GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 472
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2007 4:22:06 PM | message detail |
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I love to see TRE debate. He doesn't argue often, but when he does he's as good as anybody. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BDawg | Posted 9/9/2007 4:30:40 PM | message detail |
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Well, no one cares anymore but it looks like Auron is gonna push back
and end up outdoing his overnight peak percentage. And as far as
tomorrow goes, I'd say Mewtwo is gonna be a lot closer to Toad than
Bowser, but Ryu for first seems pretty darn credible. Wish I had it. --- Should I start running now? |
| Gaddswell | Posted 9/9/2007 4:34:54 PM | message detail |
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So in the end, Pyramid Head ends up with the same percent he had against Bowser. It's exactly 16.12% now. --- Finally a damn bracket! |
| Keno316 | Posted 9/9/2007 4:41:42 PM | message detail |
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So...how'd the match end up comparing to your expectations? Auron surprised by sticking above the 40s all match. Shadow was a bit disappointing. Pyramid Head was an out of nowhere surprise. --- "Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB *Claims KG's Eclair, C.C. & Tear Grants* |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/9/2007 5:08:56 PM | message detail |
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Yes, I'd like to remind you all that Guybrush did better than Pyramid Head on Bowser. .... So Chris is weaksauce --- Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Auron 40.11% - Chris 17.14% - P Head 8.07% - Shadow 33.68% ~ Status: Meh |
| Draco1214 | Posted 9/9/2007 5:39:00 PM | message detail |
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That makes me wonder how that Gordon Freeman fourpack will turn out.
I'd say that match gets the lowest vote totals of the contest. --- Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 6:01:28 PM | message detail |
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Auron did slightly better than I expected, PH did much better than I expected, Chris is a little below where I put him... and Shadow? Well, Shadow can do no wrong. Where's that DAMN fourth chaos emerald? --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Auron/Chris/PH/Shadow - Bracket: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (20/24) |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 6:43:38 PM | message detail |
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This match has been rather boring, but I'm glad at the results. --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/9/2007 6:49:51 PM | message detail |
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seems like a lot of people expected shadow to grab at least 30% here... still,this performance puts him pretty much around knuckles's level.maybe a bit higher or a bit lower.seems about right. at least he recovered a bit from those 24% he had the previous night |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 6:55:09 PM | message detail |
| TRE, you have your opinions on Pikachu and I have
mine. Some matches ended up going completely against rational thought
and prior evidence and it's only after the fact that we learn what went
wrong. As for today, Auron is right where I expected him to be, Shadow is much much worse. And of course PH and Chris should be switched. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2007 7:05:16 PM | message detail |
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still,this performance puts him pretty much around knuckles's level. How??? Knuckles got over 27% against Rikku and Vaan, with Yoshi's presence possibly hurting him. Shadow is getting 26% against Chris Redfield and Pyramid Head with no excuses. Shadow pretty much sucked it up today. --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/9/2007 7:09:19 PM | message detail |
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Agreed. Shadow is doing awful here - anytime you lose an update to Pyramid Head, you are not having a good match. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 7:10:26 PM | message detail |
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I blame Auron, and am creating a SFF-term for what he's doing to Shadow. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Auron/Chris/PH/Shadow - Bracket: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow (20/24) |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 9/9/2007 7:15:21 PM | message detail |
