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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 484

HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 5:41:47 PM | message detail
Just got to looking over the bracket...there's a good chance Solid Snake looks unimpressive in Round Three. Not that he's gonna be in any danger of losing, check out his possible opponents. If Samus and/or Yoshi took away Solid's newfound-SSBB support, then Kirby will too. There will also be Kratos and probably Riku to fight over Solid's PS-support -- Kratos is a new casual bad-ass with the newest game of the four while Riku is a really liked side-kick of the most popular new RPG franchise the past generation. Solid's getting tugged several different ways on different aspects of his fanbase.

Not that Solid's in any danger, but he could be suspect to not being terribly impressive compared to how he could look in Round One/Two/Four.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 5:43:14 PM | message detail
Yeah, I was thinking about Snake earlier today and trying to remember if there were any Nintendo characters that could result in Sonic getting ahead of him. =/
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Pondos | Posted 9/15/2007 5:44:39 PM | message detail
I have Snake winning the whole thing.





























No, really. I do.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 5:44:51 PM | message detail
If Claire's value in 2k2 didn't maintain well last year after RE4 pumped adrenaline back into the RE series, then Little Mac's value in 2k2 certainly ain't holding up. Not that he has no chance, but come on...it's a really shoddy situation for him to be in.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:45:33 PM | message detail
Tomorrow we have Sonic vs Metal Gear vs Zelda vs FFVII. we'll get a good idea on how the final match will pan out
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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2007 5:46:10 PM | message detail
15.69% is pretty good even after you account for possible SFF.

then you have VC and he's at least around that area.
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Today: Link > Bidoof - Vote: Link
Tomorrow: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails - Points: 38/48
NominateSerge | Posted 9/15/2007 5:47:16 PM | message detail
If Claire's value in 2k2 didn't maintain well last year after RE4 pumped adrenaline back into the RE series, then Little Mac's value in 2k2 certainly ain't holding up. Not that he has no chance, but come on...it's a really shoddy situation for him to be in.

...Did you honestly just compare Little Mac with Claire? Those are two entirely different situations. And I really believe that Little Mac could be getting joke votes in that match instead of Matt, especially if he gets the same picture he got against Link.

And as far as Solid Snake goes, I believe he hurts Kratos and Riku long before they hurt him. Ask Sora about that.
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Vote for Serge.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/15/2007 5:47:43 PM | message detail
we'll get a good idea on how the final match will pan out

Not really. We might get a sneak peak at the voting trends, but that's about it.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 5:48:56 PM | message detail
From hochiminh155 Posted 9/15/2007 8:45:33 PM #205
Tomorrow we have Sonic vs Metal Gear vs Zelda vs FFVII. we'll get a good idea on how the final match will pan out

I suddenly want Zelda to win.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:49:32 PM | message detail
Tomorrow we have Sonic vs Metal Gear vs Zelda vs FFVII. we'll get a good idea on how the final match will pan out

Vincent/Ganondorf sure predicted last year's final match perfectly!
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"Impossible...To turn this trial around in one shot..." ~ Miles Edgeworth
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:51:15 PM | message detail
Vincent/Ganondorf sure predicted last year's final match perfectly!


Actually Sonic vs Vincent did that

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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:53:32 PM | message detail
Vincent/Ganondorf sure predicted last year's final match perfectly!


Actually Sonic vs Vincent did that



More like Solid Snake vs Sonic did.

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Match 13: Link > Bidoof Points: 36/48
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:54:34 PM | message detail
Actually Sonic vs Vincent did that

Actually Samus vs Tifa did that. Welcome to my block list, fedor!
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"Impossible...To turn this trial around in one shot..." ~ Miles Edgeworth
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 5:56:03 PM | message detail
You can't block me. I'm #1.

