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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 487

MMXcalibur | Posted 9/17/2007 4:37:35 PM | message detail
Oh boy! Another day vote comeback!
....I am ALWAYS on the short end of these goddamn things.
ALWAYS
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2007 4:38:47 PM | message detail
we're having so many comebacks in this contest that it drives me crazy to come home everyday seeing the day vote have someone cut someone else's lead off.
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Today: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono
Tomorrow: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: Zero - Points: 46/56
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 4:39:01 PM | message detail
it wouldn't be a contest match without MMXC whining

or Turtle bringing up Zero

or HM and Moltar typing "believe" 456 times
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xyzzy
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 4:41:31 PM | message detail
...Have there been any comeback attempts that actually ended up working? <_<
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/17/2007 4:42:06 PM | message detail
...Have there been any comeback attempts that actually ended up working? <_<

Frog, though that was a last-hour crazy unprecedented comeback.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 4:43:09 PM | message detail
Marcus, also.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 4:43:10 PM | message detail
Marcus, Axel's was certainly successful, Knuckles
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xyzzy
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 4:43:31 PM | message detail
I consider that more of Axel's comeback failing. Anything else?
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 4:44:17 PM | message detail
Axel's comback didn't fail.

Frog is just...Frog.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 4:44:48 PM | message detail
Really? I thought Marcus had been ahead from the beginning. Same with Knuckles.

Stupid school. >=/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 4:52:33 PM | message detail
Looking like we're having some sustained stalling here. Possibly localised variance, but Raiden +8 in the last 20 is a good sign
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 4:54:19 PM | message detail
it wouldn't be a contest match without MMXC whining

or Turtle bringing up Zero

or HM and Moltar typing "believe" 456 times


Imagine how it will be when Zero is winning in his third round match

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/17/2007 4:54:51 PM | message detail
Stupid Raiden, stop preventing the massive destruction of brackets everywhere!
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http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 4:55:22 PM | message detail
pretty sure Fisher is actually the "bracket favourite" here, board 8 notwithstanding
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 4:59:09 PM | message detail
Crono and Vincent
would slaughter poor Luigi.
Zero is weaksauce.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 4:59:27 PM | message detail
I'm not worried about Raiden here. And I've been pretty good at calling these close matches this year. I gave up on Bomberman early in the match, but stuck with Marcus and Frog.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
NominateSerge | Posted 9/17/2007 4:59:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, Raiden's got this one. He's just going to stall Fisher at worst until the end of the match by now. Sam's window of opportunity is closed shut.

I feel ya buddy. I just hope Raiden was the overall favorite for second so that if Sam wins, I don't take too much damage.

Honestly, I fully expect Sam to be the favorite for #2. He had 65% taking him past Gordon (Remember, Leon was an underdog), and 30% apparently thought he could beat DK.

By the way, someone tell me why Vincent only had 62% taking him to round 2? How in the world did 38% of people expect Tails or The Boss to beat him?
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Vote for Serge.
NominateSerge | Posted 9/17/2007 5:00:28 PM | message detail
And as far as Crono's performance is concerned, he's doing just what he needed to do. He's not going to get 50% when it's all said and done, but 48-49% is good enough.
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Vote for Serge.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:02:02 PM | message detail
Only 25% of brackets took Vincent to beat Dante back in 2005, if I recall correctly. And just when I'm about to call this one over, Sam cuts 37 votes off the lead.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 5:02:30 PM | message detail
Like I said earlier, 47-53% is the range Crono should have fallen in. Anything less would be disappointing, anything more would be Vincent not having a chance.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 5:03:27 PM | message detail
Updates left: 48
Votes needed: 569
Votes/update: 11.85
Current comeback rate (last 30/60/120): 6.17/10.75/14.42
hyachachacha at: not happening

Last half hour looks like killing things, were it not for that last five minutes I'd be making fork and fisher comments
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 5:10:03 PM | message detail
I don't think this gets below 400 votes.. and I'm being conservative there.
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/17/2007 5:17:16 PM | message detail
Fisher doesn't look like he's giving up yet.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 5:17:55 PM | message detail
yeah, I jinxed Raiden. prove me wrong!
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xyzzy
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 5:20:19 PM | message detail

or HM and Moltar typing "believe" 456 times


believe

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 5:20:34 PM | message detail
Is there a reason for Sam to not continue gaining votes? Kefka won the early morning against Marcus and never stalled Marcus, why will Raiden?


KB
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:14 PM | message detail
Even if Sam does continue gaining all night, it needs to be more than 100/hour.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:38 PM | message detail
whoa.

hmm... maybe I was wrong.
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:50 PM | message detail
...*cough*
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:52 PM | message detail
My god, that's one hell of a cut
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:57 PM | message detail
Sam should decline a bit towards the end of the poll, but I wouldn't be surprised if Raiden stayed in the 19-21% range he's been in almost the entire day. I guess the only question is how much will Sam slow down.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2007 5:22:46 PM | message detail
Haha.

It'd be something if Fisher could pull this one off.

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 5:22:58 PM | message detail
hey kb you can stop stuffing any day now =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 5:23:08 PM | message detail
what the crunk sam fisher slow down you
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56)
ZhangJunyi | Posted 9/17/2007 5:23:18 PM | message detail
...Why is Fisher getting a rally on his side? O.o

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Gaddswell | Posted 9/17/2007 5:23:55 PM | message detail
Nice. Another day vote comeback. A lot of these are happening lately.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:24:17 PM | message detail
Perhaps...Hawaii is getting out of school?