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Regarding All but a few had expected Halo/SC to come right down to the wire; no one, anywhere, saw this one coming. A 4+ million selling PS2 Square RPG losing to a fighting game? Many gave up on KH after the early Day Vote continued to favor SC, but an improbable late-afternoon swing somehow shifted voting entirely in KH's favor, leaving analysts baffled. Square nation nearly erupted into chaos after voting was halted for 15 minutes (and results did not update for 45) just after the beginning of the comeback, in order to upload the new main page scripting. This match is notable in that Soul Calibur became the only contestant other than Crono to ever lead for a majority of updates over the course of the day, yet lose in the end. creative, I take serious offense at my Kingdom Hearts/Soul Calibur summary being "just wrong"! Yes, you are correct in saying we expected KH to have a strong Day Vote, but what you're overlooking is that back in 2004 we still didn't realize that there was a difference between the "day vote" and the "afternoon vote." As you see in the updates there, SoCal held only a 161 vote lead at 8am EST, and everyone was in agreement that "that kiddies are going to wake up and vote KH to the win now!" But by the time we got to 3 in the afternoon EST, SoCal had extended that lead to 673, and at that point nearly everyone did in fact throw in the towel on their bracket pick. It's only in retrospect that we can realize what a silly mistake that was, since we've now seen that KH always turns on the jets as soon as middle and highschools let out. With that in mind though, my describing that afternoon surge as "improbable" was a pretty dumb thing to say, I'll admit. But cut me some slack, that reaction is also from back in '04. --- The 2007 Guru Rankings! thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats = lol x-stats |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 7:16:17 PM | message detail |
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Badassed side-kick SFF? Knuckles is so screwed TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 7:16:55 PM | message detail |
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Match VIII: Bowser vs Mewtwo vs Ryu vs Toad Information Name: Bowser Game/Series From: Mario series Past Contests: CB2k3, CB2k4, VC2k5, CB2k5, CB2k6 Wins: Ness (2k3), Yoshi (2k3), Guybrush (2k4), Pyramid Head (VC), Sigma (VC), Revolver Ocelot (VC), Chun Li (2k5), Ryu (2k5), Kirby (2k5), Leon Kennedy (2k6) Losses: Cloud (2k3), Mario (2k4), Sephiroth (VC), Solid Snake (2k5), Crono (2k6) Name: Mewtwo Game/Series From: Pokemon series Past Contests: None Wins: N/A Losses: N/A Name: Ryu Game/Series From: Street Fighter series Past Contests: CB2k2, CB2k3, CB2k4, CB2k5, CB2k6 Wins: CATS (2k2), Duke Nukem (2k3), Dante (2k3), KOS-MOS (2k4), Rikku (2k5), Kratos (2k6) Losses: Samus (2k2), Solid Snake (2k3), Sonic (2k4), Bowser (2k5), Mega Man (2k6) Name: Toad Game/Series From: Mario series Past Contests: None Wins: N/A Losses: N/A Analysis This has to be one of the matches with the most SFF in it. There are three Nintendo characters in this match and two of them are from the same series. The sad thing is that there is another match where even more SFF will be present. Anyway in this match we have a near-elite, a character that is thought to be just below the near elite, the Nomination Rally winner and Toad. Bowser is the favorite going in this match, he has already beaten Ryu two years ago, is higher up on the Mario hierarchy than Toad and Mewtwo wouldn’t only have to be the strongest Pokemon, but actually be stronger by a lot and while some people think Mewtwo will be strong I don’t think anyone on the board has him being as strong as Bowser. The only thing that is stopping Bowser from taking first easily is SFF. With Mewtwo and Toad in the poll Bowser could be in the danger in losing (read coming in second). Poor Mewtwo, he wins the Nomination Rally and gets put into a four-pack where he can’t win and to add insult the other three Pokemon in the contest all have a great chance at advancing. Mewtwo is probably the strongest Pokemon in the series and could have had the potential to upset someone if he got the chance, but here he is nothing but a stepping stone for Bowser and Ryu. Sure Pokemon hate has died down since 2k4, but Mewtwo is still one Pokemon of many and a lot of his SSBM votes will be going to Bowser. Ryu is the favorite to come in second, but he does have a chance at coming in first. From time to time he has shown that he can hang around the strongest by being able to break 40% against several members of the noble nine, sure he has never faced Link, Cloud or Sephiroth but not many characters could do what Ryu can. In 2005 Ryu had a bad match against Bowser where he let Bowser get what noble nine characters got on him. Some people called it a one time fluke, but if you take a look at Rikku she is still expected to get about the same on Ryu despite him jumping back to his old numbers. Maybe there’s a fanbase overlap between Street Fighter series and Mario series or even all of Nintendo. Ryu hasn’t had much experience with Nintendo characters, but if Bowser did it before there is a chance that he could do it again. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 7:17:17 PM | message detail |
| Time for some number crunching, looking at the
Battle Royal we mostly had two separate fanbases, Nintendo and Square.
