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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 489

Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2007 1:05:01 AM | message detail
It's pretty much all Lloyd dropping off too.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/18/2007 1:05:36 AM | message detail
HK-47 is jumping up more and more in the past couple updates. Let's see how much longer this continues.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2007 1:10:13 AM | message detail
There we go. Back to normal. >_>
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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/18/2007 1:15:23 AM | message detail
Personal bias/brackets aside, do we think HK-47 should have a decent day vote?
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 1:25:19 AM | message detail
it looks like he should be good - at least, as good as Lloyd. but it's based on old data. the only one I'm absolutely convinced should have a good day vote is Jak. if Jak was somehow able to keep this within 1300 votes, I might say he has a tiny chance of coming in second.. but he's going to be down 2000 votes, probably.
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xyzzy
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transience | Posted 9/18/2007 1:26:53 AM | message detail
to be more specific, HK went essentially even with Sora in the day in 2004. Sora *slaughtered* Ryu Hayabusa with the day vote and came back pretty good vs. Samus, too.

the Kingdom Hearts day vote is now considered to be one of the two most potent day votes we've seen, along with Master Chief.
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xyzzy
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Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/18/2007 1:33:02 AM | message detail
That was in '04.

KH didn't really start to put up insane day-vote numbers until 05. Sora would get 75%+ on HK now.

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Eff Dee
transience | Posted 9/18/2007 1:35:33 AM | message detail
yeah, because of KH2. his trends haven't changed though.

unless you think Sora improves by 10% in the daytime against Hayabusa now
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xyzzy
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 2:23:21 AM | message detail
Yeah, consistent HK gains now. Think that's it for Lloyd.
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 2:29:08 AM | message detail
What do you mean Sora *slaughtered* Arabusa with the day vote?

5 hours in (about when the morning vote would start) Sora was at 60.31%. Arabusa hung around there till 13 hours in, then Sora jumped to ~61.5% when the day vote was done. Not exactly what I'd call a slaughter.

Amusingly... looking at HK-47's match with Sora his worst time was by far the morning, and Lloyd's best time against Wesker was in the morning. That could be fun.
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 2:31:20 AM | message detail
Consistent gains of what? 10? Lloyd doesn't need to be worried, this is still a stall in my book.

Morning vote starts in a couple of hours. Lloyd is gonna rock his face and overturn at least 1000 votes in that time period! Believe.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/18/2007 2:31:40 AM | message detail
I love how the character so many were so absolutely dismissive of has performed decently even if he doesn't look like a winner. I felt a lot of reservations in my choice, and was even convinced that it was a bad one after the brackets were set, but to see him not being "an outside shot" is just amusing.
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 2:36:36 AM | message detail
Lloyd Irving was the guru favorite you know.

... though perhaps not the stats topic favorite. I honestly haven't seen much discussion on this. I was pretty shocked when none of the crew aside from me picked him.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2007 2:42:06 AM | message detail
Well, you know what the Analysis Clique called this pack: The Jakpack of suck. Discussion of this is apparently not wanted. : )
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_Harmonica_ | Posted 9/18/2007 3:06:56 AM | message detail
Nice cut by Lloyd thar.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2007 3:08:35 AM | message detail
Lloyd just jumped up there. Followed by a slight HK stall.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 3:09:06 AM | message detail
Calling it early ftw >_>
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/18/2007 3:14:28 AM | message detail
Yep. Morning vote now, right at the turn of the hour.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/18/2007 3:18:16 AM | message detail
I'm off to History

I expect nothing less than Lloyd in the lead on my return. Last update I'm going to watch:

...eh. Could be difficult to do in an hour or so. 353 is the lead, HK with the 6 vote gain.
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cyko | Posted 9/18/2007 3:34:26 AM | message detail
*GASP*

could Lloyd actually win the day vote?! it looks possible. he's giving HK-47 the typical morning stall that day vote recipients usually start out with.

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Kratos_42 | Posted 9/18/2007 3:38:29 AM | message detail
C'mon, HK, my money is riding on you...!
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Lopen | Posted 9/18/2007 3:41:26 AM | message detail
What happened to "Don't die, Lloyd," Kratos?!

Ragh Irving's morning vote begins. Lloyd leads by 700+ by the time it's done, I'm callin for it!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/18/2007 4:38:00 AM | message detail
Lloyd is winning the day vote, looks like he may have a chance to take the lead during the afternoon.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2007 4:43:42 AM | message detail
*Remembers everyone calling the match for HK the first update after freeze, with the hearty sentiment of 'lol Lloyd day vote*

*Wakes up and sees lead has never been above 400 & Lloyd has cut it down to under 300 during the morning vote that was suppose to bury him*

lol Lloyd day vote indeed! >.>
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Current Points: 50
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
Tales | Posted 9/18/2007 4:46:37 AM | message detail
I need Lloyd in second to get two points. If not, I get none at all. I have Jak in first-_-
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/18/2007 4:51:30 AM | message detail
BTW, what is going on with Zero. His percentage is dropping like a rock during the morning, isn't he supposed to be good with the day vote?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 4:51:31 AM | message detail
Wow, Lloyd and Jak managed to stay respectable during the night.

I smell another tight race, though I think it'll be Jak who makes it close.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 9/18/2007 4:53:01 AM | message detail
Wow, I'm really impressed with Lloyd's performance today so far. He's burning a hole in HK with the morning vote as expected. Maybe he wins the day...?
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IdealistLloyd | Posted 9/18/2007 4:55:04 AM | message detail
Why would you think Jak would be the one to make it close?