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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/15/2007 5:57:21 PM | message detail
#1 on his block list mirite
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This story is not an end yet.
Because only you are in the infinity loop.
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 5:57:37 PM | message detail
u r rite
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/15/2007 5:59:33 PM | message detail
I'm highly perplexed.
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Vote for Serge.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 6:02:18 PM | message detail
there's no way this guy isnt trying to be fedor, he's more fedory than fedor.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 6:06:39 PM | message detail
...Did you honestly just compare Little Mac with Claire? Those are two entirely different situations. And I really believe that Little Mac could be getting joke votes in that match instead of Matt, especially if he gets the same picture he got against Link.

It's not like I'm comparing them in strength. It's that 2k2 stats hardly hold up anymore and you know it. The VC release of Punch-Out is probably the only way he keeps from a worse fate in his return than Claire's return last year (in terms of overall strength, hard to say anything about this format). Considering how much older Little Mac is than Claire and that we've entered another generation, not to mention Claire was seen a year ago instead of now...it's really really hard to imagine him holding up.


About joke votes though...I don't see Little Mac getting joke votes nor Matt getting many. I just don't see that amounting to much outside of the initial board vote.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 6:12:04 PM | message detail
^5 the chin imho

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 6:15:55 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 6:17:14 PM | message detail
I'll play devil's advocate against myself though for a second: Claire was facing Tidus the year Sonic/Tidus went down, and the match had down-time during Sonic's day-vote for afew hours. Samus arguably screwed Sonic from advancing. Then there's the walk down Memory Lane called WDF...so if you want to fast forward to 2k6 and think Rikku may have SFF'd Kairi, then Claire may not have suffered very much at all from 2k2, oddly enough. That's just a lot of things that has to happen.

However, Little Mac still has to rely on being SFF'd by Link in 2k2 and sales on the VC to hold up instead of RE4 resurging his entire series...and how much SFF would you like to give Little Mac credit for? There's still an extra year/generation since his last match in comparison to Claire's best-case scenario for holding up well from 2k2 to 2k6, as well as much higher vote totals, a new format, and now must deal with another Nintendo-created boxer alongside Dante and Ammy...and Wii Sports is probably the most played game represented in that four-pack.


He could outdo Matt and even steal second place, but it's a really tough battle he'll have to fight.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/15/2007 6:33:21 PM | message detail
Wow...LOL Agent J.


I swear I want to see Tanner in this environment.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 6:37:22 PM | message detail
But RE4 didn't resurge anything. Jill still sucks, and anybody not from RE4 has failed miserably, and even Ada who is IN RE4 failed miserably.

I think Little Mac has second or third locked up there. I just can't see Amatsaersyaru being any good. He' like Agent J

