GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 487
| MMXcalibur | Posted 9/16/2007 9:30:57 PM | message detail |
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I NEED SCISSORS! 61! *Creativename's websites* Everything you could ever imagine: http://www.GameFAQsContests.com http://www.sc2k5.com http://www.sc2k4.com Sortable Table for Every Contest Match: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19 *Extrapolated Standings* Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11 Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings: A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left): http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/ *Solarshadow's Sites* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating) http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html *Old Stats topics* Summer 2002 Contest: http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html Summer 2003 Contest: http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note) 2003-2004 Off-Season: http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note) Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL. Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them): http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm *Match Pictures* All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones! http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php *Miscellaneous* Creativename's Page of Links: http://sc2k4.com/links.php UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language): http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/ NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language): http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/ http://thengamer.com/xstats http://thengamer.com/stats A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches: http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm All Time Top 10 Lists: http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007 TRE's poll listing (every poll!): http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html Aprosenf's Poll Script: http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt GameFAQs' Top 100 Games http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10 Manual Poll Updater: http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php --- HOT WOMEN: http://plum.sakura.ne.jp/~alice/gallery/graphic/2006/796hp.jpg http://plum.sakura.ne.jp/~alice/gallery/graphic/2006/844hp.jpg |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:32:14 PM | message detail |
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Crono owning some faces. Take that, Vincent bandwagon! --- Currently Playing: Persona 3 |
| Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/16/2007 9:36:03 PM | message detail |
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I expect Crono to get 50% before I feel comfortable about Vince > C --- Hi |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/16/2007 9:43:17 PM | message detail |
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Too early. etc. etc. --- Finally a damn bracket! |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 10:34:56 PM | message detail |
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Oh hey Tag --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:10 AM | message detail |
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Looks like Sam's dropped off in the past hour. --- Finally a damn bracket! http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:22:41 AM | message detail |
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n00b, that's absolutely nothing new for Crono or CT. Even back in 2k4
he fell off after just two hours against Conker, and Magus does the
same thing. CT is just plain front-loaded, nothing to it. I don't see
how you fail to understand that. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 12:26:31 AM | message detail |
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Back in 2K4 the match started at 3 AM. So after 2 hours would be 5 AM.
Falling off then would be understandable since the night vote is
ending. Although I guess it's plausible that Crono was always like
that, and the late start times just disguised it since the night vote
ended after 2 hours anyway --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| metoolfan | Posted 9/17/2007 12:29:02 AM | message detail |
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Raiden seems safe to me - not quite yet in mathematical terms but he's
building up his lead well enough for me to feel comfortable with him
now. good good <3 MGS4 =) --- *is Xic* ...for 15 days |
| Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/17/2007 12:29:44 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, MGS holds up quite well during the day. --- Eff Dee |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:30:30 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, n00b is right, matches in 2004 started 3 hours later than this year contest. BTW, i think it is fair to say Crono peak percentage will be 49.59% and he will most likely fall by some percentage starting from now. --- Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:42:33 AM | message detail |
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Indeed, the matches started at another time. The pattern is still
similar in that the CT crew starts off strong but they just can't
maintain it. And then they fall apart during the day. If you look at Crono's match against Vincent he loses pretty much all day long, and against Mario he fell off after only 20 minutes. He just doesn't hold himself up well. It is a bit surprising he made such late gains, but again there's no telling what will happen in a 4-way poll to throw trends off. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 12:44:35 AM | message detail |
