GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 486
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 6:35:12 PM | message detail |
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Now, some of you are probably crying out right now "How is Zero vs.
Raiden an important match?!" Well, it isn't, other than the fact that
it will get BT to shut the bloody hell up. And really, isn't all that
we can ask for out of a contest? I think so. Almost as important
though, is Crono vs. Vincent. Not only because it is worth a pretty
nifty 8 points, but also because it would mark the end of the Noble
Nine in the eyes of many. Sure, you can blame the format all you like,
but it doesn't change the fact that a member of the Noble Nine allowed
themselves to be defeated by that of a character outside the
illustrious group. So, we now know why exactly this match matters. How will the percentages turn out? It's pretty obvious that the two that advance will be Crono and Raiden, in that order, but it's slightly less obvious how dominant they will be over the other two. Crono has been dropping recently due to his game's initial release having been almost a full generation of GameFAQs users (13 years) ago. Combine this with his picture advantage supposedly being taken away a bit by Raiden, and it's certainly possible that he'll disappoint. On the other hand, Raiden is an enigma. He can quite literally be anywhere. He could be weaker than Soma, or he could be hanging up there with Vincent and friends. (Not that I'm saying he is, because he clearly isn't. I'm just pointing out that we don't know anything about where he ranks on the popularity charts other than the obvious "Lower than Snake") Where do I think Raiden will be? He'll obviously be the strongest non-Snake character from the series, but that isn't saying too much. Personally, and I know I'm going to get insulted for this, I'm pegging him a bit below Dante in strength. He is the main character of a Metal Gear Solid game, and no matter how much hate he may get at times, nothing other than Solid ****ing Snake can take that away from him. Alright, so we've got Raiden pegged slightly below Dante in strength, and 2k7 Crono should also be a bit below 2k6 Crono due to his continued fall from grace. Pitting Dante 2k5 against Crono 2k6 has Crono winning with 57.06%. Sam and Simon aren't exactly powerhouses, so I'll give them 28% to share, leaving us with 72% to play around with for the big two. Toss the previously calculated value in there, and Crono should get a decent 41.08%. Give the rest of the 72% to Raiden, and you've got your percentages for the top two. For the other two, there isn't all that much to be said. If I wanted to be silly, I could argue for one getting over the other based on either Konami or Stealth SFF, but I'm not quite in the mood for that. I say Simon gets the "old school" vote in order to propel him above Sam, but 3rd place could go either way and I honestly couldn't care less. What I do care about is what my predicted numbers will mean for the two matches I mentioned earlier. If one were to assume that Crono and Vincent are even, the numbers I've come up with would result in Zelda beating Raiden with 52.72% in a 1v1 match. Even if you account for a possible Zelda underperformance due to the format, this still makes Zelda look a bit too weak, which obviously supports the argument that Vincent is stronger than Crono. Unfortunately, similar conjecture isn't possible yet for Raiden vs. Zero until after Zero's match on Tuesday, so I'll just say Raiden > Zero and leave the drawing of conclusions to whoever has the guest analysis slot for that match. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 6:35:52 PM | message detail |
| Really though, those matches are well off into the
future. All that matters is the now, and the now is going to be Raiden
making Crono look like crap, despite his abomination of a match
picture. Seriously, how the hell is this -
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-15.jpg - supposed to help
Raiden? He looks terrible. Give me overly feminine looking men over
generic (and ugly) badasses any day of the week! Crono with 41.08% Raiden with 30.92% Simon Belmont with 14.01% Sam Fisher with 13.99% …The sad thing is, I would almost be willing to bet that Lopen has a higher prediction for the Thundering Cartwheel Alchemist than I do. <_< Crew Consensus: Crono > Raiden says most, but Ulti is thinking dangerously with Crono > Simon. |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/16/2007 6:38:22 PM | message detail |
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9 lead changes so far between The Boss and Tails. Boring day in the stats topic? --- Finally a damn bracket! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 6:40:29 PM | message detail |
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Huh, I don't usually write the least. Is there something special about tonight's match? >_>_> --- yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
| transience | Posted 9/16/2007 6:40:53 PM | message detail |
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no, it's one of the least interesting matches we'll have! unless you really think Raiden has a shot at Zero --- xyzzy http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/2636/ivotedphoenixyi0.png |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/16/2007 6:42:58 PM | message detail |
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From YoAriel33 Posted 9/16/2007 9:40:29 PM #104 Huh, I don't usually write the least. Is there something special about tonight's match? >_>_> well duh the noble nine is broken in just over 26 hours ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 6:43:00 PM | message detail |
