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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 486

Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 9:22:43 PM | message detail
Uh, you can't exactly compare four-way matches to each other like that... The Boss wouldn't beat Tails straight up.

Not that it excuses Raiden's performance here (STILL MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HANDLE ZEROWNED)
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:23:10 PM | message detail
I have to admit, I don't really understand why people claim Cyborg Raiden kinda resembles MGS2 Raiden. I mean... he doesn't... at all. I watched his first trailer and just thought it was a new Cyborg Ninja.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:23:44 PM | message detail
Crono is performing pretty badly here considering the fact that Raiden looks to be not as strong as we thought.


Or...Raiden IS a strong as people thought and this is just Crono being a beast. >>
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:24:06 PM | message detail
You can look at it two ways: Either the Cyborg pic is helping him, and he's even weaker than we thought, or it's hurting him, and his performance isn't that bad.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:24:19 PM | message detail
I know Zero and BT form the axis of evil around here, but Zero is looking mighty fine without even doing anything yet.
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Should I start running now?
LordOfDabu | Posted 9/16/2007 9:24:25 PM | message detail
I don't understand why people think Crono is disappointing here when his percentage is seemingly higher than most people thought he'd be getting.
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:24:29 PM | message detail
we're fishing for Raiden excuses already? give this match some time. Raiden's looking to open up once the actual night vote hits. this time period... we need to stop assuming Fisher is ass with it. because we just don't know with the new time.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
charmander6000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:24:33 PM | message detail
Crono is NOT performing well here. Every other N9 member has gotten over 50%. Crono has no excuse. His pack is a bunch of scrubs

Relax none of the other N9 characters had over 50% at the beginning of the match, but with an update like that he may have some trouble.

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Match 15: Crono > Raiden Points: 42/56
Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:25:45 PM | message detail
So far it seems they're taking turns winning the night vote. Except Sam.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:25:47 PM | message detail
Raiden might open up with the night vote, but I'll wager Fisher at the very least kills his percentage when the sun comes up, at the most cuts into the lead.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:25:51 PM | message detail
Raiden's doing consistently better.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/16/2007 9:26:06 PM | message detail
Okay, Raiden is shooting up now.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:26:16 PM | message detail
The deep night vote is Crono's territory. He'll be a lot higher than he is right now before the morning hits.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 9:26:35 PM | message detail
Arrrgh Fisher come on. How did you do that well with board 8 hating on you then falter now damnit.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 9:27:03 PM | message detail
I love the number of people in here that somehow think a 4-way poll has any bearing on the strength of a character in 2-way match. Crono and Raiden are both doing just fine, all things considered. It's not like they have reason to SFF Sam and Simon into the ground, or anything.
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:27:09 PM | message detail
Fisher will kill percentages during the day, but it'll mostly be Crono and Simon. Raiden probably won't move too much; Fisher will just come shooting up.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:27:15 PM | message detail
It took Link 10 minutes and Cloud 15 minutes to break 50%, but it took Sephiroth over 3 hours. However, it looks like Crono's stabilizing now.....
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 9:27:18 PM | message detail
Crono should be good to finish around the 50% area. Hardly impressive, but not disappointing either.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:27:41 PM | message detail
Crono's at a good enough spot right now that I'm not too worried. He beat Vincent once before, and is still the statistical favourite by a good margin. Not to mention every year we have potential NN breakers and none of them ever pan out.

Although this year WILL be the year. That's right, I'm referring to the badassed robot you'll see dominating the poll tomorrow.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 9:28:09 PM | message detail
Fisher > Raiden, but it's a good thing I'm in the minority!

...plus those SC > MGS haters need to learn their place
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:28:24 PM | message detail
Not talking about HK btw

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:28:33 PM | message detail
I don't see Raiden decreasing in % much when the sun rises. MGS day votes have been much better this year than before.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 9:28:57 PM | message detail
Lemme remind you red sox that Link had some pretty weak characters to face, and Cloud also had Midgar Zolom to SFF the **** out of. Sephiroth had Peach and Meta-Knight. Not to mention CATS, who I'm just gonna assume has a decent night vote.
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:29:02 PM | message detail
Crono won't finish that high. I like him finishing where he is right now, actually.

I also like Raiden to win this in a rather anticlimactic way. even when Fisher was cutting at his lead, I thought Raiden would open back up. casual favourite + BRACKETS? I could see Fisher getting an unusual amount of votes there.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:29:05 PM | message detail
The one who won't get touched by Link, I presume?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:29:07 PM | message detail
I wouldn't consider a loss by a NN this year breaking the grouping anyway. The format breaks the convention in which the whole term is based upon.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:29:29 PM | message detail
Fisher will get the afterschool vote just because he has those kewl night vision goggles.
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Should I start running now?
Janus5000 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:29:46 PM | message detail
...plus those SC > MGS haters need to learn their place

70-30 blowouts are a good way of teaching me my place, don't worry.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:30:03 PM | message detail
I know. At this point if you asked me I'd say Crono probably won't finish above 50% actually, given that he'll drop in the day.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:30:19 PM | message detail
True, but if one of them falls, the NN will be broken in a lot of people's eyes, if not by the technical terms.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 9:31:13 PM | message detail
I love the number of people in here that somehow think a 4-way poll has any bearing on the strength of a character in 2-way match. Crono and Raiden are both doing just fine, all things considered. It's not like they have reason to SFF Sam and Simon into the ground, or anything.

