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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 473

XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 11:18:36 AM | message detail
That match wasn't exciting until the last hour.

Everything else went so according to trends that saying "OMG AXEL GETS AFTER SCHOOL VOTE!?!?!?!" is completely unncessary and in fact, annoying.


...

-_-. Surely, Frog winning the second night vote also went according to trends? And not many people were surprised by Axel securing the after school vote, but the speed at which he was cutting votes was ridiculous. And a 1900 vote comeback in this format at the time seemed impossible. THAT'S why it was exciting and fun.

-=-

And yes, I give this to Bowser next round. Auron and Shadow both have "cool guy" going for them. Won't do THAT much, but...if anybody loses votes in the next round, it'll be Ryu.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/10/2007 11:25:03 AM | message detail
Does anyone think Bowser and Toad have a fanbase that isn't shared? I'm thinking if Toad would go away as good as all of his votes would go to Bowser, which gives Bowser the winning edge for the next round. And some of Mewtwo's votes.

Keep in mind that in the Battle Royal last year, Cloud was only able to gain 75% of Sephiroth's votes when he was eliminated. I'd expect Toad to give away a pretty similar percentage here, but you can't just throw 100% of them at Bowser.
XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 11:30:59 AM | message detail
That was different...I was surprised at how mny votes went from Sephy to Cloud, actually, considering that their 2003(?) match showed that their fanbase is largely independent. Toad is Bowser fodder for me and I'd expect maybe 90%+ of Toad's votes to go to Bowser.
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voltch | Posted 9/10/2007 11:34:42 AM | message detail
anyone think bowser and mewtwo are doing to toad what link did to ganondorf?
i can't believe toad would be so weak.
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Starion | Posted 9/10/2007 11:37:08 AM | message detail
Yeah. Not that the Toad votes he gets will help him catch up with Ryu though. The real problem here for the Koopa King is Mewtwo. I really doubt the majority of his votes would go to Ryu.
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__Smurf__ | Posted 9/10/2007 11:37:22 AM | message detail
I expected Toad to get half of what he's getting actually. >_>

Given that Peach is lower midcarder, Toad would HAVE to be fodder.
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Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/10/2007 11:53:04 AM | message detail
That was different...I was surprised at how mny votes went from Sephy to Cloud, actually, considering that their 2003(?) match showed that their fanbase is largely independent. Toad is Bowser fodder for me and I'd expect maybe 90%+ of Toad's votes to go to Bowser.

That doesn't really matter though. SFF in a normal match doesn't show how connected two character's fanbases are (well, other than the minimum I suppose), just how much 1 is preferred over the other. Cloud and Sephiroth could easily share as much of a fanbase and Bowser and Toad, it's just that the two of them are preferred fairly equally in that fanbase.

And Toad is Bowser fodder, but that wouldn't necessarily give Bowser more of his votes if he weren't here, in comparison. Any of the traditional SFF in a one-on-one match between them would already be going to Bowser now.
transience | Posted 9/10/2007 12:02:30 PM | message detail
for whatever it's worth, I put Mewtwo at Rikku's level. this format can only help him, and though Bowser's in the poll with him, he clearly has a dedicated fanbase. everyone knew that beforehand - most people even predicted him in the 20s in the Oracle. Mewtwo's not being Leon Kennedy or Dante, sorry. oh, and Wind Waker isn't beating Twilight Princess. come on, stats topic, stop overreacting!

ps Ryu's not beating Link in case anyone's thinking that
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transience | Posted 9/10/2007 12:05:16 PM | message detail
oh hey check out Ryu's percentage the last few updates
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
transience | Posted 9/10/2007 12:06:55 PM | message detail
heh, it's going all to Mewtwo, not to Bowser. SFF confirmed? who knows, but probably.

Mewtwo winning an update outright? we'll see. he's close.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 12:14:12 PM | message detail
Mewtwo being on-par with Rikku sounds like a good guess.. but I prefer to say he's around DK's area. as much as I like the guy, placing him over the likes of people like Rikku, or giving Sub-Zero a run just seems hard to believe.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/10/2007 12:15:45 PM | message detail
If he's at around DK's level, doesn't he still give Sub-Zero a pretty good match? Of course, I'm basing this off the traditionally volatile Master Chief, but it's still pretty damn good for a Pokemon.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:18:29 PM | message detail
I really doubt the majority of his votes would go to Ryu.

