GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 488
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:24:16 PM | message detail |
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I'll be having a hearty lol black turtle. --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 7:25:22 PM | message detail |
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we don't need a contest result to do that. --- xyzzy |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:28:09 PM | message detail |
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Division 4: Round 1 - Match 16 – HK-47 vs. Lloyd Irving vs. Jak vs. Zero Moltar’s Analysis HK-47 Game/Series Known From: Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Seed in 2004: 11 Lost in 2004 to Sora in Round 1 One of my faves from the old Xbox RPG. Lloyd Game/Series Known From: Tales of Symphonia Seed in 2005: 2 Lost in 2005 to Zero in Round 2 He’s the one that’s not Kratos or Zelos or Sheena. Jak Game/Series Known From: Jak and Daxter Seed in 2004: 11 Lost in 2004 to Ness in Round 1 Jakpack Zero Game/Series Known From: Mega Man X Seed in 2003: 7 Seed in 2004: 4 Seed in 2005: 3 Seed in 2006: 7 Lost in 2003 to Sonic in Round 2 Lost in 2004 to Mega Man in Round 3 Lost in 2005 to Mario in Round 3 Lost in 2006 to Luigi in Round 1 2005 letdown? Magus. 2006 letdown? Zero. And so Division 4 ends with a tough match. First place is all but decided already. Zero shouldn’t have any trouble there. It’s the battle for #2 that’s a three-way tussle. First there’s Lloyd from ToS. He did pretty poorly against Zero back in 2005, and ToS is 0-2 so far in this Contest. Kratos did okay, but Zelos bombed pretty hard. Lloyd isn’t even as much as a favorite among ToS fans, though he does get the most screentime. He shouldn’t be as strong as Kratos, but he’ll be above Zelos. Then we have Jak. He’s mostly remembered for losing to Ness in a very hotly debated match. Honestly, I’m not sure how I would rank him in a format like this. The closest similarity I can see right now is Crash, who, in a four-pack similar to this (1 midcarder vs. 3 others fighting for third), didn’t do too bad for himself. He isn’t as much of an icon as Crash, but he is more “cool” and “hip”. We all know how much the kids of today like that! Lastly, there’s HK-47. Another previous one-timer. In 2004, he was beaten easily by Sora. Even so, KOTOR did do pretty well for itself in the Games Contest, and since then he has had KOTOR 2 (which is a bit old at this point). Still, of the three other #2 hopefuls, he’s the one I see with the strongest fanbase. So who gets 2nd? My bracket says HK-47. I’ve pretty much given up all hope on Lloyd, thanks to Tales’s less-than-impressive performances so far. Jak still has a good shot, especially if he can rake in the casual vote, but I just don’t think he’ll beat out HK’s fans. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Zero > HK-47 > Jak > Lloyd Moltar’s Prediction is: Zero: 41% - HK-47: 25% - Jak: 23% - Lloyd: 19% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis Outside of Zero taking first place, this match is entirely up in the air and anyone could take second place. HK-47 and Tales of Symphonia both have rabid fanbases, and Jak is the only modern platformer character that has shown *any* sign of strength in these things. Daxter got into this contest over Clank, for instance. I actually think Jak will take second place by default, not due to strength so much. As much as HK's fans love him, they're a very small bunch and have grown less of a voice since we last saw him in 2004. And though Lloyd comes from a widely popular title, ToS fans hate Lloyd. He's a complete idiot. Which leaves Jak the last one standing. He's not widely popular, but he's not hated either. He should have just enough in the tank to pull this one out. Ulti's Prediction: Zero [47.00%] Jak [23.00%] HK-47 [16.00%] Lloyd [14.00%] |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:28:27 PM | message detail |
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Heroic Mario’s Analysis Zero -- 39% HK-47 -- 23% Lloyd Irving -- 20% Jak -- 18% Whew. This match is something else. You have Zero, of course, coming in first place, but not dominating the poll. Then you have HK-47 and Lloyd pulling from their dedicated RPG fanbases, and finally you have a close-but-not-quite there performance from Jak. You could pick any one of the three characters here and it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility. But I went with HK-47. My thinking here is pretty simple: HK-47 has a devoted group of fans from a rather popular RPG in KOTOR. The combination of being extremely well-liked within his game alongside said game having actual popularity -- not being “cult” -- is the key here. Almost everyone who has played KOTOR loves HK-47. That’s worth something, more than some might give credit. Many people want to cite the Tales series having a decently sized dedicated fanbase on this site, and while there is an argument to be made there, I’m skeptical as to how many of them are going to be supporting Lloyd, who isn’t all that liked within his game. As the main character, he can’t even pull in a second-in-command among fans, which doesn’t tend to invoke a lot of confidence. That isn’t to say he won’t get support, because he most certainly will, but I’m not expecting him to get the full backing of Tales fans. Jak is something of a wildcard here, and while he’s probably more popular than Lloyd, I’m just not sure how someone like him is going to do in this sort of environment. There are people who like the Jak series, and even like Jak the character, but how far does that extend? How many call Jak one of their favorites? Zero in the poll -- both platforming characters -- makes you wonder, too. He’ll do well, for sure, but I think he’s going to be bringing up the rear on this one. Bracket: Zero > HK-47 Vote: Jak Yoblazer’s Analysis Yet another highly debated match; is this contest great or what? We've seen 15 different matches so far, and most of these have had a relatively clear winner with a debated battle for second place among two other characters. This one is a bit unique in that the battle for second place is a wide-open crapshoot between all three characters. The clear winner today is Zero. The battlers for second place are HK-47, Jak, and Lloyd Irving, and each have some compelling arguments for and against them. Among these three relatively sad saps, the slight favorite is Lloyd Irving from Tales of Symphonia. Interestingly enough, Lloyd faced Zero two years ago and got really owned. I mean less-than-27% owned. As the star of an RPG loved and hyped by the board, he was seen as a huge disappointment. Now, two years (I expect his strength to have decreased a bit) and two extra competitors later, you'd expect Lloyd to score much lower than his already pathetic percentage from 2005. Earlier in the contest, Zelos bombed completely and the stronger Kratos Aurion put up 21% against (what I'm wildly guessing to be) comparable competition, so I'll give Lloyd 20% as his absolute ceiling. Now, will that be enough to inch past his two challengers? Let's see... |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:29:34 PM | message detail |
| Next in line is the fresh and casual PS2 platform
star, Jak. You'll all remember him from his handful of well-liked PS2
Jak series and for getting his ass kicked by Ness and making me look
like a complete moron in 2004. I regard it as one of my most bungled
matches ever, and three years later, I still want to see you burn in
hell, stupid Jak. Following Crash Bandicoot's surprisingly good
performance against Phoenix Wright and Bomberman, I've heard many
people waxing confident in Jak's chances. He may very well perform
better than I originally thought, but I still doubt he's got this over
two RPG characters with more solid fanbases. He's simply too casual and
not nearly as established or iconic a figure as Crash, so I'm expecting
a fourth place finish for him, albeit a close one. You failed me all
those years ago, now you ask for a second chance? HAHAHAHAHA. Finally, we have my personal pick for the next round, my personal endorsed character for the match, and one of my very own very very personal most beloved characters evar, HK-47. There are many reasons I picked HK today, not the least of which being fanboyism. But really, my friends, is that such a crime? In a wide open match in a never-before-seen format, why not take the character you love if he has a realistic shot? That's what I did, and as I'm sure you've all recently read, I'm not the only one. You see, HK 47 may not have the largest fanbase around, but he sure as heck has one of the most fanatical ones. KotOR players absolutely adore the evil droid. They love him with a love that Lloyd and Jak will never feel, and that will be their undoing. In addition to this, the Xbox characters we've seen thus far (Marcus Fenix, Sam Fisher kinda sorta he's Xbox enough, ok?) have performed admirably, which leads one to believe that Xbox-exclusive characters may be independent enough from their opponents to secure their own little bonus voting blocks. If this holds true, it can only help the Hunter Killer unit. Should be a good match, and like Phoenix/Bomberman/Crash, might be an entertaining three man race, but my money is on HK-47 to accompany Zero to Round 2. Zero - 42% HK-47 - 21% Lloyd Irving - 19% Jak - 18% Lopen’s Analysis Alright... Zero