It's pretty obvious the correlation between 4-way and 2-way performance will be high (in terms of order). Not close to perfect, but very high. With SFF causing major issues, but that's not the case in this match.

Though I agree, I don't see much wrong with how Crono and Raiden are doing here.

Though I doubt this unrecognizable pic could help Raiden. No way to tell if it's really hurting him though.

Also on a side note I always figured Mortal Kombat Raiden would be the strongest Raiden, but I'm not sure anymore only because I don't know if he's gotten any exposure recently. Anyone know if he's been in the recent MK games at all?
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:31:14 PM | message detail
annnnnd Raiden's lead over Sam is now as big as Sam's over Simon. Raiden's also increasing his lead at a faster rate.

unless Sam does some *crazy* junk in the daytime, this is over.
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
BDawg | Posted 9/16/2007 9:31:35 PM | message detail
Crono was hungry for percentage, and hunger gets what hunger wants.
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Should I start running now?
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:31:44 PM | message detail
Yeah Crono is really not impressing me in the slightest. He's looking to be the first NNer to finish below 50%, and by a decent margin.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:31:55 PM | message detail
I'd consider the 47-53 range to be Crono's pre-contest expectations here. Given Frog and Magus really disappointing, alot of people lowered their expectations.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/16/2007 9:32:27 PM | message detail
My god.....could this be a division I get completely right? Be still my beating heart...
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transience | Posted 9/16/2007 9:32:54 PM | message detail
KH and I were talking about this earlier:

replace Crono with Vincent here. what percentage would you expect out of him?
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xyzzy
http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:06 PM | message detail
Don't worry MMX, something crazy **** will happen, like Zero getting 2nd tomorrow or SOMETHING to **** it up. I'm just waiting for it.
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This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:09 PM | message detail
People will always doubt and question Crono based on his first matches. It NEVER FAILS!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:24 PM | message detail
Also on a side note I always figured Mortal Kombat Raiden would be the strongest Raiden, but I'm not sure anymore only because I don't know if he's gotten any exposure recently. Anyone know if he's been in the recent MK games at all?

Eh, he's so well known from back in the day, I doubt he'd need much new exposure to take care of this Raiden.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Eggplant Lord | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:27 PM | message detail
Why is everyone reacting so strongly? It looks like Raiden will win handily, and I don't recall people making Raiden out to be a powerhouse... and I don't see why he would be.

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red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:42 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Crono doesn't fall during the day today, and Fisher rises rapidly taking percentage from Simon and Raiden......probably not enough to win though.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 45/56 -- T-132 (48 way)
Bracket: Crono > Sam Fisher -- Vote: Crono
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:47 PM | message detail
replace Crono with Vincent here. what percentage would you expect out of him?

Before yesterday, about 40-41%. After yesterday, 47-48%.
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:47 PM | message detail
I'll say right now, Division 7 will be the first (and probably only) division I get completely right.

Unless MC chokes on me =(

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:33:55 PM | message detail
Yeah, The NN falling wouldn't make sense. I mean think about it. If there was a four pack of....

Link
Mega Man
Zero
Vincent

I think Vincent has a shot at second with no one there to split his fan base, but thats totally on conditions that have aren't founded purely on his strength and the noble niner's fall from power. No way would I really think Vincent was stronger than Mega Man. Just like theres no way you can tell me Snake is greater than Sephiroth. The NN can't even be threatened this contest.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 9:34:00 PM | message detail
This match is going more or less as expected so far, with Fisher impressing modestly.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 9:34:05 PM | message detail
Back-Back-Forward! w00t
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 9:34:37 PM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Crono doesn't fall during the day today, and Fisher rises rapidly taking percentage from Simon and Raiden......probably not enough to win though.


I'll take that bet!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 9:35:13 PM | message detail
I'd expect Vincent to get just under whatever Crono gets.

I honestly can't see those 2 being very different in terms of strength.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 9:35:46 PM | message detail
"It's pretty obvious the correlation between 4-way and 2-way performance will be high (in terms of order)."

I agree that, in terms of order, there is most certainly a correlation in most matches. In terms of their actual performance, though, it's less valuable of a recource than 2k2 numbers.

Oh, and no way MK Raiden is stronger than MGS Raiden. MK Raiden wouldn't do nearly as well as the two ninja from the same series while Raiden could conceivably come pretty darn close to Scorpion or even Subby.

And, may I inquire, who is to say there is no overlapping of fanbases between MGS and SC?
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