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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 486

Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/16/2007 9:35:46 PM | message detail
Yay, Raiden is looking great now <3
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:36:17 PM | message detail
Why is everyone reacting so strongly? It looks like Raiden will win handily, and I don't recall people making Raiden out to be a powerhouse... and I don't see why he would be.

Because Sam Fisher did well with the board vote. That's epic.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:36:19 PM | message detail
And yeah nothing new here. This happens every year during one of Crono's matches.

OMG CRONO IS SO WEAK NOW LOOK AT HOW MUCH HES DROPED!!!!!!111111111
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 9:36:28 PM | message detail
I think Vincent has a shot at second with no one there to split his fan base, but thats totally on conditions that have aren't founded purely on his strength and the noble niner's fall from power. No way would I really think Vincent was stronger than Mega Man. Just like theres no way you can tell me Snake is greater than Sephiroth. The NN can't even be threatened this contest.

Indeed. But, this Noble Nine is a reputation thing anyway, so if people think it's broken, it's broken.

Most likely though, I think even if Vincent beats Crono, people will stick with the old Noble Nine just due to inertia. People don't like change.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 9:36:29 PM | message detail
Hmm, I'm really interested to see what happens once the day rolls around.

I must say though, I did wish Crono was doing a bit worse and Raiden a bit better.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56)
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 9:38:22 PM | message detail
I'd expect 45-47% out of Vincent here, especially after yesterday.
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BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:38:26 PM | message detail
It's just no good if Vincent beats Crono, cause Link will be standing around watching. And we all know when Link stands around, he stands around.
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Should I start running now?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:39:04 PM | message detail
I think as long as Crono stays above 45% here, I'll feel comfortable in him staying ahead of Vincent.

Just to get any idea of what people think, what percent does Zero need to get next round for you guys to consider him a threat in round 3?

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:39:38 PM | message detail
Just to get any idea of what people think, what percent does Zero need to get next round for you guys to consider him a threat in round 3?

A lot.
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Currently Playing: Persona 3
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:39:51 PM | message detail
200
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:10 PM | message detail
70%
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:31 PM | message detail
Just to get any idea of what people think, what percent does Zero need to get next round for you guys to consider him a threat in round 3?

60+%. With Link in round 3 just looking a bit stronger than Crono won't be enough.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:47 PM | message detail
Defeated (12) Simon Belmont, 49283 [76.78%] - 14906 [23.22%]
Defeated (13) Tom Nook, 88469 [85.81%] - 14631 [14.19%]
Defeated (14) Conker, 62375 [77.99%] - 17605 [22.01%]
Defeated (7) Zidane, 74580 [76.72%] - 22636 [23.28%]
Defeated (8) Captain Falcon, 84090 [74.16%] - 29306 [25.84%]

In which of these first round matches did Crono actually draw criticism? Heck, I remember him being praised after slapping Falcon around last year. None of these look especially bad to me.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:52 PM | message detail
Just to get any idea of what people think, what percent does Zero need to get next round for you guys to consider him a threat in round 3?

To be fair, i will say around 45%.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:59 PM | message detail
Just to get any idea of what people think, what percent does Zero need to get next round for you guys to consider him a threat in round 3?

Ima Zero Fanboy, so Technically 0% >_>
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Hi
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 9:41:14 PM | message detail
I agree that, in terms of order, there is most certainly a correlation in most matches. In terms of their actual performance, though, it's less valuable of a recource than 2k2 numbers.

Eh, it depends.

Oh, and no way MK Raiden is stronger than MGS Raiden. MK Raiden wouldn't do nearly as well as the two ninja from the same series while Raiden could conceivably come pretty darn close to Scorpion or even Subby.

I think the Mortal Kombat badasses (also including Johnny Cage) would actually all be pretty bunched together. I can't see MK Raiden being much weaker than Scorpion or Sub-Zero, so I completely disagree with you there.

And, may I inquire, who is to say there is no overlapping of fanbases between MGS and SC?

I doubt too many would think it was anything of significance. More overlap between those two than them with Chrono Trigger, sure, but still not that much.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 9:41:51 PM | message detail
I've got Vincent > Crono, and if my pick pans out then I'm still not going to consider the N9 officially broken...but that's going to stick out for a long long time.
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Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:41:56 PM | message detail
In which of these first round matches did Crono actually draw criticism? Heck, I remember him being praised after slapping Falcon around last year. None of these look especially bad to me.