When both Mario and Sephiroth were eliminated they gave up about 70% of
their percentage to Link and Cloud respectively (The real number was
69% and 71%) while the rest of the percent more or less went evenly to
the rest of the characters. Samus was weird because it looked like
almost all of her percent went to Link. Anyway if we apply the same for
Bowser and Ryu and assume the match was 59/41 like it was in 2005 a
third character in the poll would need to get above 40% before
Bowser/Ryu goes 50/50, but a fourth character brings the number down to
30% and looking around the board you see a lot of predictions of when
you add Mewtwo and Toad together to add up to about 30%. This is also
using a worse case scenario against Bowser. Of course there are a lot of flaws in the explanation I just did, the 70% I got may not apply here, I completely threw out Samus’ numbers (though that would make things look really good for Ryu) and if Bowser has an overlap with Ryu then what is stopping Mewtwo and Toad from having the same thing. As I said SFF will play a big part on who wins this match. Bowser may be the favorite, but my bracket sides with Ryu so I’m backing him. charmander6000’s Bracket: Ryu > Bowser charmander6000’s Prediction: Ryu - 35.36%, Bowser - 34.87%, Mewtwo - 20.08%, Toad - 9.69% --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 7: Auron > Shadow the Hedgehog Points: 20/24 |
| HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 7:43:19 PM | message detail |
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I sure hope Mewtwo does SOMETHING of notice --- Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709 WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2007 7:55:07 PM | message detail |
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As do I -- I'd like to see my being stubborn pay off here. I'm not counting on anything though. --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 9/9/2007 7:56:44 PM | message detail |
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The thing I'm enjoying about this match is I was a hair away from
picking Chris to finish second. I figured that if he performed anything
like Leon than an upset would be likely. Though I went with Shadow
because I figured that was the safer pick and I wasn't confident enough
in the hypothetical upset I had pictured. Chris coming fourth behind Pyramid Head is something I did not expect. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 7:57:46 PM | message detail |
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Any good discussion today? I DON'T CARE BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE THE TIME TO CATCH UP ON IT ANYWAY AHAHAHAHAAH srsly tho lets go ryu *back to work* --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| ZFS | Posted 9/9/2007 8:01:07 PM | message detail |
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I'm all about seeing Bowser rock this poll. Ryu, Mewtwo? Pssh! --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 8:01:55 PM | message detail |
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I'm all about seeing your mom rock my world! I don't care if it doesn't make sense! Your face! --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:02:58 PM | message detail |
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man, I'm actually going to pull for Mewtwo in this poll. I don't care about my bracket. I love the guy to death. --- Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24. |
| ZFS | Posted 9/9/2007 8:09:34 PM | message detail |
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Your face! oh yah your face --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:09:40 PM | message detail |