TuRtLe
~~~
38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 6:39:39 PM | message detail
Except that Amaterasu is nothing like Agent J and you have no idea what you're talking about... oh, hey, what a shocker.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 6:50:35 PM | message detail
But RE4 didn't resurge anything. Jill still sucks, and anybody not from RE4 has failed miserably, and even Ada who is IN RE4 failed miserably.

That only helps my case about Little Mac hurting then. RE4 is a game that had such an impact in the GotY polls, Top 100 List, Series Contest, and the most recent Capcom-poll while being on three different systems...while all Little Mac has had since 2k2 possibly going in his favor is a VC-release and a Nintendo resurge (remember that PO's a NES-game). Granted, LM is the star of his game, but he'll still be in a bad situation.


Little Mac is going to have THAT much more difficult of a time retaining whatever strength he had in 2k2 than Claire did, and if you say that RE4 did nothing for any character not in it and Ada still looked like crap (Wesker too, while we're at it)...LM may be in boiling water by that logic.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2007 6:55:13 PM | message detail
and even Ada who is IN RE4 failed miserably.

how? we never saw her before. yeah she's fodder but it's not like she's a major character.
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Today: Link > Bidoof - Vote: Link
Tomorrow: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails - Points: 38/48
charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2007 6:56:24 PM | message detail
Match XIV: Tails vs The Boss vs Vincent vs Zelda

Information

Name: Miles “Tails” Prower
Game/Series From: Sonic series
Past Contests: CB2k2, CB2k3, CB2k4
Wins: Viewtiful Joe (2k4)
Losses: Alucard (2k2), Auron (2k3), Dante (2k4)

Name: The Boss
Game/Series From: Metal Gear Solid 3
Past Contests: CB2k6
Wins: Celes (2k6)
Losses: Tifa (2k6)

Name: Vincent Valentine
Game/Series From: Final Fantasy VII
Past Contests: CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: Kerrigan (2k5), Dante (2k5), Squall (2k5), Ganondorf (2k6)
Losses: Crono (2k5), Sonic (2k6)

Name: Zelda
Game/Series From: The Legend of Zelda series
Past Contests: CB2k3, CB2k5, CB2k6
Wins: Lara Croft (2k3), Vivi (2k5), Carmen Sandiego (2k6), Terra (2k6), Aeris (2k6), Yuna (2k6)
Losses: Mega Man (2k3), Solid Snake (2k5), Samus (2k6)

Analysis

For the next three matches the characters involved have been to a previous contest. Will that make predicting much easier or harder? Today we have a match where the top two are easily known, but the order of the top two is still very debatable. This is what you get when you put two low mid-carders and two near elites in a poll.

The two characters that won’t be making the top two are obviously Tails and The Boss. Like I said Zelda and Vincent are near elites while Tails and The Boss are no where near that strength. To make things worse for those characters is I don’t see their match being that close. The Boss got thrashed by Tifa and if anything funny happened in that match the same will probably happen here with Vincent in the poll. It will be interesting to see if The Boss could lead Tails for the first few hours of the poll.

About 97% of the gurus have Zelda and Vincent coming in the top two, but whoever comes on top is pretty split. The majority has Vincent and for not a bad reason, ever since Magus fell he has been regarded as the strongest character after the noble nine. Zelda is no slouch either being in the most popular series she has been able to put away several characters, some being no slouches themselves. Between the two of them they have gone up against five out of the nine noble nine and have put up respectable numbers.

I’d have to go with Vincent being the favorite going into the match. His contest history is more impressive with him beating three near elites, one of them being Ganondorf. Ganondorf/Zelda has been a long debated match with Ganondorf usually coming on top. While still being on the topic about Ganondorf/Zelda they both do have a common opponent, Yuna. Ganondorf was able to get 61% on her while Zelda was only able to get 57%, of course some people believe Yuna to be stronger in 2k6 than 2k5 (cameo in KH2?), but it still puts Zelda at a disadvantage.

Zelda has one thing going for her and that’s Twilight Princess. While most of the site has already played/made their opinion on LoZ it is always good to have a hyped game release. So how much will Twilight Princess impact Zelda? Well if you take a look at Midna some would say she did terrible, but we as a board probably overestimated her. Compare her to Tingle and you see her being much stronger than him. I find it hard to believe that Zelda won’t get some kind of a boost, but how big the boost is can be debatable. Personally I think that boost puts her within striking distance of Vincent.