I said early, not round once. And I only remember it because I say this every year when people are complaining about a Crono performance and they always say the same thing >.>
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:43:02 PM | message detail
Well, I still remember his match with MC in 2k5 had everyone saying he'd lose....then he made the finals...


...That's just the way he rolls!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 9:43:38 PM | message detail
Speaking of Raiden and Johnny Cage, it's amazing how many notable characters have still never made a contest, even with this fodder-filled 128 bracket.

You also have Red XIII, Robo, etc., and guys like Blanka (pretty much the whole SF2 cast would probably be above fodder level, for that matter).
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 9:43:53 PM | message detail
From: creativename
I agree that, in terms of order, there is most certainly a correlation in most matches. In terms of their actual performance, though, it's less valuable of a recource than 2k2 numbers.

Eh, it depends.

Oh, and no way MK Raiden is stronger than MGS Raiden. MK Raiden wouldn't do nearly as well as the two ninja from the same series while Raiden could conceivably come pretty darn close to Scorpion or even Subby.

I think the Mortal Kombat badasses (also including Johnny Cage) would actually all be pretty bunched together. I can't see MK Raiden being much weaker than Scorpion or Sub-Zero, so I completely disagree with you there.


I think Subby and Scorpy would have a way stronger "badass" vote than Raiden.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:44:05 PM | message detail
Ah, ok, so mid-contest matches count. I believe he's had two that were criticized: Chief in 2005 and Auron last year.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 9:44:48 PM | message detail
I dunno if the whole SF2 cast is above fodder level... I wouldn't put Dhalism over it or say.. E.Honda.
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Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails
Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52
Haste_2 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:45:15 PM | message detail
I'll say Zero will need 50+% to be a threat to Vincent/Crono. If hope Zero's somehow back up to '03/04 levels, and that he flexes his muscles in the 4-way format... (Mega Man didn't look too shabby, actually... Samus did only 1% better against competition arguably of the same level) I think he'll get closer to 40%, though.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 9:45:36 PM | message detail
Say what you will about Crono naysayers, but his bad performances came back to bite him in the ass last year...
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:45:45 PM | message detail
Damnit Raden stop bleeding %.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:45:45 PM | message detail
Cammy would be above Chunner's level

BOOK IT!

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:46:37 PM | message detail
Guys, I was talking about his round 2 match with Crono and Raiden.

Tomorrow he should be able to get about 40-45% pretty easily.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:46:38 PM | message detail
Sam is stalling Raiden now.....
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 9:47:18 PM | message detail
You also have Red XIII, Robo, etc., and guys like Blanka (pretty much the whole SF2 cast would probably be above fodder level, for that matter).

I imagine in the case of people like Blanka, they're just forgotten by the people nominating. With characters like Red XIII -- and most of FF7's cast -- there's the whole cap bit holding them back. Tifa wasn't even able to sneak into here.

But yeah, there's probably a number of characters who are above the fodder level that haven't made it in yet.

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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:47:27 PM | message detail
Raiden better hope to build a lead at night...or he's dooooooomed!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:47:39 PM | message detail
If you throw in every fighting game character known to man you might as well throw in half the Pokemon, I'm sure plenty of them would score as high or higher than Pikachu. Not that I'm condoning that.
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Should I start running now?
Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:48:02 PM | message detail
Oh, next round? 35-40%.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 9:48:14 PM | message detail
Knowing how erractic updates are, Raiden will jump out and snag 50 more for his lead next update.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:48:18 PM | message detail
I still say Protoman needs to get into the contest again. If this loser Raiden got a second chance, why not Blues?

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:48:18 PM | message detail
and guys like Blanka

Blanka? We still haven't even seen Guile. =(

I know GameFAQs isn't really the place to go for fighting game fans, but come on, people! It's been over five years; we need to start getting some of these guys in the contest! Since this 128-entrant contest has gotten many of the Rally Tournament guys (Nightmare, Mewtwo) into the contest, I expect next year's edition to be dominated by some mid-90's fighting characters.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 9:48:35 PM | message detail
Say what you will about Crono naysayers, but his bad performances came back to bite him in the ass last year...

Yeah yeah, he lost to Sonic, Knux beat Magus, big friggin whoop.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 9:49:00 PM | message detail
and all those characters will be nothing but high end fodder or barely over the fodder line.
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Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails
Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 9:49:13 PM | message detail
All I want in the next character contest is mother ****ing Diddy Kong

and Tron and Pious for good fodder slots
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:49:36 PM | message detail
here's the thing about Crono's matches: nobody criticizes them because he starts off so strong. go look at that morning vote vs. Bowser. he ended up hitting expectations, but Bowser looked a lot weaker last year. he started out looking awesome vs. CF, but again, fell to expectations. in the Auron match, he flat out bombed in the day.