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Division 2: Round 1 - Match 8 – Bowser vs. Mewtwo vs. Ryu vs. Toad Moltar’s Analysis Bowser Game/Series Known From: Super Mario Seed in 2003: 5 Seed in 2004: 7 Seed in 2005: 3 Seed in 2006: 4 Lost in 2003 to Cloud in Round 3 Lost in 2004 to Mario in Round 2 Lost in 2005 to Solid Snake in the Elite 8 Lost in 2006 to Crono in Round 2 Oh Bowser, you went from “strongest non-Noble Niner” to “lol disappointment” so fast. Mewtwo Game/Series Known From: Pokemon The old-school psychic king makes its contest debut. Ryu Game/Series Known From: Street Fighter Seed in 2002: 4 Seed in 2003: 5 Seed in 2004: 9 Seed in 2005: 2 Seed in 2006: 6 Lost in 2002 to Samus in Round 2 Lost in 2003 to Snake in the Round 3 Lost in 2004 to Sonic in Round 2 Lost in 2005 to Bowser in Round 2 Lost in 2006 to Mega Man in Round 2 Mr. Consistency continues to arrive and perform well at every Contest Toad Game/Series Known From: Super Mario That mushroom headed thing also makes his first contest appearance. When I was first filling out my bracket, I looked at this match and said, “This is simple, thank you Bowser/Ryu in 2005.” However, later when I actually, you know, put some real thought into this match, I saw that it was not that easy. Bowser may have easily beaten Ryu in that match, but in this one, the odds are against him. Look at his opponents, Mewtwo and Toad. That’s two Nintendo characters, one being a fellow Mario character. Also, take a look at the Mario character poll (which is, convienently enough, posted later). In a multi-option poll, Bowser didn’t do so hot. Plus, look at his closest competition. If math isn’t your thing, then I’ll tell you it’s Toad. The split in this poll shouldn’t be as bad, but it is a sign that there will be a split. Then you throw Mewtwo, who has the potential to be the strongest Pokemon we’ve seen yet in these contests (worthy title, I know), into the mix, and all of a sudden, Bowser’s chances aren’t looking too hot (Get it? Get it? I thought you would…). To cool Bowser off even more (I’m on a roll, people!), the other person in this match is a Street Fighter icon. Ryu doesn’t have any trouble out-performing the other characters of the series, and the fanbase for fighting game characters should be as dedicated as the one for RPG characters. It’s not all doom and gloom for Bowser though, as he still has a free slot into the next round. It’s just that with Mewtwo and Toad here to take some of his votes, Ryu has the #1 spot just about locked up. Bowser: Wow man, what’s with the hate. You know what you did Bowser. Bowser: Dude, I told you. It was late and I had a bit too much, and it was dark and I didn’t kno- Aaaaand, we’re done here. Moltar’s Bracket Says: Ryu > Bowser > Mewtwo > Toad Moltar’s Prediction is: Ryu: 33% - Bowser: 29% - Mewtwo: 22% - Toad: 16% Ultimaterializer’s Analysis This contest is littered with matches in which the first and last place characters are obvious, and this is yet another example. Bowser is going to win the poll, and Toad will finish last. I can't see any other way of things, especially with Toad's having to compete with two other Nintendo characters for votes. Looks to be a pretty bad debut for him. Second place doesn't really come down to Ryu vs Mewtwo, but Ryu vs Nintendo. Ryu's 2005 performance is difficult to ignore, as is the possibility of him being overrated in 2005 *and* 2006. Remember that Mega Man likely overperformed on Snake a bit. Hold Snake/Mega Man again with all of Board 8 backing Snake, and Mega Man does a lot worse. Ryu has been performing as if he were on the decline, and strikes me as a character in the Dante or Zero mode: good strength against non-Nintendo, non-Square characters. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:09:54 PM | message detail |
| Which beings us to Mewtwo. Pokémon has been on the
rise since its embarrassing performance in the Spring 2004 Contest,
most recently peaking with a great performance in its loss against
Metroid in the 2006 series contest. Mewtwo is arguably the most popular
of all Pokémon, and I have faith that he'd be around Ryu's strength
heads-up. With the high possibility of Ryu doing badly in this poll due
to all the Nintendo he's up against, I don't think it's a stretch that
Mewtwo could take second place here. Mewtwo could be about as strong as
Kirby, and we saw what happened the last time Bowser was in a match
with Kirby. We also saw what happened the last time Bowser was in a
match with Ryu. That match was an overperformance borne of the villain
contest fiasco (much like Ganon/Yuna), but I think a toned down version
of that match will happen again and squeak Mewtwo through. If Mewtwo is
as strong as I think he is and these two events repeat themselves,
Mewtwo taking second isn't as unreasonable as some think it is. He's a
*huge* fan favorite, and even has the SSBM factor and recent upward
