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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 485

hochiminh155 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:37:09 AM | message detail
Lastly, Tails must be affecting Zelda here

lalalala... that's what I said yesterday and everyone laughed at me. Sonic is going to hurt Link in the finals.

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Draco1214 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:38:30 AM | message detail
Tails isn't affecting crap. This is just further proof that MGS characters flourish in this environment.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:39:49 AM | message detail
Think Zelda is going to dip under 30%? That would be pretty damn funny
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ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 11:40:20 AM | message detail
I admit I may be going a bit high with the prediction. For whatever reason, I don't have much respect for Zelda -- maybe it's hard for me to grasp how she has so many fans, I dunno -- and hold Vincent up to the level of a lower end noble nine character. Something like 55/45 seems about right, as opposed to the 57% stuff.

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wavedash101 | Posted 9/16/2007 11:41:36 AM | message detail
No it wouldnt...its going to happen though

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 11:58:57 AM | message detail
The only way Vincent is a lower end Noble Niner is if FF7 gets a remake that does well.

Granted, that's looking more and more likely. By all means, Vincent shouldn't be as strong this year as he was last year. He had nothing come out since before last contest.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 12:01:45 PM | message detail
Hochim, given that you never came in here before you got on the leaderboard and I'm suspicious about you being an alt, you need to cut your attitude. Fedor was enough the first time, and you're not even as good as he was. Besides, he was perfect for like a round and a half...you're not perfect and it's not even halfway through the first round.

Simmer down #2.



*is done associating with fedor-lite*
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 12:02:49 PM | message detail
Crono boosted for two years straight and stayed constant for a third before finally declining last year (for a total of ONE time so far). Not having a game between years doesn't ensure JACK, you're wrong again, you should feel bad about yourself, et cetera
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ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 12:03:43 PM | message detail
Granted, that's looking more and more likely. By all means, Vincent shouldn't be as strong this year as he was last year. He had nothing come out since before last contest.

Correction there -- he has no reason to be stronger. He doesn't drop in strength because he's had nothing to come out within the past year. Vincent isn't someone who has to rely on "what have you done for me recently."

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Final Fantasy VII Remake -- Believe
HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 12:08:53 PM | message detail
Vincent doesn't strike me as somebody who'd drop after a year of having nothing (though DoC does look like it's forgotten by now). Vincent stole the Devil Division with nothing but FF7 when it was...what, eight years old? He then got a FF:AC leak-against Crono, then the FF:AC release alongside DoC last year. At worst, he's back down to 2k5 pre-FF:AC leak (asuming that even did anything for him)...and that's still arguably enough to beat Zelda with the right scenarios.

I don't think he dropped though, despite not having anything in a year (outside of FF12, Square didn't have anything since his last match).



It's so weird that I've got Vincent > Crono and STILL under-estimated him somewhere...though the Vincent > Crono situation is unique.
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:16:44 PM | message detail
You really think Vincent would be Zelda worse than Snake did? After TP?

That was Snake before his major boost though, when he nearly lost to Bowser.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way)
Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:17:21 PM | message detail
Crono boosted for two years straight and stayed constant for a third before finally declining last year (for a total of ONE time so far). Not having a game between years doesn't ensure JACK, you're wrong again, you should feel bad about yourself, et cetera

Crono's only boost came with the year of Square. 2k4 was just him benfiting from the really low votals. He stayed constant in 2k5 while everyone boosted around him, as evidenced by his matches with Mario and MM. Last year he really felt the burn as higher votals once again screwed him over against Sonic. Votals higher this year spells trouble for him, but I still think he can handle Vincent.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:19:36 PM | message detail
2k2 to 2k3 boost k thanks
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:20:06 PM | message detail
Me picking Zelda in this match wasn't me taking 2k6 values to heart, it was me looking at Ganondorf/Vincent and assuming TP would put Zelda over Ganondorf's level. That and I figured The Boss would be doing more to hurt Vincent here, but clearly MGS characters have been doing great in this format.

Though today really showed Zelda's true colours. Maybe Zelda/Yuna was legit, and both stayed at their 2k5 levels.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:20:35 PM | message detail
Crono's only boost came with the year of Square.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:21:17 PM | message detail
2k2 to 2k3 boost k thanks

Since he actually beat Mario and all >.>
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 12:25:35 PM | message detail
It's been said that this format may not be particularly flattering to LoZ characters not named Link though, and I wouldn't be surprised. I still think Zelda > Ganon head-to-head or in this format, maybe indirectly too...but Ganon could really change my mind on both Zelda > Ganon and LoZ-characters in this contest if he does well.

