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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 473

__hiei__ | Posted 9/10/2007 1:20:48 PM | message detail
probably because the match happened on weekend but

comparing Bowser's votes with Shadow's at the same time

16:15 Bowser: 26015

16:13 Shadow: 29073
BDawg | Posted 9/10/2007 1:22:42 PM | message detail
Bowser doesn't look great but I think he's holding together better than Ryu. And Mewtwo is clearly the real day vote star. Toad is in the "well he can't be doing worse" category as far as I'm concerned. I hope for Serge's sake he isn't trying to hold Pikachu back come 3 PM, cause I think he'll find out what a real surge is.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/10/2007 1:27:04 PM | message detail
Poor Bowser :(
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:28:15 PM | message detail
Yeah, my Tidus>Serge pick isn't looking so good right now.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 1:29:52 PM | message detail
Mewtwo is a whole new beast from Pikachu. Mudkip/Bidoof are better comparisons.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:30:58 PM | message detail
Still, it's definitely doesn't HELP my pick.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
adamjaxe- Stop measuring your presents....
trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 1:34:44 PM | message detail
it also doesn't hurt it. it's like saying Link > Cloud means Zelda > Vincent.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:36:20 PM | message detail
Well when you pick something no one else seems to have it's nice to have reassurance.

Next match...can't see Meta-Knight winning it, but Peach and CATS have equal chances.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
adamjaxe- Stop measuring your presents....
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 1:36:59 PM | message detail
many people would love to say Peach is nearly a lock.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:38:33 PM | message detail
But she isn't, really. I can't see Peach having almost any dedicated fans (the only one I've ever met is Ulti), Meta-Knight may sap some of the Nintendo vote, and CATS is...CATS.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
adamjaxe- Stop measuring your presents....
voltch | Posted 9/10/2007 1:41:32 PM | message detail
so why is everyone rooting for CATS.
for all we know his power might not be as good as it should be.
is peach hindered by meta stronger than ansem?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:43:17 PM | message detail
We root for CATS just because!

Hmm, thought of something else. CATS often gets votes because people don't like/care about the other character (see: Master Chief, Ansem). With 3 other characters to choose from, that part of his votes may be weakened.

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Can anyone give me the dimensions of their Wii box?- Mershiness
adamjaxe- Stop measuring your presents....
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 1:47:24 PM | message detail
Nah, Pikachu is definitely different from Mewtwo. He might have been decent even back in 2002.

Plus, this might just be a, uhhh...false positive.
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ZFS | Posted 9/10/2007 1:59:01 PM | message detail
augh mewtwo

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trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 2:18:46 PM | message detail
Mewtwo hits 24%! Toad hits 10%

haha, Toad has more percentage than Vaan got, even though Toad has two characters sucking votes from him, both of which are arguably stronger than Rikku. owned.
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now playing: PW3, Jeanne d'Arc
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/10/2007 2:30:42 PM | message detail
it also doesn't hurt it. it's like saying Link > Cloud means Zelda > Vincent.

Zelda > Vincent confirmed!