I think most people can agree that no matter what happens in this match Vincent is taking second next round thanks to Link. Ever since Midna’s and Bowser’s performance people have doubted Nintendo’s power in this format. No matter who wins they won’t get the win easily.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zelda > Vincent Valentine

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zelda - 32.26%, Vincent - 31.52%, Tails - 20.04%, The Boss - 16.18%

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Match 13: Link > Bidoof Points: 36/48
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 6:57:55 PM | message detail
But you said yourself, Claire is overrated in 2k2, and potentially underrated in 2k6. Her drop is nowhere near as drastic as you make it sound. I can't see Little Mac's value changing much from 2k2. In 2002, he was already about 15 years old. That and his virtual console release should be enough to put him above Amaratesersu.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 7:03:45 PM | message detail
right, because we should totally act like 2K2 is only different from today's contest because of the date and nothing else... it's not like the voter pool wasn't completely different or anything. nope, not at all.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 7:06:57 PM | message detail
My point is that Little Mac doesn't need much to come in second or third there. There are enough old farts like us that visit this site to put him over his competition

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:08:40 PM | message detail
rofl.. Agent J is barely getting over 10 votes now.
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Today: Link > Bidoof - Vote: Link
Tomorrow: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails - Points: 38/48
Charizard009 | Posted 9/15/2007 7:09:42 PM | message detail
....Bidoof is in the Character Battle. The world has officially gone mad.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/15/2007 7:14:54 PM | message detail
So Link will finish with over 100000 votes...in a 4 way format...


...My God he lucked out in the draw of this fodder...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
HaRRicH | Posted 9/15/2007 7:16:27 PM | message detail
But you said yourself, Claire is overrated in 2k2, and potentially underrated in 2k6. Her drop is nowhere near as drastic as you make it sound. I can't see Little Mac's value changing much from 2k2. In 2002, he was already about 15 years old. That and his virtual console release should be enough to put him above Amaratesersu.

'Twas a best-case scenario for Claire not dropping...and even if she didn't drop one bit from 2k2 to 2k6, do you want to avoid giving any credit to RE4 for getting the series back in the limelight? Little Mac -- even for appearing on the VC -- is having no limelight nor anywhere near the sales RE4 did. It's so far behind RE4 in that respect that LM being the star isn't enough to match that.

I'll give you that there's enough "old farts" to possibly win it...but there weren't so many around in 2k2 and the vote totals (for the first round) of 2k2 were typically about half of what we have now. If fifteen years wasn't already plenty old, try twenty now. He's still competing with another Nintendo character too, another boxer from probably the hottest boxing game here since PO and I bet more people here have played Wii Sports/Boxing than PO.


LM's at the bottom of the hill right now. Not that he's the bottom of the barrel, but he's got the longest distance to climb to steal second.
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Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:27:07 PM | message detail
Division 4: Round 1 - Match 14 – Tails vs. The Boss vs. Vincent Valentine vs. Zelda

Moltar’s Analysis

Tails
Game/Series Known From: Sonic
Seed in 2002: 11
Seed in 2003: 9
Seed in 2004: 12
Lost in 2002 to Alucard in Round 1
Lost in 2003 to Auron in Round 1
Lost in 2004 to Dante in Round 2

Tails never fails….except every year.

The Boss
Game/Series Known From: Metal Gear Solid
Seed in 2006: 4
Lost in 2006 to Tifa in Round 2

That cool woman from MGS3 is back!

Vincent
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy VII
Seed in 2005: 5
Seed in 2006: 5
Lost in 2005 to Crono in the Elite 8
Lost in 2006 to Sonic in Round 2

One of the strongest guys here steps up to the plate.

Zelda
Game/Series Known From: Legend of Zelda
Seed in 2003: 10
Seed in 2005: 5
Seed in 2006: 1
