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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 477

YoAriel33 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:23:56 PM | message detail
I think Bomberman is a fine pick. Can't say the same for Jak.
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ZFS | Posted 9/12/2007 9:24:25 PM | message detail
It's those Wander fanboys spoiling it. That's what this is.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:25:17 PM | message detail
Damn Wanderheads. I love SotC, and you don't see me voting for that guy.
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dot dot dor | Posted 9/12/2007 9:25:38 PM | message detail
I can't believe Big Boss is pushing 25% here. against Mario.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/12/2007 9:25:38 PM | message detail
Just how much do you think Scorpion gained over Ness since 2k4?!

Don't take this format to the literal formula-ridden sense we have done for typical brackets for years, especially when you're using it to compare newcomers and snubs who have last been being SFF.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2007 9:26:31 PM | message detail
Bomberman's got the edge against Phoenix. I say this having picked Phoenix in my bracket out of nothing but fanboyism (but then does that go against my logic? o.O).

...but HK-47's storming his match. Believe in the hardcore fanbase that puts nearly all others to shame :D
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ZFS | Posted 9/12/2007 9:26:54 PM | message detail
Joking aside, he should end up doing pretty well here. I'm thinking the low 60s aren't out of the equation for him when you consider the day vote. Not looking good for him against Sephiroth, but them's the breaks!

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Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2007 9:27:19 PM | message detail
Big Boss is getting more relative to Mario than pre-KH2 Auron. Man.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2007 9:28:08 PM | message detail
Wander stalls again oh god

tranny you still wanna account bet on Pac > Wander? <_____<
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2007 9:28:51 PM | message detail
Big Boss is getting more relative to Mario than pre-KH2 Auron. Man.

FF/MGS SFF CONFIR- *gets shot*
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Just Some Person | Posted 9/12/2007 9:28:59 PM | message detail
I think Pac's failure is rooted in a "what have you done for me lately" mindset.

Not doing anything relevant in over a decade can rob you of a fanbase (no, Pac Man Championship Edition on Xbox Arcade doesn't count).

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:29:29 PM | message detail
You have to remember, the last 2 times we saw Pac get SFFd it was Yoshi and Luigi.

This is freakin Mario. I mean, come on, of course he was going to get beat into the ground.

TuRtLe
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34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:30:57 PM | message detail
I probably shouldn't say this in a public forum, but I wouldn't hesitate killing a human being to see HK-47 move on.

And he's my third favorite KotOR character.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/12/2007 9:31:00 PM | message detail
Damn Mario making Big Boss dip under 25%.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:32:09 PM | message detail
At least Big Boss has no where to go, but down.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:33:03 PM | message detail
Mario is strong, no doubt...Big Boss is managing good, well...besides the fact the other competition is a SFFd PacMan and Midgar Zolom 2.0.
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BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 9:33:24 PM | message detail
Nintendo Power Hour? More like Solid Neck Snapping Hour AMIRITE?! Seriously I never played a Metal Gear game and this is the second loss it's gotten me, but hey at least I took Raiden and whoever than "Snake" guy is.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/12/2007 9:33:53 PM | message detail
Don't worry, this is still the Power Hour. Wait for the night vote!

woo I'm Karma Hunter MGS MGS MGS Snake Snake Snake through this arm feed on a tree frog *handgesture*
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Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2007 9:34:34 PM | message detail
Like I said, I'd put Ness around 22%, but I'm not really sure about Scorpion. I'd hesitate to put him too high, maybe 25%. I think Midna underperformed due to the format and Kratos is weaker now, though.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/12/2007 9:34:35 PM | message detail
Laugh and grow fat!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:35:07 PM | message detail
Ocelot dropped about 3% from this point. I'm expecting things to be a bit worse for Boss, although he might be benefiting for being the best choice for Mario haters.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:36:05 PM | message detail
Any theory that supports Scorpion sucking is a theory that BT can get behind

aww yeah

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/12/2007 9:36:14 PM | message detail
Big Boss is really impressing here. Though Mario is going to get a lot of this during the day.

