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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 487

The Mana Sword | Posted 9/17/2007 11:17:22 AM | message detail
Hmmm...yeah. I can't really see Raiden doing that much worse than Fisher with the after-school vote...if he's even worse at all. I'd be pretty surprised if Raiden dropped the match at this point.

Naked Raiden Cartwheel pic for Round 2, plz.
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Kleenex - Not on his computer.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 11:31:34 AM | message detail
Aren't all the stats topics archived somewhere? I thought I saw it a while ago.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 11:36:28 AM | message detail
37 cut by Fisher! After school vote starting?
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 11:39:11 AM | message detail
Think some of the older stats topics are archived, dunno where, probably somewhere in the first post links.

Nice cut there, yes, may need to wait and see until 3 as to whether it's a blip or an actual voting shift
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 11:40:20 AM | message detail
I only found ones from like 3 years ago but I could have sworn there were more recent ones archived by TRE or someone.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 11:42:02 AM | message detail
What the hell is this crap, Raiden gets 75 one update and 120 the next?
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 11:48:45 AM | message detail
never watched a match before, eh?
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2007 11:53:03 AM | message detail
So how bout that HK-47 > Lloyd
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/17/2007 11:56:08 AM | message detail
Er...is Sam making a comeback against Raiden? I've been at school all morning and for the better part of two hours ago.

That's not what my bracket needs >_>
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1 of 321 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
Ngamer64 | Posted 9/17/2007 11:57:12 AM | message detail
Come now Jon, let's at least check the links in the first post.

http://thengamer.com/stats

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The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru
thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 11:58:25 AM | message detail
Yay. Another match from the line of slowest comebacks ever
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
ffmasterjose | Posted 9/17/2007 12:02:46 PM | message detail
1472 to 1448 within one update. Oh man, come on Raiden.

This does not make my Zero > Lloyd pick look good tomorrow.
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1 of 321 - The Great GameFAQs Character Battle VI
Ago una , intereo unus
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 12:03:04 PM | message detail
Thanks Ngamer :)
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:03:42 PM | message detail
Fisher starts off the afterschool vote nicely... I doubt it'll be enough, though.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 12:04:22 PM | message detail
For some reason 4-way matches seem to encourage epic comebacks... I suppose having three leads to obsess over rather than one increases the chances.
ff6man | Posted 9/17/2007 12:04:29 PM | message detail
C'mon Fisher, bring it home!
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Runescape: Igglybuff138, Skill total 1600+
CB2k7: 36/56 points. Today: Crono > Sam Fisher
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:07:47 PM | message detail
this is a fairly nice start, actually. Axel started about the same way, if I remember.

but... it's not Frog we're dealing with here.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 9/17/2007 12:08:01 PM | message detail
So whos expected to take second in Zeros match?

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Can't think of a good sig.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/17/2007 12:10:16 PM | message detail
hmm... I think Jak could be the favourite, but I got Lloyd for some reason. But considering how bad Zelos did, Lloyd shouldn't do well at all.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 12:10:33 PM | message detail
Eh you know, I'm not so sure this four pack is weaker than Mega Man's at all.

I'm still not convinced Arthas isn't fodder (though he's higher fodder than I thought), I just think it's the case that Diablows in this format or that maybe Arthas SFFed him. Sam Fisher probably doesn't lose to KOS-MOS by that much.

I don't think this is looking bad for Crono at all, really. Or Raiden. I mean... I certainly wanted him to be stronger than this, but he's still clearly above the fodder line at least. And it's possible that the MGS4 pic might be hurting him a bit. I wouldn't bet on it, but it wouldn't surprise me too much.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2007 12:15:34 PM | message detail
Eh you know, I'm not so sure this four pack is weaker than Mega Man's at all.

As a whole? I think it certainly is. Everyone in his fourpack was stronger than Simon Belmont. I think Diablo's the lead choice for the strongest out of two both groups, too.

