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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 477

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2007 8:24:10 AM | message detail
Heh, not even a full page filled up in the stats topic since last night.

You know it's a boring match when....

TuRtLe
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34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/13/2007 8:40:51 AM | message detail
Not only has Big Boss had Portable Ops since his last appearance, he's also had Subsistence, which was one of the factors in Snake's boost last year.

Anyone know how well Subsistence sold?
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MnMZero | Posted 9/13/2007 8:42:50 AM | message detail
Dunno, but all that matters is the one sale that was the most important to me!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2007 8:44:47 AM | message detail
I knew mnm was the driving force behind these contests
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Starion | Posted 9/13/2007 8:50:01 AM | message detail
Chances are, Mario's going to kill the rest once the after-school votes kick in. Do you think he can break 60% with it?
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 8:51:01 AM | message detail
It's possible, but I think 59% is a more reasonable goal for Mario.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2007 8:54:07 AM | message detail
Man, this is quite a performance from Big Boss. Considering Ocelot is almost certainly stronger, it makes it seem like Clod really SFF'd the heck out of his competition.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/13/2007 8:54:42 AM | message detail
...I won't even bother deleting it.

CLOD4LIFE
The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/13/2007 8:55:25 AM | message detail
Proud Clod
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/13/2007 8:56:02 AM | message detail
Clod would've broken 90% in his match don't demean him like that
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/13/2007 9:05:55 AM | message detail
I'd expect both Pac-Man and Mario to go up with the after school vote, at the expensive of BB and Wander.

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/13/2007 10:44:53 AM | message detail
This match sucks. Tomorrow's match sucks. Let's skip to Link/Bidoof plz.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/13/2007 10:47:16 AM | message detail
I'm really looking forward to the next two days as it involves PW characters. That is all.

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swirIdude | Posted 9/13/2007 10:48:45 AM | message detail
It's a shame that everyone hasn't experience PW3 yet, Phoenix and Egdey couldn't lose with that support.
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DBZFIGHTERS | Posted 9/13/2007 10:55:10 AM | message detail
Does anyone know how much would Link have to score in his match to remain in the dominant position over Cloud and Sephiroth?

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swirIdude | Posted 9/13/2007 10:56:33 AM | message detail
It's too hard to say, since Link's opponents are insanely weak. If he goes under 80% there's a problem.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/13/2007 10:57:22 AM | message detail
hey moltar get ready to ass plummet in the team oracle aww yeah my picks

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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/13/2007 10:58:25 AM | message detail
No match this contest has gone according to plan guyz

It's awesome.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/13/2007 11:00:22 AM | message detail
No match this contest has gone according to plan guyz

This one has. Well Wander's closer than we thought but not by much.
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*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win* ~Leonhart
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/13/2007 11:01:25 AM | message detail
Actually tomorrow's match has potential. Crash, Bomber, and Phoenix have around the same strength, I wager.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/13/2007 11:51:30 AM | message detail
This one has. Well Wander's closer than we thought but not by much.

Hasn't Big Boss done better than expected by most people?
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/13/2007 12:38:48 PM | message detail
80%? Link could barely break 70% and I wouldn't feel bad about his chances, especially after last year. On top of that, AiAi was able to get 9% against Link in 2k3, and -- though he's now stronger than ever -- I doubt Bidoof or Miles are weaker than AiAi. Who knows about Agent J, and Link does have SFF-ability...but as is, I still wouldn't bet on Link breaking 80% and certainly wouldn't think it'd be a problem if he fell shy of it. I think he'll land over 75%, but I'd still have faith in him winning the contest if he "only" broke 70%.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
H__RR____H | Posted 9/13/2007 12:40:45 PM | message detail
Yeah, BB has whipped some ass for today...though I assume he's still got some dropping to do.

Not like he's going to take second next round, but there's a real good chance he beats Bomberman or Phoenix for third now.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 12:43:22 PM | message detail
Well, this match is going according to expectations in terms of overall results, but in percentage distribution, it's not what I expected. Big Boss beating Pac-Man and Wander combined? Wander getting close to Pac-Man and being near 10%? SotC fans must be more astute than the average fan to even know who that was in the match picture.

But Big Boss is getting more here than he's expected to get on Mario one-on-one (I'm surprised EC isn't using this fact to hype Samus!!), though he might be pushing that number toward the end. Still, I'm well pleased to see the dedication of the MGS fanbase! It makes me feel better about having Alucard > Liquid in my bracket.

And for all of the Midna/Ness discussion before, I'm not so sure Ness does much better if you throw him in place of Midna. I think Scorpion would have still won easily. Not sure what the percentages would've been, but to see him win easily would not surprise me in the least. Remember that this format isn't perfectly indicative of individual strength. I just have a hard time seeing Ness having a hardcore enough fanbase to beat Alucard AND Liquid, both of whom he'd struggle to beat one-on-one, I think. Tough to say though. I just think that Ness doesn't have hardcore support here outside of Earthbound. Sure, Super Smash Brothers fans are hardcore about the games, but what about the characters themselves? I'm not so sure, but we shall see.

