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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 484

Mumei | Posted 9/15/2007 11:41:06 AM | message detail
In Cloud / Link / Snake / Sephiroth, Link pulled down 43%. Cloud received 23%. Take out Sephiroth, replace him with Sonic.

Cloud does much, better, certainly. And Sonic may hurt Link slightly more than Sephiroth did, I suppose.

But I don't see Link going down enough or Cloud going up enough to make Link lose, especially when he has ever reason to be ~1 - 3% stronger now.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 11:42:43 AM | message detail
Mario/Shadow
Super Mario World/Sonic 2.


This is proof that something funny will happen with Sonic and Link.


No. For several reasons.

1. You cannot use a Mario vs Sonic match and say VOILA! LINK IS A MARIO CHARACTER!

2. In the second example, SMW buried Sonic 2. Dumptrucked.

3. Link has never been SFFed, and is the strongest character in the contest. If you're arguing that Sonic shares his fanbase, it means Sonic will get killed and Link will strengthen and kill Cloud even worse.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/15/2007 11:42:50 AM | message detail
Hot damn, Link is well on his way to breaking 70% after all.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:44:08 AM | message detail
You'll see. You'll all see....
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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 11:44:10 AM | message detail
'lol'
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 11:44:44 AM | message detail
Who got the last laugh when Ryu won easily?

I did, along with a good chunk of the rest of the stats topic. Ryu winning there wasn't a big surprise, and he only won by as much as he did because Mewtwo turned out stronger than most of us were expecting.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 11:45:00 AM | message detail
You'll see. You'll all see....

War13104 had Kefka beating Crono. He still sounds smarter than you. Sorry.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/15/2007 11:46:11 AM | message detail
War13104 had Kefka beating Crono. He still sounds smarter than you. Sorry.

That's about the coldest thing you've ever said. But it's true.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:46:48 AM | message detail
If you don't want to listen to my theories, fine. But don't you dare call me an idiot. Look at my spot on the leaderboard. On the guru. On the oracle. I'm not stupid. I'm doing better than anyone in this stats topics
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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 11:47:00 AM | message detail
3. Link has never been SFFed, and is the strongest character in the contest. If you're arguing that Sonic shares his fanbase, it means Sonic will get killed and Link will strengthen and kill Cloud even worse.

Wrong. If Link and Sonic share a fanbase, any vote that Sonic gets is basically a vote that Link doesn't get.

The only problem with fedor's little theory, is that Snake is more related to Cloud than Sonic is to Link.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 11:47:32 AM | message detail
You are aware that several of us are tied with you, right? <_<
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swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 11:49:02 AM | message detail
Also, you do realize that we've been pointing the flaws in your arguments out and you don't seem to recognize them.

Also, that line with War13104 is an old-school joke.
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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:49:25 AM | message detail
The only problem with fedor's little theory, is that Snake is more related to Cloud than Sonic is to Link.


Not really. Cloud got 11% of Snake's 20%, Link got 9%. Not a huge difference. But that doesn't make sense, Snake is already accounted for in my analysis

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Fc: 4768 3939 5325
Keno316 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:52:01 AM | message detail
...I'm all for this argument.


Even if it ends up being for naught (which honestly, knowing Link's power, it most likely will) At least it sparks a little uncertainty for an otherwise too predictable final match.


Link will still win in the end though.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 11:52:13 AM | message detail
Can someone post what creative posted earlier this contest about what exact percentages everyone got from the eliminated members of the battle royale?

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:53:41 AM | message detail
Cloud didn't even get 100% of Sephiroth's votes. Why would Link and Sonic have a closer connection than Cloud and Sephiroth?
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 39/48 -- T-92 (43 way)
Bracket: Link > Edgeworth -- Vote: Edgeworth
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/15/2007 11:53:43 AM | message detail
Also, that line with War13104 is an old-school joke.

I figured, but still.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/15/2007 11:53:45 AM | message detail
Look at my spot on the leaderboard. On the guru. On the oracle. I'm not stupid. I'm doing better than anyone in this stats topics

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/c04spr (Check #5)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/spr05 (Check #4)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/sum05 (Check #23)

Anyone is welcome to post here, but please don't act like you're something special when you haven't accomplished anything that hasn't been seen or done in this topic dozens of times before. We're calling you "fedor" for a reason; it's not a compliment.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 11:55:25 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Mumei | Posted 9/15/2007 11:56:40 AM | message detail
I think the problem with your argument is that you're starting with the Link / Snake / Cloud match that has 45 /20 / 35 and not with the Link / Cloud / Sephiroth / Snake match that is 43 / 23 / 16 / 16 (-ish).

