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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 489

XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 9:56:00 AM | message detail
Gess we'll find out in a couple of hours.

For now, well, Irving stalled.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:57:25 AM | message detail
This is going to be like Magus/Phoenix/Bomberman/Crash, Jak takes the bulk of the day vote, Lloyd slightly has the day vote over HK-47 while Zero is going to bleed percent.
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Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:58:59 AM | message detail
It's not like Lloyd was incredible in the morning, nor was HK-47 bombing. If Jak could somehow muster up enough strength to pass HK-47, I have no doubt he'd pass Lloyd also.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2007 10:01:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, if Jak somehow managed to pull a miraculous 3000 vote comeback out his butt, then I don't think JK-47 OR Lloyd would be able to stop him, because clearly the man is defies all logic
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This story is not an end yet.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2007 10:02:15 AM | message detail
JK-47. just kidding 47
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This story is not an end yet.
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 10:02:20 AM | message detail
nor was Sam Fisher, and look how that turned out.
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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword | Posted 9/18/2007 10:04:00 AM | message detail
Hmmm. So what's the general concensus going into the after-school vote? Lloyd takes is over HK?
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Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 10:06:38 AM | message detail
Not sure how Sam helps your argument. He was against 3 guys with bad to awful day votes, was less far behind, and still didn't manage to actually come back.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 10:09:27 AM | message detail
well, I'm treating HK as far more of an unknown. if I actually believed he had a day vote equivalent to Sora's, there wouldn't be any question about what was going to happen here. I could easily see that day vote fading into a night vote, which is what that 100 vote drop in the morning looks like to me.

does Jak come back? almost definitely not, that's crazy. but if he did, I'd have him passing HK before I did Lloyd.
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xyzzy
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TexasAggie | Posted 9/18/2007 10:09:38 AM | message detail
*has Luigi>Tingle tomorrow*

The Twilight Princess boost is about to fail me thrice.
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Contest pts: 46
Today: Crono>Raiden
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 10:12:27 AM | message detail
Twilight Princess boosting Tingle?

now there's a thought.
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xyzzy
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The Mana Sword | Posted 9/18/2007 10:13:17 AM | message detail
so i herd u lik tinglez
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Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 10:16:36 AM | message detail
You're treating HK-47 as an unknown with a low floor, ok. But why shouldn't Lloyd's floor be within 2% of that or so? He himself hasn't shown much day vote power at all, it's been other ToS matches that have people thinking he'd have a good day vote.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 10:18:26 AM | message detail
well, a.) because he did it this morning and b.) he's yet to show he's bad with it. why would I expect Lloyd to be different than the other guys in his game? that's the exception, not the rule.
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xyzzy
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/18/2007 10:20:27 AM | message detail
So yeah, match over. Good stuff HK-47.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 10:32:32 AM | message detail
**** Lloyd and **** ToS. LOL, RPGs.

>_<
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 10:32:48 AM | message detail
(PS lead prolly over 1000 this update)
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/18/2007 10:34:49 AM | message detail
so why isnt jak winning yet?

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 10:43:02 AM | message detail
Lloyd is closer than Sam was.

But anyway, If it were Kratos or Zelos here, they'd be ahead by a little bit.

CURSE YOU SB!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:01:50 AM | message detail
Looks like HK-47 is going to have a lead in the 1100s by 2:45, when the after school vote hits. That's a fairly tall order for Lloyd, but it isn't impossible.
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BDawg | Posted 9/18/2007 11:03:09 AM | message detail
Yeah Lloyd made that 100 vote cut in an hour, but is the morning vote really condensed into one hour? In the afternoon people wanna go "oh central is out, oh west coast is out, oh Hawaii is out" (Fisher pwned that Honalulu vote). But clearly we'll have our answers in an hour or so.
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Should I start running now?
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/18/2007 11:03:56 AM | message detail
Guys, just give up. Lloyd is done.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 11:04:08 AM | message detail
If it were Kratos, nobody would have picked anyone else and it would be a sucky match. If it were Zelos, he'd be in last by far and it'd still be a sucky match, though I'm sure people still would have picked him.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
ZhangJunyi | Posted 9/18/2007 11:07:06 AM | message detail
...I can't believe Jak is doing so bad. x.x I'm praying for some miraculous after school vote for him.