Also, #3 and #4 on the leaderboard represent! If Magus > Bomberman happens tomorrow, I might be #1 and #2!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 12:44:38 PM | message detail
Also, this isn't the performance Mario needs if he wants to top Sephiroth later on. Sure, he's going to keep on rising, but against this crap of a fourpack he's got, he'd need 60%+ to make me even consider Mario > Sephiroth later on.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/13/2007 12:54:55 PM | message detail
For having seen Scorpion = Ness in 2k4, the Nintendo Boost happen, and knowing at least one part of Ness's fanbase is hardcore about him while the rest of his fanbase comes from a far more popular series than Scorpion's only series, I don't see why Ness only doing mildly better than Midna if he took her place is being considered. I wouldn't promise Ness beats Scorpion in this format, but I'd certainly take it to happen. Normal strength has them on even terms and this format would presumably favor Ness more than Scorpion. Ness wouldn't have done as well as Scorpion if he took Scorpion's place thanks to Midna, but I think Ness would have outdone Scorpion if he took Midna's place.


Ness's real four-pack is still completely up for grabs, but I think the poll having three mainly-PS1 characters can only help Ness.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 12:59:33 PM | message detail
You people need to stop this PSX "SFF" stuff! It's nonsense! You've got characters from four of the most popular series on GameFAQs. The overlap is going to be there for ALL of them. Ness isn't at a supreme advantage here.

Normal strength has them on even terms and this format would presumably favor Ness more than Scorpion.

Explain to me why. Because he's Nintendo? I honestly don't see Smash fans being THAT loyal to him, and I believe fighting game fans ARE loyal. I don't see the advantage Ness has in this format over Scorpion. Personally, I don't think you can draw the conclusion of Ness > Midna because of a fourway poll. You could draw all sorts of ridiculous conclusions from this format if you take it all at face value.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/13/2007 1:06:25 PM | message detail
Eh, with the Pac-Man SFF, I don't think Mario's overall percentage means much today. It's just his relation to Big Boss that I'm looking at, and it's not pretty (even if he does pick up a couple points as the day goes on).
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 1:07:14 PM | message detail
Also, I don't like this "Midna only had to be twice as strong as Tingle to beat Scorpion!" stuff. You can't apply transitivity here. It just ain't gonna work, as we've already seen in this format. There are too many variables to consider. Just because Midna got whomped doesn't mean she's fodder. She may well be, but it doesn't mean that. At the very least, I don't think Scorpion beats her as badly as their match implies, hence why I think he'd still win easily even with Ness in the poll.
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rammtay | Posted 9/13/2007 1:07:57 PM | message detail
what game's wander from.

in before Resident Evil Gaiden
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Dekar TKB | Posted 9/13/2007 1:08:42 PM | message detail
Shadow of the Colossus
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MnMZero | Posted 9/13/2007 1:09:54 PM | message detail
I honestly don't see Smash fans being THAT loyal to him, and I believe fighting game fans ARE loyal.

BUT SMASH BROS IS A FIGHTING GAME!!! OMFG N00B!
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 1:10:55 PM | message detail
LOL Only a n00b would say Smash Brothers is a fighting game! What a loser!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/13/2007 1:12:46 PM | message detail
I never understood why people thought Wander would get like below 5%. Sure its possible not to even know his name, but he's not Tanner.

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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 1:13:47 PM | message detail
Because of the fact that it's very easy not to know his name, the game isn't identified on the poll, AND that picture is HORRIBLE. I could easily see someone not realizing that it was the SotC guy.
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BDawg | Posted 9/13/2007 1:17:01 PM | message detail
If Big Boss is doing this then I could drink some MGS Kool Aid and believe Liquid>Alucard hype. But really I'd pick that four pack to be the closest in the entire bracket, top to bottom. Zidane is generally the consensus "loser" and even he should draw some Square voters. There's certainly no juggernaut, I could see first being around 30% and last being a little short of 20%.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/13/2007 1:33:36 PM | message detail
You people need to stop this PSX "SFF" stuff! It's nonsense! You've got characters from four of the most popular series on GameFAQs. The overlap is going to be there for ALL of them. Ness isn't at a supreme advantage here.

Not really SFF, just that if you weren't crazy about the PS1 then that most likely takes Zidane completely out of the picture while hurting both Alucard and Liquid since that's what they're mainly known on. If you weren't crazy about the N64, that probably hurts Ness like the above hurt Alucard or Liquid while those two and Zidane still fight it out from there. There won't be tons and tons of people like this, I know, and as you said it's not a supreme advantage...but that's still an advantage to consider for a heated four-pack.