Comparing the two, it seems pretty clear that taking out Sephiroth helps everyone a little, but helps Cloud the most (+12%).

But taking out Sephiroth and replacing him with Sonic wouldn't help Cloud quite as much - maybe 7 - 8%? And I seriously doubt that Link is hurt more than 3 - 5% by Sonic replacing Sephiroth - if at all.

I just don't think that your analysis makes much sense based on what we've seen.
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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived" - Sensei
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 11:56:55 AM | message detail
Don't be so mean to #1 on the leaderboard, right here!
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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 9/15/2007 11:58:46 AM | message detail
First off, congrats on doing so well, Hochi. However, I still gotta disagree: Link will win this contest, and no match indicates otherwise.

You gotta keep in mind that while Link has never lost on SFF, he has certainly looked worse due to it. For example, right now he's getting BOMBARDED by two other Nintendo characters, and thousands of bracket voters who want "their" character to get second.

Then again, if we want to use the first round as evidence, let's just wait until Cloud's match, eh? :P
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Ogre Battle saga fanboy, and hopeless supporter of Lans Tartare for CB2K8!
FFDragon | Posted 9/15/2007 11:58:53 AM | message detail
Oh god. fedor 2.0 is even worse than fedor.
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
The revenge was swift and sweet (Metal Gear Solid 2)
charmander6000 | Posted 9/15/2007 12:01:02 PM | message detail
Day 1
Link - 27.41%
Cloud - 23.71%
Sephiroth - 16.43%
Snake - 13.12%
Mario - 11.59%
Samus - 7.74%

Day 2
Link - 34.91% (+7.50)
Cloud - 24.27% (+0.56)
Sephiroth - 14.87% (-1.56)
Snake - 14.76% (+1.64)
Mario - 11.18% (-0.41)

Day 3
Link - 42.68% (+7.77)
Cloud - 23.70% (-0.57)
Snake - 16.83% (+2.07)
Sephiroth - 16.79% (+1.92)

Day 4
Link - 44.65% (+1.97)
Cloud - 35.71% (+12.01)
Snake - 19.64% (+2.81)

Day 5
Link - 53.93% (+9.28)
Cloud - 46.07% (+10.36)
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 13: Link > Bidoof Points: 36/48
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2007 12:02:57 PM | message detail
The sad thing is, I hope he's right, and Cloud wins. I'm that sick of Link winning these damn things.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:02:59 PM | message detail
How does he look worse due to it? He's smashing the field right now with 68% of the vote, it's not his fault if you guys wanted to overrated how much he was going to decimate everyone. We've seen how hard it is to get someone below 10%, yet Link is doing it to two people at once. Granted they're craptastic, but it's still something to note. I had Link winning today with 69% of the vote, and he's probably going to exceed that. Link is still going to win this contest, and this shouldn't be considered disappointing by any means.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:04:24 PM | message detail
...and for the record, I hate Link and hope he dies a thousand miserable deaths. WHY DO YOU PEOPLE LIKE HIM!?!! HE ALMOST SUCKS AS MUCH AS HIS GAMES!

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 12:05:06 PM | message detail
Hey, his games can be fun. I would say he sucks more than them. <_<
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 12:05:58 PM | message detail
Going from Link/Cloud/Snake, Link has about 10% on Cloud there.

Throw Sonic in, say he gets... 14%, he'll be pulling % from all 3 of them. Even if he takes the most away from Link, he would have to leave Snake and Cloud virtually untouched in order for Cloud to win.

Throw in the fact that since that match, Twilight Princess has come out, and Nintendo has increased its dominance on this site, this upset doesn't have a leg to stand on.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2007 12:06:00 PM | message detail
And I love Zelda games as much as the next guy, but Link losing to Cloud at the end would probably make this contest better than the 2003 one by so many leaps and bounds.

