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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 477

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/12/2007 10:13:01 AM | message detail
...Is anyone else feeling 5% or less for Wander tomorrow? To begin with, SotC isn't THAT popular. Then you've got the fact that the name "Wander" is never said in game anywhere. You have to look at the instructional manual credits to find it. Then there's the fact that his picture is horribly unrecognizable. You need to see the sword or Agro or something, for cryin' out loud. He looks like a woman (...Maybe they were going to call it Wanda and the Colossus for a reason!).
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/12/2007 10:15:27 AM | message detail
Yes. I'm giving him 5% probably in my oracle.

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MnMZero | Posted 9/12/2007 10:17:46 AM | message detail
And I'm wondering why people wanted Banjo in the contest in the first place. I know I was saying I expected him to beat Falcon yesterday, but still...this is bad. He was only going to be Conker level at the very best, and it seems he's well below that.

This is basically an all-Nintendo poll right? You can't expect Banjo to be anywhere near his peak strength in this matchup. Also, I thought that Conker's character was the reason he was liked, not the popularity of Bad Fur Day. Even if BK and BT were more prominent, he still doesn't hold that edge. Really, Fox is doing much better than I thought, and it all seems at the expense of Banjo. Thinking about who they are, it really isn't that surprising a result. In retrospect, I wouldn't expect Banjo fans to hold up under the presence of these three...
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Tales | Posted 9/12/2007 10:18:46 AM | message detail
I have Wander in second -_-
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/12/2007 10:22:46 AM | message detail
I would still like to see Banjo in a normal contest setup. I don't think he's going to be worth much of anything, but I think he's deserving of one of the bottom seeds that is going to go to a character of no strength anyway.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/12/2007 10:22:49 AM | message detail
This is basically an all-Nintendo poll right? You can't expect Banjo to be anywhere near his peak strength in this matchup. Also, I thought that Conker's character was the reason he was liked, not the popularity of Bad Fur Day. Even if BK and BT were more prominent, he still doesn't hold that edge. Really, Fox is doing much better than I thought, and it all seems at the expense of Banjo. Thinking about who they are, it really isn't that surprising a result. In retrospect, I wouldn't expect Banjo fans to hold up under the presence of these three...

You're right. And the fact that Banjo hasn't been in any other games hurts him. Long story short: He's doomed to failure.

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RockMFR 5 | Posted 9/12/2007 10:35:17 AM | message detail
You have to look at the instructional manual credits to find it

WTF.

*goes to change oracle prediction again*
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 9/12/2007 10:36:41 AM | message detail
It's hard to even gauge Fox's strength in an all Nintendo poll chock full of SFF. A lot of people are jumping the gun in saying Sephiroth > Fox.
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MnMZero | Posted 9/12/2007 10:42:26 AM | message detail
It's hard to even gauge Fox's strength in an all Nintendo poll chock full of SFF. A lot of people are jumping the gun in saying Sephiroth > Fox.

Well, when his competition for that slot alongside Sephiroth is against other Nintendo characters, I'm pretty sure this poll is speaking volumes...
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2007 10:45:40 AM | message detail
Hey, Banjo was also in Diddy Kong Racing, the second best N64 game. Of course, he completely sucked in it, but meh.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/12/2007 10:45:52 AM | message detail
Its not like he's facing Mewtwo or someone I'd give a 'decent' chance to upset him. He's up against Meta Knight who was struggling to beat Peach for a while and Wario again who he's embarrassing here.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2007 11:17:33 AM | message detail
Banjo is doing worse than I thought he would, but not by much. I never epxpected him to do anything.

What the hell, CF? He completely collapsed. I expected Wario to end up winning, but CF just...died.

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H__RR____H | Posted 9/12/2007 11:27:01 AM | message detail
If Fox is just shy of beating Wario and CF combined, then I'm not fretting Fox > MK. Now, Round Two will definitely be different for Fox/Wario -- a non-Nintendo Noble Niner will be in the poll to suck many of their more casual votes -- but we're seeing that Nintendo fans in general definitely support Fox to some extent. Also, if Wario or MK had benefited from SSBB-hype at all this round, expect even less for them next round. MK will have Fox in the poll instead of Peach to snag more of the SSB-love and will be facing two Nintendo characters that Nintendo fans care more about compared to one Nintendo character that Nintendo fans are generally apathetic about. Meanwhile, Wario will now be competing with MK for any SSBB-hype left over. This doesn't really delve into their normal strengths, but MK and Wario are still in bad positions next round.

Again, having Sephiroth in the poll definitely changes things, but not necessarily much. Given Fox's performance today and how MK/Wario will clash, methinks Fox has it pretty easily again.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
The Mana Sword | Posted 9/12/2007 12:15:13 PM | message detail
Wow, this match went from very cool for the first 30 minutes to a complete bore-fest.

