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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 477

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/12/2007 12:56:36 AM | message detail
I guess this match is as good as over. Still, damn nice Fox performance so far.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Lopen | Posted 9/12/2007 12:59:58 AM | message detail
Thing is, swinging 3000 votes isn't as easy when you're trailing already as opposed to slightly ahead. Needs a bigger %age shift. Whereas Peach was losing to start and stalling during the night, Wario was stalling to start and winning during the night. I'm liking Wario's chances here.
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"GUYS I JUST DRANK A MASTER CHIEF SODA, MASTER CHIEF FOR 2007!" - Swirldude
jonthomson | Posted 9/12/2007 1:12:32 AM | message detail
Holy crap, where the hell did Fox winning by this much come from?
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Jon Thomson - 26/32, next picks: Sephiroth beats Peach
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/12/2007 1:15:08 AM | message detail
Major SFF, like Squall vs. Tidus.

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DC
Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2007 1:18:48 AM | message detail
Base Fox off of Captain Falcon right now, and Fox is at 30.96% on BL if the percentages imply a direct match-up score (even higher than that using King Morgoth's formula)... the best explanation is that Fox has a major SFF advantage here.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/12/2007 2:15:04 AM | message detail
This match is over. So who comes out of Sephiroth/Meta Knight/Fox/Wario?

I got Sephiroth > Meta Knight so I'm hoping this is just everyone else sucking way worse than Fox. >,>

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DC
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 2:17:08 AM | message detail
Fox is nearly guaranteed to trash Meta-Knight if he needed the day vote to beat Peach.
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/12/2007 2:18:30 AM | message detail
I think Serphy > fox is more likely. Even if you account SFF into this match, Fox still did extremely well in this matchup. He is looking like a Noble Nine member with that kind of performance against those fodder / low-midcarder
Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2007 2:19:06 AM | message detail
Meta-Knight didn't need the day vote. He was already ahead. He just needed Peach not to get it by much.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
Dilated Chemist | Posted 9/12/2007 2:30:19 AM | message detail
There it is. Wario with a 1000+ lead over Falcon.

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DC
Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2007 2:56:57 AM | message detail
It is looking quite unlikely at this point that Captain Falcon can catch up. Vote swings aren't the way to make comparisons so much as percentage swings. Wario is ahead by nearly 4% here. Meta Knight gained 2.5% on Peach from his closest margin with Peach.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/12/2007 2:58:56 AM | message detail
Wario's getting to the 2nd round but yet this result still pains me V_V
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"Eet's game time..."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/12/2007 3:00:05 AM | message detail
yay morning vote helping Wario like all Mario characters.
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Today: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox
Tomorrow: Mario > Big Boss - Vote: Mario - Points: 28/34
Guess how many teens | Posted 9/12/2007 3:16:48 AM | message detail
Seems like I was overestimating Wario a bit >_>
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/12/2007 3:23:25 AM | message detail
*doesn't know who to root for*
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The apples were too strong for him.- Abomstar
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/12/2007 3:30:39 AM | message detail
C'MON BANJO !!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
ShatteredElysium | Posted 9/12/2007 3:35:30 AM | message detail
I need Banjo and Wario to keep increasing in percent and Fox and Falcon to keep dropping. That's not from character preference but to salvage at least something from my oracle predictions today >_>
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Character Battle: 30/36
Oracle: 27th Team Oracle: 18th (Partner: BZer0)
Xuxon | Posted 9/12/2007 3:46:04 AM | message detail
Falcon's not winning the morning vote and going on 1500 behind. He's done. Oh well, it was a sexy upset pick that didn't pan out.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
swirIdude | Posted 9/12/2007 5:08:35 AM | message detail
Personally I didnt think CF had a chance, but what do I know, I had Mudkip advancing!
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*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win* ~Leonhart
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/12/2007 5:13:21 AM | message detail
I learn one thing today: Wario is FATASS !!
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
MnMZero | Posted 9/12/2007 6:13:35 AM | message detail
Hmmmm, only 28 points and still in the top 600 or so. Not too bad, seeing that Jill is my only knock against me for next round. Kinda worried about Bowser/Ryu come next round. I'm hoping that Ryu just benefited from being "not-Nintendo" in that poll instead of that 36% truly being a steadfast Ryu fanbase. If that's the case, then Auron ought to take a big chunk out of Ryu. If not, well, then my bracket gets ripped up.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
Draco1214 | Posted 9/12/2007 6:17:16 AM | message detail
I'm kinda surprised Falcon is getting buried so easily with the day vote. I expected him to hold up a lot better.
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
HaRRicH | Posted 9/12/2007 6:38:32 AM | message detail
Wario's now got a 5%/2,000+ vote lead, and this is practically a pure Nintendo match. CF's impressed me, but he's still done for.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/12/2007 6:48:37 AM | message detail
Looking at my pre-expectations, Banjo, Captain Falcon, and Wario are all doing about as I expected... proportionally-speaking. It's all about Fox McCloud today.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2007 6:48:41 AM | message detail
Wario owning the night and now he's not stopping during the morning? Interesting, guess the board just hates him. He's got 2nd locked up at this point.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Banjo/Falcon/Fox/Wario - Bracket: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox (30/36)
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2007 6:49:42 AM | message detail
Looking at my pre-expectations, Banjo, Captain Falcon, and Wario are all doing about as I expected... proportionally-speaking. It's all about Fox McCloud today.

