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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 489

YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 2:07:14 PM | message detail
I'd have taken all three of Vincent's opponents for second without thinking twice.

Probably the same here, although The Boss might have made me think a bit. But man, despite facing three chumps, Zero will barely manage what Vincent did against a Top 15 character. How's this guy not going to get ravaged by Link, again?
---
yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 2:07:54 PM | message detail
This is surprisingly similar to yesterday's match. If it had Crash in place of Simon Belmont.

Zero=Crono
HK-47=Raiden
Lloyd=Sam Fisher
Jak=Crash.>_>
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
TexasAggie | Posted 9/18/2007 2:08:10 PM | message detail
How can you all seriously discuss the possibility of zero not getting 2nd next round?
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Contest pts: 50
Today: Zero>HK-47
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:08:53 PM | message detail
throw in some overlap and he's in trouble

I guess you can buy into the "devoted fanbase" idea, but this sure doesn't look good for him
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 2:09:25 PM | message detail
Zero should still get second; I'm not disputing that. I'm just saying that this is a poor performance.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 2:10:21 PM | message detail
Eh, Mega Man's devoted fanbase took a hike, and that was 2004 Mega Man against 2004 Link.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:11:39 PM | message detail
yeah, but you're only talking about.. 30%? that's about all you'd need to get second here.

...yeah, I don't see it either.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:15:38 PM | message detail
I don't know how old you are Black Turtle, but it must have been impossible to be around during the Nes days and not have seen Pit, the same thing goes for Little Mac......

Who said anything about Little Mac? I was born in 1987, and started gaming when I was 3-4 with Mario and Contra.

And Zero looks bad here because of the picture. If he gets a better pic next round, he'll impress. Though people will interpret that as Crono jobbing and the Vincent bandwagon will take off full steam. Raiden should do better next round with a better pic too. I'm not too worried here. I had a feeling Zero would disappoint today.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:17:48 PM | message detail
ah yes. it's the picture. that made people vote for guys like HK-47, Lloyd and Jak over Zero.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/18/2007 2:18:10 PM | message detail
And Zero looks bad here because of the picture.

Bahaha you're so desperate
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Zero 39.80% - Jak 21.67% - Lloyd Crying 19.58% - HK-47 18.95% ~ Status: OK
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:27:29 PM | message detail
You can't see any of Zero's trademarks here. Z-sabre, ponytail, giant jewel on the top of his helmet. Besides, he was the clear favourite today stuck with 3 weaker characters who are looking to have a decently close match. We saw what a close race for second did to Samus and Magus. No way does Samus' fourpack come close to Mega Man's fourpack in terms of strength.

Besides, I called the picture thing yesterday. Read my analysis. I put Zero to get 44%, but said he'd probably disappoint because of the picture.

Match pic is the same reason Mega Man did so poorly on Link and so good on Snake. The two effects made Mega seem much stronger, then much weaker than where he actually was at. And I'm starting to think Zero/Mario was legit, with Mario just being way stronger than he used to be.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:28:08 PM | message detail
so anyway, Zero is pretty much sucking here.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:28:58 PM | message detail
We see Lloyd Jak and HK are roughly equal. Lloyds managed to get 28% alone on Zero. This is basically Zero vs 3 Lloyds

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Radix | Posted 9/18/2007 2:32:14 PM | message detail
I haven't been keeping up, but is this more or less over?
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:33:51 PM | message detail
Yep. It was over since the first ten minutes. Just like Zero's chances of advancing to the third round will be in around 25 days from now. =D
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Radix | Posted 9/18/2007 2:34:55 PM | message detail
Just like Zero's chances of advancing to the third round will be in around 25 days from now. =D

He never had a chance to begin with though!
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"You're nothing more than lowly cookie dough! Yet you would dare defy me!?"
Dekar TKB | Posted 9/18/2007 2:35:11 PM | message detail
In the last three hours, Lloyd has increased by exactly 7 votes.

It isn't over, but it's over.
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www.rpgdl.com
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:36:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, Lloyd will take the lead in just under 20 days at this rate.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/18/2007 2:43:11 PM | message detail
Given how Zero bombed last year was he expected to anything else this time around?
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Ireland's road to the Rugby World Cup Ireland 14-10 Georgia
Next Up: France
ZFS | Posted 9/18/2007 2:44:39 PM | message detail
And Zero looks bad here because of the picture.

i hate you

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:45:42 PM | message detail
at least Raiden had an excuse with the picture. Zero? not seeing it. at all.

if the Raiden picture comments are indeed correct, we could see an interesting round 2 match.. though I wouldn't count on it.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:46:21 PM | message detail
shadow > auron in round 2 book it
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/18/2007 2:46:43 PM | message detail
no BT's right, people clearly aren't voting zero because they cant see his ponytail
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Ireland's road to the Rugby World Cup Ireland 14-10 Georgia
Next Up: France
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:47:55 PM | message detail
But still, since HK Jak and Lloyd are equal, this is basically 3 Lloyds going up against a pic weakened Zero. 39% is pretty damn good considering.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BDawg | Posted 9/18/2007 2:48:33 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's plenty good for FOURTH in round 3.
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Should I start running now?
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 2:49:09 PM | message detail
But still, since HK Jak and Lloyd are equal, this is basically 3 Lloyds going up against a pic weakened Zero. 39% is pretty damn good considering.

hahaha you can't *actually* believe this
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:49:14 PM | message detail
I'm starting to think Kratos was legit and Scorpion is just that good with this format.

