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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 479

transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 12:54:30 AM | message detail
put it this way - Karma Hunter told me tonight he'll vote for Phoenix over Big Boss.

Karma Hunter.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:55:30 AM | message detail
Let's wait for Edgeworth tomorrow to surmise how much Phoenix relies on name recognition.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:57:47 AM | message detail
I'm not questioning his fanbase; I'm questioning the size of it, or, at the very least, the size of the fanbase that's truly devoted.
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transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:00:06 AM | message detail
well, Bomberman > Big Boss, though you could use the whole "hardcore fanbase" argument if you wanted. I'm not buying Big Boss being as strong as some people are touting him though. then there's Mario, who is just a totally different kind of character than Phoenix. yeah, Phoenix is on a Nintendo console, but honestly I'd expect more overlap with Magus than I would Mario. if he can do this well with Magus in the poll (I don't think Magus sucking here is a coincidence -- what's up, Phoenix), I think he can do well with anyone.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:02:19 AM | message detail
All I'll say is I can't wait to see his fanbase truly tested. We saw it last year falter head-to-head against Gordon...but we know it's grown in size since then and this format helps the PW-characters show off their support.

So...let's see it. PW's doing great today, even if he manages to lose...but this doesn't put him in a reach-for-every-vote situation like I want to see him tested with. I wanna see Miles tomorrow with Link, Agent J, and the joke-Pokemon Bidoof (Jokemon? Make it trendy people). Assuming PW advances (still a big if), I want to see Phoenix with Mario, Magus, and the suddenly-impressive Big Boss. THOSE are the tests I want to see of his fanbase.


Right now I won't doubt the fanbase -- we've seen they're solid enough to lead Magus for twenty-five minutes -- but DS characters from GotY-bottom-barrel games against Nintendo-affiliated Noble Niners is an extreme test that I can't wait to see. I gotta see for myself that this fanbase is more than just talk.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:04:35 AM | message detail
Ha, then put Mario AND Magus in there...does Phoenix withstand both?

Perhaps with your logic, a better question would be if Magus can withstand both.....
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transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:10:42 AM | message detail
well, it depends of what you think of Mario. if you think Mario can get 45%+, Phoenix has a real chance there. if he gets under 40%, Magus probably moves on.

right now, I see it like this:

Mario - 41%
Magus - 24%
Phoenix - 19%
Big Boss - 16%

though I think Bomberman will end up being the representative here.. I just have bad feelings about Phoenix in the daytime. come on, Crash, suck up some day votes.

either way, I'm NOT doubting Phoenix's fanbase. I believe it's the most devoted fanbase we have. people aren't voting for Phoenix based on a picture or some such. this is just the perfect format for him.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:11:15 AM | message detail
oh, and if you like exciting matches, you HAVE to cheer for Phoenix here. he's just so unique.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/14/2007 1:12:29 AM | message detail
Yeah I mean I have Bomberman in my bracket and all, but I voted for Phoenix at Midnight and am starting to cheer for him.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:16:51 AM | message detail
I don't want to predict what Mario gets right now -- I wanna see how some other Noble Niners do in the second round before I delve much into that mess. I will say that BB impressed me enough to where I don't think he'll go down to 16%, but time'll tell on everything else.
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transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:23:09 AM | message detail
you think BB's fanbase is more devoted to him than Phoenix's? well, I guess I can't use reasoning to dissuade you there, but I definitely disagree.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:23:46 AM | message detail
god, that match needs to happen. three serious fanbases and Mario.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 1:29:55 AM | message detail
It seems like a lock right now - 1550 vote lead already. If Phoenix can bungle the day vote that badly, it's practically an free ticket to doubt his fanbase. Regardless, while I might still be skeptical about his fanbase's size, I don't doubt his most loyal fans' devotion. It probably won't be that close in the end, but if it is, the Phoenix hardcore will pull a Frog no problem.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 1:30:11 AM | message detail
an free. lolo
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:32:10 AM | message detail
Oh, I dunno about moreso...but seeing how little BB faltered to Mario+Pac+Wander compared to how he did against Auron certainly leads me to believe his fanbase is devout. I'm thinking most people who beat MGS3 are going to treat BB as a sort of proxy as you-know-who. That's no knock on PW's fanbase, but if many people have beat either version of MGS3 then they will be another very difficult pack to sway. Throw in CT's fanbase is considered to be solid and Magus resisted SFF against Crono...