Heh, almost the same here. Banjo and Falcon are right where I predicted them. It's just Fox/Wario that needs to swing about 7%.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Banjo/Falcon/Fox/Wario - Bracket: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox (30/36)
HaRRicH | Posted 9/12/2007 6:56:48 AM | message detail
I'm still surprised CF has a leg to stand on in this match. I guess it's a good thing it was a all-Nintendo match so he was known to a higher percentage of the voters, ha.

What's the vote-total looking like for today?
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
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ShatteredElysium | Posted 9/12/2007 7:02:27 AM | message detail
Looking at my pre-expectations, Banjo, Captain Falcon, and Wario are all doing about as I expected... proportionally-speaking. It's all about Fox McCloud today.

Heh, almost the same here. Banjo and Falcon are right where I predicted them. It's just Fox/Wario that needs to swing about 7%.



Looking at my oracle spreadsheet as it stands you guys are scoring:

Moltar 46.73
Haste2 44.99

The day on the whole hasn't seen any fantastic predicitions though. Moltar's predicition pens him in at 5th for the day with the highest being a 47.53 prediction that is falling as Falcon's percentage falls. Only 14 people have 46+ predicitions at the minute but there are a fair few people who have totals rising with current percentage change trends.
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Character Battle: 30/36
Oracle: 27th Team Oracle: 18th (Partner: BZer0)
ShatteredElysium | Posted 9/12/2007 7:03:44 AM | message detail
*cough* predictions

I have no idea how I managed to typo on everyone of those despite knowing full well how it's spelled >_>
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Character Battle: 30/36
Oracle: 27th Team Oracle: 18th (Partner: BZer0)
Who Cares? | Posted 9/12/2007 7:20:10 AM | message detail
Bah, dissapointing to see Falcon die off in the morning after going stride for stride with Wario in the opening hours. Ahh well, at least Fox making Round 3 is more than an given now.
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Current Points: 30
Maximum Possible Points: 762/768
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/12/2007 7:48:16 AM | message detail
Just a quickie: is Bowser > Auron a feasible choice for Round 2?
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Master Moltar | Posted 9/12/2007 7:52:04 AM | message detail
Any combination of Bowser, Auron and Ryu in the top two is possible at this point.
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Banjo/Falcon/Fox/Wario - Bracket: Fox > Wario - Vote: Fox (30/36)
transience | Posted 9/12/2007 8:04:37 AM | message detail
whoa, what the hell happened to Falcon? I can understand losing the morning vote to Wario, but he lost updates to Banjo.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/12/2007 8:14:53 AM | message detail
Time | Banjo . . | Falcon | Fox . . . | Wario
01:00 | 13.25% | 21.07% | 44.02% | 21.66%
02:00 | 12.20% | 20.29% | 44.96% | 22.55%
03:00 | 12.05% | 20.21% | 44.83% | 22.91%
04:00 | 12.70% | 20.08% | 40.82% | 26.40%
05:00 | 11.82% | 17.81% | 41.87% | 28.50%
06:00 | 14.18% | 16.67% | 38.91% | 30.24%
07:00 | 14.95% | 18.44% | 41.01% | 25.60%
08:00 | 13.02% | 17.93% | 43.47% | 25.57%
09:00 | 12.92% | 18.42% | 42.45% | 26.20%
10:00 | 12.60% | 18.53% | 42.65% | 26.23%
11:00 | 11.26% | 17.91% | 43.64% | 27.18%

