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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 487

KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 1:43:37 PM | message detail
Jak and HK-47 both have an equal chance of winning. Lloyd is the far outside shot.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 1:43:39 PM | message detail
I have Zero > HK-47. The two who have the worst pictures. =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
ESY16 | Posted 9/17/2007 1:44:25 PM | message detail
I have HK-47 but wrestled with the idea of putting Jak in for a while before the lock.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2007 1:44:47 PM | message detail
I have a strange feeling Jak'll pull it off too.. but HK-47 isn't really that far from Jak.
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Today: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono
Tomorrow: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: Zero - Points: 46/56
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 1:45:07 PM | message detail
Zero doesn't stand a ghost of a chance with that picture!

HK-47 > Lloyd ftw
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delicious cats
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NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 1:45:16 PM | message detail
The genius of this new format is that everyone's careful statistical analysis is all pretty useless. I don't think we've seen Crono weaken much at all, for two reasons:

1. Crono v 3 weak characters is not the same as Crono v 1 character three times as strong. Each of those characters has a hardcore fanbase, and only Noble Niners have a hardcore fanbase equal to the combined fanbase of Crono's opponents. Thus, if Crono fails to get 50% here, it still means he's Noble Nine standard. And not weakened very much.
2. Gah I forgot the other. Crono's still cool, anyway. >_>
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 1:46:23 PM | message detail
The genius of this new format is that everyone's careful statistical analysis is all pretty useless

Meh, mine's doing OK, I've only had one major foul-up so far

Last couple of updates have been a lot more sensible, thank god
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 1:47:36 PM | message detail
By that logic Crono could have gotten any percentage and still been considered "Noble Nine Standard". That's obviously not true, though it's nigh impossible to say what that percentage should be.

Relative to expectations however, many would say Crono is disappointing (especially considering Raiden appears to be much weaker than many were placing him).
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delicious cats
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 1:51:58 PM | message detail
Three stalls in a row. Sam running out of steam?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 1:53:23 PM | message detail
Or Raiden getting ready to make a comeback of epic proportions and beat out Crono for 1st?

You decide!
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 1:54:48 PM | message detail
Sam's probably got a few big surges left in him, timed with each hour (the rush of teh kiddies getting home from school in each time zone). Based on that, though... he'll be lucky for the lead to finish under 1000.
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delicious cats
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 1:56:08 PM | message detail
Err, 900. Don't know what I was looking at when I said that. o.O
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 2:00:55 PM | message detail
HK-47 is XboX, he'll do well with the day. HK-47 wins tomorrow

HK-47 is from an RPG. I'd expect him to be relatively steady all match. The one who will have the most day/night disparity is Jak. He should do loads better with the after school vote than any time during the night.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 2:01:10 PM | message detail
that ten minute, 100 vote cut was just a fluke? weird. let's see if he does it again, I guess. I still haven't wavered from Raiden, but Fisher seems to have the ability to make me second-guess myself if he pulls any more of those.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:02:28 PM | message detail
HK-47 is from an RPG. I'd expect him to be relatively steady all match.

He gained on Sora in the day. WHY DO YOU TALK
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delicious cats
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BDawg | Posted 9/17/2007 2:02:43 PM | message detail
Eh Fisher has no real chance, this is more of a make in interesting kind of thing. And it looks like Raiden is fortifying his 1000 vote barrier.
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Should I start running now?
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 2:02:44 PM | message detail
Updates left: 84
Votes required: 1088
Votes needed per update: 12.95
Comeback rate (last 30/last hr/last 2 hrs): 12.5/19/15
Carriers arrive at: 11:10 EST
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 2:03:14 PM | message detail
also, Lloyd is a Tales character. Tales characters are pretty good in the daytime. he went even with Zero in 2k5.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:03:27 PM | message detail
And Raiden making a slight gain? That sounds like it's time for *school bell*

...exactly. Surge #3 coming right up
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delicious cats
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 2:04:46 PM | message detail
Crono's still fighting to stay above 48%. Looks like he might even pull it off.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 2:05:18 PM | message detail
Man, looking at it, Lloyd has a damn good day vote. He had Zero at 63% at the freeze, although he did go on to lose 10% by the end of the match.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 2:06:39 PM | message detail
Where are the kiddies KH?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BDawg | Posted 9/17/2007 2:06:59 PM | message detail
Well, at least Lloyd won't have Tom Nook there to viciously beat him down.
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Should I start running now?
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/17/2007 2:07:57 PM | message detail
Who's likely to take the kiddy vote from this? >_>
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:08:37 PM | message detail
Damn kiddies falling asleep in class