TuRtLe
~~~
28/32 in the contest. Next pick: Sephiroth > Peach
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/10/2007 2:44:13 PM | message detail
Even with Ryu dropping like crazy in %... I still feel good about him next round. Mewtwo and Toad are both taking the day vote from him right now... and Mewtwo is pretty much going 50/50 with him. If that doesn't say Bowser's fanbase isn't that intense, I don't know what does. Granted there's going to be overlap between Pokemon and Mario... but it's not like Mewtwo is only hurting Bowser here either.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/10/2007 2:46:41 PM | message detail
Where do you guys get those percentages per update from?
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/10/2007 2:47:20 PM | message detail
Also, I've always had a hard time seeing why anyone thinks Zelda is on the same level as Vincent... she's never shown to be outside of one match against Samus, where there was clearly some funky-ass business going on last year. I'm not saying she has no shot in this format, because anything can happen in this format, and Vincent isn't so far ahead of her that it'd be impossible for her to win, but I've still got the feeling that people would take that pick in a 1v1, and I just don't understand why.

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Explicit Content.
I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken
ZFS | Posted 9/10/2007 2:55:16 PM | message detail
Even with Ryu dropping like crazy in %... I still feel good about him next round. Mewtwo and Toad are both taking the day vote from him right now... and Mewtwo is pretty much going 50/50 with him. If that doesn't say Bowser's fanbase isn't that intense, I don't know what does. Granted there's going to be overlap between Pokemon and Mario... but it's not like Mewtwo is only hurting Bowser here either.

Eh, I don't think Bowser not having an extremely hardcore fanbase will matter a ton next round. It goes without saying that Mewtwo and Toad are definitely hurting Bowser much more than Ryu -- not even a question. If you give Bowser 80% of Toad's votes, he's going 50/50 with Ryu right now. You don't even need to bring Mewtwo into the equation. When you take away both of them, Bowser's probably taking this one with ease right now. There's no Nintendo characters to hurt him next round, and he'd certainly be the most unique of the four. Anything is possible, but I think Bowser's chances next round are pretty good.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Starion | Posted 9/10/2007 3:02:17 PM | message detail
Well, the sff-adjusted extrapolated standings in 2005 showed only slightly less than 2% difference between Vincent and Zelda. Factoring in her performance last year, it isn't a stretch to think that the two are roughly on the same level.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 3:03:39 PM | message detail
but I've still got the feeling that people would take that pick in a 1v1, and I just don't understand why.

Though I mostly agree with what you say (I still take Vincent over Zelda in a 1v1), Zelda will almost certainly have increased this year. Still fairly confident in Vince though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/10/2007 3:13:48 PM | message detail
Zelda was just two points below Vincent last year, but Vincent almost unanimously boosted in 2006, though we can't verify if it REALLY happened nor the extent to which it did. The question then becomes... how much do you think Zelda boosted from TP? And are you really risking Zeldafear... against the namesake herself?

(I have Zelda in that match, for what little that's worth)

And I'd say TP beats up on WW... though I'll give LoZ an outside shot. I'm not sold on its power outside of franchise voting (much like I believe there's no way in HELL the original FF gets close to 40%+ on Mario 3 without franchise voting). OoT and LttP dispatch it cleanly though, and there's more than a few games I take over TP without *too* much waffling. I don't believe TP is a Top Ten game here, at least not in the long term.

(as an aside, the Spring 2004 Adjusted Stats may be my least favorite set of stats ever)
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:15:23 PM | message detail
Bowser can barely handle Ryu straight up.

Like in 2k5?


Keep in mind that in the Battle Royal last year, Cloud was only able to gain 75% of Sephiroth's votes when he was eliminated. I'd expect Toad to give away a pretty similar percentage here, but you can't just throw 100% of them at Bowser.

Agreed, plus Cloud was the only Square-character left. You have two Nintendo characters left in Bowser and Mewtwo...and, though Bowser benefits more from Toad's disappearance than Mewtwo does, you have to respect that as well. That's also ignoring Ryu gets a likely-small portion of his votes before this too.


*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win*

Classy.


haha, Toad has more percentage than Vaan got, even though Toad has two characters sucking votes from him, both of which are arguably stronger than Rikku. owned.

Not to mention Bowser 57-43'd Yoshi before and Ryu's beating Bowser in today's poll.

Toad >>>>>>>>>> Vaan.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:16:14 PM | message detail
Time | Bowser . | Mewtwo | Ryu . . | Toad
01:00 | 31.65% | 21.87% | 37.04% | 09.43%
02:00 | 27.71% | 22.08% | 40.72% | 09.50%
03:00 | 27.68% | 22.64% | 39.50% | 10.19%
04:00 | 28.27% | 22.28% | 39.83% | 09.62%
05:00 | 24.15% | 24.86% | 42.21% | 08.78%
06:00 | 27.43% | 25.21% | 38.21% | 09.14%
07:00 | 31.96% | 25.07% | 33.48% | 09.49%
08:00 | 32.42% | 24.68% | 32.78% | 10.12%
09:00 | 30.56% | 23.22% | 35.15% | 11.06%
10:00 | 30.03% | 23.17% | 36.78% | 10.02%
11:00 | 29.72% | 22.53% | 37.22% | 10.53%
12:00 | 29.34% | 22.86% | 37.92% | 09.88%
13:00 | 27.67% | 23.80% | 39.08% | 09.45%
14:00 | 27.35% | 23.65% | 39.40% | 09.60%
15:00 | 28.45% | 25.24% | 36.18% | 10.13%
16:00 | 29.21% | 27.50% | 32.96% | 10.33%
17:00 | 29.10% | 26.63% | 33.29% | 10.98%
18:00 | 28.13% | 28.09% | 32.42% | 11.36%

Bowser = morning, Mewtwo = after school, Ryu = night, Toad = AUGH
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Ed Bellis | Posted 9/10/2007 3:16:36 PM | message detail
(as an aside, the Spring 2004 Adjusted Stats may be my least favorite set of stats ever)

You've obviously never seen me try to make adjusted stats. >_>

how does jill valentine break 78 percent on the fire emblem series and why is there a picture of morrigan's boob in the middle of my microsoft office
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 3:19:36 PM | message detail
I picked Zelda over Vincent but looking back it was a really stupid choice.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:21:01 PM | message detail
Mewtwo's doing GREAT for himself today. For shame that I under-estimated Ryu...but it's still a mean combo of sturdy performances from Ryu and especially Mewtwo.


I really wish Mewtwo and Captain Falcon would have switched places.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:30:08 PM | message detail
Also, while I'm on the topic of Captain Falcon, there was talk about him advancing into the next round...and I have a very difficult time believing that. Fox steals most of his SSB/M support and Wario doesn't do him any favors, Star Fox/Mario/Wario Ware are more popular series than F-Zero (and maybe even Banjo's series as well), and Captain Falcon's never had as much focus on him as the other characters have had -- within the series or otherwise.

I'll speak metaphorically for a second. His SSB/M-leg will break and his F-Zero-leg will crumble under their weight...and his importance will be ripped from him via wishboning of the crippled legs. I can NOT see that upset happen.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 3:34:51 PM | message detail
I would have had Fox and Mewtwo battling it out. probably Mewtwo > Fox. (okay, maybe I'm biased, but still!)
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 3:35:34 PM | message detail
I would not be amazed to see CF finish fourth in that poll.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
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Big Bob | Posted 9/10/2007 3:37:53 PM | message detail
I like Banjo more than any of those guys, but no way does he get anything other than last.

I predicted Fox > Wario; Fox has the most SSB exposure and the best game, and while Falcon has been in SSB more than Wario, Wario's still the more recognizable of the two.
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:40:08 PM | message detail
In a purely-Nintendo poll (shut up Rare), being recognizable isn't going to amount to much. Likewise, being unrecognizable won't hurt much...though it would go without saying Captain Falcon is the least recognizable of the four.

I think he's going to barely be last behind Banjo, and I think Banjo will sadly do poorly.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/10/2007 3:41:57 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-09.jpg

Face CATS gg bracket

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-10.jpg

SFA Fox gg bracket

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-11.jpg

Pac FTW?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb6/cb6-12.jpg

Phoenix gets his Objection pic. Let's see if it does him any good.

TuRtLe
~~~
28/32 in the contest. Next pick: Sephiroth > Peach
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:42:28 PM | message detail
I would have had Fox/Mewtwo advance too, though I probably would have taken Fox > Mewtwo...but now, barring an awesome performance even more impressive than today's, I'm taking Mewtwo > Fox in such a four-pack.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
ejm5446 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:42:42 PM | message detail
Big Boss jobbed on that pic.
greatone10 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:44:08 PM | message detail
Ocelot got jobbed in his pic too.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:44:12 PM | message detail
Pac-Man's pic makes me fear for Big Boss. God, this is like 2k5 again.....
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
DpObliVion | Posted 9/10/2007 3:44:14 PM | message detail
What a terrible Crash Bandicoot pic. He got screwed.