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Yeah. I just never made the connection before that the night vote
wasn't CT's strongest time since it just so happens that before the
time was switched, their strongest time and the night vote took place
at the same time making it impossible to tell. AAAANNNNNYYYYYWWWAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYY Gee Raiden, if you had done this from the start people wouldn't have been worrying. --- This story is not an end yet. Because only you are in the infinity loop. |
| superCP | Posted 9/17/2007 12:50:55 AM | message detail |
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crono is the first N9'er to have under 50%. --- 'The truth is...You just really stink.' -Riku, from Kingdom Hearts |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:51:15 AM | message detail |
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Well, CT does do alright in the night. It just occurs to me that it's
considered a night-vote earner because of how badly it sucks during the
day. I don't recall CT characters ever gaining ground during daylight
hours. Though I must say, it'd be interesting to see what would happen
if the poll began at noon. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| Xuxon | Posted 9/17/2007 12:54:54 AM | message detail |
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Crono beat Zidane with the day vote. I'm not sure if there are any other examples. --- FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan) |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:57:02 AM | message detail |
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That Alucard fourpack is going to be fun. I could see Ness getting
smashed during the night and making an epic comeback in the day. --- Currently Playing: Persona 3 |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:58:23 AM | message detail |
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Sonic and Snake haven't been up yet, and of the N9ers I'd say Crono
would have the hardest time anyway. MM has always been a fodder killer
(and still just barely managed 50%), Clinkeroth are well beyond the
competitions, and Mario's match probably saw Pac-man getting SFF'd
alongside the already terrible Wander. Samus is the only other one I'd even have expected to be able to slip under 50%, and she had no one at all to drain from her. Add that to the fact that she's naturally quite a bit stronger than Crono and it makes sense. Snake is in a pretty good possition to break 50% without much trouble, but Sonic looks like he could slip under as well. But, let's be honest, we already knew coming into this that Crono was the weakest of the N9. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:59:02 AM | message detail |
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"Crono beat Zidane with the day vote." That match never happened. Never. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/17/2007 1:04:56 AM | message detail |
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Steroid Snake is known to be the "true fodder killer" (Tanner), I think Steroid Snake will score at least 55% in his match. While as for Sonic, i think he will score lower percentage than Crono (around 45%). It is not because Sonic is weaker than Crono, it is just that Sonic is facing a much stronger competition. (Subby is the strongest MK member and POP is a OK midcarder) --- Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid |
| Lopen | Posted 9/17/2007 1:07:43 AM | message detail |
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I blame you for everyone saying Raiden is disappointing, HM! I blame you! Egh... well, he's disappointing me, but that's because I wanted to see him around 30% here. 20% is not a horrible percentage, and while weak, Sam Fisher is very high end fodder, borderline low midcarder. I'd take him over the Boss or Big Boss, as painful as it is for me to say that. --- Raiden, Kirby, my stat analyses and my own face all suck horribly. Note to everyone on Board 8: XIII_rocks never loses sig bets. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/17/2007 1:17:33 AM | message detail |
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Sonic won't break 50% in his match. He's up against a strong midcarder
with a dedicated fanbase (Sub-Zero) and two lower midcarders (Prince of
Persia and Viewtiful Joe). Samus barely broke 50% and she was up
against Frog, Axel, and Kerrigan. Add that Sonic is naturally weaker than Samus, and yeah, Sonic won't look great in his match. --- Currently Playing: Persona 3 |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 2:26:35 AM | message detail |
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I agree that Sonic is facing somewhat stiffer competition. That is
indeed why I pointed out why he is likely to fail to achieve 50% while
Snake likely will not. As for Raiden's strength, I'd have to say that it's not really necessary to even question it. He's obviously above the fodder line, and I'm not sure how anyone could have expected too much more from him. Until MGS4 hits, it shouldn't even be expected of him that he could dispose of Ocelot. At least not without trouble. But even then, that doesn't make him weak, it just says that he isn't a powerhouse in his own right. Yet. --- You do not have the right to never be offended. |
| swirIdude | Posted 9/17/2007 4:46:26 AM | message detail |
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In this match, popularity is inversely proportional to the number of letters in your name! (Last names included) --- http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/2931/ivotededgeworthck7.png |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 4:49:12 AM | message detail |