I blame Mountain Time Zone for messing up my predictions
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delicious cats
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 2:08:48 PM | message detail
Sam. Don't you know kids these days are all about playing HARDCORE games that make them look cool?
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 2:09:28 PM | message detail
By day vote I meant board vote

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ESY16 | Posted 9/17/2007 2:09:33 PM | message detail
Who's likely to take the kiddy vote from this? >_>

Sam most likely.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 2:11:45 PM | message detail
KIDDY RUSH
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:12:47 PM | message detail
I submit this as evidence that Mountain Time Zone Children are slow and that NCLB is a failure
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delicious cats
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/17/2007 2:17:16 PM | message detail
This rush is much less...well, rushy than the last one.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/17/2007 2:18:04 PM | message detail
So much for Raiden being strong....
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Hi
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 2:18:34 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 9/17/2007 5:12:47 PM #280
I submit this as evidence that Mountain Time Zone Children are slow and that NCLB is a failure

Sam's big gains should be coming 5-10 minutes from now. Be patient. D:

Didn't we see the similar thing with Bomberman making huge gains at set intervals every hour until after the PST kiddies got out at 6:XX? o.O
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:18:46 PM | message detail
But more consistent. Plus, if he ends up blitzing anyway (it was 100 votes in only TEN minutes) that's all the better for Fisher.
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delicious cats
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Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 2:21:19 PM | message detail
The rush started at the :25 update and ended at the :35 one. So expect these next three updates to be painful. :x
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:32:30 PM | message detail
...wow, right on schedule.

If he can cut and blitz for the rest of the afterschool vote... he still loses. But it looks close on paper!
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delicious cats
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 2:33:01 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 2:33:02 PM | message detail
Updates left: 78
Votes needed: 987
Votes/update needed: 12.65
Comeback rate (last 30/60/120): 16.83/14.67/16.67
OBJECTION! at: 10:35 EST
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 2:33:46 PM | message detail
Sammy F: How are you gentlemen !!
: All your 1000 vote barrier are belong to us.
: You are on the way to destruction.
Raiden: What you say !!
Sam the Fisherman: You have no chance to survive make your time.

*sigh*
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/17/2007 2:34:30 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 9/17/2007 5:32:30 PM #286
If he can cut and blitz for the rest of the afterschool vote... he still loses.

As it should be!

Which is nice because it let's us see whether or not the picture did indeed make any difference. (Depends on how much Raiden beats Zero by. <_<)
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 2:35:25 PM | message detail
check out Crono's stall here! no percentage lost!

screw this battle for who's less weak
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:36:56 PM | message detail
Crono wins the day vote over Vincent book it
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delicious cats
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 2:38:06 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b15.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b40.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k4/sum04b12.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k4/sum04b38.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k4/sum04b51.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/b03.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/b34.jpg
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/br49.jpg

Compared to:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb2k6/cb528.jpg

Zero underperformance tomorrow?

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 2:39:22 PM | message detail
Hey, Crono did win the day vote over Vincent last time sort of.....Vincent's peak was around 7 in the morning. Crono gained more during school hours than Vincent could cut afterward.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:39:24 PM | message detail
Let's blame the Luigi performance on the picture

Zero will be FINE, and it's not like it'll matter, he's got it easily, why am I consoling Black Turtle
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delicious cats
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heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 2:41:53 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 2:42:08 PM | message detail
On a serious note though, Crono is going to need a BEASTLY lead during the night if what Vincent did to Zelda in the day is any indication.
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delicious cats
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 2:42:41 PM | message detail
zero loses book it
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mmm feel the vibration baby
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 2:42:54 PM | message detail
Caps lock is cruise control for old.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 42/56; Oracle - 38th
heroic tranny | Posted 9/17/2007 2:43:10 PM | message detail
and yeah, I don't think comparing Crono/Vincent to Frog/Axel is an exaggeration. Crono *needs* that kind of 800 vote lead after an hour, because it just isn't going to last.
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xyzzy
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