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I'm smelling a Crono underperformance here, and it's going to be soo gooood. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56) |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/16/2007 6:45:21 PM | message detail |
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Crono's going to struggle here, inviting people to jump on the Vincent
> Crono bandwagon (or the Zero > Crono bandwagon...whatever). Sadly Zero will be taken out next round by Raiden, and it will be Raiden who bests Crono in round 3 instead! <_< ...seriously, Crono is going to underpreform and people are going to get hyped about it, only to have him beat Vincent anyway. Book that. --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th |
| GyratingGrandma | Posted 9/16/2007 6:49:03 PM | message detail |
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Or how about a Crono underperformance and then Vincent kicking his ass with 87% of the vote. BOOK THAT NEGRO --- mmm feel the vibration baby |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/16/2007 6:49:23 PM | message detail |
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Incidentally, Link's best hour yesterday was from 7-8 PM. Zelda's worst hour today is from...7-8 PM. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/16/2007 6:50:50 PM | message detail |
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vincent > link ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 6:51:57 PM | message detail |
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...seriously, Crono is going to underpreform and people are going to
get hyped about it, only to have him beat Vincent anyway. Book that. Got the right idea here -- except Vincent's going to be beating Crono! --- Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/16/2007 6:52:07 PM | message detail |
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don't mess with me grandma --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 6:53:10 PM | message detail |
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Whooo! I support Ulti's pick of Simon!!!! Crono will underperform and still beat Vincent soundly. That's just how he ROLLLLLS!!!! --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 7:09:38 PM | message detail |
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Got the right idea here -- except Vincent's going to be beating Crono! How about Crono gets massive time traveler rSFF on Link to take second, and Vincent takes first thanks to not being SFF'd? More seriously, Vincent now has a higher percentage on Zelda + Boss + Tails than Crono got on Link alone in 2004. So, ignoring Link/Zelda SFF, could Link break 50% on that trio? --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way) Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 7:39:47 PM | message detail |
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Mentioned in 2 writeups? aww yeah TuRtLe ~~~ 42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 7:40:48 PM | message detail |
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Round 1- Division 4 Group C Characters Involved: Crono Summer 2002 Contest East Division - 5 Seed Eastern Round 1 --- Defeated (12) Simon Belmont, 49283 [76.78%] - 14906 [23.22%] Eastern Quarterfinal --- Defeated (4) Dante, 43939 [66.58%] - 22055 [33.42%] Eastern Semifinal --- Defeated (1) Lara Croft, 52488 [70.87%] - 21571 [29.13%] Eastern Final --- Defeated (2) Solid Snake, 52517 [52.93%] - 46697 [47.07%] Final Four --- Lost to (1) Mario, 53716 [49.95%] - 53831 [50.05%] Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [37.43%] Summer 2003 Contest South Division - 4 Seed Southern Round 1 --- Defeated (13) Tom Nook, 88469 [85.81%] - 14631 [14.19%] Southern Quarterfinal --- Defeated (12) Kefka, 79999 [78.92%] - 21373 [21.08%] Southern Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Mario, 66434 [49.95%] - 66571 [50.05%] Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [38.14%] Summer 2004 Contest Hyrule Division - 3 Seed Hyrule Round 1 --- Defeated (14) Conker, 62375 [77.99%] - 17605 [22.01%] Hyrule Quarterfinal --- Defeated (6) Magus, 54361 [69.78%] - 23539 [30.22%] Hyrule Semifinal --- Defeated (2) Mario, 51430 [53.24%] - 45165 [46.76%] Hyrule Final --- Lost to (1) Link, 34821 [37.18%] - 58840 [62.82%] Extrapolated Strength --- 5th Place [37.18%] Summer 2005 Contest Flood Division - 2 Seed Flood Round 1 --- Defeated (7) Zidane, 74580 [76.72%] - 22636 [23.28%] Flood Semifinal --- Defeated (6) Tommy Vercetti, 70921 [70.85%] - 29182 [29.15%] Flood Final --- Defeated (1) Master Chief, 60203 [61.29%] - 38028 [38.71%] Elite Eight --- Defeated (5) Vincent, 52814 [55.38%] - 42546 [44.62%] Final Four --- Defeated (1) Mega Man, 53283 [51.35%] - 50479 [48.65%] Finals --- Lost to (1) Mario, 47762 [46.15%] - 55739 [53.85%] Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [36.54%] Summer 2006 Contest Time Division - 1 Seed Time Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Captain Falcon, 84090 [74.16%] - 29306 [25.84%] Time Semifinal --- Defeated (4) Bowser, 68821 [57.44%] - 50986 [42.56%] Time Final --- Defeated (3) Auron, 68115 [54.50%] - 56865 [45.50%] Elite Eight --- Lost to (1) Sonic the Hedgehog, 62087 [49.23%] - 64027 [50.77%] Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [41.56%] Despite being on that bottom tier of the Noble Nine with Mega Man and Sonic, Crono is no slacker. Expect him to do well here, despite the fact that he may be the first NNer to fail to break 50% this year. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 7:42:35 PM | message detail |