wins, right? ... heh. Maybe. I can't help but shake this feeling that Zero is going to pull a Magus in this match and pull some lowly number like 35% against these guys. Kinda similar situations these two guys: Both looked like near elite characters in the past. Both got beaten in matches they were heavily favored in recently. However, Zero's obtaining of 45% against Mega Man leads me to believe that he's less succeptable to collapse than Magus is, who only got 30% on Crono. Okay, I said maybe, but I didn't mean it literally. Even if he does collapse, no way he's gonna lose to Lloyd Irving, C-3P0, and Playstation Platforming Character #15. What I meant was he'll be a loser if this happens, even in victory. So who wins between Lloyd Irving, Droid Irving, and PPC15? Well, my money is on Lloyd Irving here. Okay, yes, Zelos Wilder looked like crap, but Kratos Aurion didn't do badly in his match. Maybe Zelos was just weak, sad as it be. I still believe that ToS fans will have some degree of loyalty to their characters, and that Lloyd Irving, like Kratos, has already been seen. Heck, he is the only one of these other characters to win a match, right? PPC15 doesn't strike me as the type to hold up well here, despite looking the strongest at face value by the stats (I think...?), though IG-88 is a real threat. I've seen his fanbase in action and it seems pretty devoted. However, I'd still say Lloyd was more impressive in his defeat by Zero than R2-D2 was against Sora, though the droid has had a game since then, I think, making things even more iffy. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:29:54 PM | message detail |
| I'm not sure who wins... but the moral of the
story is: Don't abandon Lloyd just because Zelos looked bad. He's never
been a powerhouse, but he doesn't need to be to take second in this
four pack. Plus he looks by far the most awesome in the pic. A picture
is worth a thousand votes. But a badass picture is worth like... twenty
thousand votes. And as we all know, Lloyd Irving fans like having two
of things for twice the power, they'll all vote twice. 40000 is pretty
unsurmountable for the other two. Yeap. ... what? Lopen's Prediction: Zero - 34.20% Lloyd Irving - 24.42% General Grievous - 23.04% Playstation Platforming Character #15 - 18.34% (oh I forgot he's edgy now in his new games... I don't care!) Karma Hunter’s Analysis Whee, it's the moment we've all been waiting for, and I'll steal tranny's dubbing that you'll see below: the Jakpack of suck. Uhm... no, not much here I wanted to put except stealing his thunder, let's get on to the matches! HK-47 The most lovably badass droid to come out of the Star Wars universe. I have yet to find a single person who does not ADORE HK. Sub-humans and fecal matter, sure, but not *people*. Lloyd Irving Massively hyped up for his contest debut, Lloyd was the biggest dud of 2005. He returns here trying to stop the 0-2 streak ToS has been on so far in this contest. Seeing as how I'm not convinced he's much higher than Zelos on the ToS food chain... eww Jak Casual power in a can, baybee! Jak is our other 2k4 one-and-done character, although he had a good shot to win his match that many *cough*Ulti*cough* downplayed. Unfortunately, he had to go up against Ness, whose power hadn't been realized due to SFF... but these days, Jak looks alright in retrospect! With the third game under his belt, he's the final contender for second place. Zero lol see the name Well, Zero's a non-factor, so let's get on to the competition. Lloyd is statistically the weakest guy here, but the loyalty of the ToS fanbase may put him over. Unfortunately, it's LLOYD, so that's a longshot right there. I will say his picture stands out the most for "OMG anime" fans or whatever. But he's got the least shot of winning to me in this tight threepack. Next comes Jak, who is statistically in the middle, but due to Auron being underrated in 2004 is probably the highest guy statistically. 'Casual' characters who are typically weak have impressed this contest, too (see: Crash), and with his third game he has a decent reason to rise. The biggest 'wildcard' here, he's a good bet. But my money's on the one character here who can be called a FAN-FAVORITE - HK-47, an lol optional character from an lol Xbox RPG, who makes up for it in one way: he beats the piss out of every single character in this match. Seriously. HK-47 would outgun Jak while running at half-capacity while out-zinging Daxter. He'd dual wield blasters faster than Lloyd could make his 1+1 speech. And Zero? lol Jedi Killer. The foolish meatbags and cheap imitation don't have anything on the greatest assassin droid to come out of gaming AND Star Wars. Eat it, IG-88. While we're at it, Boba can eat it too. Oh, and never mind that he's got a fan-favorite status, isn't a bad pick based on the stats, and has had KOTOR II since his last contest appearance. I'm picking him since he told me to. Karma Hunter's Vote: A MERE PROTOCOL DROID, MASTER Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Zero with 47%, HK-47 with 21%, Jak with 18%, Lloyd with 14% Upset Probability: 100% lol switch zero and hk around I mess up |
