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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 479

greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:29:16 PM | message detail
Wow, I can't believe Phoenix is on his way to actually winning a match!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/13/2007 11:31:15 PM | message detail
Phoenix will lose the day vote so bad.
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Feel my truth.
greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:32:06 PM | message detail
If Phoenix keeps going, it won't matter.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/13/2007 11:33:45 PM | message detail
1000 is just a stone's throw away!

If Phoenix can break a lead 1000, I'm almost certain he'll make it.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2007 11:34:30 PM | message detail
I'm not. after seeing Frog drop the ball, if Phoenix drops anywhere near like that, Bomberman at least comes back to tie him up.
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Today: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario
Tomorrow: Magus > Bomberman - Vote: Bomberman - Points: 32/40
greatone10 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:35:36 PM | message detail
Phoenix may be bad with the day vote, but a vote swing like that is going to need someone really good with the day vote to do it, and Bomberman ain't no Axel.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:36:21 PM | message detail
Bomberman is no KH character. If Phoenix's lead passes 1,500, I'd feel safe with him.
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2007 11:36:55 PM | message detail
true. but Crash isn't going to do much.
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Today: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario
Tomorrow: Magus > Bomberman - Vote: Bomberman - Points: 32/40
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2007 11:37:07 PM | message detail
Phoenix has yet to have an update under 100 votes. He'll probably get one soon though.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/13/2007 11:40:59 PM | message detail
Almost there!

Phoenix doesn't take a huge dive during the day, actually, but he does weaken.

And Bomberman isn't exactly a casual friendly, AND he has to share with Crash, who is too far behind to do anything but will probably take the day vote anyway.
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He was stuck by lightning and became insane.don't mind him.-hiei on me.
Sound advice.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/13/2007 11:41:28 PM | message detail
"=P I got the feeling Phoenix Wright would do WORSE in a 4-way poll..."

Sorry Haste, but that's just so backwards I can't help but scoff. He's the sort of character that does better in a wider field because his fanbase isn't easily persuaded to vote for someone else.

I'm a bit surprised at the number of peopel that didn't pick Magus > PW and feel confident enough in it to not look twice.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:44:07 PM | message detail
Admittedly, I am worried about Phoenix's ability to hold on to this lead. The trends of this match are so weird (seriously, WTF Crash as a night vote character).
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 9/13/2007 11:49:46 PM | message detail
Crash's primetime was about 10 years ago, the people that liked him then aren't kids now. And the kids now, well, they are probably all aware of how much the new Crash games suck. Really, none of these characters are big day-vote guys, though Bomberman and Crash seem like they'd still be the ones to gain then.
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You do not have the right to never be offended.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2007 11:50:08 PM | message detail
Anyone think that Magus might actually fall under 30% with the afterschool vote?
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Finally a damn bracket!
Draco1214 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:50:49 PM | message detail
I doubt it. Magus still has the rest of the night ahead of him to gain and his day vote isn't quite that bad.
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/13/2007 11:51:02 PM | message detail
might? he will.
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Today: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario
Tomorrow: Magus > Bomberman - Vote: Bomberman - Points: 32/40
transcience | Posted 9/13/2007 11:51:29 PM | message detail
1000
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:52:00 PM | message detail
Let's break down Phoenix/Gordon by the... segment. It was a school day.

0:00-1:00 (early vote)- Gordon with 52.80%
1:00-6:00 (night vote) - Gordon with 56.05%
6:00-9:00 (morning vote)- Gordon with 57.72%
9:00-15:00 (day vote/extended night vote) - Gordon with 60.25%
15:00-20:00 (afterschool vote) -Gordon with 58.91%
20:00-24:00 (late day vote/early night vote) - Gordon with 60.00%

Bomberman only gained a small day vote over Squall, so hopefully he's not too much more threatening than Gordon Freeman with it... or maybe Phoenix has improved with the day vote this year, if we're lucky.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2007 11:52:07 PM | message detail
1000 for Phoenix!
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Finally a damn bracket!
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:52:23 PM | message detail
his day vote isn't quite that bad.

He is almost as weak as Frog and Kefka.
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:54:25 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
transcience | Posted 9/13/2007 11:54:25 PM | message detail
does anybody have KOS-MOS/Crash 15 minute updates, by chance? (TRE?)
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:55:16 PM | message detail
I know that KOS-MOS had over 65% early on, so I think Crash got the day vote. It makes sense he would, too.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:57:15 PM | message detail
To make it clearer:

I thought whole-heartedly that PW would do well in a 4-way poll before the contest, but then I noticed that KOS-MOS and ToS characters (maybe Kefka, too) seemed to suffer from the format... and Phoenix seems more in their field.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Warsola | Posted 9/13/2007 11:57:28 PM | message detail
I don't know if it counts, but Crash only lost 3% to Master Chief's day vote. That has to count for something, right? >_>
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Gaddswell | Posted 9/13/2007 11:57:39 PM | message detail
Phoenix cut Magus!
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Finally a damn bracket!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2007 11:57:47 PM | message detail
I missed a few hundred posts; does anyone really think Big Boss goes into the next round as the favorite?
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 12:01:36 AM | message detail
no.

though if Phoenix makes it, who knows? I have no idea how that vote splits. if that happens, it could be my most anticipated match of the contest by far.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
voltch | Posted 9/14/2007 12:03:26 AM | message detail
i just had a thought.
is it possible for snake to get K.O early in the contest once sprite rounds arrive?
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 12:03:40 AM | message detail
Phoenix in Round 3!

