she could actually beat Knuckles, I guess you could just say that Yoshi might have hurt him more than her. But I'm not sure she's all that much weaker than Knuckles anyway.
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 1:04:53 AM | message detail
Man that's exactly what I was thinkin when I picked that! It makes sense!

Was this about my post?

I've always been a big Luigi fan, I think him making the Sweet 16 would be awesome :) And it's not like he doesn't deserve it.
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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 1:05:13 AM | message detail
Well I certainly thought that Rikku was capable of beating Knuckles, and that Vaan hurt her. I'm just saying I've seen the theory thrown around that Rikku was actually helped because she SFFs more of Vaan's votes away than she would a character of equal strength that wasn't from the series. And that's pretty much the same idea as Master Chief "benefiting" from Vercetti here.
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Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 1:07:15 AM | message detail
And yeah, it was about your post.

... well okay, I didn't actually use that as my reasoning... but dammit, that's awesome anyway, and I do have Luigi taking second instead of Ganondorf. Heh.
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creativename | Posted 9/21/2007 1:10:27 AM | message detail
I'm just saying I've seen the theory thrown around that Rikku was actually helped because she SFFs more of Vaan's votes away than she would a character of equal strength that wasn't from the series. And that's pretty much the same idea as Master Chief "benefiting" from Vercetti here.

Yes I think that was RPGuy's theory. I thought it was interesting, but believed Rikku being hurt by leeching made more sense. Arthas/Diablo and Bowser/Mewtwo/Toad pretty much confirm the leeching idea, though they are a bit different because Rikku/Vaan was so one-sided. But Rikku (bah I keep typing Rikky) benefiting seems weird to me.

Which is why I didn't figure MC to benefit from SFFing Tommy here. As has been said, if that is the case, it is weird.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/21/2007 1:23:18 AM | message detail
It's possible that Yoshi and Knuckles leeched off each other, too, and perhaps more than Rikku and Vaan, as the closer the leecher is, the more potent the leeching will be. I'm hoping that's the case to give Ryu a shot next round, since that would mean Bowser and Shadow should leech off each other some. =P

Sonic characters haven't done so hot so far, however (from what I've gathered)... I wonder if they're just weak in this format? It kinda seems the same for Mario characters actually, and Yoshi appeared solid just because he beat Knuckles, who was also weak in this format, and Rikku got too close to Yoshi. Not that any data is solid at all... and I'd bank on Sonic characters being weakened more than that of Mario.

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HaRRicH | Posted 9/21/2007 1:27:30 AM | message detail
Bowser/Mewtwo/Toad is also different because there are three of them instead of two and they're different franchises/generations within Nintendo as opposed to both being from FF games on the PS2. Not that the same theory can NOT apply to Ryu's four-pack...but I consider there to be too many x-factors in that match to fairly say one way or another if this new theory works.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/21/2007 2:05:38 AM | message detail
QUESTION: Is there any possible way Master Chief > Alucard could happen next round?
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/21/2007 2:14:04 AM | message detail
Overated or not, Yuna is still slightly stronger than Alucard in 1vs1. As for this format, i don't really know but lets hope Alucard has a decent loyal fanbase that will help him greatly.

If Alucard can win his match with ease tomorrow, i will give him a shot at beating Yuna.
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Tales | Posted 9/21/2007 2:14:21 AM | message detail
I hope not. I have MC>Yuna in second and third round. How likely is Ganondorf>Yuna in div final? I have no idea why I did it.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2007 2:15:02 AM | message detail
From Lopen
Kinda makes me wish the polls started at 3AM ET again. Looks like Yuna might wreck his % in the night.

Yeah. Yuna's doing well with the stalling and making minor cuts. Looking at it right now, Chief would probably only have a ~300 vote lead if it started at that time.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/21/2007 2:34:55 AM | message detail
~Pikachu~
~by: Forceful Dragon~

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Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2007 2:37:38 AM | message detail
The Pikachu rally is looking to pay off!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/21/2007 2:46:38 AM | message detail
what a sucky morning vote.
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Today: Master Chief > Yuna - Vote: Master Chief
Tomorrow: Alucard > Ness - Vote: Ness - Points: 62/72
Gaddswell | Posted 9/21/2007 2:51:11 AM | message detail
2 20 vote cuts by Yuna!
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/21/2007 2:56:23 AM | message detail
It's too late for a comeback with MC's after school vote.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/21/2007 2:58:13 AM | message detail
well, not a sucky morning vote, but late night.
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Today: Master Chief > Yuna - Vote: Master Chief
Tomorrow: Alucard > Ness - Vote: Ness - Points: 62/72
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/21/2007 6:40:53 AM | message detail
tag KB
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 6:44:45 AM | message detail
Strange thing here is that if so, this would be working like true SFF that's one-sided, rather than the leech/split stuff we've seen so far. So again, a bit strange.