...next round could actually get really crazy. No promises, but it very well could.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 1:33:58 AM | message detail
God, and I was looking at the wrong lead, too. Please excuse my crapiness tonight, gentlemen. I am crappy.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
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transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:36:27 AM | message detail
It seems like a lock right now - 1550 vote lead already. If Phoenix can bungle the day vote that badly, it's practically an free ticket to doubt his fanbase. Regardless, while I might still be skeptical about his fanbase's size, I don't doubt his most loyal fans' devotion. It probably won't be that close in the end, but if it is, the Phoenix hardcore will pull a Frog no problem.

yeah, agreed. but that's just the thing - Frog has a "loyal fanbase", or so we're supposed to think, and he still bled like hell in the day. I don't think you can look at trends and determine how dedicated someone is. hell, Phoenix has the single strongest opening vote in contest history. THAT'S dedication, yo.

as for Big Boss, he went up against Mario, a SFF'd to hell Pac-Man and a guy without a name. let's hold off before we call 23% or whatever he got impressive. that's a pretty pathetic fourpack outside of Mario. half of those Boss votes could have been Not Mario votes just as quickly as Phoenix's votes could be "uhhh I pick you" votes.

Mario's fourpack is definitely weaker on average than this one.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:36:40 AM | message detail
You're golden regardless, no worries.





...but don't let it happen again.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:45:14 AM | message detail
BB probably gained a bit from MGS3:S since 2k5, for what it's worth, and it's even worth mentioning that SotC became a pretty popular game (though I know the case with Wander and that it finished behind DQ8 in the PS2-GotY). Not calling for anything fishy, but it does make BB look a bit tougher for me.



If I wanted to over-glorify his four-pack, I could say he nearly got a quarter of the votes against two icons and the star of SotC...and in BB's best role, you don't even find out who he is until you beat the game! I'm not going to argue like that, but after Revolver got 17% against Cloud and BB got ~28% against Auron, I am still mighty impressed by what he did.

Just a thought though: we've talked about FF7 > MGS, Seph > Liquid, and even Cloud > Revolver as FF/MGS SFF...and even Solid > Sora or Solid > Squall as MGS/Square SFF. Would anybody consider potential SFF in Auron/BB?
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:50:33 AM | message detail
I'm impressed by what he did too, but I'm not considering him over Magus like creative seems to want to do. no way, never.

Auron/Boss SFF? certainly nothing you could prove. besides, the higher you boost him, the closer he gets to Ocelot, and I don't think I've ever heard anyone argue that one.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 1:50:47 AM | message detail
Wow Crash. Cutting both Bomberman and Phoenix and finally getting 17%.

He seems to increase at the expense of Phoenix too. -_-
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 1:51:33 AM | message detail
hey, Crash won a second place update there. woo.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:53:45 AM | message detail
I actually did once upon a time. I used to argue Ocelot gets the large majority of his love from MGS3, and that it would falter to BB since he's the lead character and he works as a proxy as well.

I don't anymore, but it'd be a fun upset I might take if the chance ever arises.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 1:54:28 AM | message detail
In the subject of FF/MGS SFF, there's also Tifa/Boss to consider. What effect does The Boss have in the Vincent/Zelda match?
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:56:47 AM | message detail
If Tifa SFF'd The Boss, Vincent will too and that'll only ensure she gets last place. It might also give Vincent a small edge against Zelda if our new theory that needs to get a decent name is applicable. That said...I'm still voting for The Boss.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 1:57:01 AM | message detail
Now Crash has an update over Magus too. >_>
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linkhatesganon | Posted 9/14/2007 1:58:19 AM | message detail
As disappointing as both Magus and Frog are doing, it seems very likely that Vincent takes 2nd spot at round 3 rather than Crono! yay!
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 1:59:43 AM | message detail
Argh...finally voted.

Bomberman.