BELIEVE
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Finally a damn bracket!
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 12:06:46 AM | message detail
Phoenix is really doing well now. it's weird how he stalled for like 20-30 minutes hard and then just picked up as if nothing had happened...

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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:11:07 AM | message detail
No way should Big Boss be the favorite... I really don't think Big Boss could get 30-ish percent in this poll. A shot for next round? I guess so, though it'd still be a massive upset. At the very least those BB pickers next round don't look so crazy anymore.

Hour - Bomberman/Crash/Phoenix/Magus
0:00-1:00 - 23.18%/15.97%/29.21%/31.64%
1:00-2:00 - 23.12%/17.22%/25.65%/34.11%
2:00-3:00 - 23.08%/17.34%/25.82%/33.76%

Phoenix slowed down after the early vote, but he hasn't really slowed down further. You know what's sad, though? Magus can't even double Crash at this rate.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:15:57 AM | message detail
The fact that Phoenix has 27.5% tells me many of his voters (many more than I had anticipated, unless he absolutely tanks during the day) have never even played his games. This, coupled with the fact that he's DS exclusive, gives me a feeling that he'll crumble against Mario.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 9/14/2007 12:16:45 AM | message detail
magus cannot lose next the round crono beat moario before why could magus lose to phoenix or big bossy
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:19:38 AM | message detail
magus cannot lose to knuckles mario beat crono before and magus beat Ganon too magus just won't lose to knuckles
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Proud Supporter of Solid Snake, Dante and Ryu.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/14/2007 12:19:53 AM | message detail
...I...o.o

*looks at poll result*

...

...

LOL, MAGUS
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"NOT MY DAUGHTER, YOU *****!" - Molly Weasley, Deathly Hallows
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 9/14/2007 12:21:16 AM | message detail
then I noticed that KOS-MOS and ToS characters (maybe Kefka, too) seemed to suffer from the format...

KOS-MOS got 2nd place and that was pretty much what was expected from her. Diablo and Arthas may have weakened each other, but I don't think you could conclusively say KOS-MOS was being hurt by the format. Kratos didn't do too badly either. Zelos bombed but we don't know how strong he's supposed to be.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 12:23:16 AM | message detail
The fact that Phoenix has 27.5% tells me many of his voters (many more than I had anticipated, unless he absolutely tanks during the day) have never even played his games. This, coupled with the fact that he's DS exclusive, gives me a feeling that he'll crumble against Mario.

no way. I mean, it's possible, but...

let's see what Edgeworth does tomorrow. I think of Edgeworth as being more indicative of the PW games as opposed to the fad. I'm not sure if Edgeworth is as well-known as Phoenix is to the casual person who hasn't played PW.

if Edgeworth breaks 15% tomorrow, I'll say Phoenix is absolutely legit. and I don't think they're abandoning Phoenix Wright for Mario -- no way. PW fans will not abandon him for anybody. trust me on this.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Keno316 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:43:51 AM | message detail
22

18

15

30


...the votes per update total on that one didn't even sum up to 100. Jesus!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants*
Keno316 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:43:58 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 12:45:00 AM | message detail
-_-

What just happened?
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Finally a damn bracket!
greatone10 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:46:13 AM | message detail
The site was getting maintenance errors for me.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:46:27 AM | message detail
lol the site is dying
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Save the cheerleader, save the world. o_0
The Ohio State University: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 12:46:35 AM | message detail
Same. I wonder why.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Warsola | Posted 9/14/2007 12:48:51 AM | message detail
Because Phoenix inherited Gordon's genes, and the site is trying to protect the universe on instinct.
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
ejm5446 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:49:59 AM | message detail
So far, the closest match in terms of the distance between 1st and 4th is Agent 47/Kratos Aurion/Midna/Scorpion: 19.08%
Gaddswell | Posted 9/14/2007 12:50:17 AM | message detail
It seemed to have helped Phoenix a bit. After that 15, he managed 65 and 53 while Bomberman only managed 22, 44 and 33.
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Finally a damn bracket!
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:51:06 AM | message detail
PW fans will not abandon him for anybody. trust me on this.

Sure, but what percentage of this 27%+ is comprised of true fans, and how many are joke voting Phoenix because they don't have a viable alternative? In his next match, he'll go up against someone about ten times as appealing as Bomberman and Crash, and the Metal Gear fanbase will get thrown in there as well. While I can't say I'll be surprised if he still manages to do well, I will be very impressed.
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yoblazer33: NO LIMITZ
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/14/2007 12:52:18 AM | message detail
I find it amazing that Magus of all characters will probably win with the lowest percentage of the vote so far this contest... maybe even for the whole round. Yoshi had the lowest winning percentage until today, by the way.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
transcience | Posted 9/14/2007 12:53:26 AM | message detail
are you seriously questioning Phoenix's fanbase? you don't want to go there, trust me! I expect him to get about 20% should he advance. maybe a little bit less, but that's quite respectable considering the competition.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
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