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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 487

GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 7:57:09 AM | message detail
I really think the pic is hurting Raiden here... it's not as if the name is specific to MGS, and everyone would know him based on that. I can see plenty of people not knowing who the **** that is when they go to vote in the poll. Here's to him getting a MGS2 pic next round (naked mid-cartwheel? Oh yes ! !) I hope he still loses to Zero for my bracket, but performs a lot more respectably than this.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:01:08 AM | message detail
And really, again - I seriously doubt the picture is having an effect here. It's not a coincidence that those who know jack about MGS are the only ones who suggested it before the fact, and those who're saying it now seem to be using it more as an excuse than anything else.

If Raiden got a proper MGS2 picture next round and ended up owning Zero or something (because he totally is !!) that would be one thing, and I'd certainly eat my words then, but put an MGS2 pic here now and I see Raiden doing worse as easily as better.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 8:04:31 AM | message detail
Not really.. I've played every MGS game, and I said this last night, but if you say so!

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mmm feel the vibration baby
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 8:04:49 AM | message detail
Take it from me, not everyone follows new releases, and certainly not all the people who've played MGS2. The picture is making a difference here, though some people are overblowing it.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 8:06:01 AM | message detail
I don't think Raiden would suddenly be at 30% (lolpen), but I do think he'd be doing quite a bit better.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:06:23 AM | message detail
Yeah. Metal Gear Solid characters have never been affected by their pictures in the past guys, what are you thinking?
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:06:24 AM | message detail
Not really.. I've played every MGS game, and I said this last night, but if you say so!

Then I'm sure you won't mind a friendly request for a link
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 8:07:05 AM | message detail
If you're serious about that I'll get it when I get back from class, if not, well I don't like you very much!

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:08:31 AM | message detail
Yeah. Metal Gear Solid characters have never been affected by their pictures in the past guys, what are you thinking?

Snake and his brethren have been stuck with the crappiest of crappy pics on a regular basis and perform just fine with them. If you're going to compare this to a sprite, I'm going to feel pretty justified in belittling that.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:12:00 AM | message detail
They've gotten bad pictures and they always do just fine.... yet all of a sudden they're all exceeding expectations and winning all of their debatable matches.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:13:18 AM | message detail
That aside, as I'm sure it is minimal, my real point is the picture CAN make a difference and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if people didn't recognize that as Raiden from MGS. It isn't like it is an uncommon name after all.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:14:58 AM | message detail
We all know Raiden isn't doing as well as he should because voters think he is Kuja!!!

I know this has been brought up before, but I don't see pictures making as big of a difference in a four-way poll as the traditional polls. If you vote for one character over the three others, odds are that you like that character enough that a picture won't mean anything. I would imagine people who don't vote for sprite-based Snake are the ones who don't care about Snake that much in the first place.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:15:00 AM | message detail
That's because the format favors characters whose fanbases are loyal, and seeing how every piece of evidence we have points to MGS being that (Snake's run in the BR, Ocelot/Jill, The Boss/Tails, Big Boss getting more on Mario/Pac/Wander than he was supposed to get on Mario alone). Raiden isn't usable there, we have no comparison for him. For all we know he could be even weaker outside of this format (I kind of doubt it, but you never know). If we had an earlier read on Raiden of any substance it'd be one thing...
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:16:56 AM | message detail
Honestly, theres all ready been a ton of polls in this contest where I feel no real compelling draw to vote to one character over another. Loyalty holds more water here but the true strength will always really come from those able to draw on the people who are apathetic to the other characters.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:20:31 AM | message detail
Well, if that's the case it doesn't explain why Mr. DBZ isn't well over 50% <___<
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
metoolfan | Posted 9/17/2007 8:22:08 AM | message detail
Old Snake did well. Could Sam not just be doing quite well vs. Raiden?
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*is Xic* ...for 15 days
Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:23:50 AM | message detail
Well, if that's the case it doesn't explain why Mr. DBZ isn't well over 50% <___<