I've not seen a match be decided by one vote yet !! Lay off me.....
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Lopen | Posted 9/14/2007 2:00:23 AM | message detail
Hmmm. Well, for a while I was like "aw crap, no chance for Bomberman"

Now I look at the updater and see that Phoenix got over half of his lead in the first 45 minutes, so maybe Bomberman has a good chance yet. And man, Magus... that's pretty laughable. 30 minutes PW had the lead on ya. And you're barely winning with 32%? Ridiculous.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 2:00:30 AM | message detail
haha, vote for who you want.

...but know that everybody here hates you.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 2:01:36 AM | message detail
Yeah, Crono doesn't look to be in a good position come Round Three. Link and Zero are both big fan-favorites that really established themselves on the SNES, and Vincent's a really loved FF7 character who could get 45% on Crono pre-DoC. Crono is in a very dangerous place.
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 2:02:01 AM | message detail
ha, Crash fell off the damn earth that time.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 2:02:31 AM | message detail
Hate me while you can, you can't hate me forever!
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 2:03:22 AM | message detail
do not question a Phoenix Wright fan's loyalty!
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Lopen | Posted 9/14/2007 2:04:47 AM | message detail
Don't worry, HaRRicH, I don't hate ya. Bomberman power!
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transience | Posted 9/14/2007 2:05:26 AM | message detail
okay, gonna go to bed. but first, Phoenix Wright gained about 75 votes that hour and the morning vote is coming very soon. if Phoenix gets blitzed by it, I'd pretty much call it for Bomberman. 1000 votes really isn't all that much to have to make up in the daytime if this goes like one would expect it.

...if this wasn't Magus in the poll, I'd have a lot more faith in Phoenix.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 2:06:08 AM | message detail
*high-fives the crazy man* =P

Okay, must rest now. Gotta get my spirit-sleep so I can be ready for UT/Florida this weekend.....
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/14/2007 2:18:06 AM | message detail
Woohoo, European and African after-school votes are coming for Crash as expected!! ^_^
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 2:23:29 AM | message detail
O_O @ Bomberman's update. He cut Magus and cut 17 from Phoenix. -_-

Dammit Phoenix. Hold it!
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/14/2007 2:27:12 AM | message detail
It isn't anywhere after school in europe, man.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/14/2007 2:28:08 AM | message detail
Bomberman cuts into Magus and Phoenix leads again.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/14/2007 2:28:46 AM | message detail
LOL, i saw wrongly, forget about it.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 2:31:09 AM | message detail
Now Phoenix is cutting Magus. Sheesh, Magus is hanging with all 3 of them and the morning vote hasn't started yet!
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/14/2007 2:32:22 AM | message detail
Lol crash above bomberman
:(
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/14/2007 2:34:24 AM | message detail
Some Russians already out of school... and maybe I underestimated the number of Crash fans in Asia... Anyway, Crash will still do pretty well for the next few hours, unless Americans also favour Crash!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
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ShatteredElysium | Posted 9/14/2007 2:38:16 AM | message detail
I don't know if this is even logical in the slightest (damn you hangover!) but is it possible that Phoenix is rSFF'ing Magus to an extent? I mean I know my vote would have gone to Magus had Phoenix not been in the poll. Magus is one of those classic cult characters but most of the people who like him will also like Phoenix Wright games in my opinion.

I'm probably wrong but meh, worth a shot as an excuse to how bad Magus is performing.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 2:39:04 AM | message detail
22 vote cut by Bomberman and Crash beat Phoenix too. The morning vote is probably starting soon. It isn't gonna be pretty.
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JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/14/2007 2:41:29 AM | message detail
Magus is one of those classic cult characters but most of the people who like him will also like Phoenix Wright games in my opinion.

Don't really think so. I do think most of the B8ers here love both PW and Magus but our board liking hardly reflect that of the casual.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 2:42:46 AM | message detail
>_<

Now that was an unexpected boost/drop off. I'm going to bed before the way these 4 keep fluctuating up and down keep me up.
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Finally a damn bracket!
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ffmasterjose | Posted 9/14/2007 2:56:07 AM | message detail
Division 3 has not been kind to my bracket, and unless Bomberman overtakes Phoenix Wright, my cold streak will continue.
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