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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 486

transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:55:55 PM | message detail
SF characters are boring. Ken, Chun, Bison.. all around the fodder line. those other guys are going to do about the same, and that's a high-end estimate for them. yeah, it's better than freaking Jade Curtiss, but it's not like it's a very exciting or sexy addition to our contest.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/16/2007 9:56:31 PM | message detail
Agree completely with HM there.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 9:56:59 PM | message detail
There should have been an all-SF or all-Pokemon match somewhere in this contest.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:57:08 PM | message detail
I think it is. I guarantee you that people will mark out upon seeing those guys in the bracket.
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BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:57:50 PM | message detail
It's kind of ironic that a guy with night vision goggles is gonna depend on a day vote to make this interesting.
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ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 9:57:52 PM | message detail
And yeah, unless this format really cripples Crono (can't see why it would since it's comparable to lowering votals) Vincent still has about 2% to make up on him from last year.

You're a bit off on the percentages there. Crono/Vincent is expected to be a 51/49 kind of affair last year. The littlest thing can put that into Vincent's favor -- different days could produce different results with something like that. Not to say that it's guaranteed or anything, but there doesn't need to be a "crippling" here.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:58:16 PM | message detail
It may not happen, but even if it doesn't, that's going to be a close fight for third.

Fixed that for ya

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/16/2007 9:58:54 PM | message detail
I really REALLY wish I would have had Liquid Snake > Alucard in Round 1 instead of Alucard > Zidane. Hell, Liquid Snake might just sneak through to Round 3 if this MGS love continues.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/16/2007 9:59:10 PM | message detail
Meh, the only reason they've been 'boring' is because except for Bison & Ryu, none of them have really been put in any truly debatable matches.
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Current Points: 46
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/16/2007 9:59:41 PM | message detail
If Akuma impresses in his match I'd rather get him in for a normal contest than bothering with Guile or Blanka.
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Xuxon | Posted 9/16/2007 10:00:24 PM | message detail
BT, if Zero is somehow in contention for second there, and then somehow does get second, it's not like you'd say Vincent and Crono weren't competing for second, because they wouldn't be far behind at all.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:01:11 PM | message detail
Nice update for both Crono and Sam there.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 10:01:16 PM | message detail
so

Crono finishes this above or below 50%?
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:02:17 PM | message detail
I'd say 48% is a pretty good estimate of where he'll finish.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/16/2007 10:02:37 PM | message detail
Crono gobbled up everyones percent there.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:02:37 PM | message detail
Meh, the only reason they've been 'boring' is because except for Bison & Ryu, none of them have really been put in any truly debatable matches.

Agreed there. Ken was against a Noble 9er, and Chun-Li got put against Bowser the year he had Noble 9 strength. Ryu is always respectable, and remember how fun Bison was in the Villains Contest? The high-time Bison picture and whole fedor ordeal were instant classics, and he topped it off with a fine match against Diablo. I'm hoping against hope that Akuma turns heads in his match. *please please please*
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 10:02:47 PM | message detail
On top of what HM said, Crono shares with all three characters -- Link and Zero are big fan-favorites that made/improved their names on the SNES like Crono, while Vincent is another fan-favorite from FF7, the one RPG that trumps CT here.

Crono's getting tugged, is all. With Vincent already being rather close to being on-par with Crono and that 24% of the site considered FF7 to be the best game ever less than two years ago...it's a good upset to take in this format.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:03:53 PM | message detail
Let's not forget that Vincent has the fewest ties to Link.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 10:06:10 PM | message detail
nu uh vincent and (young) link are both secret characters sffed
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__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 10:07:00 PM | message detail
another almost 52% update fo crono
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:07:00 PM | message detail
*burns bracket*
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ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 10:07:04 PM | message detail
Yeah. Little things like that are worth considering there. It's nothing significant, but it's one of the many possibilities that could end up sapping Crono's strength even a bit to give Vincent the edge there.

There's no way to tell with this, though. I'm expecting Vincent to win that based off of his own strength, and less to do with Crono being handicapped because of other characters. But whatever the reason, it's really hard not to consider Vincent just as likely, if not moreso, to come out of that.

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Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:07:37 PM | message detail
Link kills everyone
Crono and Vincent square off
We laugh at Turtle
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:07:42 PM | message detail
Hopefully this is a sign of the deep night vote starting to sink in.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:09:01 PM | message detail
Hmm.....at the 1 hour mark, Magus had 31.64% and he finished with 30.87%, against Phoenix Wright, Bomberman, and Crash Bandicoot. Frog had 22.70% and finished with 18.64% against Kerrigan, Samus, and Axel. Crono has always had a substantially better day vote than those two, and every Noble Niner thus far has gone up steadily during the day. So I'd guess he finishes with 49% or so.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 10:10:48 PM | message detail
Raiden really sucks
Zero will kick ass next match
lol crono/vincent

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 10:10:57 PM | message detail
Crono not losing a few percent with the day vote? That's crazy talk
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__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 10:11:05 PM | message detail
i think crono will surpass 50% in the night though.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:11:15 PM | message detail
zero beat crono?
he got whipped by luigi
lol bt
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:11:36 PM | message detail
Oh yes. Fisher's gains have all but plummeted now. Raiden and Belmont remain at the same level, so most of the %s are going to Crono for the night.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:13:06 PM | message detail
lol crono/vincent

How about lol Zero > Crono/Vincent
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:13:37 PM | message detail
link is in the poll
mega man got SFF'd
zero has no chance
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/16/2007 10:13:38 PM | message detail
Crono starts winning updates right at the turn of the hour. It really is an hour.
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creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 10:17:32 PM | message detail
Crono is looking fine against Vincent for now, but I don't think you can have too much confidence in Crono there. There's gotta be doubt.