contest trend working in his favor. It's an upset pick admittedly made of fanboyism, but it's not a bad upset pick at all. I think people gave up on Mewtwo much too easily when the bracket first came out. Bowser [32.55%] Mewtwo [28.91%] Ryu [28.00%] Toad [10.54%] Heroic Mario’s Analysis Bowser -- 40% Ryu -- 36% Mewtwo -- 15% Toad -- 9% The last couple of contests, I’ve been way off in determining how Bowser is going to perform. It’s probably going to be more of the same here. He has a tendency to perform exactly opposite of my predictions, although he did get rather close to upsetting Snake in 2005, which would have almost won me that contest! With that said, the winners here are pretty obvious. The tough part is determining which of them wins. At first glance, the clear choice here is Bowser, not only due to being a great deal stronger than everyone here, but also by being the most recognizable. The problem that arises is whether or not Bowser holds a “favorite” status with voters, which is particularly pertinent to a format like this. Despite how badly he beat down Ryu, I’d expect things to be a whole lot closer here. Ryu is the huge favorite in the most popular fighting game series here. That’s a pretty wicked combination. I’m going with Bowser here to pull it off, though. He’s the safer pick, and with the way Nintendo continues to dominate, both on FAQs and abroad, it’s hard to take the upset. The only thing that might prevent Bowser from running away with the poll is Mewtwo and Toad being here, two other characters that can siphon away some of the Nintendo vote. Bracket: Bowser > Ryu Vote: Bowser Yoblazer’s Analysis Quick write-up from me today. In a match between three Nintendo characters and the most consistent upper midcarder of all time, this much is clear: the upper midcarder and the strongest of the Nintendo characters will move on. In this case, that would be Ryu and Bowser. Mewtwo and Toad (well, maybe not Toad >_>) could have made some waves if placed elsewhere, but they're more or less relegated to "Pyramid Head duty" for this match, meaning "let's see how they do for the fun of it." The winners are crystal clear, but the order isn't. Bowser is the stronger of the two, but many have argued that the weaker Nintendo characters will steal just enough of Bowser's votes to have Ryu inch by. It's certainly possible, but that's not what I'm predicting. The fact that Bowser is responsible for Ryu's worst loss ever puts him at an automatic advantage, and I don't think characters as weak as Mewtwo and Toad will hurt Bowser much, if at all. It could be close, but my money is on the Koopa King for a decent victory. Bowser - 38% Ryu - 33% Mewtwo - 19% Toad - 10% |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 8:10:08 PM | message detail |
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oh yah your face no u ahahah --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:11:06 PM | message detail |
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Lopen’s Analysis Oh, Toad. I feel so bad for you. It's as if you've teamed up with Ryu to defeat Bowser. That sounds great... but Ryu will be taking all the credit for the win. "Victory means nothing, the fight is everything" my ass. Behind that classic look is a glory hound, and behind that glory hound is a mushroom dude who won't be getting any credit for this victory. If you haven't figured it out yet, I've chosen Ryu to take first in this poll. Bowser has shown that he's capable of defeating Ryu in past contests, but I'm taking Ryu here. Primarily because Toad is there to siphon Bowser's votes away. And believe me, he will be a powerful little siphon. Toad gets about as much support in the favorite Mario character polls as Bowser does, and I think you'll see the effects in this match. Not to mention Mewtwo. Mewtwo is also a threat to Bowser's votes, being Nintendo and all. So what Ryu's basically got is a three man team against Bowser. Not an honorable fighter, regardless of what he's led you to believe. There's another reason I'm taking Ryu though... and that's because I think he'll do exceptionally well in this contest, in general. The man has never fallen below 40% in a GameFAQs match, despite facing up against some fierce foes such as Samus, Mega Man, Sonic, and Solid Snake. Although Street Fighter is a game of 1v1 combat, Ryu will thrive in these 4 man battle royals, with his diehard fanbase. (and