Wario's (extended) Power Hour sucks, but night, morning, and day votes are good? Weird. Well, at least we finally have a match that goes mostly as expected.
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transience | Posted 9/12/2007 8:16:54 AM | message detail
Banjo looks to have a good day vote, huh? and Fox looks to have a bad one?

looks like Wario > Banjo > Fox > Falcon in the daytime.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 8:19:41 AM | message detail
07:00 | 14.95% | 18.44% | 41.01% | 25.60%
08:00 | 13.02% | 17.93% | 43.47% | 25.57%

These two updates are the morning vote, right? So they would correlate best to after school, right?

If that's the case, Falcon > Fox > Banjo > Wario after school.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
H__RR____H | Posted 9/12/2007 8:20:25 AM | message detail
go banjo go banjo go
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/12/2007 8:21:56 AM | message detail
Er...Fox > Banjo > Falcon > Wario after school, I meant.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
H__RR____H | Posted 9/12/2007 8:31:07 AM | message detail
Fox VS Mewtwo, head-to-head...who ya got?
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/12/2007 8:32:35 AM | message detail
Fox
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Banjo 19.45% - Falcon 20.87% - Fox 30.15% - Wario 29.53% ~ Status: Bad again
transience | Posted 9/12/2007 8:35:30 AM | message detail
I've always had Fox there. I think Fox could give Sub a fight.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
XxSoulxX | Posted 9/12/2007 8:37:51 AM | message detail
Fox
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Owner of TWO sticky topics!
Pearl Code: 3952 3520 2488
ShatteredElysium | Posted 9/12/2007 8:38:46 AM | message detail
Fox
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Character Battle: 30/36
Oracle: 27th Team Oracle: 18th (Partner: BZer0)
MnMZero | Posted 9/12/2007 8:57:07 AM | message detail
Banjo looks to have a good day vote, huh? and Fox looks to have a bad one?

looks like Wario > Banjo > Fox > Falcon in the daytime.


Of course, don't forget that it's all relative, seeing how they all pretty much draw from the Nintendo fanbase. I wouldn't take that to mean that Fox has a bad day vote. He actually probably has a pretty good one compared to most other characters in this contest.
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Proud Supporter of Zero
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/12/2007 8:59:31 AM | message detail
Fox, easily. I'm very impressed with how well he's doing, and at the same time, how well Captain Falcon is holding up.

And I'm wondering why people wanted Banjo in the contest in the first place. I know I was saying I expected him to beat Falcon yesterday, but still...this is bad. He was only going to be Conker level at the very best, and it seems he's well below that.

Either that, or my Zero > Jak pick isn't looking so good. I'll believe it's the former right now.

...By the way, how did I have Sephiroth > CATS yesterday and only drop FOUR spots?
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/12/2007 9:01:31 AM | message detail
And I'm sad that this Fox performance means that Meta-Knight basically has no chance of advancing to round three. Oh well. He can still beat Wario, maybe!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/12/2007 9:03:37 AM | message detail
I'd take Mewtwo in a heartbeat over Fox.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 9/12/2007 9:09:59 AM | message detail
Fox would SFF Mewtwo to the ground. SSBM is all that matters in that poll.
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Owner of TWO sticky topics!
Pearl Code: 3952 3520 2488
paraboxx | Posted 9/12/2007 9:21:39 AM | message detail
...cripes. I run my mouth off last night about voting patterns and Peach parallels and collapsing Mario characters and Wario's up by 3400 when I come back?

Teach me to...hell, to speak, frankly!

Still disappointed in him, though. I really did expect him to take first. Oh well...
BDawg | Posted 9/12/2007 10:01:23 AM | message detail
Heh is 6-7 really the only morning vote hour? I generally thought it would at least include 7-8 but that 6-7 hour really sticks out like a sore thumb.
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Should I start running now?
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