I expect Crono to come from the least played game by far out of all the characters in the NN even if it ranked highly in the spring contest. Thus theres always going to be a larger chunk of people apathetic to him. Against one character it is less likely that the apathy voters will have someone to prefer.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:26:32 AM | message detail
While this format could certainly favor Fisher, the odds of this being a product of his strength are... low. He's ALWAYS been pathetic - even when measured through an overrated Magus/Master Chief. Hence why Raiden was a favorite and many took Simon Belmont here - one we'd never had a read on and the other was 2k2 fodder, but people just don't respect the Splinter Cell.

I like Fisher myself - he's the my favorite out of the pack - but I'd like to see how he'd do in a match with Solid Snake for kicks...
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 9/17/2007 8:35:16 AM | message detail
I guess we'll have to wait until 3 PM to see if something happens, but Fisher definitely has the prerequisite stalls under his belt.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 8:37:35 AM | message detail
Fisher's been stalling all match... (which is odd, coming from a lot of the comments in the previous topic I would have guessed he was well on his way back sooner than not). I'm not convinced he has what it takes, Marcus was well on his way back at this point.

Not that he has to do much against the MGS afterschool vote, but if he lets it get out of hand it'll just turn into another Boss/Tails at the end.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
paraboxx | Posted 9/17/2007 8:40:31 AM | message detail
Take it from me, not everyone follows new releases

Me, for example.
...but all those MGS loyalists are probably better informed.

Crono's doing...kinda bad. Raiden looks like a chump. Not sure what it means for either of them, with this format...but the only one having a good day is Fisher.

...how sad is that....
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/17/2007 8:52:19 AM | message detail
Time | Crono . . | Fisher . | Simon . | Raiden
01:00 | 47.96% | 17.54% | 13.88% | 20.62%
02:00 | 51.38% | 16.45% | 12.61% | 19.57%
03:00 | 49.91% | 17.64% | 13.03% | 19.42%
04:00 | 48.25% | 15.87% | 12.92% | 22.95%
05:00 | 49.13% | 17.31% | 14.03% | 19.53%
06:00 | 46.06% | 16.93% | 12.52% | 24.49%
07:00 | 46.68% | 20.53% | 12.22% | 20.56%
08:00 | 46.39% | 20.82% | 13.06% | 19.74%
09:00 | 47.49% | 19.18% | 13.10% | 20.23%
10:00 | 48.66% | 18.50% | 13.80% | 19.04%
11:00 | 49.06% | 18.41% | 12.60% | 19.94%

Fisher stalled Raiden in the morning, but Raiden managed to maintain 20% so Sam didn't to cut anything. Sam's got a decent shot of doing something once 3:00 hits but he needs Raiden to fall, too. Crono's morning vote doesn't bode well for him in the afterschool period but that should be expected.
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Mustache...and green...
www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 8:55:44 AM | message detail
Marcus only cut around 300 off Kefka's peak during school hours. AFTER school hours he completely dominated.

I'm just waiting till 2-3 PM hits now, that will be the moment of truth.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 9:14:49 AM | message detail
GO SAM GO!!!


KB
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 9:41:10 AM | message detail
KB I think we're the only SC fans here :(
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 9:47:58 AM | message detail
Once again, and bolded so people don't forget it on the next page:

OLD SNAKE IS STILL VERY CLEARLY SNAKE. CYBORG RAIDEN LOOKS NOTHING LIKE MGS2 RAIDEN. THIS WOULD BE LIKE COMPARING SAMUS GETTING THE VARIA SUIT TO ZERO SUIT SAMUS!

TuRtLe
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44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/17/2007 9:50:20 AM | message detail
Surprising to see Crono wasn't quite able to hit 50% last night. Figured he would.

Should be good to see if Fisher has what it takes to comeback here, too.

