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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 486

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 10:40:26 PM | message detail
Yo said it, but he didn't really mean it as a "who do you think woudl win?" question so much as "c'mon, would you really vote these guys over Guile?" statement. I think.

Either way, I'd take Dan over Guile to enter the contest and in a direct match up. And I'd much rather see Cammy in than old mop-top. Guile just plain sucks.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:41:41 PM | message detail
Well...Crono's just taking off now. He'll likely get as high at 51% before his drop.


Hopefully, it won't be too big.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 10:44:02 PM | message detail
"guile only loses to bison because his shirt does cpr"

And Raul Julia is about a million times cooler than van Damme, even without currently living. Bison, Cammy, and Guile were all appropriate cast in that movie, even if everyone else was not. Cammy (Minogue) I want, Bison (Julia) I fear/respect, Guile (van Damme) is a complete turd-fest. So appropriate.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
TimJab | Posted 9/16/2007 10:47:13 PM | message detail
cammy was so hot in the movie
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 10:48:05 PM | message detail
Yep. By far the best reason to watch it. <3 Kylie Minogue.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 10:49:25 PM | message detail
we're probably at crono's best hours now.he does better when there's no one to comment on it.when people arrive they only see him falling/and or stalling,so they say

"lol crono"
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 10:51:04 PM | message detail
Jesus getting near 60% updates
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 10:52:23 PM | message detail
Jesus is going to win then!
transience | Posted 9/16/2007 10:53:38 PM | message detail
wow, go Crono. every time he jumps like that, I feel better about him beating Vincent. I didn't think he had 60% updates in him anymore, but maybe.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/16/2007 10:55:53 PM | message detail
The bigger they are, the harder they fall!

I hope...
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Crono/Raiden/Sam/Simon - Bracket: Crono > Raiden - Vote: Raiden (48/56)
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 10:56:18 PM | message detail
OMG FISHER CUT
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/16/2007 10:56:25 PM | message detail
Sorry I wasn't that clear. I just meant who deserves to be in the tournament more. Of course, we now know Chichiri's answer. =P
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 10:56:50 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, but why is this all that surprising? Square characters have had a hard time in the first hour or so of, well, pretty much every poll ever. And they pretty much all make a big recovery right afterwards. I don't see anything special going on here. But, then again, I don't understand why everyone started the match off doomsaying.

I guess we can't all take into consideration that the first hour/hour-and-a-half of a poll isn't everything.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 10:57:10 PM | message detail
Hey that's not what I want to see :(

Well... It looks like things are already different for Crono this year. Last year he hit his peak at 2 am in almost all his matches. That doesn't seem to be the case this time.

But I wonder just what prompted him to have such a hyper first 2 hours last year
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This story is not an end yet.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 11:01:07 PM | message detail
*watches Crono's % drop*

Er... a fluke. Hopefully I didn't speak too soon >_> <_<
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 11:04:52 PM | message detail
"But I wonder just what prompted him to have such a hyper first 2 hours last year"

1st opponent: Nintendo character (Falcon)
2nd opponent: Nintendo character (Bowser)
3rd opponent: Square character (Auron)
4th opponent: Sega character (Sonic)

In the first two, he had a massive disadvantage in the openning moments. When your opposition over performs in the first 15 and you recover, of course it's going to look like you jumped big time. The third was agaisnt another Square character and he lost % pretty much all day. Auron is a day character when compared to Crono. Against Sonic, he didn't start bleeding % until later on.

All told, Crono has a tendancy of being disavantaged in the oppening moments while he is a (late) night vote-getter. Makes sense, really.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 11:05:41 PM | message detail
For the hour 1 AM - 2 AM...

Crono - 51.36%
Sam - 16.45%
Simon - 12.83%
Raiden - 19.36%

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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 11:09:43 PM | message detail
If he's at a massive disadvantage in the opening hours then it makes his first 2 hours look all the more hyper since even with that disadvantage, he reaches a high peak that outclasses even the rest of his night vote.

And yes, Crono peaked against Sonic at 2 AM as well. Although he didn't actually do worse after that, he did as well for about an hour and then starting falling even during the night vote. His voting patterns were extremely front loaded that year considering he performed better in the opening couple of hours than he did in the actual night vote, which is kind of unusual.


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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2007 11:10:22 PM | message detail
I wish that Simon had a KH like dayvote so he could take the second spot... But seeing Raiden in round 2 is also cool and good for my bracket, hopefully Sam won't be up to something...
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 11:12:24 PM | message detail
He's not at a disadvantage in the openning hours. That's when his advantage is biggest. He's at a disadvantage in the first few minutes and recovering from that can take time, which is why he often looks like he climbs noticably in the first two hours.

And there is really nothing here to indicate he isn't goign to remain front-loaded. The voting trends are altered a bit by the nature of the poll, but chances are in an hour or two he's going to start slipping again.
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voltch | Posted 9/16/2007 11:14:02 PM | message detail
So raiden,most disapointing MG character so far due to expectations?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 11:15:32 PM | message detail
If you count 1:10 AM - 2:10 AM..

Raiden - 18.83%
Sam - 16.95%
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2007 11:18:05 PM | message detail
Euh Sam even won that update. Quick asomeone who knows this kind of stuff, how is Sam Fisher's day vote compared to the average MGS character.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 11:18:23 PM | message detail
Sam just made a 12 vote gain.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
__hiei__ | Posted 9/16/2007 11:18:35 PM | message detail
well,look at sephiroth's % at this time

48.94%

Crono is actualy doing better than seph so far. >_>
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:21:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, Raiden is quite disappointing so far but we can't put all the blame entirely on him.