his cowardly 3v1 tactics!) I feel kinda bad for Mewtwo here... I think he had some potential (keep in mind with the %s I don't think Toad is fodder and that Mewtwo might be getting a little SFF of his own)... but Toad vote siphon or not, I don't see him getting out of this one. It'd be a great twist, but I'm not betting on it. Lopen's prediction: Ryu – 37.01% Bowser – 28.33% Toad – 18.55% Mewtwo – 16.11% Karma Hunter’s Analysis Back to the debatable and semi-debatable matches we go! This match is one with two (seemingly) clear-cut winners, one with a bit of a past together. Bowser vs Ryu was perhaps the most hotly debated match of Round 2 in 2005, but it fizzled into a dud when Bowser 60-40'd Ryu en route to giving him the beating of his life. Ryu has "redeemed" himself somewhat with doing better on Mega Man in 2006, but considering his picture advantage and what Mega Man ended up being that year, how much redemption is that really worth? It doesn't hurt that Bowser disappointed that year though... and they ended up equal in the raw stats, look at that. ...still, I hardly think anyone has the guts to take Ryu > Bowser one-on-one, but Bowser is being hampered here. Not one, but TWO Nintendo characters are sapping his fanbase here, and while they have virtually no chance of winning they can dang sure make Bowser comes in second. But if Bowser overperformed on Ryu due to his Ninty status, could that adversely affect the Street Fighter as well? It's an iffy call, but I'm gonna go against my bracket here and side with Ryu. I don't think it was a Nintendo thing holding him back - MM is practically the same thing, and he held up decently. And I think this format will favor him, whereas Bowser hasn't done too hot with it in the past. Karma Hunter's Vote: Bowser. GRRAAAH Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Ryu with 33%, Bowser with 30%, Mewtwo with 23%, Toad with 14% Upset Prediction: 20% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:11:37 PM | message detail |
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Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time seeing Bowser thrive in this format. He's definitely liked a lot, but is he a favorite
in the way that will make people vote him over this competition? He
doesn't have to be to come in second if Mewtwo and Toad are fodder -
but while Toad is practically guaranteed to be (a certainty if he
weren't so Ninty through and through), Mewtwo is a bit different. He
has an awesome appeal that can extend even to non-Pokemon fans - just
look at that picture. He's the Pokemon fan favorite by a landslide.
These are factors that add up to votes in a four-way match like this.
Now if he has some real strength to him, and if Bowser is as weak as
2k6 implies or more... well, then we have a match on our hands, don't
we? Transience’s Analysis there are two ways to look at this match: 1.) Bowser beat the hell out of Ryu. in a match that was expected to be 50/50 by the stats, Bowser won with 59% of the vote. that was Ryu's worst loss ever - worse than Samus, worse than Sonic, worse than Snake, worse than Mega Man the year after. Bowser simply has Ryu's number. 2.) this poll has three Nintendo characters and Ryu. Mewtwo and Toad will weaken Bowser to the point where Ryu can sneak in and take first place. I'm going with option 2 here. Bowser is a character that is universally liked and somewhat of a gaming icon, but his fanbase doesn't seem to be all that focused. he only beat Yoshi with 56% of the vote. his match with Kirby in 2005 has been called "rSFF" before. and perhaps the most damning of all is the infamous Mario poll. Poll 2328 (03/27/2006) Which Mario character is your all-time favorite? 8609 11.20% Bowser 13021 16.94% Luigi 17777 23.13% Mario 2844 3.70% Princess Peach 6509 8.47% Toad 1994 2.59% Waluigi 5273 6.86% Wario 20830 27.10% Yoshi Bowser finished behind Yoshi, Mario and Luigi. he's almost definitely stronger than Yoshi and Luigi, but he didn't even come close to matching their performances in a multi-way poll. this kind of poll wouldn't really be relevant normally, but Toad's in the poll with him. this pretty much shows that Toad is going to suck some of Bowser's votes away from him. add Mewtwo, a character with a solid/rabid fanbase, and Bowser's going to be in trouble trying to get votes. on the other hand, here's an old poll about Ryu: Poll 840 (03/24/2002) Who is your favorite of the original twelve Street Fighter II characters? 