I still don't buy that theory at all. Don't consider it as MC SFFing away Vercetti's votes, consider it as if it was MC/Yuna/PaRappa, then you threw Vercetti into the poll. Seemingly he's going to hurt MC more than the others.

Actually, I don't buy that now that I think about it. Vercetti is more of a PS2 character than an X-Box character, and a character I would expect to have a really fleeting fanbase 4 years after his game. He's probably just that weak nowadays.

TuRtLe
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56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 9/21/2007 7:07:24 AM | message detail
Percentages are looking a bit more realistic now. Yuna really did well over night.

However, day has begun. The power of casual characters will now emerge.
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MC/PaRappa/Tommy/Yuna - Bracket: Chief > Yuna - Vote: Chief (64/72)
Lopen | Posted 9/21/2007 7:45:30 AM | message detail
Damn Master Chief's starting to pick it up already... oooh I'm looking forward to that after school vote. 60% updates from the Chief? Believe.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 7:48:59 AM | message detail
I just want Master Chief to finish the fight, so we can see that fourpack from hell.

Thinking about it, you could make a case for any combination of the four tomorrow.

TuRtLe
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56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/21/2007 7:52:29 AM | message detail
I'd also expect him to have Gordon Freeman like (preHL2) exposure problems.

Even if he doesn't, because I admit I've never played Dead Rising, Ada Wong has the closest relation to Nintendo in the poll, That alone should be enough to put her over West


Frank West has just as much screen presence in his game as Leon has in RE4, and is very likable to boot. He doesn't have the same issues that Gordon or Marcus do.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/21/2007 8:00:40 AM | message detail
Frank is also a Capcom character in a zombie killing game.

Expect him to SFF Ada to the ground!!

TuRtLe
~~~
56/72 in the contest. Next pick: The Chief > The Summoner
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
voltch | Posted 9/21/2007 8:26:36 AM | message detail
FF has failed me so many time this year.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
neonreaper | Posted 9/21/2007 8:32:33 AM | message detail
YES! Master Chief is getting that boost I predicted he would get from Mountain Dew Game Fuel,

god bless Luster
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
neonreaper | Posted 9/21/2007 8:34:49 AM | message detail
……………………………/’„-~~-„.. .. .. .. .. .. …”~„
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 8:37:21 AM | message detail
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neonreaper | Posted 9/21/2007 8:42:47 AM | message detail
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 8:45:32 AM | message detail
………………………………………………………………………….._,---~~~-,_
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 8:46:44 AM | message detail
Wow, I'm feelin' awfully good about taking Master Chief so far now. He shouldn't have any problems until the finals of the division, and even then, he should beat out Luigi splitting with Ganon.

In any event, with all of the recent MGS4 and Smash Bros. things involving Snake, Liquid's looking to take FIRST tomorrow! Bwahahaha, only Ness being confirmed on the Smash site can save him, and tomorrow's Saturday!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
neonreaper | Posted 9/21/2007 8:47:52 AM | message detail
………………………………………………………………………….._,---~~~-,_
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Of course you feel good - Master Chief rules!…....……..'|'|¯''~,-~~"""'\,\ \ '| '|~-,;:'|
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cherish the certainty of now, it kills you a bit at a time
Team Jägermeister
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 8:50:00 AM | message detail
I am a bit upset that I'll probably only get one point from my Alucard > Ness pick at this rate. That's a really lethal blow to my chances.
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TexasAggie | Posted 9/21/2007 8:52:41 AM | message detail
I hope half the leaderboard gets wiped out today, because Im not supremely confident in my Liquid>Alucard pick tomorrow.
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Contest pts: 60
Today: Masterchief>Yuna
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/21/2007 8:53:03 AM | message detail
I don't care if L.Snake can take first or second tomorrow. As long as he don't lose to Zidane, i will be pleased.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
JaKyL25 | Posted 9/21/2007 8:53:36 AM | message detail
I'm still fairly confident in my Alucard > Liquid pick.

The bad result I most fear is Liquid > Alucard, actually. I don't put much faith in Ness, as much as I love the little guy.
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Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
Character Battle V Contest Winner!
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 8:54:27 AM | message detail
Hmm...Master Chief's gains are slowing...does this mean Yuna is going to buck the voting trends and make some noise?

If it does...someone get me earmuffs, I can't stand her singing.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/21/2007 8:54:53 AM | message detail
Odd how the people who have Ness don't think he'll advance, and yet I have Liquid, and I fear Ness.

...I hate that little brat.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
swirIdude | Posted 9/21/2007 8:56:28 AM | message detail
Ocelot and The Boss have gotten me to fear Liquid doing damage, and of course, it is most likely to be at the expense of Ness, who's already weaker than Alucard. This and Liquid's X-Stats values are all over the map.
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