| 00bularn00bular | Posted 9/17/2007 7:30:22 PM | message detail |
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tag --- Sonic's Earth IS Earth. This has been proven through science~Nacho_Burger |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:30:41 PM | message detail |
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Transience’s Analysis ahh, the Jakpack of Suck. I hate even talking about this match because it's asking who the least bad character is compared to Zero. Mewtwo is out in the first round, but one of these guys will advance to get killed in the next round. anyway, Zero obviously wins. the question is by how much? looking at previous fourpacks, the favourite has struggled to get a big percentage. Mario had a match with a SFFed icon, a third-tier MGS character and a guy with no name, and still couldn't manage 60%. Mario also beat Zero pretty hard a couple years ago. granted, this fourpack is probably weaker than Mario's was, but I can't see Zero doing much more than 50% here. that means someone's gonna need to get a good 20% to win. all three have their strengths and weaknesses. Lloyd is probably the most relevant character of the three right now, or at least he is on GF. TOS has a sizable fanbase on this website, and they seem the type to vote their guy over everything. unfortunately for him, Lloyd is not universally liked by the fanbase and Zelos pretty much bombed a few matches ago. Lloyd and Zelos aren't connected at the hip, but Lloyd seems to be a much worse pick now than he was pre-contest. I'd put him as the least likely to advance, though I wouldn't be surprised at all if he did. HK-47 is the most "loved" character of the three. his fanbase, while not big, is certainly loyal. KOTOR did pretty good against GTA:VC in the games contest (40%), and HK himself got a full 35% on 2004 Sora. that's not exactly great, but it's better than Lloyd's 28% on Zero. I'd say HK has the most impressive "resume" of the three and is probably the "safe" pick at this point. for some reason, though, I can't pick him. I think it's because I hesitate to see him bringing in 20% of the vote here. I think Sora got antivoted a lot back in 2004, and that HK's a bit inflated. I don't have a lot of faith in the KOTOR fanbase being all that numerous. which brings us to Jak. Jak's sole contest appearance is 45% against 2004 Ness when he was the favourite on this board. it's a decent showing, but PS2 platformers have never gotten a lot of love here. still, he's the most recognizable character of the bunch, and while he has the smallest "hardcore" following, I think he'll get the "casual" vote. plus, he's not all that much weaker than Ness. I don't really like picking any of these three guys, but if I have to pick one, I'll side with Jak. the Jakpack of Suck one of these losers moves on Jak is the least weak transience's prediction: Zero with 45.95%, Jak with 21.66%, HK-47 with 18.55%, Lloyd with 13.84% Guest’s Analysis - Who Cares? This match features something that has been quite rare in this contest, a poll with four characters that should have no major overlap of fanbases. Zero’s popularity comes primarily from the SNES, with a little help from the PS1 & GBA. HK-47 from the Xbox, Jak from the PS2, & Lloyd from the Gamcube. When I first saw this match on the bracket, it definitely struck me as a real toss up for 2nd place. (If Zero isn’t 1st on your bracket, it better be a zero (no pun) bracket or a favorites) So much so, that I felt there wasn’t really a horrible choice per se, as you could make a case for any of the three to come out on top. My choice from day one has been Zero > Lloyd since I pretty much drank the ‘Hardcore fanbases can score big in this format’ Kool-Aid like many others, and ToS fans can be very rabid at times. For the most part, since I’ve had no major reason for Lloyd winning other than that & the whole ‘on a Nintendo system’ argument, I decided to watch for any intangibles for each character I could spot in the days leading up to the match that could help determine a favorite for this writeup. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 7:31:37 PM | message detail |
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Moltar’s Prediction is: Zero: 41% - HK-47: 25% - Jak: 23% - Lloyd: 19% omg 108% --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:31:48 PM | message detail |
