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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 475

Haste_2 | Posted 9/10/2007 10:58:02 PM | message detail
Peach's day/afterschool isn't very good. MK has SSB support, and Kirby does great in the day, too.

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Gaddswell | Posted 9/10/2007 10:58:08 PM | message detail
Go Meta Knight!
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Finally a damn bracket!
creativename | Posted 9/10/2007 10:58:29 PM | message detail
I think Meta Knight will do decent with the day vote, but there is a very real possibility that he totally collapses. Him being a newcomer and all, it's unknown, and his patterns are not as obvious as say Marcus Fenix's were.


Who could have guessed that the answer to my Sephiroth 45%/50% over/under was 20 minutes, and well over 2 hours. If Meta Knight does collapse in the day, it might largely go to Sephiroth. I see only some of it going to Peach, and obviously CATS will get none of it.
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Big Bob | Posted 9/10/2007 10:58:34 PM | message detail
300 VOTE BARRIER ACTIVATE
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"It's Meta Knight, whose introduction was delayed for some reason." - Sakurai
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:00:57 PM | message detail
Peach's day/afterschool isn't very good.

It isn't?

MK has SSB support,

Uh... last I knew Peach was in SSBM, which has actually been released so far...

and Kirby does great in the day, too.

Compare that to how well Mario does.

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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:03:09 PM | message detail
Peach should own the morning vote - Mario characters typically do - but I think the afterschool vote is still up for grabs.

I don't expect much to happen here until 6-7, really. Peach has managed to cut 28 votes in 45 minutes, and that pace probably isn't going to accelerate - we're in the true night, so percentages should be more or less stable, and the number of incoming votes is going to decrease until the morning hits.
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Mustache...and green...
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:04:18 PM | message detail
I'd expect Meta to be closer to Kirby's vote trends than Peach to Mario's tbh

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 11:05:56 PM | message detail
damn.. CATS. you let me down. =( oh well, at least I stuck with the upset until the bitter end.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/10/2007 11:07:19 PM | message detail
aw come o Peach
all this for nothing
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ CATS 12.02% - Meta 8.24% - Peach 16.60% - Seph 63.14% ~ Status: Bad. Again!
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/10/2007 11:07:23 PM | message detail
Meta Knight just got 30 back in 2 updates. Friggin CATS is keeping up with Peach.

And Sephy is owning the poll now.
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
EpicBigKevinm84 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:09:26 PM | message detail
Go MetaKnight. He is cooler than CATS. I like him too but MetaKnight is much deeper than CATS is.
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Tigers and Rockies fan.
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Keno316 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:09:33 PM | message detail
How are the votals looking for this match?
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/10/2007 11:11:16 PM | message detail
Bad votals. 2000 under last Tuesday's votals so far.
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/10/2007 11:12:24 PM | message detail
So Peach stalls for almost an hour but then all of a sudden Meta starts gaining big again?
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
voltch | Posted 9/10/2007 11:16:03 PM | message detail
well with all the talk of peach vs CATS i guess everyone got owned.
damn my poor bracket.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
greatone10 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:17:13 PM | message detail
lol Peach stalls again
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 11:19:05 PM | message detail
well... if I didn't have faith in CATS, my next pick would have been Meta-Knight.. >_>
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:21:56 PM | message detail
Peach and Meta Knight are just knocking the CRAP out of each other.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
greatone10 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:21:59 PM | message detail
And we are back in the 33X range again!
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
transience | Posted 9/10/2007 11:22:14 PM | message detail
mmmmm SFF matches

gotta love weird trends when you're drawing from the same fanbase
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/10/2007 11:22:25 PM | message detail
Pretty decent 23 vote cut for Peach there. And Sephiroth is really starting to take over finally.
MMXcalibur | Posted 9/10/2007 11:22:27 PM | message detail
This contest is pissing me off.
I can't seem to correctly predict anything lately...argh....

I mean, Meta Knight over Peach? Good gravy....
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/10/2007 11:22:27 PM | message detail
Nice cut by Peach.
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Finally a damn bracket!
Haste_2 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:33:31 PM | message detail
For the fun of it, I have to post this (again, but the final results):

Bowser/Mewtwo turned into a traditional matchup results in Bowser winning with 53.43% of the vote.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
FastFalcon05 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:38:07 PM | message detail
Peach's day/afterschool isn't very good. MK has SSB support, and Kirby does great in the day, too.

It was good enough to come back against Jill, though. Peach has that same SSB support, and not all of her strength is drawn from that game, either. And while MK is from the Kirby series, it isn't exactly equivalent to being Kirby.
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One of the most troublesome things in life is that what you do or do not want has little to do with what does or does not happen. ~ Lemony Snicket
Big Bob | Posted 9/10/2007 11:40:23 PM | message detail
As was said earlier, Meta Knight gets his strength not from the games, but because he's ****ing Meta Knight.