1. Raiden got a unrecognisable picture that won't do him any good in this contest. I think a handful of the people here didn't even watch that MGS4 trailer featuring Raiden. (Same scenario as ZSS)
2. Raiden has a noticeable fanbase with Sam Fisher. After all, their game are of the same Genre and Generation.

3 MGS characters did well, 1 subpar, 2 more to go.
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voltch | Posted 9/16/2007 11:22:02 PM | message detail
but seph was against two nintendo's and CATS.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 11:22:29 PM | message detail
Two cuts in a row by Sam. I can't believe this.. this should be Raiden's best time against Sam should it not? Hell even I thought this pick was a ridiculous longshot.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/16/2007 11:22:48 PM | message detail
It's hard to say about Sam. He gained on DK all day long, like everyone else does. He got completely curb-stomped by Samus. And against GF, he lost the day vote badly.

I'm going to say it doesn't look too good for him. Which is good for me, since he's by far the worst character in the poll.
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voltch | Posted 9/16/2007 11:24:07 PM | message detail
Sam fisher looks like a plonker in his new game anyway.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 11:24:19 PM | message detail
He's at a disadvantage in the first few minutes and recovering from that can take time, which is why he often looks like he climbs noticably in the first two hours.

That can affect the % climb, but I'm not really going by that so it's irrelevant. Even throwing out the first 30 minutes completely, Crono was front-loaded for every match but Captain Falcon. in which he was a bit more... normal.

It's a bit different against Bowser, but that's because it was on the weekend. The morning vote comes an hour or 2 later on weekends. Accounting for that, he still had the trend of dropping off in the middle of nowhere right when the night vote was still in full swing
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
creativename | Posted 9/16/2007 11:24:31 PM | message detail
hiei
Jesus is going to win then!

For some reason this made me laugh hard :)


YoAriel
Sorry I wasn't that clear. I just meant who deserves to be in the tournament more.

OK I see, I agree with you then :)
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:24:32 PM | message detail
Actually, Fisher went even with Gordon until the day vote came and he went nuts.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/16/2007 11:25:43 PM | message detail
From: ChichiriMuyo
It's hard to say about Sam. He gained on DK all day long, like everyone else does. He got completely curb-stomped by Samus. And against GF, he lost the day vote badly.

I'm going to say it doesn't look too good for him. Which is good for me, since he's by far the worst character in the poll.


What?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=1748&num=2

He kicked Gordon's ass in the day. The only time he lost votes was during the night.
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SC2k7: 41/56, tied for 784th
Today's Pick: Crono > Sam Fisher
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:32:06 PM | message detail
I think Fisher's got this match. Raiden isn't doing anything and if the other MGS characters are any indication, he's going to disappear when the day hits.
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Currently Playing: Persona 3
transience | Posted 9/16/2007 11:35:36 PM | message detail
why is fisher doing better at in the true night than that front-loaded day vote

i am so confused here
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xyzzy
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voltch | Posted 9/16/2007 11:49:24 PM | message detail
fischer changed since his last appearence alright.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:50:43 PM | message detail
I don't think this is Fisher changing. It's just Raiden sucking ass.
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Currently Playing: Persona 3
transience | Posted 9/16/2007 11:55:03 PM | message detail
this format should be kind to Fisher, but...

I don't know, I'll wait and see here. every time I think I know what's going on, the characters all follow different trends randomly.
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xyzzy
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:56:47 PM | message detail
How did Fisher do with the day vote against Samus? I know Samus is a bit of an anomaly in the Nintendo world because she doesn't really have a good day vote so maybe that might give us some insight into Fisher's day vote.
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Currently Playing: Persona 3
transience | Posted 9/16/2007 11:57:47 PM | message detail
Fisher was getting destroyed by Samus there, so he made a nice little comeback.

Samus also got destroyed by Sora in the daytime.
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xyzzy
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/16/2007 11:59:45 PM | message detail
Actually, looks like Sam did better in the night than in the day against Samus
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 12:03:50 AM | message detail
Raiden consistently getting 20+% for the past half hour. I guess he'll finally build that lead he needs
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
transience | Posted 9/17/2007 12:07:59 AM | message detail
ah, yeah, you're right. those huge 2k4 pages make it look different than it really is. looks like they essentially went even.

Belmont's going just about even with Fisher here all of a sudden. what a weird match.
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xyzzy
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/17/2007 12:12:32 AM | message detail
n00b - CT has always shown itself to be strong in the night. While Crono MAY do something different here, this being a 4-way poll could easily be the reason for any change. If he keeps gaining when morning comes then we have something to talk about.

Darunia - Sorry, I'm doing homework and tossing back a couple beers here. My mind isn't particularly focused, so I didn't look at the numbers too closely. Hell, it took me a minute to find his match against Samus just because I was expecting her name to be on the left on the poll updates page...
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:12:57 AM | message detail
Finally, Raiden is starting to pull in the updates he needs. He'll really need them though because the day vote will not be kind.
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Currently Playing: Persona 3
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/17/2007 12:14:18 AM | message detail
I know CT is strong in the night. That's why it's weird that Crono was dropping off in the middle of the night. Did you somehow miss that? >_>

Also looks like Crono's % has been essentially unchanged for the past 40 minutes. I think he peaked between 2:00 and 3:00 again.... heh
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/17/2007 12:19:19 AM | message detail
Crono's starting to fall apart at the seams now, it looks like.
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Viviff | Posted 9/17/2007 12:19:40 AM | message detail
Random 500?
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Zephyr Phoenix | Posted 9/17/2007 12:19:54 AM | message detail
500
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