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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 489

charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 5:43:05 AM | message detail
Still close, hopefully HK-47 gets a better day vote than Lloyd (which shouldn't be too hard). I also want Zero to lose about 3% and give it to Jak so my oracle prediction would be almost perfect.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2007 5:49:02 AM | message detail
It's like they're taking turns "winning" updates at the point.

Zero: Here you go Jak, you take this one.

Jak: No no, I couldn't, Lloyd can have it!

Lloyd: I'm alright, HK, you take it.

HK-47: Thank you, meatbag.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60)
Gooper Blooper | Posted 9/18/2007 5:52:19 AM | message detail
*waves HK-47 pendant*
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nintendogirl1 | Posted 9/18/2007 6:19:06 AM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: RIDLEY ANNOUNCED FOR SSBB ON THE DAY OF HIS MATCH AND WIPES OUT VIVI AND LEON
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I can so see that happening.
And it being awesome!
Master Moltar | Posted 9/18/2007 6:23:44 AM | message detail
darn you sakurai
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60)
Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2007 6:32:41 AM | message detail
Quick question, which hours are considered to be the morning vote again? I ask because if that's supposed to be the view of the afterschool vote, Lloyd looked pretty good in the 6th & 7th hours, but HK pretty much rebuilt his lead in the 8th.
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Current Points: 50
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 6:36:01 AM | message detail
Time | HK-47 . | Lloyd . . | Jak . . . | Zero
01:00 | 22.25% | 21.76% | 16.71% | 39.27%
02:00 | 22.39% | 20.11% | 15.48% | 42.02%
03:00 | 21.94% | 20.76% | 15.83% | 41.47%
04:00 | 22.04% | 20.32% | 17.22% | 40.42%
05:00 | 21.41% | 21.04% | 18.37% | 39.18%
06:00 | 22.25% | 20.16% | 18.40% | 39.18%
07:00 | 21.40% | 22.95% | 19.54% | 36.10%
08:00 | 19.86% | 21.03% | 20.38% | 38.72%
09:00 | 21.80% | 20.08% | 19.16% | 38.96%

Slight increase by Lloyd, slight decrease by HK-47 in the morning, but it was enough for Lloyd to chop off 100 votes before giving them right back. The afterschool vote should be interesting with those two, we might have another episode of the slowest comeback ever. And Jak improved enough in the morning to almost go even with HK and Lloyd, but not enough to damage them. Jak's gains came at the expense of Zero, who's not going to be finishing above 40%.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/18/2007 6:39:00 AM | message detail
The morning vote is pretty flexible, but the strongest hours for it are usually 6-7 and 7-8 (when the kiddies wake up!). Before that melds into the dead zone and after that melds into the day/during-school vote.
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Mustache...and green...
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/18/2007 6:52:28 AM | message detail
tag KB
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 7:08:49 AM | message detail
Largest lead of the match - 508 votes. Don't collapse, HK, you're making master so happy. =')
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 7:30:09 AM | message detail
Looking at Kratos and Zelos' match they seem to keep a constant percent from here on end so if HK-47 has any day vote strength he could take this or we'll be having another slow comeback.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 7:33:54 AM | message detail
I think we'll find out in the next 2-3 hours if Lloyd has a shot. I'm going to say he needs to keep HK's lead under 850 and then win the day vote. The lead is just under 550 after 10 1/2 hours though at this kind of rate Lloyd can keep it very close still.

Either way though Lloyd has to take the day vote and there's just no telling if thats going to happen.

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Eff Dee
voltch | Posted 9/18/2007 7:47:19 AM | message detail
how did lloyd's day vote go up against zero and wesker?
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 7:55:26 AM | message detail
What the hell is Lloyd's problem? Why is he such a ****tard?
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 8:11:27 AM | message detail
Looks like Jak is taking the during school vote, he just cut into both Lloyd and 47.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/18/2007 8:15:43 AM | message detail
Come on Lloyd, if you were ever going to prove that ToS characters don't suck hard in these contests, today would be a good time to do so.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/18/2007 8:16:24 AM | message detail
Go Jak... he aint done yet.