Lost in 2003 to Mega Man in Round 2
Lost in 2005 to Solid Snake in Round 2
Lost in 2006 to Samus in the Final 4

Doesn’t need to be rescued here.

What a match this is. Nothing here that’s too tough. Vincent and Zelda are leagues above Tails and The Boss in strength. I’m thinking Tails should take 3rd, and The Boss in last place, but who knows with the way MGS has been performing thus far.

The real question here is who takes first? Both Vincent and Zelda are pretty strong, and not too far from each other in strength.

First you have Vincent, who’s beaten Squall and Ganondorf, and put up excellent numbers on Crono and Sonic. He’s obviously proven he’s strong in these Contests. This format is a bit different, but I wouldn’t worry about Vincent in it. I mean, 3rd in the favorite FF7 character poll is good enough for me.

Then there is Zelda. She’s also done well in these Contests, even making it to the Final Four last year. With all the tough female competition around, she had to fight tooth and nail to get there. Zelda has the possibility of getting major Legend of Zelda backing, and she’s had Twilight Princess since last year.

So who takes first? I’m going with Vincent. He’s more of a favorite character that Zelda, and I also believe he slightly edges her out in pure strength.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Vincent > Zelda > Tails > The Boss

Moltar’s Prediction is: Vincent: 37% - Zelda: 32% - Tails: 16% - The Boss: 15%



Ultimaterializer’s Analysis

One of the few obvious matches we have in the first couple rounds of this bracket. Vincent and Zelda are locks to take the top two spots, as the other two characters are too far below them to make a game of things.

From there it comes down to who takes first place, but given that Ganondorf has been stronger than Zelda across the board in these things, Vincent > Zelda seems an easy pick. Remember the Vincent v Ganon match last year.

Ulti's Prediction:

Vincent [38.00%]
Zelda [35.00%]
Tails [15.00%]
The Boss [12.00%]



Heroic Mario’s Analysis

Vincent Valentine -- 40%
Zelda -- 32%
The Boss -- 15%
Tails -- 13%


After the Phoenix Wright/Bomberman craziness, two slows are much appreciated. This is one of the more obvious matches of the contest -- Vincent and Zelda unquestionably advance here. The only interesting bit is which one of them takes second, and which takes first. Some people are all high on that “Zeldafear,” but I’m not buying Zelda having nearly enough fans to propel her to first here. There’s only so far your namesake can carry you, especially against the fan favorite of Final Fantasy VII.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:27:32 PM | message detail
Vincent’s got a lot going for him in this match. Not only does he have a rockin’ picture, but he’s got both the casual appeal and the hardcore fans necessary to put him cleanly out ahead. Since Dirge of Cerberus (which wasn’t that bad, by the way !!), Vincent’s broken out into the limelight to become a bit more than just a cool looking optional character in FFVII -- although that never hindered him anyway. I think of all the non-noble nine characters, Vincent is definitely going to be the strongest in this format. He’s got all of the keys here to devastate his competition, a certain spiky headed mute included.

Zelda certainly isn’t a slouch, though. For whatever reason that escapes me, Zelda actually has tons of voters backing her every contest. It’s hard to imagine they actually like Zelda for what she is -- a damsel-in-distress. I think her namesake, and perhaps some minor confusion about “Zelda” being the main character of Zelda games, is what gives her a good deal of her strength. Sure, there’s Sheik to possibly gain her some fans, but I’m just not seeing it. Who calls Zelda one of their favorite characters, especially over someone like Vincent?

I remember hearing some talk earlier about the possibility of The Boss hurting Vincent a bit to let Zelda slip by, but I’m not buying that. The Boss and Tails are going to get votes from their hardcore fans, for sure, but it won’t be at the expense of Vincent, or even Zelda.

But yeah, give me the fan favorite from Final Fantasy VII over the damsel-in-distress from Zelda.

vincent 4 lief

Bracket: Vincent > Zelda
Vote: Vincent



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Today, we have a very compelling match that many people have been waiting for. While many of the matches so far maintained our interest due to second place battles between relatively weak characters, this one is special in that it features the two characters who many consider to be right behind the Noble 9 in strength. I am, of course, referring to Final Fantasy VII's Vincent Valentine and Zelda from the series which bares her name. These two power players are obviously moving on, and for once, it'll be a test of strength for first place rather than a test of who sucks less for second.