HM
I imagine in the case of people like Blanka, they're just forgotten by the people nominating. With characters like Red XIII -- and most of FF7's cast -- there's the whole cap bit holding them back. Tifa wasn't even able to sneak into here.

Indeed, Blanka is largely forgotten. Though he'd probably have decent strength if he was in - not close to where he used to be, though. I remember back in the day, he was actually the favorite character of pretty much everyone I knew. Thinking about it, in an actual contest like this, Ryu would have been the strongest back then, but Blanka wouldn't have been all that far behind. He'd be a lot weaker than Ryu now though.


YoAriel
Blanka? We still haven't even seen Guile. =(

Forgot about Guile, yeah he'd be stronger than Blanka.


MegatokyEd
The only SF character that was worth getting in got this year. I can't see Guile or anyone else that hasn't gotten in yet being stronger than Akuma. I'd rather nominate Yoshimitsu.

I utterly disagree with you. Guile is way more of an icon than Akuma. I would not expect Akuma to be as strong as Guile at all.

I'd also expect Vega to be stronger than Akuma, though I'm more uncertain about that.
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creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 10:18:12 PM | message detail
Actually on thinking about it, I'm kinda surprised that Chun-Li made these over Guile and Vega.
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ejm5446 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:20:10 PM | message detail
We've already seen Ryu, Ken, Chun Li and M.Bison in these contests. Guile seems like the most obvious guy left out, but I would go with Dhalsim or Sagat as they're cooler IMO.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:23:26 PM | message detail
Well, Sagat is my favourite SF character and i hope he can make it into the contest, but then maybe not, Sagat will get slaughtered by the likes of Tingle or Ada Wong.
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creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 10:23:39 PM | message detail
Dhalsim would be one of the weaker SF characters...Sagat I'm unsure about.
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ejm5446 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:24:24 PM | message detail
I would say that Balrog, Zangief and E.Honda would do the worst among the original 12.
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 10:24:43 PM | message detail
Well, Sagat is my favourite SF character and i hope he can make it into the contest, but then maybe not, Sagat will get slaughtered by the likes of Tingle or Ada Wong.

I said I'm unsure about him, but I know he'd beat those two without difficulty :)
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:25:30 PM | message detail
Of the 14 first place characters so far, only 5 ended at a lower percentage than they were at after one hour:

Yoshi
Megaman
Scorpion
Ryu
Magus

Of these 5, only Yoshi ended more than 1% below their percentage at the one hour mark! The evidence isn't conclusive, but I'd hazard a guess that voters well-informed about the contest in the first hour will often not vote for a character they know will take first. Looking at those 5 winners who did manage to lose percentage- Ryu and Scorpion were not favored to win, and Magus had a very low site-wide prediction percentage. Yoshi was also the underdog to Knuckles for first site-wide.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
ejm5446 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:30:47 PM | message detail
03/24/02

Who is your favorite of the original twelve Street Fighter II characters?

Balrog (J:M.Bison) 1.1% 403
Blanka 7.06% 2580
Chun-Li 12.46% 4554
Dhalsim 2.92% 1068
E.Honda 2.12% 776
Guile 8.33% 3046
Ken 15.44% 5646
M.Bison (J:Vega) 2.92% 1068
Ryu 35.35% 12926
Sagat 3.31% 1210
Vega (J:Balrog) 6.88% 2516
Zangief 2.1% 768

TOTAL VOTES 36561
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 10:31:35 PM | message detail
Don't looknow but Raiden just dropped like a rock. He tied Sam that update.
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Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 10:32:11 PM | message detail
"Seriously, Guile or Wii Sports Matt? Guile or Frank West? Heck, Guile or Vaan?"

Of all the SF characters I cannot hate one more than Guile. I love me some SF, but I would certainly take all of those characters over Guile in a 1on1 for my vote at the least.

Really, fighting games characters are the most subject to hardcore fanbases, excepting Ryu (who is the posterboy for the entire genre). Being that they are all ensemble casts, it's hard to say someone is going to do better than someone else because they are the "main" character. Some are more prominent, sure, and that prominence will show to some degree in the votes. But, really, a character not clearly set up to represent a game won't do significantly better than other members of that cast. Guile is NOT important enough to SF to do even as well as the others that have made it so far, despite what American made cartoons and movies may tell you. Hell, he's not even prominent enough to get nominated into the contest...
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:32:35 PM | message detail
LOL at Balrog in that poll, scoring only 1.1%.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/16/2007 10:33:26 PM | message detail
Fisher's been stalling him for a small while now, but yeah. Raiden's dropping off.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/16/2007 10:33:59 PM | message detail
They should totally redo that poll sometime next year, preferably around when they release the SF2 Remix on the Xbox/PS3 Arcades
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Current Points: 46
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 10:34:01 PM | message detail
"Seriously, Guile or Wii Sports Matt? Guile or Frank West? Heck, Guile or Vaan?"

Who said this? Guile would slaughter these guys, no question at all.
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 10:38:11 PM | message detail
the day Chun Li loses to Vega is the day my jaw drops to the floor.

Guile... I'd give him a chance there, but he's kind of like the Liu Kang of Street Fighter - yeah, he's the "main character" to some, but the rest of the cast is a good step and a half up. Guile loses to Ken and probably to Chun Li. maybe to Bison, too.
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TimJab | Posted 9/16/2007 10:39:31 PM | message detail
guile only loses to bison because his shirt does cpr
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