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HK-47 *Taking the KotOR fans word for it, HK is a huge favorite of theirs & should get the full support of every one of the game’s fans. *While his 35% performance on Sora already makes him look like the best of the three, seeing Agent 47 perform well enough in his match may have helped debunk the idea that Sora receives a hefty amount of anti-votes against weaker competition, making HK’s performance look even better. *KotOR 2 was released after the 2k4 contest, which could give him an addition boost. *If there’s one negative I can think of, Xbox characters outside of Master Chief have never been all that special in these contests, so I wouldn’t expect HK to breakaway if he lands in 2nd. Jak *Jak’s is easily the most mainstream of the three and will definitely have the support of the casual vote. *Despite losing to Ness with 45%, people big on the X-Stats can take heart that Ness has never had a clear reading thanks to being stuck behind SFF year after year, meaning he could be stronger than his actual placement. *Despite his casual appeal, Gamefaqs really doesn’t care for 3D platformer characters, as indicated by their rather sorry history in these contests. From as far back as Spyro getting his face kicked in by Morrigan Aensland in 2k2, to Crash, a former icon, finishing last in a poll featuring Bomberman & a guy that broke GFNW a few days ago. If you can think of a 3D platformer that’s appeared in these things, you can be sure that they’ve done poorly. *However, Crash not being totally buried in his fourpack should be something that would raise the hopes of people that have him finishing 2nd. Lloyd *While Lloyd isn’t totally hated, he’s far from the fan favorite of his game, that honor goes Kratos & perhaps even Sheena. Still he should have a fair amount of pull from the rabid ToS fanbase. *It may not mean much, but it is worth noting unlike Kratos & Zelos, Lloyd won’t be sharing the poll with someone that also appeared on the Gamecube. *As mentioned earlier, considering to ole ‘When in doubt, go with Nintendo & Square’ mentality, Lloyd is the closest to Nintendo as you’ll get in this match. (Which would explain why he’s the favorite in the BOP & Guru) *However, characters from cult RPGs have not been off to a good start in this contest. The only one that has really done anything is KOS-MOS, and even then, you can argue that Arthas & Diablo took each other out of the running. So yeah, looking at everything now compared to when I first made the bracket, Kratos & Zelos’ performances have made me lose a good deal of faith in the red swordsman, and it would no longer surprise me if he finished 4th in horrible fashion. (And if that happens; don’t you even THINK about bringing any of these guys back Symphonia fans!) And if I could make a change to my bracket, I would change to HK-47. Still, I don’t think anyone is really going to run away with 2nd & since Lloyd is in my bracket, I have to hope that he can grab the full support of the ToS fans, & that they can help him squeeze by HK and advance. Meh, not a great writeup…but look at the level of suck I have to work with! :P Character Preference: Zero by far Vote: Lloyd PREDICTION: Zero - 40%, HK-47 - 21.51%, Jak - 20.49%, Lloyd -18% Crew Consensus: Zero > HK-47 is the Crew pick. In 2nd we have Zero > Jak and in last with 1 is Zero > Lloyd. |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:32:57 PM | message detail |
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that haiku was weak --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:33:11 PM | message detail |
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omg 108% Well if 100% weren't so close to 110%, then my life would be so much easier. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60) |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:33:52 PM | message detail |
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moltar wanna make out --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| MMXcalibur | Posted 9/17/2007 7:34:31 PM | message detail |
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1 1/2 more hours to go! Hold on, you stupid bastard! --- HOT WOMEN: http://plum.sakura.ne.jp/~alice/gallery/graphic/2006/796hp.jpg http://plum.sakura.ne.jp/~alice/gallery/graphic/2006/844hp.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 7:35:52 PM | message detail |
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sure big black wangs 4 lyfe --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60) |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:36:11 PM | message detail |