RPGuy:
Yeah it's not like Ness ever got the same amount as Scorpion on a common opponent or anything. The reason many of us picked Midna is that it was hard to fathom her being weaker than Ness...but that is pretty clearly the case.

But that logic never made much sense. I always figured Scorpion>Ness. I can't see how Ness could actually be equal to Scorpion.

Not to say Ness isn't stronger than Midna, but that doesn't mean much. Liquid Snake is probably stronger than her too.

The main thing Ness will have to rely on is the Nintendo Boost I think, otherwise he's very much in danger against Liquid.

Xuxon
That was by far Scorpion's worst year, and I thought his dominance showed that he's above his 2004 self now. Plus there's Sub-Zero's performance to consider.

Agreed, Scorpion is a lot stronger than his 2k4 stat.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:36:20 PM | message detail
Y'know, the Nintendo Power Hour really hasn't done much for Nintendo this year. It still tends to favour them, but not in the same margin as the morning/afterschool vote, whereas it usually exceeded those periods last year. And it's not really a reflection of the day, either, because Frog completely owned it (he did better there than the real night, much like Crono last year) and Kefka did well with it (though not quite as well as the real night). And some Nintendo characters (Samus in particular) did poorly during it.

I don't really know where I'm going with this, but it's sort of weird.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 9/12/2007 9:37:27 PM | message detail
Dammit, Wander, you're letting Pac-Man get away!

Mario better score damn high today.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/12/2007 9:37:28 PM | message detail
It just shows that the NPH is a silly name for it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:38:15 PM | message detail
It's been said millions of times, the "day" vote on a weekday is an extended night vote, with the real day vote we all fell nostalgic about happens before and after the kiddies get out of school.

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/12/2007 9:38:35 PM | message detail
Agreed, Scorpion is a lot stronger than his 2k4 stat.

Also this isn't an after-the-fact thing, I thought this before the contest.


I think the NPH goes by board preferences. Which hits Metal Gear as well as Nintendo.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/12/2007 9:38:39 PM | message detail
The first hour is just "holy **** the poll is open let's vote now" hour. It's just a wild crazy hour where everyone following the contest votes so it's just kind of... out there.
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BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 9:40:33 PM | message detail
Oh yeah I forgot Liquid was probably gonna knee my bracket in the groin as well. And MG taking out KH took me down in the series contest if you really want to get technical about it. But hey Snake is in a cardboard box in Smash how can I stay mad at him?
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__Mega64__ | Posted 9/12/2007 9:41:15 PM | message detail
Yes, Wander's stalling Pac-Man! Mario jumped .3%!

Dammit, and to think I have to go to bed now. :/
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BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 9:42:22 PM | message detail
I think the broadest generalization you can make about the first hour is that they skew old school, and hate "new" Square.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:44:27 PM | message detail
I nominate today as the most predictable match so far this contest. The only real suprise here is how high BB is, but he's going to drop like a rock when the sun comes out.

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
creativename | Posted 9/12/2007 9:46:18 PM | message detail
I think the broadest generalization you can make about the first hour is that they skew old school, and hate "new" Square.

Not really. See Midna and Auron.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/12/2007 9:46:54 PM | message detail
Oh geez, Pac-Man under 12 percent now. Geez, Wander will probably start winning updates against Pac-Man in an update or two.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2007 9:47:19 PM | message detail
I nominate today as the most predictable match so far this contest. The only real suprise here is how high BB is, but he's going to drop like a rock when the sun comes out.


A match where the Gurus were split 50/50 on who takes second is not predictable. The most predictable match was Auron > Shadow.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/12/2007 9:47:45 PM | message detail
I'm thinkin the most predictable match so far was Samus > Frog actually
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:48:27 PM | message detail
But that logic never made much sense. I always figured Scorpion>Ness. I can't see how Ness could actually be equal to Scorpion.