I wouldn't expect Bowser to get 90% of them or something either.
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Crossfiyah | Posted 9/10/2007 12:19:13 PM | message detail
I'm damn impressed with Mewtwo.

Damn impressed.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 12:19:53 PM | message detail
I dunno. I think DK isn't as high as 2006 Chief. he didn't look too hot against Sam Fisher; however, Mewtwo does indeed have strength and could cause damage in these contests.. I just hope he returns next year.. :'(.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:20:49 PM | message detail
It is always hard to get people back into the contest when their only appearance ends up with a first round loss.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:22:51 PM | message detail
DK didn't look too hot against Sam Fisher? He did almost as good as Magus. That's what got people thinking he might beat MC, I think...

Also, the fact that Mewtwo ISN'T getting SFF'd ought to speak about him being independent from Bowser, fanbase-wise. I'd still expect Ryu to get his fair share from him. Even when Snake was eliminated from the Battle Royale, Cloud didn't get the majority of his votes by very much at all, and if you're thinking that it's because of the trailer, it's crazy to think that 10% of fans started liking Snake more than Link because of a trailer.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 12:23:38 PM | message detail
We should give Mewtwo an auto-spot on the Nomination Rally. >_>

Seriously though, I know it isn't fair but on this performance he'd be better than most of the medicore stuff that would win the next tournament.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:23:57 PM | message detail
And Ryu's starting to plummet, as expected. Here's hoping he can stay over 35% by the end...He shouldn't bleed THAT much, but you never know.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
therealmnm | Posted 9/10/2007 12:24:44 PM | message detail
Ryu's really impressing me today. What the hell is up with these previous Bowser opponents??? First Pyramid Head gets 16% on Bowser and then goes on to get 16% on Auron, Shadow, and Chris Redfield combined. Now Ryu gets 41% on Bowser, then goes up and puts up a solid 37% on Bowser with two other Nintendo characters in Toad and Mewtwo. That's insane. Either Ryu's fanbase is really, really hardcore (we're talking about beyond Master Chief on the hardcore fan spectrum), or he's simply benefitting from being the only non-Nintendo character in the group and is benefitting from the non-Nintendo fans on top of his normal fanbase.

That second theory should be tested next round with the likes of Auron in the poll. Otherwise, it's not a guarantee at all that Bowser makes it through the next round.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:25:12 PM | message detail
We should give Mewtwo an auto-spot on the Nomination Rally. >_>

Seconded.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:25:24 PM | message detail
And there's really not much point to having another Nomination Rally after this year, now that 128 characters got in. Who's really out there worth rallying for that's got any shot of getting in? I mean, I guess we could try to rally for Diddy and Seifer again, but if they couldn't get in with this format, then I don't like their chances if it goes back to 64.

Well, it'll be different for Diddy next year since he'll have SSBB, but still.
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transience | Posted 9/10/2007 12:25:53 PM | message detail
DK didn't look so hot against Sam Fisher because he was up a good 75% and then tumbled throughout the day, I think.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:26:20 PM | message detail
...But isn't that what DK does?
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 12:27:28 PM | message detail
DK didn't look too hot against Sam Fisher? He did almost as good as Magus.

wasn't 2003 Fisher different from 2005? I have like, absolutely no way to explain the Magus/Fisher deal.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
transience | Posted 9/10/2007 12:28:03 PM | message detail
I'm just stating why people were disappointed! I was actually calling for DK to give MC a tough match prior to the contest starting.

I also don't think Rikku is a mile above DK or anything. those two are fairly close.
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:28:20 PM | message detail
We only thought it was different because people were still certain Magus was a Noble Nine breaker.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:29:07 PM | message detail
More like Knuckles was a Magus breaker!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/10/2007 12:29:24 PM | message detail
I'd say DK is still behind Rikku a small bit. not much, but I'd take Rikku to win it.
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Today: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo
Tomorrow: Sephiroth > CATS - Vote: Meta-Knight - Points: 24/28.
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:29:54 PM | message detail
Uhhh...Well, if Ryu keeps dropping like this, maybe he WON'T stay above 35%...