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if raiden doesn't win this match id crap in my pants and eat it at this point --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 7:36:58 PM | message detail |
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brb voting for sam --- xyzzy |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:37:22 PM | message detail |
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ok see you --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 7:37:34 PM | message detail |
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oh hey look raiden down 22 --- xyzzy |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:38:00 PM | message detail |
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oh god --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:45:33 PM | message detail |
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03. 0346 The Boss/Tails in Vincent vs Zelda vs The Boss vs Tails (Round 1) 04. 0347 Arthas/Diablo in Mega Man vs KOS-MOS vs Diablo vs Arthas (Round 1) Raiden wins by 348 confirmed. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 7:54:57 PM | message detail |
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Round 1- Division 4 Group D Characters Involved: HK-47 Summer 2004 Contest Chaos Division - 11 Seed Chaos Round 1 --- Lost to (6) Sora, 28392 [34.45%] - 54034 [65.55%] Extrapolated Strength --- 43rd Place [18.58%] HK is the smartass droid from the X-Box Star Wars RPG Knights of the Old Republic. Definitely has a shot at moving on, although I think the relative oldness of his games, coupled with their lack of lasting power and being on the original X-Box will hurt his chances here. Jak Summer 2004 Contest Midgar Division - 11 Seed Midgar Round 1 --- Lost to (6) Ness, 32733 [44.92%] - 40130 [55.08%] Extrapolated Strength --- 48th Place [17.20%] Jak hasn't been seen since his loss to Ness, and Ness' repeated SFF losses means we really don't have a solid idea of where Jak stands. He's my pick to take second here. Lloyd Summer 2005 Contest Mushroom Division - 2 Seed Mushroom Round 1 --- Defeated (7) Wesker, 46373 [54.69%] - 38421 [45.31%] Mushroom Semifinal --- Lost to (3) Zero, 23938 [26.75%] - 65557 [73.25%] Extrapolated Strength --- 58th Place [15.73%] He was a board favourite when the bracket came out, but after his ToS compadres Kratos Aurion and Zelos bombed, it's safe to say he's coming in last here. He barely beat Wesker. The same Wesker Kefka got over 70% on. Not only that, but his only other match was a slaughtering at Zero's hands, it's safe to say Lloyd comes last here. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 7:55:14 PM | message detail |
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Zero Summer 2003 Contest East Division - 7 Seed Eastern Round 1 --- Defeated (10) Scorpion, 70885 [62.84%] – 41916 [37.16%] Eastern Quarterfinal --- Lost to (2) Sonic the Hedgehog, 47261 [47.66%] - 51903 [52.34%] Extrapolated Strength --- 14th Place [33.28%] Summer 2004 Contest 20XX Division - 4 Seed 20XX Round 1 --- Defeated (13) Protoman, 58317 [71.72%] - 22993 [28.28%] 20XX Quarterfinal --- Defeated (5) Tommy Vercetti, 49875 [61.84%] - 30775 [38.16%] 20XX Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Mega Man, 36800 [43.99%] - 46849 [56.01%] Extrapolated Strength --- 11th Place [33.96%] Summer 2005 Contest Mushroom Division - 3 Seed Mushroom Round 1 --- Defeated (6) Ryu Hayabusa, 57507 [63.00%] - 33771 [37.00%] Mushroom Semifinal --- Defeated (2) Lloyd Irving, 65557 [73.25%] - 23938 [26.75%] Mushroom Final --- Lost to (1) Mario, 39856 [37.14%] - 67452 [62.86%] Extrapolated Strength --- 19th Place [29.41%] Summer 2006 Contest Blast Division - 7 Seed Blast Round 1 --- Lost to (2) Luigi, 60207 [46.29%] - 69851 [53.71%] Extrapolated Strength --- 25th Place [31.12%] Ah Zero, my second dark horse this year. Despite his loss to Luigi last year (which I'll elaborate on later), Zero is still very much a strong character in these things, and is a lock to take first by a good margin, and after Raiden bombed today, there's no doubt he'll be going to round 3 with Crono. Predictions: This was a pretty hotly debated match pre-contest. Strong arguments could be made for all 3 characters to take second. However, as contest events unfolded, it became clear that Lloyd won't likely be advancing here. So let's look at HK-47 and Jak. Both debuted in the 2004 contest, HK scored 35% on pre-KH2 Sora and Jak got 45% on Ness. Since we've never had a reliable read on Ness, it's hard to place Jak, but he does have a few things working for him. First of all, higher votals coupled with casual characters shining so far this contest really helps the PS2 platforming star. His games have sold quite well, and settled with the group that could be classified as "the kiddies". Secondly, HK-47 