Thanks a lot, Falcon.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 12:21:03 PM | message detail
Wario's collapsing with the afterschool vote, that's at least a good sign for Meta-Knight in his quest for third.
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transience | Posted 9/12/2007 12:24:15 PM | message detail
wow, that's one impressive collapse. guess the power hour wasn't misleading.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 12:25:25 PM | message detail
heh, looks like Fox being between Ness and DK is pretty much thrown out the window if you ask me. I, again, now consider him between Fox and Kirby.

Fox/Sub-Zero would be hella hard, though. so would Fox/Vivi.
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 12:25:49 PM | message detail
Donkey Kong and Kirby*
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
swirIdude | Posted 9/12/2007 12:26:27 PM | message detail
Fox would school that sorry excuse for an ape. He's already proven that his fans only vote for him because of affiliation.
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*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win* ~Leonhart
Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2007 12:29:27 PM | message detail
I'd take Mewtwo.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 12:31:47 PM | message detail
hmm.. Mewtwo/Fox would be just as hard as Donkey Kong/Fox. I dunno really. it'd be close, though. Fox > DK is starting to look realistic, though.

but we have no idea where Wario stands just yet. and all Falcon really has is SSB, so this performance, though good, isn't exactly super duper special. Mewtwo got 25% in a poll with both Ryu and Bowser in it and I think this is just as equally as good as that.

Donkey Kong is probably left in the dust..
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2007 12:55:40 PM | message detail
Wow @ the fatass declining. He's falling as fast as...nah, that's too easy.

And Fox is just flying higher and higher. Argh my predictions!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Banjo/Falcon/Fox/Wario - Bracket: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox (30/36)
swirIdude | Posted 9/12/2007 12:58:19 PM | message detail
There is a Pac-Man ad (Namco Museum games) on my screen as I type this. Will this propel Pac-Man to ultimate victory (2nd place)! Or will the Big Boss remind us that he is in the match picture and rip out Pac-Man's innards?
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*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win* ~Leonhart
BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 12:58:47 PM | message detail
Yeah, I didn't really think Fox would pad his percentage. But hey the kiddies came through for once! This makes that 6 AM hour look even more bizarre though.
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Should I start running now?
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 1:26:00 PM | message detail
07:00 | 14.95% | 18.44% | 41.01% | 25.60%
08:00 | 13.02% | 17.93% | 43.47% | 25.57%

Like I said earlier, these two hours are better than the 5-6 hour.
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BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 2:06:23 PM | message detail
Heh for once it's the night/day vote that ruined a close match, not the afterschool "kiddies". Falcon is stalling mighty fine for someone who got beat by 4000 during the "dead" hours.
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Should I start running now?
H__RR____H | Posted 9/12/2007 3:12:45 PM | message detail
Fox is beating Wario and CF combined by more than a full percent now. Fox managed 17% against Link in 2k3 while dealing with SFF from him while MK managed 18% against Sephiroth and CATS yesterday while dealing with "SFF" from Peach. I don't believe many people would have taken MK > Wario before the contest, and I wonder how many would even today.

Unless Fox's fans from SF64 and SSB/M aren't hardcore fans (ha!), there's no way Fox doesn't advance with some style next round.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 3:15:16 PM | message detail
Switch Wario and Peach and MK wins by even more.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
transience | Posted 9/12/2007 3:15:52 PM | message detail
I believe that Wario is basically equal to Peach, but that, like Peach, he'd be on the ass end of SFF in a Nintendo match. basically, I see no way for MK to advance - but then, I saw no way for him to advance vs. Peach either.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
ZFS | Posted 9/12/2007 3:21:28 PM | message detail
Fox is likely to advance next round, but he's getting some unnecessary hype here, if you ask me.

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H__RR____H | Posted 9/12/2007 3:24:27 PM | message detail
Hypothetical: if SSBB-hype was non-existent...or, hell, if SSBB didn't exist, would you take MK or Wario?
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 3:26:14 PM | message detail
pretty hard. probably Wario.
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
transience | Posted 9/12/2007 3:26:42 PM | message detail
probably Wario. I think MK is equal parts hype and character. well, and character design, but that doesn't matter if people don't know who the hell you are.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 3:27:21 PM | message detail
Fox is likely to advance next round, but he's getting some unnecessary hype here, if you ask me.