After seeing Zelda today, Midna suddenly hasn't disappointed so much.....
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 12:28:01 PM | message detail
Eh, Midna's still nowhere near where most people were calling her to be (I *highly* doubt she beats Scorpion head-to-head, for example).
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red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:28:26 PM | message detail
I don't think Crono boosted in 2003- remember that Crono outdid Cloud's performance on Mario in 2002. Sure, you can blame Super Mario Sunshine- but then Mario/Crono happened 4 days after Mario/Cloud, and it probably didn't affect either match all that dramatically. I don't think Cloud would have gotten above 53% on Crono that year.....add in some SFF in Link/Mario, and Cloud ends up next to Sephiroth and Megaman, with Mario/Crono/Samus/Sonic/Snake narrowly behind them.

And I think Vincent would have beaten Sonic in 2003, as Aeris got 47% on him that year. Vincent also beats Snake that year, probably, and he would have had a good chance against Crono, Mario, and Megaman.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way)
Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:29:11 PM | message detail
2k2: Lost to (1) Mario, 53716 [49.95%] - 53831 [50.05%]
2k3: Southern Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Mario, 66434 [49.95%] - 66571 [50.05%]

We already covered how higher votals have hurt Crono, but he managed to stay equal with Mario despite this.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:29:57 PM | message detail
Lets see...so far, I feel TP has done jack **** for anyone not named Link. A 1% at most maybe.


Other than Link and Midna, no other character was really that prominent in the game. And we saw how Midna ended up doing. Zelda was barely in the game as is and her role wasn't really that memorable. And since the majority of the hype for the game was coming from people who would have voted for Zelda as is in the first place, I don't think TP really created that much of a shift.

Except for Link, as I can see even more people liking him when this game's facial expressions really made Link feel more alive.


Well, just my take, but I seriously think the TP factor is negligible. ...At least in this format.
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Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:32:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:33:05 PM | message detail
We already covered how higher votals have hurt Crono, but he managed to stay equal with Mario despite this.

Actually he managed to beat Mario in 24 hours and then that match ran for another 15 mins

So he boosted.
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:33:09 PM | message detail
Crono's fanbase also really isn't tied to New Square much at all. This isn't conclusive, but looking at the Games Contest, FFVII/CT actually got more votes than FFVII/OOT, which would indicate that FFVII/CT did not have much SFF.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way)
Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:33:47 PM | message detail
Wait.... what are you trying to say? Because it sounds like you're agreeing with me

TuRtLe
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42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/16/2007 12:34:05 PM | message detail
I could see Ganon benefitting some from TP, moreso than Zelda at the least. He didn't have much screentime, but he definitely had the "cool factor" going for him when he did show up. Probably won't amount to much, though. TP didn't give Ganon and Zelda near the prominence it should've.

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Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:35:40 PM | message detail
Wait.... what are you trying to say? Because it sounds like you're agreeing with me

He boosted in 2k3 and 2k4. You said just one year >.>
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:36:25 PM | message detail
We already covered how higher votals have hurt Crono, but he managed to stay equal with Mario despite this.

How does Crono boosting in 2003 show that higher votals hurt him?

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Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way)
Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 12:37:44 PM | message detail
How does Crono staying constant in 2005 prove that higher votals hurt him, for that matter?
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Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:38:00 PM | message detail
I could see Ganon benefitting some from TP, moreso than Zelda at the least. He didn't have much screentime, but he definitely had the "cool factor" going for him when he did show up. Probably won't amount to much, though. TP didn't give Ganon and Zelda near the prominence it should've.


I can agree there. Next in the probably order for a boost would be Ganon. Even if he was a bit "tacked on" at the end, he still had an aura of awesomeness and a cool final battle to boot. It could help him a few points.


But then again, the idea of Zelda > Ganon just never sat right with me in the first place, so I imagine Ganon is still way stronger and Zelda last year was just a huge overperformance.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/16/2007 12:38:03 PM | message detail
I'm not calling for Midna > Scorpion either. I'm just saying that we would have expected Scorpion's four-pack to be much closer like it was if we saw today's match first.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:38:22 PM | message detail
He didn't boost in 2k4

The low votals are what put him over Mario, and then when the votals hit record highs in 2k5, Mario trounced him.