MK is one of the most badass Nintendo characters, and he does it while being cute. >>
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"It's Meta Knight, whose introduction was delayed for some reason." - Sakurai
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:42:39 PM | message detail
Come on Sephiroth.... gotta have over 50% by the time 3 oclock rolls around...
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
HaRRicH | Posted 9/10/2007 11:45:06 PM | message detail
It was good enough to come back against Jill, though. Peach has that same SSB support, and not all of her strength is drawn from that game, either. And while MK is from the Kirby series, it isn't exactly equivalent to being Kirby.

Coming back against Jill isn't exactly a trophy of sorts. Your other points are valid, though I think MK's still gonna do better come day-time due to that Kirby-connection.
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/10/2007 11:45:10 PM | message detail
Jill's bad with the day vote though. And she was occasionally stalling and cutting Peach, even during the afterschool hours.
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Finally a damn bracket!
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:48:59 PM | message detail
Lame update there, other than Peach cutting. Sephiroth dropped under 200 votes....

Come on Sephy, 10 minutes to get to 50%.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
ZFS | Posted 9/10/2007 11:49:12 PM | message detail
It's tough to say with Meta Knight, but I'd be leaning toward him having a pretty good day vote.

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Janus5000 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:52:49 PM | message detail
His day vote can't be too much worse than this, in any case.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/10/2007 11:53:32 PM | message detail
Last update: CATS - 42 votes. Meta Knight - 44 votes.

Go CATS!
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:55:26 PM | message detail
Aw yeah, all things pointing to Sephiroth being a monster during the day.

And with things looking the way they are.... I see no reason to think that one of Meta OR Peach will win the day vote. It should be pretty even all day, which means Peach has ample opportunity to come back.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
greatone10 | Posted 9/10/2007 11:55:38 PM | message detail
I would think Meta Knight would have a better day vote, but that's no more than a calculated assumption.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 11:57:30 PM | message detail
Augh. Come on Sephiroth. .11% increase here. YOU CAN DO IT.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Janus5000 | Posted 9/11/2007 12:00:58 AM | message detail
owned
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
HaRRicH | Posted 9/11/2007 12:01:41 AM | message detail
fodderoth
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creativename | Posted 9/11/2007 12:01:47 AM | message detail
Big Bob
As was said earlier, Meta Knight gets his strength not from the games, but because he's ****ing Meta Knight.

MK is one of the most badass Nintendo characters, and he does it while being cute. >>


I'm like a Meta Knight fanboy despite never having seen him in-game.

I got turned into a Meta Knight fanboy by Google Image Search. That's how ****ing badass Meta Knight is.

:)

ExThaNemesis
I see no reason to think that one of Meta OR Peach will win the day vote. It should be pretty even all day, which means Peach has ample opportunity to come back.

This is like what I was saying earlier. I think Sephiroth is pretty much going to keep increasing til the end, and I don't see Peach increasing with the after-school vote. But she might not drop with it as much as Meta Knight.

My first reaction is still that Meta Knight will be good with the afterschool vote and stall Sephiroth with it or gain at the expense of Peach, while Peach stays stable or drops a bit. But Meta Knight might do bad with the afterschool vote.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/11/2007 12:02:58 AM | message detail
I would think it would be funny if Meta's lead stayed in the 300s during the whole match.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/11/2007 12:03:53 AM | message detail
Would that make this the closest wire-to-wire match or does Frog/Liquid Snake still hold the record?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2007 12:06:22 AM | message detail
I certainly wouldn't count this match - but if you do, the current wire-to-wire record is the 460 max vote difference in Frog/Liquid.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/11/2007 12:07:02 AM | message detail
I doubt the match stays in the 300s, but it's been that way for 2 hours so far.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/11/2007 12:08:32 AM | message detail
Frog's highest lead was 460.
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/11/2007 12:09:50 AM | message detail
O...kay. There was a 60 vote spike that update.
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/11/2007 12:10:45 AM | message detail
I blame Lyn getting announced on the SSBB site.

Am I joking? OH GOD WHO KNOWS
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2007 12:11:31 AM | message detail
So it took him 10 minutes longer than I originally expected, but Sephiroth finally has more votes than all 3 of the other competitors.

Estuans interius, ira ve hementi.

=D=D
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/11/2007 12:12:05 AM | message detail
Now it drops by 80 votes... wtf is going on?
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SC2k7: 25/32, tied for 501st
Today's Pick: Sephiroth > Peach
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/11/2007 12:13:06 AM | message detail
Clearly people are vote stuffing for the Nintendo characters.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
This bold part is here until the New York Yankees are in first place in the AL East again. 7/2/07
Gaddswell | Posted 9/11/2007 12:14:16 AM | message detail
But Seph dropped the most votes!
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Finally a damn bracket!
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