Let me first say that I have Zelda in my bracket. I have Zelda in my bracket, and, if given an opportunity to change that, I would. The Hylian Princess has a shot, yes, but it was a pick more from my fanboyish heart than my sleep deprived brain. As much as it pains me to admit, the goth guy has a few key advantages that Zelda simply doesn't. Let's run through them.

Zelda had a fantastic contest last year; there's no denying that. She destroyed the weaker competition, performed admirably against the Final Fantasy babes, and then outperformed Ganondorf by 4.5% against Samus, strengthening my argument that she is higher up on the Nintendo ladder than her nemesis. However, Vincent defeated Ganondorf outright with 52.5% of the vote. Zelda may SFF Ganon to a safe win in a direct match, but I'm not sure if she's that much stronger than him against non-company competition. Vincent's great win over someone with comparable strength makes him look very good. Also, apart from Zelda, Vincent is a huge fan favorite. Zelda is popular, liked by many, and has her name stamped on every cover, but Vincent has hoards of fanboys who won't budge come hell or high water. I'm not sure if Zelda has the same, but that insecurity alone doesn't make me feel too confident about my pick. Lastly, Vincent appears to have a picture advantage. I won't deny this (I might be feeling a bit better if we were graced with Twilight Princess or Brawl Zelda), but I'm unsure if it'll really make a noticeable difference.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:28:41 PM | message detail
All in all, while Zelda still has a reasonable shot, I feel Vincent simply has too many weapons under that goofy wardrobe of his, and they're made even more powerful in a format such as this one. Whatever, go Zelda! Oh, and The Boss and Tails are in this match as well. Believe it or not, The Boss may actually get my vote (she and Zelda, along with Jill Valentine and Samus, are my favorite gaming gals), but... there's nothing that really needs to be said about them. The spotlight belongs to the Nintendo and Square reps today.

Vincent Valentine - 37%
Zelda - 35%
Tails - 14%
The Boss - 14%



Lopen’s Analysis

I'm not sure if there's much debate to this match, but honestly, I really don't think there should be. Some people might be flip-flopping Zelda, but Vincent has generally looked better (and speaking of looking better, look at that crappy Zelda pic ahahaha...haha!) than Zelda in these contests, and Vincent has cred as clearly the third most popular guy in FFVII. He's got fanbase devotion, no doubt. Zelda? Well, let's just say I have reason to doubt.

Nintendo has always seemed more fickle when it comes to their characters. And man, how many people out there really say "Zelda is my favorite character," anybody? I'm just gonna say it right now... I expect many Nintendo characters are gonna collapse like it's Jenga and Master Chief just shot the tower. And Zelda is one of them I expect. Bowser did it to some degree, although he should probably be forgiven because of the meddling mushroom.

Of course, when I say "collapse" I mean it in a relative sense. They're not gonna... oh I dunno, start trailing Phoenix Wright for 30 minutes, but to some degree, yes! So Zelda should fall clearly below Vincent in this one, but not far enough that she's in danger from The Boss or Tails.

As for The Boss vs Tails? Tails has the advantage contest appearance wise. He also has the possibility that Vincent is gonna do something fishy with the Boss on his side. But, The Boss has a pretty rabid fanbase, it seems. Tails? I dunno. Somehow I don't think he'll hold up very well in this format. Like Zelda, it's rare that I'd need to pull out the expression "Tails fanboy/fangirl." So it's FF7/MGS fishiness vs my skepticality on Tails. Let's go with fishiness winning.

Lopen's Prediction:
Vincent Valentine - 36.88%
Zelda - 27.12%
Miles "Tails" Prower - 18.93%
The Boss - 17.07%



Karma Hunter’s Analysis

You'd think today's performance would have curbed my enthusiasm, eh?

(to be fair, it has *sigh*)

But look toward the future, I say. Gotta keep up a steady dose of optimism and faith that the right characters will win (IT MATTERS SO MUCH :O) so the battles continue, with one of our more high profile matches:

Zelda

Perhaps the most godawfully impressive contestant last contest, Zelda made the once universally considered stronger Ganon look like chicken feed in comparison. She begins facing off against the character that upended the Gerudo King...

Vincent Valentine