If he blows out Cloud next round, I'll feel much better about Zero's chances.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/18/2007 2:50:51 PM | message detail
But still, since HK Jak and Lloyd are equal, this is basically 3 Lloyds going up against a pic weakened Zero. 39% is pretty damn good considering.

Oh dear god -- no. There is no way to spin this; Zero isn't doing as hot as most expected him to. In all honesty, it doesn't matter because Zero's path has been set since the contest began, maybe excusing the off chance of a Raiden upset. It doesn't matter; no, Zero isn't beating Vincent or Crono. When you have to come up with excuses for why there's a poor performance, that's the red flag that tells you the upset you hoped for ain't happenin'.

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:51:15 PM | message detail
And why are people saying Zero is going to lose the day vote to Crono? His lowest % (aside from the board vote) is 1% lower than his highest, and he's looking to go back up with the evening vote. the Jakpack is much better with the day than Raiden/Fisher/Simon

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2007 2:52:58 PM | message detail
The only one who has gone up significantly since I last checked is Jak.

Day vote disappointmenton confirmed.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 2:54:42 PM | message detail
Why would you expect Jak to not do better during the day than at night..... Zero is one of the more steady characters in the bracket. Same with Mega Man.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/18/2007 3:09:37 PM | message detail
It would be splendiferous if Luigi could get over 60%.
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
Janus5000 | Posted 9/18/2007 3:14:31 PM | message detail
Well, using mad math skills:

Zero got 73.25% on Lloyd
Lloyd = HK-47 = Jak (roughly)
.7325^3 = .393

Which means Zero is actually doing as well as mathematically expected. Of course, this has several reasons to be a low bound (underdog/anti-votes being the biggest one), but ignoring these more realistic details Zero is in fact doing decently.

>________>
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 3:19:07 PM | message detail
ha.

Phoenix Wright (2006c) VS Magus (2005c)

Phoenix Wright has a strength of 21.19.
Magus has a strength of 31.93.

Magus wins with 66.82% of the vote!
A win of 35,275 with 104,871 total votes cast.

Magus gets 66.82% on Phoenix.
Phoenix = Bomberman = Crash

.6682^3 = 29.83%

by god !!

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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2007 3:20:07 PM | message detail
*takes off glasses*

My god...
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/18/2007 3:24:18 PM | message detail
Magus overperformed?

Mario is so screwed
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
The Mana Sword | Posted 9/18/2007 3:39:47 PM | message detail
Is the Raiden > Zero hype train here yet or what !!
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/18/2007 3:40:44 PM | message detail
LOL RAIDEN > ZERO

I'll show you a good train

HK-47 > RAIDEN
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
The Mana Sword | Posted 9/18/2007 3:41:25 PM | message detail
Get that nonsense out of here.

...I'd be willing to settle for Raiden > HK > Zero, though.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/18/2007 3:41:43 PM | message detail
hk47 > corono
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 3:50:18 PM | message detail
I'd just like to point out that Zero is looking like he'll finish above 40%.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 3:51:26 PM | message detail
That and Jak has cut 300 votes from Lloyd's lead since the ASV started.

lol "OMG TOS DAY VOTE! LLOYD WON IT AGAINST WESKERRRRRRRRRRRRR!"

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/18/2007 3:51:56 PM | message detail
grow up
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 3:53:18 PM | message detail
that's still pretty bad -- but regardless, he's not going to make it there. not enough time.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2007 3:53:38 PM | message detail
I'd just like to point out that Zero is looking like he'll finish above 40%.

I'd like to point out that....

what?
---
This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
trannyscience | Posted 9/18/2007 3:56:02 PM | message detail
haven't you heard? going up a tenth of a percent in an hour is impressive vs. these guys!

oh, he dropped in percentage again. guess he'll need to go three times as fast instead of twice as fast if he wants to hit 40%. not that that's much consolation here.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 3:58:57 PM | message detail
Lloyd is done.

;_; He'll keep stalling... FOREVER. Well, maybe not, but neither of them is going to make any progress anytime soon.

And: lol Zero, and uber lol BT, who yet again makes an utter fool of himself.
---
He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 4:00:38 PM | message detail
Okay Mr. "Marcus Fenix will NEVER come back against Kefka"

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 4:07:25 PM | message detail
I never said he wouldn't, I just underestimated it's size, Mr. PHOENIX WRIGHT WILL NEVER KEEP HIS LEAD.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 4:13:27 PM | message detail
Actually, if you look closely I gave up on Bomberman after the first hour, and during his "comeback" I repeatedly said that Phoenix was going to stall or comeback.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
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