hasn't had a game since just after the 2004 contest, while Jak has had Jak 3 and Jak X Combat Racing since. That coupled with the fact that HK may have benefited from being against Sora (who let Tingle get 25% on him after Kingdom Hearts 2) leads me to believe that Jak was always the stronger of the two. Expect this match to have a good sized swing as HK takes the night vote but Jak comes roaring back in the day time. As for percentages, Zero should have no trouble breaking 45% here. The only thing I could see hindering him is the match pic, where his back is to the viewer, leaving out his face, his signature pony tail and his Z-sabre. It's the same picture he got against Luigi last year, and we all know how that went <_< TuRtLe's Prediction: Zero 44%, Jak 22%, HK-47 19%, Lloyd 15% TuRtLe's Bracket: Zero > Jak TuRtLe's Vote: Zero |
| TimJab | Posted 9/17/2007 8:00:46 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Raiden is this bad. I've beaten MGS2 a few times and I
don't even recognize him in the picture. Give him a picture that people
recognize and I think he blows Fisher out of the water. And before you say the picture doesn't matter, a bad picture caused Link's only head to head loss ever. So yeah, it matters. --- alt.8: http://alt8.proboards56.com Just call me TJ |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:01:01 PM | message detail |
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Wow, I managed to lowball Zero compared to KH here? WHAT IS THIS SORCERY!? TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/17/2007 8:02:00 PM | message detail |
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a bad picture caused Link's only head to head loss ever Actually it's called Kingdom Hearts, maybe you've heard of it? --- http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 8:03:08 PM | message detail |
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a bad picture caused Link's only head to head loss ever Actually it's called Operation Shadow, maybe you've heard of it? ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:03:42 PM | message detail |
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I always overestimate the obvious
winners' percentages. It's tradition at this point; I'm surprised even
one person went as high as I did. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:09:05 PM | message detail |
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West Division Factor?...the fact that I remember that makes me feel old! I remembered being one of the major reasons that factor came into existence. Heck I remember naming it. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 15: Crono > Raiden Points: 42/56 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:09:18 PM | message detail |
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Also internet ^5 to all the Jak supporters. I really think HK's number on Sora is inflated due to Sora anti-votes. KotOR is popular, but still a very niche series, especially 3 years after the second game came out. TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/17/2007 8:14:25 PM | message detail |
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I will bring my Crash real estate to vote for Jak! ^5 BT --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. The cream of Chocobo fanboyism. |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 8:32:36 PM | message detail |
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thoughts: Lloyd should have a great board vote, plus BRACKETS HK.. I don't know when his best time is. one would think it's the nighttime, but I really have no idea. Jak's best time should definitely be the day, so if he's close in the opening minutes, I like his chances. Lloyd is also a good day vote guy, but I bet his board vote is far better than that. --- xyzzy |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:32:58 PM | message detail |
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...This fell off the first page. o.O Probably because the percentages haven't moved at all in ages, but it's still strange. <_< ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 8:33:00 PM | message detail |
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oh and I'll take Raiden with 43% of the brackets. --- xyzzy |
| BDawg | Posted 9/17/2007 8:33:24 PM | message detail |
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At least Fisher didn't get as close as Bomberman before fading. That was pretty maddening. --- Should I start running now? |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:34:20 PM | message detail |
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I'd place good money on HK being a day vote character. I mean... he's Xbox.