Fresh off his DoC boost and 48% on Sonic, Vincent was the consensus "Strongest NNer of Last Year", which must have been a shock to the otherwise higher statted Zelda (take THAT, blondie). He faces a character who opposes Ganon for the title of second-strongest Zelda character... and who is fresh off a TP boost.

The Boss

One of the characters wasted in this pack, Big Boss and Ocelot already proved she could have thrived in a debatable match. Look for her not to do much here, seeing as how the one reason for her doing poorly last year (FF/MGS SFF) will be amplified here.

Tails

And returning after a few off seasons is Tails, who gets stuck in a no-winner here as well! While the Sonic Boost will probably aid him, he doesn't have a chance in hell here.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:29:02 PM | message detail
So what's the call on this? Well, up until 24 hours ago I would have told you Zelda. Despite Zeldafear burning me once with Midna, despite her not being a "favorite" in the slightest, Zelda is ZELDA, and I have faith in the name.

...or did I? Whether it be something subconscious or nebulous like that, Zelda's picture is... ick, there. And Vincent may have the most badass picture he's received yet in this contest (which means a lot for him). Zelda didn't look very hurt with an icky picture against Aeris, though, but for some reason, something's gnawing at my sensibility here...

...and I'm gonna listen to it. Zelda pisses me off anyway, and I picked her in my bracket. Might as well pull an Ocelot here and go with one of my all-time favorites.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Vincent Valentine. FOR DIRGE BEST GAME EVER IMHO
Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Vincent Valentine with 35%, Zelda with 32%, The Boss with 18%, Tails with 15%

The Boss probably gets hurt a bit, but the format favors her and swings her back over Tails. ALSO VINCENT WINS OH YEAH SCREW YOU BRACKET

Upset Prediction: 45%

TEH ZELDAFEAR

IT BURNZ



Transience’s Analysis

WOO PHOENIX

augh bidoof

here's a match with two very obvious winners, but the order is in dispute. Vincent vs. Zelda would be one of great one-on-one contest matches -- there's five or six "near-elites" from Nintendo and Square, and these two are in that little class. Zelda went to town on the female bracket last year while Vincent beat down her supposedly stronger villain and put up a fantastic showing on Sonic. since last year, Twilight Princess has been released, so Zelda could be seeing a boost thanks to that. pre-contest, Zelda looked like the "safe" pick in my eyes. Vincent might have been a little bit stronger last year, but Twilight Princess would make up for that. plus, who dares go against Zelda -- not just the series, but the very namesake?

unfortunately, everything since then has gone the other way. Midna flopped pretty badly while Cloud kicked ass and took names. Vincent got a "badass" picture while Zelda got her OOT kiddie picture. people love to hate on that thing, though Zelda got it in 2005 vs. Snake and she did all right. granted, Snake had an even worse picture, but still, it's OOT. I think she'll be all right, but Vincent wins out there. "fan-favourites" seem to be doing great this contest, and Vincent is all over that.

but despite all that, I'm sticking with the princess. female bracket or not, she did beat the hell out of Aeris last year. Aeris sucked last year, but I can't see Vincent doing *that* much better. prove me wrong, Vincent. I also think The Boss will hamper Vincent more than Tails will hamper Zelda. I'm just not picking against Zelda -- call it "Zeldafear", it's a perfect term for my feelings, and I'm sticking with it until one of the big three flop. I expect Vincent to win, but I'll stick to my guns here. plus, I *always* pick against Vincent. it's contest tradition. and I'm always wrong.

Zeldafear's still there
Nintendo fans worry me
but I hate Vincent

transience's prediction: Zelda - 36.06%, Vincent - 35.58%, The Boss - 14.81%, Tails - 13.55%



Guest’s Analysis - Mac Arrowny

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2524

I figure that that poll is a good starting point for this analysis. Going by what we now know about Ganondorf in 2K3, Zelda and Ganondorf have likely always been very near to each other in the stats, and last year was no exception. So, in a straight match between Zelda and Vincent, in 2K6, Zelda most likely would have lost. But a number of things have changed since then to make it different this time.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:30:03 PM | message detail