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:16:56 PM | message detail
yeah, that post just reeks of spin, dude. Raiden is doing pretty bad here, and if Fisher keeps making 40 vote cuts, this may actually be interesting.

still think Raiden wins, but we really don't know his trends at all.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:17:30 PM | message detail
Time | Crono . . | Fisher . | Simon . | Raiden
01:00 | 47.96% | 17.54% | 13.88% | 20.62%
02:00 | 51.38% | 16.45% | 12.61% | 19.57%
03:00 | 49.91% | 17.64% | 13.03% | 19.42%
04:00 | 48.25% | 15.87% | 12.92% | 22.95%
05:00 | 49.13% | 17.31% | 14.03% | 19.53%
06:00 | 46.06% | 16.93% | 12.52% | 24.49%
07:00 | 46.68% | 20.53% | 12.22% | 20.56%
08:00 | 46.39% | 20.82% | 13.06% | 19.74%
09:00 | 47.49% | 19.18% | 13.10% | 20.23%
10:00 | 48.66% | 18.50% | 13.80% | 19.04%
11:00 | 49.06% | 18.41% | 12.60% | 19.94%
12:00 | 47.90% | 19.65% | 12.38% | 20.08%
13:00 | 48.42% | 19.34% | 11.42% | 20.83%
14:00 | 49.59% | 18.67% | 11.38% | 20.36%
15:00 | 47.95% | 20.56% | 10.79% | 20.70%
15:15 | 45.70% | 22.97% | 10.80% | 20.53%

The 3:15 update was added as a super special awesome bonus.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 12:18:27 PM | message detail
Diablo is definitely the strongest out of the two groups, but in the situation he was in he's probably weaker than Sam Fisher and Raiden. And I wouldn't expect him to be that far ahead of Simon Belmont.

And yuck, Raiden. I will say he's disappointed me if he ends up losing to Sam Fisher here.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/17/2007 12:18:54 PM | message detail
Why isn't more people voting for Simon Belmont >_>
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 12:20:23 PM | message detail
It's all Crono's fault! Dammit, palm tree head, hold it together!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:21:18 PM | message detail
the best part of this whole thing is that Raiden isn't even losing percentage. this is all Crono's doing.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:13 PM | message detail
well and Simon Belmont. he's going to get some single-digit percentage hours by the end of the day. still don't see why some people expected him to have strength - you want to talk about a guy that's past his prime?
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:15 PM | message detail
darn you crono
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mmm feel the vibration baby
Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:22 PM | message detail
SAM! Stop playing around...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:38 PM | message detail
Eh, I can't see it being even being kinda close. Diablo, Arthas, KOS-MOS -- they rock Simon's world one-on-one. I'd take all three over Sam Fisher, too, although I can see how one would think that might be close and up for debate. But still, I think there's a pretty noticeable difference in competition between what Crono's facing and what Mega Man faced.

Outside of Cloud, I think Mega Man has performed the best compared to his competition.

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2007 12:23:13 PM | message detail
That's because Crono is a pimp daddy
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:24:56 PM | message detail
the best part of this whole thing is that Raiden isn't even losing percentage. this is all Crono's doing.

Check this out:

Time | Crono . . | Fisher . | Simon . | Raiden
14:30 | 49.63% | 18.96% | 10.82% | 20.59%
14:45 | 46.91% | 21.31% | 11.39% | 20.39%
15:00 | 47.44% | 22.50% | 09.63% | 20.44%
15:15 | 45.70% | 22.97% | 10.80% | 20.53%

Simon and Raiden stay put, but Crono falls right on schedule. 2:45 is always such an abrupt change...
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:24:57 PM | message detail
noble nine performances?

Cloud > Link > Samus > Mega Man > Mario > Crono > Sephiroth

that's relative to their competition and expectations, of course.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2007 12:29:52 PM | message detail
Hm. Give me something like this:

Cloud > Mega Man > Link > Samus > Mario > Crono > Sephiroth

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:30:20 PM | message detail
Relative to what one would expect (in my own retrospect), I'd say more like....
Mega Man > Cloud > Samus > Link > Mario > Sephiroth > Crono.