THAT was what people were scared about with Crono. after four hours, his voters vanished. this was the guy who, if I recall correctly, never lost a 15 minute update to Mario.
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Eggplant Lord | Posted 9/16/2007 9:49:54 PM | message detail
It's very difficult for me to provide a factual basis for this, but I think the hype around Vincent isn't well-founded. All the matches except Kefka/Fenix had clear first place winners, and even Kefka/Fenix wasn't all that close in the end.

Vincent beating Zelda by a great margin, to me, was expected. If you had to choose Vincent or Zelda to be the undisputed winner, Vincent is the clear choice -- he has the cool factor. That seems to be playing a large role this time around.

With Vincent/Crono, I expect many more voters to stick with Crono than with Zelda. I don't know, but I still think Crono > Vincent is looking fine. It will be close since they are fighting for second rather than first... but then again maybe I just need the right match to convince me that running away with first place actually does mean something -- that a close fight for first can exist.

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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/16/2007 9:50:42 PM | message detail
The only SF character that was worth getting in got this year. I can't see Guile or anyone else that hasn't gotten in yet being stronger than Akuma. I'd rather nominate Yoshimitsu.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:51:40 PM | message detail
Vincent > Zelda by 10% was no surprise at all. Seriously. Zelda is not that strong. She was always pretty far behind Ganondorf in my book.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:52:17 PM | message detail
moar like fighting for third

And yeah, unless this format really cripples Crono (can't see why it would since it's comparable to lowering votals) Vincent still has about 2% to make up on him from last year. Still, they're close enough that FF7 might edge out CT with the Square SFF enough to give Vincent the upper hand.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Xuxon | Posted 9/16/2007 9:52:32 PM | message detail
If Zero gets at least 42% I'd still consider him an unlikely possibility. It'd take around 46% for me to be actually be worried.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:53:16 PM | message detail
I still have no clue who Akuma is. I don't remember ever seeing him when I played SF back in the 90's.

Cammy FTW though

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Who Cares? | Posted 9/16/2007 9:53:17 PM | message detail
I know GameFAQs isn't really the place to go for fighting game fans, but come on, people! It's been over five years; we need to start getting some of these guys in the contest! Since this 128-entrant contest has gotten many of the Rally Tournament guys (Nightmare, Mewtwo) into the contest, I expect next year's edition to be dominated by some mid-90's fighting characters.

THANK YOU! Enough of these Tales, pre-FF7, & cult RPG characters. Give us Guile, Vega, & put Ken, Bison, & Chun back in the main bracket!
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Current Points: 46
Maximum Possible Points: 758/768
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:55:00 PM | message detail
The only SF character that was worth getting in got this year. I can't see Guile or anyone else that hasn't gotten in yet being stronger than Akuma. I'd rather nominate Yoshimitsu.

Guile may not have decent strength, but there are certainly people in this bracket he'd mop the floor with. He 100% would deserve a shot in another 128-entrant bracket. Even in a standard 64-entrant field, fodder is always needed, so I say get someone who at least won't be complete fodder. Also, most people here have a connection and feeling of nostalgia with guys like Guile. Seriously, Guile or Wii Sports Matt? Guile or Frank West? Heck, Guile or Vaan?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 9:55:25 PM | message detail
It's very difficult for me to provide a factual basis for this, but I think the hype around Vincent isn't well-founded.

Eh, I don't think so. Vincent would be able to go 50/50 with Crono one-on-one; it's not stretching anything to assume he can beat out Crono in this format, because he's even more likely to excel here as opposed to a normal environment. When they're that close in strength already, the slightest little thing could end up swaying it. If Vincent's better in this format than Crono, that could tip the balance. If Link ends up taking away a smidgeon of Crono's votes for whatever reason, Vincent's looking good.

There are little questions and scenarios like that that play in favor of Vincent. I don't think it has much to do with his performance yesterday -- although it's certainly not making anyone cast doubt on him. Nothing's a guarantee, but the hype surrounding Vincent, especially after how close they were in last year's stats, along with some poor performances from other CT characters, make that a pretty ideal case for an upset.

It may not happen, but even if it doesn't, that's going to be a close fight for second.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:55:41 PM | message detail
SONIC BOOST!

TuRtLe
~~~
44/56 in the contest. Next pick: Crono > Raiden
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
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