*looks at sig*

Oh.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 4:57:55 AM | message detail
Mega Man and Zero are 2 of those steady characters I was talking about last night. And the fact that second place is looking to be really close means I think Zero's going to drop quite a bit more by the end of the match, a-la Magus

TuRtLe
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48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 9/18/2007 4:58:16 AM | message detail
gogo Lloyd you wouldn't want to make me cry now would you?
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jonthomson | Posted 9/18/2007 4:58:46 AM | message detail
Urgh, this match was always going to be hard to read, good to see Lloyd making a fight of it, although I can see HK doing well enough in the afternoon to make this not close in the end. We'll see, but I'm not confident in making it five perfects in a row
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Jon Thomson - 48/60, next picks: Zero beats Lloyd
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/18/2007 4:59:40 AM | message detail
First time I look at this match..

Ha, I knew you guys were underestimating Lloyd. He hasn't won this fight for 2nd yet, but still... I laugh at the people who thought he'd finish 4th.

Clarification: Of course I voted for the best character ever, HK-47
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Zero 39.80% - Jak 21.67% - Lloyd Crying 19.58% - HK-47 18.95% ~ Status: OK
creativename | Posted 9/18/2007 4:59:57 AM | message detail
I figured people were overrating HK's day vote last night. He doesn't seem like the day vote type really, RPG character with semi-cult fanbase and all. And ToS characters have a better day vote history than many gave them credit for.

Also, it's almost bad to win the overnight vote unless you win decisively. If a character squeaks by overnight, I think they lose the day vote almost every time, if I'm not mistaken.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/18/2007 4:59:57 AM | message detail
Jak taking the day vote and rocking those two with an epic comeback would definitely be cool for my bracket, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 5:00:57 AM | message detail
There's still plenty of time for Lloyd to finish fourth. If Crash Bandicoot can make gains on Bomberman/PW with the ASV, I feel confident that Jak will as well.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/18/2007 5:01:00 AM | message detail
Hmm, random prediction time! Which match will we be on when we have our 500th CS&D topic? Also who do you think will make the topic first?
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/18/2007 5:01:37 AM | message detail
If Lloyd wins, it'll be the first time I have to straight matches right in my bracket.
Yes, my bracket sucks.
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Zero 39.80% - Jak 21.67% - Lloyd Crying 19.58% - HK-47 18.95% ~ Status: OK
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/18/2007 5:02:07 AM | message detail
*two
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Zero 39.80% - Jak 21.67% - Lloyd Crying 19.58% - HK-47 18.95% ~ Status: OK
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 5:02:16 AM | message detail
KH was the only one overrating HK's day vote. Slight percentage gains on pre-KH2 Sora with low votals does not a strong day vote make.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/18/2007 5:03:17 AM | message detail
I think if anybody but Ulti makes it, Ulti will ignore the other topic and make his own, and people will sheepishly follow.

Ulti is much too important to not make it.

TuRtLe
~~~
48/60 in the contest. Next pick: Zero > Jak
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/18/2007 5:08:00 AM | message detail
*Remembers everyone calling the match for HK the first update after freeze, with the hearty sentiment of 'lol Lloyd day vote*

What's this everyone stuff? There were more than a few people pointing out ToS characters' good day vote history. Even in this very contest Kratos Aurion didn't do all that bad.

I did expect Lloyd to go down with the day vote rather than increase, I just expected HK to go down more (with Jak benefitting). Looks like Lloyd might improve with the morning/aftschool vote though. Still hard to know at this point. I still think Jak's going to make a run at 19% though.
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creativename | Posted 9/18/2007 5:11:15 AM | message detail
KH was the only one overrating HK's day vote. Slight percentage gains on pre-KH2 Sora with low votals does not a strong day vote make.

Low vote totals have nothing to do with anything. Trends are trends. It's just that it was only one match, and also a couple years ago. And he also didn't gain on Sora with the actual day vote, it was that he didn't lose much. Also he was a more recent character at the time. HK just seems like someone who should be better at night, even though it shouldn't be by much just because of his XBox background.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/18/2007 5:12:46 AM | message detail
I think if anybody but Ulti makes it, Ulti will ignore the other topic and make his own, and people will sheepishly follow.

Yeah, I was about to say that...

So which match is it? I think it will be Dante match or even Alucard one if it goes according to THE PLAN.
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2007 5:15:47 AM | message detail
What's this everyone stuff? There were more than a few people pointing out ToS characters' good day vote history. Even in this very contest Kratos Aurion didn't do all that bad.

I didn't mean 'everyone' in a literal sense, but there were good deal of people that called the match for HK right after the 10min update, not sure if they were all serious, but still...
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Current Points: 50
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
Xuxon | Posted 9/18/2007 5:20:28 AM | message detail
The 10 minute update wasn't so much "lol Lloyd day vote" but "lol Lloyd board vote." Basically, that he would keep dropping in percentage and level out safely lower than HK-47, possibly lower than Jak. That obviously didn't happen.

I didn't really think Lloyd or HK-47 would lose the day vote so much as stay constant, with Jak increasing at Zero's expense.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/18/2007 5:27:30 AM | message detail
Now HK47 is fighting back and gaining good leads on Lloyd. Don't die, Lloyd.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/18/2007 5:29:29 AM | message detail
Lloyd's votes starting to die off. Weird to see that after doing so well the past couple hours
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Current Points: 50
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/18/2007 5:33:18 AM | message detail
I think if anybody but Ulti makes it, Ulti will ignore the other topic and make his own, and people will sheepishly follow.

Ulti is much too important to not make it.


I've been making every tenth one for the past two topics now!!!

But really, if we get to 300 posts in 499 and there's not another topic, I wouldn't be surprised to see like 5 or 6 pop up.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 9/18/2007 5:35:51 AM | message detail
Gotta root for Lloyd, because if he pulls this off I'll actually have a perfect Division 4, and hell if I get any other divisions perfect from here on out.
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