KB
charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 8:20:48 AM | message detail
I still want an epic 3-way fight, so go Jak!
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 8:24:38 AM | message detail
Wow, I predicted before I went to school that HK-47 would be leading by about 700 votes when I came back... And I was just a tiny bit off. o_O.

Anyway, Lloyd's best time is still yet to come, and in the morning Lloyd cut into his lead quite a bit, taking off a 100 before HK-47 recovered, and even then he was stuck at stalling. If Lloyd can keep up what he's doing now for a couple more hours, he has this.

He increased his lead on Wesker by about 7000 during the day, while Wesker had been coming back all night and throughout the school period. OK, that was Wesker, but still, 7000 is a lot.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 8:26:41 AM | message detail
That 700? 7000, sorry.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 8:28:45 AM | message detail
Also, against Zero Lloyd seriously slowed his massive lead building and even won a few updates during the day.

Regardless of whether Lloyd wins or loses, at least we now know for sure that Zelos was underrated.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 8:31:56 AM | message detail
Also, against Zero Lloyd seriously slowed his massive lead building and even won a few updates during the day.

He won updates against Zero? Are you sure?
HaRRicH | Posted 9/18/2007 8:41:25 AM | message detail
I think Zero won updapes against Mario, so I can't imagine Lloyd winning updates against Zero.

Also, Wesker and Kefka had a stand-still in 2k5 with the day-vote. An option saying "I'd rather have a nose-bleed than vote for Wesker" would have risen 5,000 votes on him with the day-vote.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/18/2007 8:43:53 AM | message detail
Chun Li won a few one-minute updates against Bowser!

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Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 8:46:09 AM | message detail
Also, the day was HK-47's worst time in 2004. Of course, he was against SORA, but still...
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/18/2007 8:49:14 AM | message detail
Lloyd is clearly suffering from PRPGOCSFF

Popular Role-Playing Game On Console SFF
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ffmasterjose | Posted 9/18/2007 8:56:10 AM | message detail
721, ouch.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 8:59:28 AM | message detail
The more I think about tonight's match, the more I lower Tingle's chances. Bah, just get it over and done with, you stupid Pokemans.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 9:00:04 AM | message detail
And Lloyd stalls again...

Looks like it was just a spike, but perhaps not...
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:00:31 AM | message detail
LLoyd might just not be capable of the numbers, he hasn't put up a 100-vote update in half an hour. Granted HK-47 has has some disparity in his numbers, he has been more consistent than Lloyd. Even still I'd say winning the day vote will be worth at least 900 votes cuumulative. I really dont see them splitting the day vote like they've been splitting the rest.

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Eff Dee
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:02:58 AM | message detail
HK has about three hours left before the last big question mark. I think he has an outside shot at leading by 1,000, and that would force Lloyd to win the after school vote more decisively than he's won anything else thus far.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:05:07 AM | message detail
Having a bracket that has Pit in second I think Mudkip has it tomorrow. Not only could he be legally stronger than the other two characters, but he has 4chan on his side and they seem ready to cheat if they have to.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:06:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:08:30 AM | message detail
I thought 4chan supported bidoof but not mudkip?

They created the Mudkip fad, Bidoof was more of a test and I wouldn't be surprised if they supported the L-Block too.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/18/2007 9:09:15 AM | message detail
The whole Mudkipz fad was 4chans own little bastard child I thought, so I imagine Mudkip will get just as much support from them as Bidoof did, if not more.

And honestly, Bidoof put up a nice number against Miles Edgeworth. Even without those stuffed votes, Bidoof was taking second place.
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:10:04 AM | message detail
100% of HKs gains are a result of HK getting more votes and Llloyd staying the SAME AS EVER. I am really despairing in Lloyd now, he just cant hit 100 on a regular basis.

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Eff Dee
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:10:07 AM | message detail
I thought 4chan supported bidoof but not mudkip?

I really hope they leave this crap alone though, i lost 2 points because of that retarded beaver.