And if you disagree with that... well.. then you just aren't rooting for an exciting contest!
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/15/2007 12:06:08 PM | message detail
Link is the star of the greatest, most revered series in gaming history.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:06:30 PM | message detail
His games are fun if you ignore all the other adventure games that are better than Zelda. I'm not even a mainstream hater... I just don't get it!

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 12:06:31 PM | message detail
I love Zelda games, but Link is near the bottom of my rankings. Just never liked the guy.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/15/2007 12:06:35 PM | message detail
I don't think Link loses enough support to lose to Cloud with Snake also in it.
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Today: Link > Bidoof - Vote: Link
Tomorrow: Vincent > Zelda - Vote: Tails - Points: 38/48
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/15/2007 12:08:13 PM | message detail
From YoAriel33 Posted 9/15/2007 3:06:08 PM #081
Link is the star of the greatest, most revered series in gaming history.

...Isn't that Mario?
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2007 12:08:29 PM | message detail
Hell, I think Link is a badass! He's incredibly cool, and I mimicked that Sword motion EVERY TIME he did it in Twilight Princess.


It's not even about character anymore, it's about an exciting, unprecedented finish. Cloud winning at the end of this would be the most entertaining, exciting this to ever happen in this contest, I think. And I hope 4chan gets upset with Link because of this match and decides to rally against him every single match.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 12:08:42 PM | message detail
If it was Mega Man and Sonic instead of Snake and Sonic, Cloud would have an outside chance at it, but Snake being in that poll hurts Cloud way more than Sonic hurts Link, and Link already has a high enough advantage.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:08:47 PM | message detail
No, that's the Prince of Persia.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
swirIdude | Posted 9/15/2007 12:09:09 PM | message detail
...Isn't that Mario?

NO ITS CLOUD!

...The sad part is that someone out there believes it.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:09:20 PM | message detail
Hell, I think Link is a badass! He's incredibly cool, and I mimicked that Sword motion EVERY TIME he did it in Twilight Princess.

That's because you're a tool, not because Link is cool.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2007 12:09:59 PM | message detail
Because if Anonymous truly is what put Phoenix over yesterday, and is putting Bidoof over this much today....

If they were to lend their support to Cloud on the last day, then they could actually make the match worth talking about.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/15/2007 12:10:21 PM | message detail
Use of the word "tool" needs to stop, forever.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:11:01 PM | message detail
I usually refrain, but I made an exception for you.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/15/2007 12:12:27 PM | message detail
Also, regarding the topic at hand, Cloud picked up 71% of Sephiroth's votes in last year's Battle Royal. To suggest Sonic will hurt Link's percentage more than Sephiroth hurt Cloud's isn't very logical.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:13:03 PM | message detail
Don't bring logic into a fedor debate.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/15/2007 12:18:05 PM | message detail
Link would only have the *slightest* chance of losing if Ganondorf ended up in that final match, and the odds of it happening even then (never mind the odds of that actually happening) are not really worth discussing. He's worked his way up from an "embarrassing" percentage to a percentage I'm sure no one else in the field could muster here (sure I had him getting a lot more, but I continually keep overestimating percentages in this thing).
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/15/2007 12:19:18 PM | message detail
yes but what did quaarma hunter have that is all that matters

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/15/2007 12:19:46 PM | message detail
Link 90%'d Ganon

He'd need Mario or Samus to do enough damage. Sonic is independent enough that he'll suck away everyone's percent.

TuRtLe
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38/48 in the contest. Next pick: Link > Bidoof
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/15/2007 12:22:43 PM | message detail
Both Edgeworth and Agent J are actually performing under my predictions. Too bad I underestimated ****ing Bidoof by about 8%. But yeah, I agree with KH; given the big Bidoof rally, no other entrant could rack up this type of percentage.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
NominateSerge | Posted 9/15/2007 12:25:32 PM | message detail
and if MGS/FF7 SFF is to be believed, The Boss will be in for a world of pain.

If FFVII/MGS SFF is to be believed, Ocelot wouldn't have come in second in Cloud's fourpack. The Boss doesn't need any SFF to come in last place anyway. She's probably the weakest of the four.

Sonic is independent enough that he'll suck away everyone's percent.

Right conclusion, wrong argument, however. Sonic is independent from NO ONE. That's why he'll suck away everyone's percentage.
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Vote for Serge.
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