Ness is no chump. Always being behind SFF distorted our view to the point where he pulled off two large board upsets over Jak and CJ. It doesn't help that we've never really gotten a good read on Jak, CJ, or pre-KHII Auron, but I think 25% on BL is a fair estimate for pre-Ninty boost Ness and that happens to be about where I'd place the Scorpion we saw in the first few contests. Scorpion might be pushing a bit stronger these days - Sub-Zero last year and himself this year really impressed - but Ness could be a bit higher to thanks to the general Nintendo boost, though I wouldn't really give him much.

You can certainly argue about his chances in this format, and I agree that Liquid is probably stronger than Midna, too, what with Ocelot and Big Boss impressing and especially in this format. And Alucard did manage to match Ness' percentage on a stronger Auron. But I do think a lot of people underestimate the little guy.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 9:49:15 PM | message detail
But that logic never made much sense. I always figured Scorpion>Ness. I can't see how Ness could actually be equal to Scorpion.

And...why not?
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creativename | Posted 9/12/2007 9:49:27 PM | message detail
Board vote was actually Auron's weakest time I think, but not by much. I don't think you say the board or the board vote is anti-Auron at all. And there are probably other new Square character that would also be liked by the board.

The two most defining things I think are that it is pro- the big Nintendo franchises, and anti-FF7. WIth various stuff like Metal Gear thrown in there, as an overlap with the night vote. Basically it's like a mix of night and afterschool preferences - but in a usually predictable trend.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 9:49:42 PM | message detail
It's been said millions of times, the "day" vote on a weekday is an extended night vote, with the real day vote we all fell nostalgic about happens before and after the kiddies get out of school.

And when I said "day" I meant afterschool vote. I usually specify what we see during weekdays as the during school vote, but then I usually specify that I mean afterschool vote, too.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:50:58 PM | message detail
A match where the Gurus were split 50/50 on who takes second is not predictable. The most predictable match was Auron > Shadow.

All of the Guru's who took Pac Man don't pay attention to the stats topics. Or they get screwed when they forgot to push submit after switching to BB. Besides, Shadow stunk that match up and PH suprised us all.

I'm thinkin the most predictable match so far was Samus > Frog actually

None of us thought Axel would be close enough to Frog to even TRY what he did.

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Majin Lou | Posted 9/12/2007 9:51:46 PM | message detail
Whoa, Mario dropped in percentage now...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/12/2007 9:52:43 PM | message detail
The NPH is how people show their trendyness.

Nintendo on the upswing? Let's vote for low-tier Nintendo characters! Final Fantasy character in the poll? Pfft, this hasn't been SquareFAQs in 3 years.

TuRtLe
~~~
34/40 in the contest. Next pick: Mario > Pac-Man
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
swirIdude | Posted 9/12/2007 9:53:00 PM | message detail
Whoa, Mario dropped in percentage now...

He increased his lead, that;s more important.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/12/2007 9:53:30 PM | message detail
Most predictable to me was yesterday. Sure, Fox won by more than we expected but besides that it was pretty much exactly as thought.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 9:54:06 PM | message detail
He increased his lead, that;s more important.

No. It's. Not.
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creativename | Posted 9/12/2007 9:54:07 PM | message detail
but I think 25% on BL is a fair estimate for pre-Ninty boost

I really don't think that's a good spot for him pre-boost. I'd put him more at 20%ish on Link. Higher with the boost, but still not at 25%. I think that's where Scorpion is, and I'm pretty confident (and was before the contest) he'd dispatch Ness without sweating it.

Ness may have boosted more than I give him credit for, so I may be underestimating how strong he is now. But I don't think he was all that strong back in the day.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/12/2007 9:55:13 PM | message detail
He increased his lead, that;s more important.

I know. I'm just surprised he did because he's been gaining all match. Perhaps he'll start losing more percentage as the night vote goes on and Big Boss will get over 25% again, which will kick ass.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 9/12/2007 9:55:39 PM | message detail
I always thought Ness was like, Kefka level. I always wanted to see Ness Vs. Kefka
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