I believe 4chan created the Mudkip fad, so if anything, they'll rally even harder tonight. All three of these chumps are subject to Luigi SFF, so the rally and joke votes give Mudkip the best shot at second place. Think of it this way: if Bidoof can get 16%, won't Mudkip, who will almost certainly get a stronger rally and is up against weaker competition, outdo that? I say yes.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 9:10:29 AM | message detail
LLOYD! What are you doing? Don't collapse now, you're so close to your prime time!
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
BDawg | Posted 9/18/2007 9:10:31 AM | message detail
I was hoping the morning vote would shed some light on this but it doesn't seem that way. It seems some people were ready to call the morning vote for Lloyd (and I don't blame them) but then he spit the bit. Yeah he had that 100 vote cut in the 7AM hour but it was very gradual and it wasn't like he was shredding HK, and then in the 8AM hour he gives all back. Well either way I don't see the afterschool vote causing a massive surge in one direction or the other. A 1000 vote lead would be looking mighty fine in a stallish match like this. Also...seriously Zero, what happened? You were gaining so nicely and now you're already back below 40%?
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Should I start running now?
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:12:26 AM | message detail
won't Mudkip, who will almost certainly get a stronger rally and is up against weaker competition, outdo that? I say yes.

I don't think Tingle and Pit are weaker competition than Agent J and Miles Edgeworth ;>_>
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OH JEEZE!
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:16:25 AM | message detail
Lloyds votals continue to suck big time. Seriously he was hitting 80-95 regularly, the only problem was HK hitting 105ish on occasions. And now Lloyd is hitting high 70s low 80s. now is not the time to slow down. I'll give up before the day vote if he keeps these low updates up.

...Jak has gained on Lloyd in each of the last 4 updates.


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Eff Dee
Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:17:17 AM | message detail
Yes but Luigi will SFF them enough where they won't be that much stronger, plus the difference between Link and Luigi more than makes up for it.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:21:14 AM | message detail
Each update is getting more painful to watch. Lloyd just sucks at getting votes. I have a gut feeling that HK is about to go on a tear... Imma stop watching for awhile.

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Eff Dee
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 9:26:44 AM | message detail
Time | HK-47 . | Lloyd . . | Jak . . . | Zero
07:00 | 21.40% | 22.95% | 19.54% | 36.10%
08:00 | 19.86% | 21.03% | 20.38% | 38.72%

whoa. you suck, Zero. if you can't get over 40% on this bunch, I have to laugh.

I like Lloyd here. looks like he's definitely taking the day, and the only question is how many votes HK will be up by. I'll give Lloyd a 1500 vote comeback in the daytime, so let's see what HK can do to pad his lead.

as for Jak, I'd say he actually has a chance to pass HK, but not Lloyd. he's gaining on Lloyd right now and I think he'll actually outdo Lloyd come daytime. just not by much.
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xyzzy
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/18/2007 9:29:12 AM | message detail
jak is a failure
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/18/2007 9:32:14 AM | message detail
Right now if Lloyd and Zero were the only characters in the match Lloyd would be getting 34.5%, even 2k6 Zero would be getting almost 70% on 2k5 Lloyd.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 16: Zero > HK-47 Points: 46/60
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/18/2007 9:36:14 AM | message detail
Argh...

GG Lloyd, it seems.

He'll still make that magic comeback, but like Sam yesterday, it won't be enough.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 9:42:27 AM | message detail
Jak has a chance to pass HK-47, but not to pass Lloyd? Come on now, do you actually believe that? It doesn't make sense if you think there's any chance HK-47 holds off Lloyd.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
BDawg | Posted 9/18/2007 9:51:02 AM | message detail
I really don't see Lloyd exploding with the afterschool, the best I think he can hope for is a Bomberman/Fisher style slow comeback.
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Should I start running now?
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 9:51:36 AM | message detail
well, it's pretty obvious based on the two hours that I pasted that Lloyd is going to take the day vote. so is Jak. what I said, or what I meant anyway, is that Jak has a better chance of passing HK than he does Lloyd because of the potential of him falling apart in the day. I don't think he has a chance to get past Lloyd because of that. I have a lot of respect for Jak's day vote - HK, I really don't know, but when you lose 100 votes in the morning hour, I'm hesitant.
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xyzzy
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