You'd still take DK over Fox?
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
ZFS | Posted 9/12/2007 3:34:56 PM | message detail
I don't know. I'm not making any assumptions based off of a match like this. This doesn't say anything about Fox's strength when pitted against characters who aren't from Nintendo -- low tier Nintendo at that.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
therealmnm | Posted 9/12/2007 3:42:09 PM | message detail
This match certainly doesn't determine Fox's strength, but it surely debunks those people holding Fox to the one legitimate match he had, which was against Cloud all the way back in 2k2. And I take those stats with a grain of salt. Fox is basically an unknown. I found it kind of silly to say that he couldn't be stronger than Donkey Kong, especially with as little info we have about the guy's contest strength. Yet, he always got written off.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/12/2007 3:46:42 PM | message detail
not by all of us. I've said in the past that I'd take Fox over Vivi, for example. I have high expectations when it comes to Fox. there's no reason *not* to expect big things -- or at least decent things -- out of him.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 3:52:23 PM | message detail
I dunno, his games since 2k2 haven't been very impressive, and even back in 2k2 he wasn't even close to Kirby, who's had most of his biggest games since that contest. This performance seems to imply that he'd come awfully close to Kirby 2k6.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
trannyscience | Posted 9/12/2007 3:53:19 PM | message detail
bad games holding him back? what's up Sonic

Fox beating Kirby? nah, that's probably a stretch. on the other hand, I'd take SF64 over *every* Kirby game.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/12/2007 4:32:46 PM | message detail
Hypothetical: if SSBB-hype was non-existent...or, hell, if SSBB didn't exist, would you take MK or Wario?

I'd go with Meta-Knight for the upset.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/12/2007 4:36:12 PM | message detail
Wander will finish above Pac-Man tomorrow.
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redrocket | Posted 9/12/2007 4:39:08 PM | message detail
No.

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trannyscience | Posted 9/12/2007 4:39:19 PM | message detail
I'd probably account bet someone that that won't happen.

I'm actually thinking Pac-Man should be called the favourite there lately. I have the same feeling I had about Ocelot.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
"war uh ya what is it good for absulite nothing" -ertyu
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/12/2007 4:40:25 PM | message detail
Wander will be in the bottom 5 of this year's stats, mark my words.
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Lopen | Posted 9/12/2007 4:45:36 PM | message detail
Pac-Man vs Big Boss should be close. I've got Big Boss, but I don't think Pac Man is going to collapse in Ms. Pac Man/Mega Man like fashion, even being against the master.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/12/2007 4:50:36 PM | message detail
I admit I had trouble with Boss/Pac when I filled out my bracket, but it's hard to have faith in Pac after seeing how he has performed against Mario sidekicks. That, and if certain characters indeed rise and fall in this format (I don't think it is as big of an effect as people say it is), Pac would indeed be the first to fall.

That, and he has to be associated with the worst TNA Tag Team champion this side of David Arquette.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 4:50:47 PM | message detail
so what do we do? use Ness?
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/12/2007 5:01:06 PM | message detail
It's just a hunch I have. *shrugs*

SotC may have a small fanbase, but at least he won't get absolutely destroyed by SFF.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 5:07:25 PM | message detail
Time | Banjo . . | Falcon | Fox . . . | Wario
01:00 | 13.25% | 21.07% | 44.02% | 21.66%
02:00 | 12.20% | 20.29% | 44.96% | 22.55%
03:00 | 12.05% | 20.21% | 44.83% | 22.91%
04:00 | 12.70% | 20.08% | 40.82% | 26.40%
05:00 | 11.82% | 17.81% | 41.87% | 28.50%
06:00 | 14.18% | 16.67% | 38.91% | 30.24%
07:00 | 14.95% | 18.44% | 41.01% | 25.60%
08:00 | 13.02% | 17.93% | 43.47% | 25.57%
09:00 | 12.92% | 18.42% | 42.45% | 26.20%
10:00 | 12.60% | 18.53% | 42.65% | 26.23%
11:00 | 11.26% | 17.91% | 43.64% | 27.18%
12:00 | 12.26% | 17.10% | 43.90% | 26.74%
13:00 | 12.53% | 17.72% | 44.43% | 25.32%
14:00 | 11.71% | 17.15% | 45.68% | 25.46%
15:00 | 13.32% | 18.34% | 45.69% | 22.64%
16:00 | 13.80% | 18.31% | 47.76% | 20.13%
17:00 | 14.00% | 18.65% | 48.20% | 19.15%
18:00 | 14.33% | 18.55% | 47.77% | 19.35%
19:00 | 13.60% | 18.90% | 48.68% | 18.82%
20:00 | 14.08% | 18.40% | 48.38% | 19.15%

Anybody who can explain how Banjo has a better afterschool vote than Wario gets a cookie. What the heck happened during the dead zone is cookie worthy, too.
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Samurai7 | Posted 9/12/2007 5:08:34 PM | message detail
It's possible that they all have such similiar trends that it comes done to random variation >.>
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