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Aw yeah Fisher 19 vote cut. --- SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher |
| DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/17/2007 5:06:13 AM | message detail |
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If you compare this to Marcus, Marcus was doing this bad at this time
as well. If Sam gets that Xbox vote starting around noon.. he can do
this easily. --- SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher |
| Tediz247 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:21:46 AM | message detail |
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What in the hell happened to Crono's night vote? I expected to see him
over 50% here, especially since his competition is probably weaker than
Mega Man's. --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end. ZSB [aX] |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:24:13 AM | message detail |
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Crono peaked before 3 AM, as he usually does. But looking at the Magus
match, Magus had 31.29% at this time and ended with 30.87%, so Crono
will probably end close to his current percentage. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way) Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 5:26:04 AM | message detail |
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Raiden has gained only 27 votes on Sam Fisher in the past 2 and a half
hours. I think we're looking at a comeback this afternoon. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way) Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono |
| Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/17/2007 6:42:20 AM | message detail |
| oh hell yes Sam Fisher tag! its the PT pic! KB |
| Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/17/2007 6:46:21 AM | message detail |
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Fisher's been stalling for four hours now. It isn't looking good for Raiden. --- He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me. Sound advice. |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/17/2007 6:51:06 AM | message detail |
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Sam Fisher is a low midcarder. --- Feel my truth. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/17/2007 6:55:22 AM | message detail |
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It's not like Sam Fisher is a terrible character, he was able to get 34% on a super strong Magus. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 15: Crono > Raiden Points: 42/56 |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/17/2007 7:00:22 AM | message detail |
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Sam's only bad performance was against Samus in 2k4. His other matches
were OK... But most people don't want to forget this match --- Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Crono 43.22% - Raiden 22.66% - Sam 17.96% - Simon 16.16% ~ Status: OK |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:02:52 AM | message detail |
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Measuring Sam Fisher 2K5 through MC2K5 = 2K6: 19.05%. That's the most
reliable value for Sam we have, anyway... though it's a little old.
Really, any value you get of Sam that's above the fodder line is
through a character who was clearly overrated. Anyway, Raiden looking like a low mid-carder in this format still seems disappointing if you expected him to be stronger than The Boss or Big Boss... Big Boss through Mario is a solid mid-carder, and The Boss through Vincent is a low mid-carder... --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 7:17:47 AM | message detail |
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Hmm. While I hate to put a damper on the "OMG Sam cuts 3!" babble that
was going on last night, Sam barely did anything with the morning vote.
He'd need a pretty sick afternoon vote to come back, because he barely
stalled Raiden in the morning. He did better during a certain night
hour, actually... --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:22:38 AM | message detail |
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I hate to double-post, but I have to comment on Mega Man. Let's compare Mega Man with Samus and Crono. Arthas Menethil 15.67% Diablo 15.42% KOS-MOS 18.43% Mega Man 50.49% Axel 18.55% Frog 18.64% Samus Aran 51.75% Sarah Kerrigan 11.06% Mega Man fell about 1% shy of Samus, who was fresh off MP:C. He beat three guys arguably above the fodder line... arguably, Samus' four-pack is slightly weaker, as all the non-winners are arguably of comparable strength except for Kerrigan. Axel and Frog may have some SFF, sure, but same with Arthas and Diablo. Today, Crono will most likely fail to hit 48% with a group arguably weaker than Mega Man's, and probably weaker than Samus', as well. Also, Mario had MUCH weaker competition than anyone else (besides Link), yet he only managed 58%. Anyway, I just have to say this: kudos to Mega Man. Either he's bounced back from his bad 2K6 year (and then some?), or he's just dominant in a four-way poll. Or maybe Diablo/Arthas SFF was that bad, and KOS-MOS is shabby in this setting (I hope not). --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| The Mana Sword | Posted 9/17/2007 7:22:40 AM | message detail |
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Raiden is clearly saving his energy for next round. Clearly. ... Gotta admit, I was expecting better things from him. Maybe the picture is working against him? Who knows. Crono, on the other hand, is far surpassing my expectations. I thought he'd struggle with 45% here...but pushing 50%? Good show. --- Kleenex - Not on his computer. |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:23:43 AM | message detail |