Crono only boosted once.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/16/2007 12:38:30 PM | message detail
I think the TP factor is the same with every other game on this site. The boost comes from hype before release and virtually nothing afterwards.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:39:27 PM | message detail
Hyrule Semifinal --- Defeated (2) Mario, 51430 [53.24%] - 45165 [46.76%]
Finals --- Lost to (1) Mario, 47762 [46.15%] - 55739 [53.85%]

I stand corrected. Mario just boosted to all hell between 2k4 and 2k5, but the higher votals still hurt him in his other matches.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:40:11 PM | message detail
I think the TP factor is the same with every other game on this site. The boost comes from hype before release and virtually nothing afterwards.

Mario Sunshine, Mortal Kombat Armageddon, Final Fantasy 12 (if you believe that played a part in Tifa/Smaus)

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Samurai7 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:40:25 PM | message detail
Votals don't matter. If he performed better in 2k4 than 2k4 he boosted, no matter the cause
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Conformity and rebellion...both ways are simple-minded--they are only for people who cannot cope with contradiction and ambiguity.
red sox 777 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:41:53 PM | message detail
So Crono didn't boost the year he held Mario to 3 updates during the day, but he did boost in 2003, when he did slightly better than in 2002, while Mario went from 50% on Cloud to 38% on Sephiroth?
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 41/52 -- T-207 (91 way)
Bracket: Zelda > Vincent -- Vote: Vincent
Keno316 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:42:06 PM | message detail
I think the TP factor is the same with every other game on this site. The boost comes from hype before release and virtually nothing afterwards.


There could be something to that. The Pre-TP hype definitely felt bigger than the time after it was release and the criticism came around.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/16/2007 12:42:59 PM | message detail
Tails is gonna spike shortly. n_n
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 12:43:05 PM | message detail
I'd like to know what matches Crono was "hurt" in 2005. Crono/Mega Man went almost exactly as the stats predicted. Same for Crono/Vercetti. Other than that you've got Vincent and Zidane, two untested characters, and Master Chief. If you wanna draw conclusions off of HIS matches, that's fine by me.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/16/2007 12:44:45 PM | message detail
You really think Vincent would be Zelda worse than Snake did? After TP?

Snake beat Zelda with 55% when he was still at the bottom of the Noble Nine, mind you. Vincent's probably past 2005 Snake levels by this point.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2007 12:45:35 PM | message detail
Tails is gonna spike shortly. n_n

XD
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:47:14 PM | message detail
I do want to draw conclusions off of HIS matches.

You can say lower votals "boosted" him, but I think that's a misnomer. I prefer to think of it as hurting everyone else in the field.

And Magus losing to Knuckles and Frog getting his ass beat in by Samus after disappointing against Riku are reason enough for me to believe Crono was hurting in 2k5, at least a little bit.

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/16/2007 12:48:14 PM | message detail
So all we draw from today are Zelda going back to her 2k5 value and getting nothing from TP?

Works for me!

TuRtLe
~~~
42/52 in the contest. Next pick: Zelda > Vincent
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Zylo the wolf | Posted 9/16/2007 12:48:43 PM | message detail
You are all forgeting the important thing here.

Tails is now in third place, go go Tails ^_^
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. Proud supporter of Knuckles and Magus in Character Battle VI
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/16/2007 12:49:19 PM | message detail
I do want to draw conclusions off of HIS matches.

Alright then.

According to MC, FROG SUCKS.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/16/2007 12:49:34 PM | message detail
Stop arguing with someone who clearly has no idea what he's talking about!

It's been said that this format may not be particularly flattering to LoZ characters not named Link though, and I wouldn't be surprised.

Luigi > Ganondorf confirmed!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/16/2007 12:50:17 PM | message detail
And...good game, Boss.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/16/2007 12:50:23 PM | message detail
Ugh Tails is winning. Nobody has any respect for The Boss
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TRE Public Account | Posted 9/16/2007 12:51:30 PM | message detail
2k3 - 133005 votes cast. Mario had to cheat to stay even with Crono.
2k6 - 126114 votes cast. Crono now loses to Sonic.

Vote total goes down, Crono now has problems dealing with Sonic instead of going head to head with a Mario who was supposedly boosted by ton of cheated votes. Crono, Mario and Sonic simply changed in strength. Vote totals have nothing to do with it.
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