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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 473

TimJab | Posted 9/9/2007 9:15:26 PM | message detail
It appears we have an epic showdown. I'll give the early edge to Ryu due to SFF, but Bowser should get the day vote. I think.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19


*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/


*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html


*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm


*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php


*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 10 Lists:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2002stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2003stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2004stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/spring2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2005stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/july2006stats.htm
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/summer2006stats.htm

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://adamrose.mit.edu/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/top10

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
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alt.8: http://alt8.proboards56.com
Just call me TJ
Ed Bellis | Posted 9/9/2007 9:16:16 PM | message detail
Discuss away!
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This was KING BELLIS LOL
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:52 PM | message detail
Well, it's time for me to overreact and tear my bracket into pieces!

I guess I'll go to sleep and hope for the best. =/
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
TimJab | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:12 PM | message detail
http://a248.e.akamai.net/f/248/5462/2h/images.gamezone.com/screens/23/7/76/s23776_gc_20.jpg
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alt.8: http://alt8.proboards56.com
Just call me TJ
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:16 PM | message detail
That's the second time I've gotten that very same 500 post in these things. >_>

Also, go Ryu!
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doo doo doo I got no sig
Gaddswell | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:19 PM | message detail
Heh, 2 stats topics in a row?
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Finally a damn bracket!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:31 PM | message detail
I reiterate, Ryu is insane.
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
ZFS | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:47 PM | message detail
fungah foiled again

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Janus5000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:47:58 PM | message detail
Bowser: Hey Ryu, can I borrow an update?
Ryu: HADOUKEN!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." - Joseph Stalin
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 9:48:09 PM | message detail
Bowser's done. Go outside and play because this match is over. No point in watching anymore.

hadokenhadokenhadoken
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Bracket: Ryu > Bowser - Vote: Bowser (24/28)
greatone10 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:48:14 PM | message detail
Ryu already has a 500 vote lead. Bowser will need for Mewtwo and Toad to give them all of their votes in the day to have a chance.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
SonicRaptor | Posted 9/9/2007 9:48:23 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm not sure if Bowser is going to mount a comeback here.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 9:48:27 PM | message detail
Ok, taking what little we can get from this, where would you folks peg Mewtwo on BL?

DK level or so... maybe? Or maybe closer to Peach... but a more than decent showing here, no matter what.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:48:50 PM | message detail
Heh, go Ryu

For great bracket justice!

If he keeps this up, I'll be third in the guru, hopefully on the leaderboard, and should jump quite a bit in the oracle.

A good day for BT.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:49:06 PM | message detail
Mewtwo close to DK sounds about right. Maybe a little higher than him...
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doo doo doo I got no sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 9:49:40 PM | message detail
If only because DK chokes so much, but I'll take DK > Mewtwo indirectly.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/9/2007 9:50:01 PM | message detail
I'd say Mewtwo is right around Link. He's just getting reverse-SFFed. But he's still the (poke)man.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:50:03 PM | message detail
And did I mention how this Mewtwo performance is making me shiver with glee for my other Pokemon picks?

aww yeah

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:50:33 PM | message detail
Okay this is over, I'm going to bed.
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
Majin Lou | Posted 9/9/2007 9:50:46 PM | message detail
Geez, 84 vote update. **** yeah, Ryu! I'm going to bed.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:50:51 PM | message detail
Alright, going to bed. Ryu is absolutely dominating.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:51:03 PM | message detail
XD
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doo doo doo I got no sig
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 9:51:07 PM | message detail
Where is Ryu gettin such friggin strength? Even if Toad and Mewtwo are screwing with Bowser
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:51:10 PM | message detail
Ryu is stealing from everyone.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:52:11 PM | message detail
3 goin' to bed posts in a row. Awesome.
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
Who Cares? | Posted 9/9/2007 9:52:24 PM | message detail
Where is Ryu gettin such friggin strength?

Street Fighter's always been great in the opening hours of matches.
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Current Points: 26
Maximum Possible Points: 766/768
Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 9:53:17 PM | message detail
Fighting game characters with strong loyal fanbases confirmed.

Two upsets called in a row, everything's coming up Moltar!
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Bracket: Ryu > Bowser - Vote: Bowser (24/28)
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:54:31 PM | message detail
Street Fighter's always been great in the opening hours of matches.

Yeah but Ryu is up against Nintendo Power hour and yet he is still performing quite impressively with it.
greatone10 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:54:45 PM | message detail
I wonder if anyone's thinking twice about Akuma, who's got a similar, but not quite the same, situation here.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 9:55:39 PM | message detail
Yeah but Ryu is up against Nintendo Power hour and yet he is still performing quite impressively with it.