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Well Marcus didn't do much in the morning against Kefka either. And
Master Chief didn't begin coming back until either Frog or DK until the
afternoon. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way) Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono |
| Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/17/2007 7:30:08 AM | message detail |
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And Sam's still stalling. He could do something here. --- He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me. Sound advice. |
| BDawg | Posted 9/17/2007 7:33:22 AM | message detail |
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Well, I don't expect Raiden to pull a "Kefka" but I can definitely see
this becoming one of those long and painful comebacks a la
Bomberman/Phoenix. --- Should I start running now? |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 7:33:25 AM | message detail |
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Anyway, I just have to say this: kudos to Mega Man. Either he's
bounced back from his bad 2K6 year (and then some?), or he's just
dominant in a four-way poll. Or maybe Diablo/Arthas SFF was that bad,
and KOS-MOS is shabby in this setting (I hope not). Or *gasp* Mega Man didn't drop at all last year, as evidenced by everything And Chich, get the hell off my Cammy bandwagon. Only room for one on this train. TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Haste_2 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:34:57 AM | message detail |
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Ha, I knew you'd bring that up. There wasn't enough data to really conclude Mega Man dropped in 2K6 to make you feel better. --- "Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/17/2007 7:36:28 AM | message detail |
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Assuming Bowser is there, does Mega Man have a decent shot at placing second in MM/Samus/Cloud/Bowser? TuRtLe ~~~ 44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| ESY16 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:39:28 AM | message detail |
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Assuming Bowser is there, does Mega Man have a decent shot at placing second in MM/Samus/Cloud/Bowser? He has a shot, but I don't think it will happen due to too much overlap between the MM and Nintendo fanbases. --- Member of Woot or Shirt.Woot? Vote for my shirt! http://shirt.woot.com/Derby/EntryWindow.aspx?id=2298 |
| Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/17/2007 7:43:10 AM | message detail |
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Anyway, I just have to say this: kudos to Mega Man. Either he's
bounced back from his bad 2K6 year (and then some?), or he's just
dominant in a four-way poll. Or maybe Diablo/Arthas SFF was that bad,
and KOS-MOS is shabby in this setting (I hope not). Mega Man Star Force games were pretty popular at the start of this contest I think. One (or two) of the games was in the Top 10 FAQ Pages for a while and also in the Top 10 Wanted FAQs before that, so probably many casuals came to GameFAQs just looking for these FAQs/cheats, but they also saw the poll and so they voted for Mega Man... and I heard the rally in WoW forum turned into supporting Mega Man instead of the Blizzard's characters... We will just have to wait and see whether Mega Man will still perform well in Round 2. --- Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination. The cream of Chocobo fanboyism. |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:44:49 AM | message detail |
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Assuming Mega Man didn't drop last year, Mega Man stands a good chance
there. The presence of Bowser will definitely hurt both MM and Samus,
however to be fair, it will hurt Samus more. I still think Samus was
overated due to (rSFF or SFF Snake), if not how can Zelda do so badly
in that Vincent match. Unless you really think Zelda rSFF Samus by 6-8%
in that match. Cloud > MM > Samus is a more likely choice to me right now. Samus didn't really do as well as MM anyway.(Her 4 pack was weaker) --- Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/17/2007 7:47:27 AM | message detail |
| we can't really assume which fourpack is weaker or stronger here.IMO,Crono,mega and samus all had very similar foupacks in terms of strenght.and we still have no idea just how strong Raiden is yet.would he beat Kos Mos? maybe. |
| Samurai7 | Posted 9/17/2007 7:48:17 AM | message detail |
| We really don't have good reads to judge what is
weaker or not in a 4 pack like this. Nor do we know how easily any of
the NN will lose votes to other characters when its set up like this.
Drawing conclusions off of first round matches that are essentially
blow outs isn't going to be accurate. --- Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/17/2007 7:53:35 AM | message detail |
| We can *easily* assume Mega Man's fourpack was
stronger if you think the individual strengths of the characters matter
at ALL. Either Fisher made some sort of a jump with Double Agent
(...*very* doubtful) and Simon has made some waves despite his lack of
games being MORE prominent, or these three would get smashed by Mega's
pack. Now, that's partially "forgivable" in that Mega's pack had two characters from the same fanbase which weakens it on the whole, but still pretty bad for Crono. Although... people seem to be trying to make completely baseless conclusions AGAIN based on these four-way matches. Somehow I expected better from the less delusional among you. --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