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 9:51:00 AM | message detail
I agree with BT here. I thought Raiden was weaker than everyone thought but not THIS weak. The pic is definitely hurting him, only people following the MGS4 trailers will recognize him, while Sam has a trademark trifocal goggle pic.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 9:52:27 AM | message detail
Ouch, Sam did awful that update. 73 votes.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/17/2007 10:00:55 AM | message detail
I can recognise old Snake without watching the trailer but there is no way i can recognise that cyborg Raiden without watching the trailer. A good handful of people are just casual gamer and they don't follow new release. There are some characters that go by the name of "Raiden" (MK, Fatal Fury, MGS) so i think the unrecognisable trailer picture might confuse some voters.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 10:01:17 AM | message detail
I really hope none of you are expecting Raiden to have a day vote like Kefka. If that's where you are placing your hopes, prepare for the worst.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 10:03:06 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 10:04:07 AM | message detail
grr typos

it's been said, but I feel *very* confident in Raiden here. Fisher did nothing during the morning vote, Raiden's increasing more and more, and Fisher is hardly Axel. I'd be pretty shocked to see a comeback -- I wouldn't even be amazed if Raiden just kept going like this all the way to the end of the poll.

the MGS4 picture thing.. well, I've commented on it enough by now. I'll quickly admit that I'm not in tune with the MGS fanbase, but it certainly looks like it has the potential to hurt. we'll know more next round, since I'm pretty sure this match is wrapped up.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 10:12:13 AM | message detail
Considering he's going even with Sam Fisher I highly doubt he's a threat to Zero next round. He's not the same Zero we saw in 2k3, but he hasn't fallen THAT far.

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 10:17:39 AM | message detail
Crono... is gaining? What the hell?
GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/17/2007 10:20:24 AM | message detail
CRONOFEAR

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mmm feel the vibration baby
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/17/2007 10:20:39 AM | message detail
This is still the during School period. Magus, Frog and Kefka are still gaining extremely small percentage during this time.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 10:24:14 AM | message detail
Huh. Someone should write to Squaresoft explaining that one of their Noble Niners is going to become mortal soon... then we'll see about that third Chrono game. W00T W00T.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 10:26:36 AM | message detail
Magus actually lost less than 1% with the afterschool vote. Crono's always been better than Magus at the day vote, so don't be surprised if he doesn't collapse this afternoon.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 10:27:27 AM | message detail
that Magus match is a bad comparison. god only knows what happened in that thing.

use Frog's match if you want to be more reliable.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 10:30:07 AM | message detail
Well, Axel and Samus have much better day votes than Crono's current opponents, while Magus's opponents seem closer in that area. And any rallying due to Phoenix/Bomberman being close would only hurt Magus's afterschool vote.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 10:32:27 AM | message detail
that's not the problem.. the problem is that Phoenix Wright ruined any chance of Magus getting a high percentage early on. the Phoenix Wright Power Hour pretty much guarantees that to be the case of any first-hour guys. it's hard to fall when you don't build up that huge cushion.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
jonthomson | Posted 9/17/2007 10:42:28 AM | message detail
People seriously think Sam has a chance of coming back? That's far fetched imo
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Jon Thomson - 44/56, next picks: Crono beats Raiden
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Master Moltar | Posted 9/17/2007 10:44:21 AM | message detail
Nothing is ever far fecthed if you believe.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56)
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 10:44:34 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
NotTerrafire | Posted 9/17/2007 10:45:12 AM | message detail
Oh yeah I agree about Magus. Nobody should take his performance in that match as showing his power, as he was screwed by ridiculous Phoenix rallying and probably even Bomberman rallying (lol). He's not as dead as people are saying.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 10:45:36 AM | message detail
I believe damnit.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 10:47:26 AM | message detail
Biggest Fisher cut in like 4 hours there.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/17/2007 11:03:38 AM | message detail
If Raiden had his MGS2 pic, he would be pushing for 25%
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Feel my truth.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 11:04:51 AM | message detail
If Sam had his DA pic he would be winning for sure.


<sarcasm/>


KB
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