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BDawg | Posted 9/18/2007 11:08:19 AM | message detail
Although if you want to talk about trends I'm kinda surprised Lloyd fell apart during school when he held up so well during the night.
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Should I start running now?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/18/2007 11:09:17 AM | message detail
Kratos did the same thing. The time he fell apart most was the time when school was in-session
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:12:25 AM | message detail
Lloyd took in 20.XX% during the night, and 19.XX% during school, so it wasn't really a collapse. It's just that about half of that extra percent went to HK-47, and there's move votes coming in, so HK was able to increase his lead better than he could in the night.
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Mustache...and green...
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:19:48 AM | message detail
Nice update by HK there. If Lloyd makes consistent gains after school, HK will need all the cushion he can get. If Lloyd is within shooting distance (say, 200-300 votes during the last hour), he may benefit from a bracket-led rally.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:19:51 AM | message detail
And it's quite possible that Lloyd is just a morning vote kind of character (think Bowser) and doesn't get much done in the day. But I think he'll at least make it interesting.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:22:27 AM | message detail
Lloyd has no chance of coming back. HK-47 has this match wrapped up in a pretty little package
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 11:22:44 AM | message detail
hmm, Lloyd only turned 2% on Wesker, and Wesker went even with freaking Kefka. maybe I'm overestimating Lloyd's day vote.

well, we'll see.
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xyzzy
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 11:39:35 AM | message detail
...Lloyd just pulled a 36 vote cut, and pulled in like 130 votes (a massive spike by his current standards).

Uhh...hopefully that ain't freak *waits for next update*

Nope. >_<

A 6-minute update that HK wins by 1.
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 11:44:25 AM | message detail
it begins. :)
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xyzzy
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AerisDS | Posted 9/18/2007 11:45:11 AM | message detail
it transitions. :(
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 11:46:00 AM | message detail
OH, BOY

Don't call this one just yet, guyz! (including me. twice. thrice. >_>)
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:49:12 AM | message detail
Like clockwork, it is.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/18/2007 11:49:41 AM | message detail
Not over yet, but lloyd will have to pull a pretty big swing to win this.

Then again, judging by the last few updates, that huge swing might very well be happening.
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sig
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 11:50:45 AM | message detail
Yeah...I know it's heavily affected by life routine, but the predictability of the ASV starting time never ceases to amaze me.
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 11:51:24 AM | message detail
I'm surprised Lloyd didn't do better with the morning vote. It was HK's worst time against Sora and he did well with it against Wesker.

Anyway, this should be fun. I think Lloyd can turn this. Let's hope so!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:51:46 AM | message detail
If Lloyd is doing this now, I shudder to think what'll happen in a few hours. It was a nice run, HK. Dammit. =(
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/18/2007 11:53:29 AM | message detail
Well to be fair, it's not like hk is down and out without hope.

This could easily go either way.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 11:55:01 AM | message detail
NOT GOOD ENOUGH, IRVING
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 11:55:52 AM | message detail
I'd mark out so hard if Lloyd pulled a Marcus Fenix here when the actual after school vote hit. Yes, I realize that's setting my sights a little high!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:56:43 AM | message detail
The east coast just started getting out of school, and Lloyd is already doing this. This match is over and done with for HK-47. Bah.
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 11:57:54 AM | message detail
man, it's amazing how many people were calling this a lock for HK a couple hours ago and a lock for Lloyd now. give it time.
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xyzzy
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 11:58:56 AM | message detail
I never called it a lock for HK, but this is over now. Vamoosh. Over and out. Locked up. Tai'D up and hang'D. This jinx better work.
Majin Lou | Posted 9/18/2007 11:59:55 AM | message detail
****, that was a nice 29 vote cut!
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 12:00:10 PM | message detail
I think we should get hochiminh's quotes and add them to the fedor collection, then.
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xyzzy
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 12:00:25 PM | message detail
Ballgame.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 12:00:29 PM | message detail
Haha. Nice.
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