What more do you want? His day being better relative to Jak's is
another thing, though... that I'll have to see unfold as it happens. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/17/2007 8:34:35 PM | message detail |
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Wow. Simon has a great power hour. --- Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need. |
| heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 8:35:04 PM | message detail |
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I think HK should be pretty even throughout.. same with Zero. Zero
might have the 1-2 hour locked up though, just like Crono did. --- xyzzy |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:36:39 PM | message detail |
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The only thing against HK having a good day vote is the fact that it's
an RPG on the regular X-Box. I definitely see him as more of a
night-vote guy, despite what happened in his match with Sora. TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:37:43 PM | message detail |
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And by good day vote, I mean exceptional. HK should be relatively
steady, while I can see Jak faltering at night then taking off with the
ASV TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:40:03 PM | message detail |
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Got to give Crono a hand here, he only fell 1.5%. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 15: Crono > Raiden Points: 42/56 |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:44:40 PM | message detail |
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Crono basically went up and back down the same all day. That's the definition of consistency. PREDICTION: Crono's night vote won't be as ultra great as before but the drop off is his day vote won't be too great a drop either. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:55:05 PM | message detail |
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You have to remember, last year Crono was against day vote beasts every
match. His day vote isn't as bad as people make it out to be, he just
usually gets stuck against characters who kick ass with it. Crono won't
drop much next round either, unless Zero manages to rock the day vote
or Jak makes it through. TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:55:41 PM | message detail |
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No, the definition of consistency would be someone like Raiden, who was at 20.XX% for very nearly the entire match. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:56:23 PM | message detail |
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HK-47 kept up with Sora in the day, so he's looking to have a good day
vote. Jak, I think has a good day vote, too. I guess it will be Lloyd
and Zero that will drop a bit in the day, though they're not bad with
it. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:56:25 PM | message detail |
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So, what do you guys think Crono's prediction will be at? Crono tends to be underrated by casuals, but the fact that he was likely to pull through and his name was first means he's quitely to have a good chunk. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2007 8:57:13 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait to see HK-47 kick Lloyd and Jak's ass. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 9:00:15 PM | message detail |
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gogo HK! --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe HK-47/Lloyd/Jak/Zero - Bracket: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: HK-47 (52/60) |
| Janus5000 | Posted 9/17/2007 9:00:20 PM | message detail |
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HK-47 23.08% 15 Lloyd Irving 29.23% 19 Jak 16.92% 11 Zero 30.77% 20 TOTAL VOTES 65 --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin |
| Tediz247 | Posted 9/17/2007 9:00:34 PM | message detail |
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HK-47 33.33% 5 Lloyd Irving 46.67% 7 Jak 6.67% 1 Zero 13.33% 2 TOTAL VOTES 15 Lloyd Irving, board vote beast. Aww yeah. --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end. ZSB [aX] |