Explain to me why. Because he's Nintendo?

Because of Earthbound. Being Nintendo certainly doesn't hurt when the other three are PS1-based, but it's also unproven for this format...so I'm not really trying to argue off of that. I'm just saying we KNOW that EB has a rock-solid segment here, and that will stick around and will help him in this format.


I honestly don't see Smash fans being THAT loyal to him, and I believe fighting game fans ARE loyal.

It's already been joked about...but SSB is a fighting series that's as popular as ever right now. Hell, we saw that it dominated the 3D-fighting-poll as hard (maybe even harder?) as Mario Kart dominated the racing-poll and it prevented being doubled by SMB last year...that says something about being loyal, THEN throw in how hyped SSBB is right now. That loyalty doesn't necessarily go to Ness, but given that he's one of the more favored in the series and that he was arguably the most favored in SSB, that has to say SOMETHING.


Personally, I don't think you can draw the conclusion of Ness > Midna because of a fourway poll. You could draw all sorts of ridiculous conclusions from this format if you take it all at face value.

True about ridiculous conclusions...but what do you want to call into question about Scorpion = Ness in 2k4 or Midna's poor appearance afew days ago that would make Midna > Ness reasonable? As far as I'm concerned, Ness > Midna is far from ridiculous. Ness's match may completely change my mind on this, but until I see it I'll have a hard time believing it.
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voltch | Posted 9/13/2007 1:34:40 PM | message detail
actually how did tanner prove to be so weak?
i thought he'd be a weaker max payne but not that rubbish against a weak snake.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/13/2007 1:39:41 PM | message detail
Oh, I never said Ness > Midna was ridiculous. I just said you can't draw that definitive conclusion from Midna's fourpack.

I'm just saying we KNOW that EB has a rock-solid segment here, and that will stick around and will help him in this format.

Earthbound really hasn't been worth that much in the past. It's part of his intrinsic strength as it is. Yeah, it's what pushes him from fodder to low midcarder, but I don't consider it an X-factor here.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/13/2007 1:54:24 PM | message detail
It worked well enough to get EB be one of the reasons to discredit the Top 100 List. It seeded very well given the nomination form for the Game Contest. Those two make me feel good that it's not to be forgotten.

Granted, you can say the same for C:SotN, but Alucard draws far less from his other games than Ness does for SSB/M and Alucard's other games don't compare to the SSB-series.
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/13/2007 2:08:32 PM | message detail
Does anyone think that Crono > Raiden > Zero > Lloyd is possible? Because I kinda do. >_>

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Xuxon | Posted 9/13/2007 2:13:25 PM | message detail
Really really doubt it. First off, HK-47 or Jak will be there. And your main point of Raiden > Zero... I mean, Luigi barely beat Zero. MGS has been strong in this format, but this is nearing the impossible area, if not there already.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/13/2007 2:13:42 PM | message detail
Heh, I'd love to see Crono > Raiden > Zero (> Jak !!)...but I'm not ready to get carried off in this yet. BB's doing incredible, yet, but given the format, people who finished MGS3 know who BB is just like...and we know that certain somebody would also be kicking ass in this match (though much moreso than BB). Just saying that BB could very reasonably have a dedicated fanbase while the rest are not so much (barring Solid Snake...ahem).

Time'll tell though.
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ZFS | Posted 9/13/2007 2:14:09 PM | message detail
Man, Mario, 57%? Weak!


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MnMZero | Posted 9/13/2007 2:15:02 PM | message detail
Heh, I'd love to see Crono > Raiden > Zero (> Jak !!)...

*throat jab*
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RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/13/2007 2:16:02 PM | message detail
I really don't think HK will be there although Jak does stand a good chance (and after seeing Zelos get rocked, I'd consider him the favorite), but yeah, that wasn't my point.

I really think Raiden's got a good chance. People no longer look at him as the "girlyish" main character of MGS2 that took Snake's "rightful" spot; they see him as a badass because of MGS4. Maybe. >_>

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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/13/2007 2:18:00 PM | message detail
I'd say Raiden certainly has a chance. He's still the main character of a MGS game, whatever you might think of him. And obviously we have no idea where he is from his one appearance.
RPGGamer0 | Posted 9/13/2007 2:20:41 PM | message detail
There we go. You heard it from Kettch; Raiden's going to win! <_<

And I have Zero > Raiden, but I'd love to see Raiden win.

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shadow8021 | Posted 9/13/2007 2:22:11 PM | message detail
Pac-Man, why do you always fail to show up when in the presence of a Nintendo character? Just go die or something...
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heroic tranny | Posted 9/13/2007 2:30:35 PM | message detail
can't see Raiden winning. he might do well, but beat Zero? sorry. Zero hasn't fallen as far as some of you think / want.
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