The other main factor in Zelda’s favor is that she’s had a very big game since last contest: Twilight Princess. It absolutely dominated in the Game of the Year poll against far from shabby competition, and is most likely the strongest game released in the last five years. Zelda played a relatively small role in it, but

*TWILIGHT PRINCESS SPOILERS!!!* the role she did play was entirely awesome. Learning that you’d be fighting against boss Zelda was one of the best moments in the entire game, and the part where you were chasing Ganondorf with her on horseback was probably the best part of the final battle. *END SPOILERS*.

Unfortunately, Midna’s poor performance despite her relatively large performance in the game suggests that Twilight Princess may not have done as much as we thought. Of course, there are explanations for that (Midna’s ugly as sin, Zelda fans don’t like characters with personalities, Scorpion’s stronger than before, Kratos LFF’d Midna (k, probably kinda reaching there), etc.), but it’s still not a positive.

Nintendo’s been performing alright this contest, with only Peach/Bowser/Midna as true disappointments, but the first two were against other Nintendo characters who managed to impress themselves. Square has seen impressive performances from Axel, Rikku, and Auron, while Vaan, Kefka, Sephiroth, and Frog all disappointed, and Cloud performed right on target. The trend there looks like New Square doing well (except lol Vaan) and Old Square disappointing, but it’s hardly anything definitive so far.

Link’s performance today looks to be as impressive as expected, especially if cheating for Bidoof (and Edgeworth?) is taken into account, which is a definite positive for Zelda. However, Zelda’s match picture is…possibly the worst she could get. Vincent looks great, The Boss looks like The Boss, and Tails has the cute factor going on. This is the same picture Zelda got against Snake (Acid Snake, even), though with her body included. Looking at the stats, it seems like she did about as well as expected there (when Snake’s increased strength that year is taken into account), so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem, but it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Overall, this would be close in a one on one between Zelda and Vincent…but I expect The Boss’s presence here to be enough to win it decisively for Zelda.

Mac’s Prediction:
Zelda: 37.8%
Vincent: 36%
The Boss: 14%
Tails: 12.2%



Crew Consensus: The majority says Vincent > Zelda, but the opposite doesn't look too bad either.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2007 7:33:29 PM | message detail
I doubt Tails gets as low as 12-13%. he's at least get more than that.
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Today: Link > Bidoof - Vote: Link
Tomorrow: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails - Points: 38/48
NominateSerge | Posted 9/15/2007 7:34:08 PM | message detail
Vincent wins and it's not close.

And honestly, comparing Little Mac to Claire is a horrible comparison. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will rapidly deteriorate like it seems she has. I mean, the guy's already so old. What's a few more years going to do to him at this point? Plus, he's already fodder as it is.
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Vote for Serge.
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/15/2007 7:36:30 PM | message detail
Tails is going to SFF Zelda away from the win!

Book it!
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Owner of TWO sticky topics!
Pearl Code: 3952 3520 2488
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/15/2007 7:44:55 PM | message detail
o_O at 22:05 update for Agent J.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2007 7:46:33 PM | message detail
And Link has over 100k
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 13: Link > Bidoof Points: 36/48
Mumei | Posted 9/15/2007 7:46:56 PM | message detail
Now the next goal is to pass 102,509.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 7:48:55 PM | message detail
I still think that Matt has that. Little Mac has his old-school crowd and that should be enough to put him above Amatasersu.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2007 7:49:48 PM | message detail
Agent J had two five minute updates of 7%+.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
Tediz247 | Posted 9/15/2007 7:52:09 PM | message detail
What's special about 102,509? Is that what LoZ got against Civilization?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/15/2007 7:54:15 PM | message detail
It's what Zelda got against Carmen Sandiego. It'd be a character record. The overall record is the Legend of Zelda against...Metroid, I think.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
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