He'll still stay plenty ahead of Bowser though. Mewtwo's the one gaining like crazy. The Koopa King will still only get around 30% at best.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:32:17 PM | message detail
CJayC is to SBAllen as Knuckles is to Mewtwo.

CJay hated Knuckles and kept setting him up the Snake. SBAllen hates Mewtwo and sticks him in an unwinnable match while creating several fodder packs.
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Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/10/2007 12:32:28 PM | message detail
Woahwoahwoahwoahwoah.

This might have been going on at the start of the topic, but no-one badmouths Wario whilst I'm around!

I'll have you know he has a wide and expansive fanbase! He'll be topping that poll too. I figure that if you've got a 4-way SFF fest like that, always go for the Mario or Zelda character if in doubt, and obviously Wario fits the bill there.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:33:52 PM | message detail
Wait, 64.89% of the vote given to Shadow is suddenly a wide and expansive fanbase?
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:34:39 PM | message detail
Hey, if he gets 35.11% in his match, Wario's got it!
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Luis_Sera89 | Posted 9/10/2007 12:36:35 PM | message detail
Don't doubt my logic! :P
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"Eet's game time..."
swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 12:36:45 PM | message detail
If Wario gets 35.11% in this match, then some crazy stuff is going down.

Then again it's one of two all-Nintendo packs (SBAllen hates Nintendo get him!)
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:37:59 PM | message detail
...With the way it's going, Bowser might drop below 29%, actually. Mewtwo's beating him in updates now.

Huzzah!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:46:25 PM | message detail
Almost an update win for Mewtwo!

And come on, Toad! Get that 10%!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
LeonhartFour | Posted 9/10/2007 12:50:02 PM | message detail
You know, seeing how effective the Nintendo split can be gives me hope for CATS tomorrow.

*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win*
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."
That MAY sound like backward logic to you, but trust me, I'm onto something here!
Buzzup | Posted 9/10/2007 12:51:11 PM | message detail
Jill's weak performance doesn't exactly inspire much faith in Peach either. v.v
Heroic Yuna | Posted 9/10/2007 12:51:19 PM | message detail
From LeonhartFour Posted 9/10/2007 3:50:02 PM #389
*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win*

...
~~~
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Embok.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/10/2007 12:53:06 PM | message detail
*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win*

XD
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 12:53:14 PM | message detail
I have Peach...but you bet your ass I'll be voting for CATS tomorrow. CATS getting 2nd tomorrow would be the most immense thing EVER.

How many votes do you think CATS would be guaranteed against any opponent? A lot of people were saying he had a ceiling, but I bet he has something of a floor as well.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 9/10/2007 12:54:07 PM | message detail
And dammit I'm really excited about that match now *sets alarm for 5:00AM to see it off* >_>
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voltch | Posted 9/10/2007 12:56:07 PM | message detail
CATS'S floor would probaby be his result against link.
i mean how people anti-vote link?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/10/2007 1:00:32 PM | message detail
Lots of people anti-vote Link. Being contest champion can be a bad thing.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/10/2007 1:02:27 PM | message detail
Mewtwo is kicking ass here. He really got screwed in placement.

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hochiminh155 | Posted 9/10/2007 1:14:49 PM | message detail
Do people really think Wario can beat Fox? It's a guarantee that Fox wins that. fox is good with SFF. He slaughtered Pikachu and didn't do too bad against Link with SFF
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trannyscience | Posted 9/10/2007 1:15:47 PM | message detail
jeez, Bowser is DECREASING during the day vote with Ryu? and TOAD is increasing in his place?

wow, this is a mighty sad performance by 'ol Bowzah.
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swirIdude | Posted 9/10/2007 1:16:12 PM | message detail
*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win*

ROFL. Sigged.
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*votes for Meta-Knight to help CATS win* ~Leonhart
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