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Guess how many teens | Posted 9/10/2007 3:44:19 PM | message detail
@HRRH: Ryu got stronger last year and bowser dropped a little.
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ejm5446 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:44:50 PM | message detail
CATS' pic is a little too dark.

The day after that, everyone looks good.

I don't know who Wander is, but he doesn't look good there.
shadow8021 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:45:49 PM | message detail
Wow, CATS > Sephy CONFIRMED!
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Character Battle Score: 24/28
Today's Pick: Ryu > Bowser
trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 3:45:56 PM | message detail
you should have been fearing the Big Boss > Pac-Man pick before you saw that picture. that match is a complete tossup.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
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Ed Bellis | Posted 9/10/2007 3:46:00 PM | message detail
Sephiroth has TJF in his picture. >_>
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H__RR____H | Posted 9/10/2007 3:46:53 PM | message detail
It's possible, but Round Two will clarify the situation much moreso.



I'm kinda disappointed Wario got a classic shot though -- I wanted him in his Wario Ware look. He's grown cooler since he's grown apart from Mario.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
greatone10 | Posted 9/10/2007 3:47:55 PM | message detail
The pic is not going to erase the fact that Pac-Man performs like **** against recognizable characters, particularly Mario characters.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/10/2007 3:48:22 PM | message detail
I'm kinda disappointed Wario got a classic shot though -- I wanted him in his Wario Ware look. He's grown cooler since he's grown apart from Mario.

Same.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 3:48:48 PM | message detail
a weakened Pac is still strong enough to compete with Big Boss.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
now playing: Jeanne d'Arc
trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 3:49:12 PM | message detail
and I thought Wario's picture was the best of the bunch.
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THE ORDER MATTERS?!?!?!?!?!
now playing: Jeanne d'Arc
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/10/2007 3:49:43 PM | message detail
Pick listing time....


For Banjo/Falcon/Wario/Fox, WHO DO YA GOT?!



Wario > Fox, here.
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~*~ExThaNemesis~*~ I do a lot of pushups and situps, and I drink plenty of juice.
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