But, as for purely what the competition infers in terms of strength...
Cloud > Link (of course, Link still beats Cloud) > Sephiroth > Mega Man > Samus > Mario > Crono

Not that I agree with such an order in the least, except that maybe Mega Man isn't below Crono.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/17/2007 12:31:56 PM | message detail
so.. should we be wary of a comeback or..
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Today: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono
Tomorrow: Zero > HK-47 - Vote: Zero - Points: 46/56
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 12:32:10 PM | message detail
Eh. If you look at the raw power of the four packs you're sure to think Mega Man's is a good deal stronger. I'm just saying stick Simon Belmont in the four pack instead of KOS-MOS and he probably gets around the same % he's getting here just because Arthas is weak and Diablo has no hardcore backing.

Of course that makes Diablo and Arthas and Mega Man go up, but not ridiculously so. Put Sam Fisher or Raiden in that four pack instead of KOS-MOS and I take them to take second easy.

... but blah at this. Raiden should not have to squeak by Sam Fisher!
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
swirIdude | Posted 9/17/2007 12:32:52 PM | message detail
Sam will need to make bigger cuts for the rest of the match to make a comeback.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/17/2007 12:32:52 PM | message detail
still don't see why some people expected him to have strength

Cause he's the freaking original Belmont. Simon is so badass, that nobody knows what his real hair color is. He's so badass, that kills monsters with a whip and a potion of water. Simon Belmont is a freaking icon. Anyone who voted for Simon... I SALUTE YOU!!!!
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/17/2007 12:33:28 PM | message detail
Link definitely did better than Cloud in his performance if you ask me. Sure Cloud had Jill and Ocelot, but breaking 70% is still a great feat.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Big Bob | Posted 9/17/2007 12:38:44 PM | message detail
Raiden had BETTER NOT lose this...
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September 29th:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=38262325
Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 12:40:02 PM | message detail
Relative to my expectations, I've got:

Samus > Mega Man > Cloud > Crono > Mario > Link > Sephiroth.

Samus exceeded my expectations. Mega Man through Mario went about as I expected. Link and Sephiroth disappointed me.
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Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly.
Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets.
swirIdude | Posted 9/17/2007 12:42:47 PM | message detail
I call this match in favor of Raiden.
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http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 12:42:53 PM | message detail
Fisher's doing crap and Raiden isn't losing any percentage. Ugh
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/17/2007 12:45:07 PM | message detail
ASSERTION!!!

Raiden is underperforming due to Sam Fisher splitting the Tactical Espionage vote with him.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 12:46:04 PM | message detail
Fisher is impressing me more than I thought with this comeback... but at this rate, he'll come up short I think. Just too slow...
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
NominateSerge | Posted 9/17/2007 12:47:14 PM | message detail
Big Boss through Mario is a solid mid-carder, and The Boss through Vincent is a low mid-carder...

Both of which are flat out untrue. People are blowing that Big Boss performance out of proportion. He is nothing but fodder. He couldn't even get 30% on Auron BEFORE KHII. 35% on pre-KHII Auron is a low midcarder. Under 30% is fodder. And 60% on Celes doesn't strike me as anything above the fodder line. The Boss wouldn't beat Tails one-on-one, for that matter. This format just caters to some characters more than others.

And I think Raiden will hold on just fine by the end. Sam Fisher isn't gaining quickly enough to get the lead before the MGS night vote takes back over. He won't win decisively (maybe not even by more than 1000), but I'm confident Raiden will hold on. There's no telling if the picture is hurting him here or not, and we won't get an idea unless he gets a MGS2 picture next round.

By the way, after reading the MK and SF discussion in the last topic, I have to say that whoever thinks MK Raiden would come anywhere close to Scorpion and Sub-Zero in strength is crazy. And people need to get it out of their minds that Scorpion and Sub-Zero are near equals. Everything indicates otherwise.
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Vote for Serge.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 12:48:04 PM | message detail
He needs like 25 votes per update for 6 hours 'cause then Raiden will probably start putting up more numbers with the night vote.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:48:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is going a bit too slow for Sam to be able to do anything, I think. Raiden's only bleeding about 100 votes an hour. If that even keeps up for the entire day, it still won't be enough.
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Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor.
CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th
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