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Sam Fisher Summer 2003 Contest North Division - 4 Seed Northern Round 1 --- Lost to (13) Magus, 30866 [33.75%] - 60598 [66.25%] Extrapolated Strength --- 35th Place [22.81%] Summer 2004 Contest Chaos Division - 7 Seed Chaos Round 1 --- Defeated (10) Gordon Freeman, 41691 [55.43%] - 33528 [44.57%] Chaos Quarterfinal --- Lost to (2) Samus, 15464 [19.03%] - 65809 [80.97%] Extrapolated Strength --- 50th Place [15.03%] Summer 2005 Contest Flood Division - 5 Seed Flood Round 1 --- Lost to (4) Donkey Kong, 30708 [35.24%] - 56433 [64.76%] Extrapolated Strength --- 44th Place [19.62%] A running joke in these contests, Sam Fisher bears the dubius honour of being one of the characters that beat Gordon Freeman. He shouldn't be much of a threat here. Simon Belmont Summer 2002 Contest East Division - 12 Seed Eastern Round 1 --- Lost to (5) Crono, 14906 [23.22%] - 49283 [76.78%] Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [17.38%] Simon makes a return to the bracket after 5 years, and judging from Soma's performance last year he won't be doing too much damage here. Raiden Summer 2003 Contest West Division - 16 Seed Western Round 1 --- Lost to (1) Solid Snake, 17480 [17.12%] - 84638 [82.88%] Extrapolated Strength --- 59th Place [12.29%] One of 2 potential midcarders that got completely screwed in 2004 (the other being Protoman), Raiden finally has a chance to prove himself. Since he's basically the star of MGS2, he should have no trouble being the strongest non-Snake MGS character. Then again, nobody likes the little wimp. Nonetheless, he shouldn't have too much trouble getting second here. Predictions: Crono's about equal to Mega Man, and I'd say his opponents are roughly equal (unless Raiden REALLY surprises here), so 50% should be the magic number. Raiden should easily outclass Simon and Sam and may push for 30% here. Though personally, I think 25% is more realistic. Simon and Sam should be close enough to equal, so let's give them 12.5 each. TuRtLe's Prediction: Crono 50%, Raiden 25%, Sam and Simon 12.5% each TuRtLe's Bracket: Crono > Raiden TuRtLe's Vote: Crono TuRtLe ~~~ 42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/16/2007 7:43:48 PM | message detail |
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Whose was the second? ...Unless you now consider anything at all related to Zero to be solely about you. ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 7:45:08 PM | message detail |
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Crono and CT in general always impresses when they go up against uber strong people Crono managed to get 37% on link,which was a impressive at that time CT got 43% on FFVII.even more impressive Crono has the advantage of having,apparently,a very dedicated fanbase.he is completely immune from SFF...actualy,he and CT seem to Overperform a bit when they go up against the main forces of the site (zelda and FF7) |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 7:46:29 PM | message detail |
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So, ignoring Link/Zelda SFF, could Link break 50% on that trio? Most likely yes, Link scored 44% on Snake/Sephiroth/Cloud. I can see him scoring at least 60% on Zelda/TheBoss/Tails. --- Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid |
| ejm5446 | Posted 9/16/2007 7:54:23 PM | message detail |
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Some of your percentages for Crono are really low. 40 percent? Every member of the N9 has gotten over 50% so far: 70.50% Link 61.24% Cloud Strife 57.91% Mario 55.23% Sephiroth 51.75% Samus Aran 50.49% Mega Man I would be pretty shocked if Crono didn't get there as well. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/16/2007 7:56:58 PM | message detail |
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I'd be shocked if Crono did break 50%. --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 8:00:38 PM | message detail |
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KH's writeup was dripping with turtle bait TuRtLe ~~~ 42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:01:01 PM | message detail |
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Link and Cloud are far above Crono's league. And Crono has the toughest fourpack out of the others, not to mention he's looking like the weakest going in thanks to last year and CT not impressing thus far. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56) |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:01:56 PM | message detail |
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Link had the toughest four-pack and we all know it. Bidoof is a beast, --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th |
| ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 8:02:18 PM | message detail |
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Fear the 'Doof --- Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 8:03:30 PM | message detail |
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KH's writeup was dripping with turtle bait If you would just assume that everything I say is laced with hidden insults toward you things would be much easier --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:05:03 PM | message detail |
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Seriously, maybe Crono will win the day vote in this match. All of his opponent aren't really good with the day vote. --- Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu. Alt Account of someone who is lame and stupid |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:05:23 PM | message detail |
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Anyone find it interesting that the percentages the Noble Nine have
gotten in their first round matches correlate almost exactly to their
place in the hierarchy? Mario > Sephiroth, baby! --- Kleenex - Now with an invigorating blast of citrus cherry flavor. CB6 - 38/52; Oracle - 40th |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/16/2007 8:08:18 PM | message detail |