<_<;;
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 5:25:40 PM | message detail
darn you oahu
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xyzzy
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/17/2007 5:25:51 PM | message detail
For the record, Phoenix's lead was 130 at this point. Bomberman got his closest margin one hour and fifteen minutes later.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 5:25:58 PM | message detail
hey kb you can stop stuffing any day now =/

-_-


Ohh I would guess Sam is getting a good boost in strength from Double Agent. No one has really mentioned it at all.

The game was released on Xbox, Xbox360, PS2, Gamecube, and the Wii!!! Not to mention the PSP Splinter Cell that came out last year too.

People have seen his face alot.

GO FISHER!


KB
Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 5:26:12 PM | message detail
Hawaii Factor confirmed
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56)
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/17/2007 5:27:25 PM | message detail
Overall Prediction Percentage

Link – 97.90%
Samus Aran – 96.93%
Mario – 96.43%
Cloud Strife – 96.27%
Sephiroth – 93.83%
Mega Man – 93.59%
Bowser – 87.01%
Fox McCloud – 83.80%
Auron – 82.99%
Princess Zelda – 82.36%
Yoshi – 80.87%
Ryu – 72.55%
Kefka – 71.89%
Scorpion – 66.71%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 65.06%
Vincent Valentine – 62.43%
Knuckles the Echidna – 59.12%
Marcus Fenix – 56.14%
Revolver Ocelot – 55.29%
Wario – 54.25%
Magus – 51.57%
Midna – 44.74%
Phoenix Wright – 43.75%
Frog – 42.74%
Meta-Knight – 38.02%
Bidoof – 34.56%
Big Boss – 33.79%
KOS-MOS – 30.09%

Highest Correctly Placed Prediction Percentage

Cloud Strife – 93.00%
Mario – 81.52%
Link – 74.77%
Auron – 69.36%
Samus Aran – 58.33%
Sephiroth – 53.03%
Revolver Ocelot – 52.84%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 51.65%
Princess Zelda – 49.78%
Fox McCloud – 44.12%
Mega Man – 43.16%
Wario – 37.95%
Vincent Valentine – 31.05%
Yoshi – 29.96%
Marcus Fenix – 28.55%
Phoenix Wright – 26.89%
Midna – 26.05%
Frog – 25.40%
Bidoof – 23.11%
Knuckles the Echidna – 21.34%
Magus – 21.17%
Scorpion – 20.12%
Big Boss – 19.19%
KOS-MOS – 18.17%
Ryu – 18.02%
Bowser – 16.75%
Meta-Knight – 16.65%
Kefka – 14.27%

Highest Incorrectly Placed Percentage

Bowser – 70.26%
Kefka – 57.62%
Ryu – 54.53%
Yoshi – 50.91%
Mega Man – 50.43%
Scorpion – 46.59%
Sephiroth – 40.80%
Fox McCloud – 39.68%
Samus Aran – 38.60%
Knuckles the Echidna – 57.78%
Princess Zelda – 32.58%
Vincent Valentine – 31.38%
Magus – 30.80%
Marcus Fenix – 27.59%
Link – 23.13%
Meta-Knight – 21.37%
Midna – 18.69%
Frog – 17.34%
Phoenix Wright – 16.86%
Wario – 16.30%
Mario – 14.91%
Big Boss – 14.60%
Auron – 13.63%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 13.41%
KOS-MOS – 11.92%
Bidoof – 11.45%
Cloud Strife – 3.27%
Revolver Ocelot – 2.45%
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 5:28:39 PM | message detail
I would guess Sam is getting a good boost in strength from Double Agent. No one has really mentioned it at all.

That's because it doesn't matter, this is Raiden's weakness, Fisher isn't strong, et cetera
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 5:29:35 PM | message detail
Oh, second night vote, whatever happened to you?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 5:29:59 PM | message detail
That's because it doesn't matter, this is Raiden's weakness, Fisher isn't strong, et cetera

You dont think a well received game that crosses over 6 platforms would help him get stronger?


KB
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/17/2007 5:30:24 PM | message detail
Double Agent was actually seen as a disappointment by SC fans.

Believe it or not, there are two versions of Double Agent by two different developers and the only thing that differentiates the versions are a couple levels. It was just very screwy though with Conviction coming out it looks to set it right.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 5:31:10 PM | message detail
And on weekdays we know there's not really so much of a 'night vote' as it is a 'night stall'. Not that I expected Fisher to accelerate as we got closer to the night hours, so Raiden may be in trouble yet... or it may be Fisher just being inconsistent again.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 5:31:47 PM | message detail
I think it'd be a combination of both.

Recent trends have show mainstream games to be more accepted on this site, whether by userbase shift, or the elitist tools from 4 years ago finally hitting puberty.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/17/2007 5:33:00 PM | message detail
Those last two updates were Sam dropping WAY off. Might be a result of the lower night vote totals. The votes didn't go to any other character. They just...disappeared.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:33:17 PM | message detail
The second night vote doesn't really start on weekdays during the school year until about 11 PM.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
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