...to be fair Nintendo is pulling in 63% of the votes currently. <.<
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/9/2007 9:55:55 PM | message detail
Mewtwo almost beat Bowser there...
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
Xuxon | Posted 9/9/2007 9:55:57 PM | message detail
There are only so many day votes to go around. If there are three characters in the poll who are likely to have a strong day vote, it means that the advantage of each is diluted. So Bowser being strong during the day may allow him to increase by a percentage point or two if he's lucky, but more than that is unlikely given how strong Mewtwo is turning out to be.

However, this is nullified by the fact that the bad day vote character will be doing especially bad against 3 characters that have a good day vote. The relative day votes of the 2 characters in question are the only things that matter.
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FFXII NLB - finished - 39 marks
FFXII LLIENANMiNDM - Bhujerba (post-Ba'Gamnan)
andaca | Posted 9/9/2007 9:56:29 PM | message detail
Bowser gained 6!

....on Mewtwo.
charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:56:35 PM | message detail
Lol Bowser only went up by 6 against Mewtwo.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 9/9/2007 9:56:58 PM | message detail
I'd say it's pretty clear now that Ryu just tanked in '05, and that it didn't have anything in particular to do with Bowser hurting him.
__hiei__ | Posted 9/9/2007 9:57:21 PM | message detail
If mewtwo somehow comes back and wins this will be the best contest ever
HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2007 9:57:46 PM | message detail
Ryu > Akuma, Squall > Bowser, and Aeris > Mewtwo...can't see Akuma stealing second unless Ryu murders the rest of the day.
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PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 9:58:07 PM | message detail
And did I mention how this Mewtwo performance is making me shiver with glee for my other Pokemon picks?

dude, Mewtwo is a serious difference away from Pikachu, Mudkip, and Bidoof.
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Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow
Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/9/2007 9:58:20 PM | message detail
I wonder if anyone's thinking twice about Akuma, who's got a similar, but not quite the same, situation here.

It's not as easy to say only because we don't really know how strong Akuma actually is to begin with. Personally I think he's just too weak to actually compete with Squall and Aeris, even diluted forms of them.

Also, the reason Ryu is so damn strong right now is thanks to Super Puzzle Fighter II HD! You know this to be true!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:58:22 PM | message detail
I wouldn't think twice about Akuma. He's so far below Aeris that unless Squall takes 60% of the match's votes for himself, I can't see her losing.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Mac Arrowny | Posted 9/9/2007 9:58:35 PM | message detail
Ryu's gonna be extra crippled by the day vote because he's against three strong day characters, obviously.
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Rapid analysis, accurate judgment, and superb powers of concentration. That is all we need.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:00:29 PM | message detail
I'd say it's pretty clear now that Ryu just tanked in '05, and that it didn't have anything in particular to do with Bowser hurting him.

This result actually helps support my crackpot theory about higher seeds resulting in disproportionate performances. I used it as my excuse for Luigi and Sora last year, and it helps fit well with what Yuna did, and what Kirby and Dante did in 2k5.

Then again, it really is a crackpot theory that can't exactly be proven with this year's format.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
greatone10 | Posted 9/9/2007 10:01:34 PM | message detail
While you do admit it is a crackpot theory, I have but one response.

Master Choke.
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Donkey Kong Country 2 for next Games contest.
This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/9/2007 10:01:43 PM | message detail
Ryu's gonna be extra crippled by the day vote because he's against three strong day characters, obviously.

Yeah just like how KOS MOS was crippled by MegaMan/Diablo/Arthas during the day.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/9/2007 10:02:09 PM | message detail
I'm sure many have said it, but Mewtwo is solidifying himself as a solid mid-carder here.

---
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:03:15 PM | message detail
Master Chief was always antivoted though, moreso than almost every other character.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 10:03:24 PM | message detail
still hard to peg where he is... I wonder how well he'd do against Ryu one-on-one. 40%?
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Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow
Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24.
Gaddswell | Posted 9/9/2007 10:04:32 PM | message detail
Luigi had that 2 seed in both 2k5 and 2k6 in the same division as Sonic so it's not really an excuse for him.
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Finally a damn bracket!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:05:17 PM | message detail
You know, I was just thinking about that crappy Nintendo fourpack we'll be seeing soon.

Consensus is Fox > Wario, but thinking about it, Captain Falcon has a legitimate chance at it. I think more than any other match in the first round, that one is a complete and utter crapshoot.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 10:05:34 PM | message detail
Luigi was a 3 in 2k5 no?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
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