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From KleenexTissue50 Posted 9/16/2007 11:05:23 PM #130 Anyone find it interesting that the percentages the Noble Nine have gotten in their first round matches correlate almost exactly to their place in the hierarchy? Ooh, I like this theory. I can't wait for Snake's fourpack. =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 8:14:40 PM | message detail |
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Fisher is actually pretty good with the day vote. He chopped up DK's
percentage pretty well with it (granted DK's not a 'normal' Nintendo
character in that respect). --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:16:24 PM | message detail |
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so DK actually does better in the night or morning or what? --- Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:17:04 PM | message detail |
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Crono is gonna whoop that ass tomorrow. You just wait and see. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 8:19:23 PM | message detail |
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Crono probably has the hardest fourpack so far out of all the noble niners though. Mega had 50%.i don't expect Crono to reach that much here.45% seems nice.40% seems a bit dissapointing.any less than that and vincent probably goes to the third round as the favorite over Crono. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:22:55 PM | message detail |
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Your calling Simon and Sam hard? LOL! --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/16/2007 8:23:48 PM | message detail |
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No, he's calling Raiden a potential noble nine breaker. =D ~~~ Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism. Embok. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:24:05 PM | message detail |
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Diablo and KOS-MOS trashes both Sam and Simon. --- Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52 |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:24:23 PM | message detail |
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er, trash. --- Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52 |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:27:21 PM | message detail |
| DK starts out strong and collapses after noon or
so, and makes no recovery at night. DK got to a 3200 lead against Duck
Hunt, and ended up winning by about 100, and got to a 2000 lead on
Master Chief before going on to lose by 1500. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way) Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:30:23 PM | message detail |
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Diablo and KOS-MOS trashes both Sam and Simon. Are you serious? Diablo got about 35% on Ganondorf. Remind me what Sam and Simon have done again? --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:31:14 PM | message detail |
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No, he's calling Raiden a potential noble nine breaker. =D That's about as funny as Zero being a noble nine breaker. Yes Raiden deserves a second shot. Is he breaking the Noble Nine by beating Crono? Not a chance. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:31:35 PM | message detail |
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Frog/Axel/Kerrigan is also possibly stronger than Raiden/Sam/Simon, if Raiden wasn't SFF'd that badly by Snake. --- Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way) Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:32:39 PM | message detail |
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Are you serious? Diablo got about 35% on Ganondorf. Remind me what Sam and Simon have done again? no, no. I mean Diablo and KOS-MOS both own them. they don't lose to them. --- Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 8:33:19 PM | message detail |
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I still don't understand that Donkey Kong/Duck Hunt match. How could those 2 games have such varying trends? TuRtLe ~~~ 42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:33:39 PM | message detail |
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Oh ok, my bad, I misread that. It's all good dog. And Frog and Axel are damn sure stronger than Simon/Sam I'll tell ya that. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/16/2007 8:35:32 PM | message detail |
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I really expect Crono to break 50% unless Raiden takes up too much of it. --- Today: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails Tomorrow: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Crono - Points: 42/52 |
| Just Some Person | Posted 9/16/2007 8:35:38 PM | message detail |
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Tails brings up the rear after being tortured to near-death by Ms. Boss. Wah-wah-wahhhh... --- Food. |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/16/2007 8:36:39 PM | message detail |
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I really expect Crono to break 50% unless Raiden takes up too much of it. Now that's what I'm talkin bout. Now as long as your not on any crazy Vincent > Crono bandwagons, then your good to go. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/16/2007 8:36:49 PM | message detail |
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DK doesn't have trends. He builds up a lead and then does everything he
possibly can to lose it. The only exception (besides possibly DK/Aya,
which is lost to the mists of time) is DK/Vercetti, where he made a
half-hearted grab for the lead and then promptly collapsed once he had
it. --- Mustache...and green... www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