403 1.10% Balrog (J:M.Bison) 2580 7.06% Blanka 4554 12.46% Chun-Li 1068 2.92% Dhalsim 776 2.12% E.Honda 3046 8.33% Guile 5646 15.44% Ken 1068 2.92% M.Bison (J:Vega) 12926 35.35% Ryu 1210 3.31% Sagat 2516 6.88% Vega (J:Balrog) 768 2.10% Zangief Ryu gets the love. he's got a fanbase that has never let him drop below 40% in a match, despite the fact that he's taken on four noble niners. he should do great in a multi-option poll, and in my opinion he's got a great chance to make it out of this division. Ryu should do some great things in this format, and I think he's got enough to take Bowser. by the way, I really hate how two interesting characters are completely wasted here. Mewtwo has all kinds of potential, but not when put up against a near-elite like Bowser and a classic like Ryu. Toad could probably do great in a poll without any Nintendo characters, but in this format he's screwed. it's really sad that Mewtwo has the lowest chance of the five Pokemon to advance. I really think he has the ability to put a scare into one of these characters, but I can't get myself to pick it. three Nintendo guys Ryu has a hardcore fanbase Bowser can't keep up transience's prediction: Ryu - 34.45%, Bowser - 33.23%, Mewtwo - 22.56%, Toad - 9.76% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:12:07 PM | message detail |
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Guest’s Analysis - Janus5000 So I was in my room, and I was just like staring at the bracket thinking about the matches, but then again I was thinking about none of them. Then my mom came in, and I didn't even know she was there. She called my name and I didn't even hear it, and then she started screaming "Ryu! Ryu!" and I go "What, what's the matter?" and she goes "What's the matter with you?" and I go "There's nothing wrong mom." And she goes "Don't tell me that. You have Bowser > Ryu!" And I go "No Mom, that's okay, he's just that much stronger, you know, why don't you get me a Pepsi?" And she goes "No, you have Bowser > Ryu!" And I go "Mom, that's okay, I was just thinking about it, really!" And she goes "No, you're not thinking, you have Bowser > Ryu! Normal winners don't predict that way!" And I go "Mom, just get me a Pepsi, please." All I wanted was a Pepsi, and she wouldn't give it to me. All I wanted was a Pepsi, just one Pepsi, and she wouldn't give it to me. Just a Pepsi. ...So then I got a Pepsi myself, and it occurred to me; I wasn't thinking. For starters, I'd just gotten a Pepsi when Coke is easily better. Even worse, I had Bowser > Ryu. In one corner we have Ryu. Street Fighter hasn't done anything noteworthy recently, but it's not exactly gone and forgotten, and Ryu hasn't fallen too far in these things. Sure, he lost to Bowser pretty badly two years ago, and Nintendo has only gone up since then... Unfortunately for Bowser, so has the number of Nintendo characters in his matches with Ryu. We have Toad, another Mario character, for starters. Now in the most recent favorite Mario character poll (which is admittedly still a year and a half or so old), Toad did about 3% worse than Bowser. Granted, Bowser has a lot more appeal than Toad, but the fact that Toad even got 8% indicates that he won't be total fodder. Plus the fact that Bowser can't even take most of the Mario faithful votes as he normally does isn't the best start for him. As the poll demonstrates, his fanbase isn't exactly the most hardcore; he's well behind Yoshi and even Luigi despite having looked stronger than them on numerous occasions. Then there's Mewtwo, who, like Bowser, is a cool character from a bestselling Nintendo series that sucks ass in SSBM. We've never seen Mewtwo before, and it's quite likely that he ends up significantly stronger than Pikachu. In fact, if any Pokémon turns out to be a decent midcarder, it would be Mewtwo. Sure, some people hate him because of how broken he is, but others love him for similar reasons. He was also never (to my knowledge) too prevalent in the Pokémon anime, and only made brief appearances. Of course, he was in the first Pokémon movie, and it most certainly helped him retain his image of the ultimate badass that you just don't want to mess with. Even just looking at the match picture seems to confirm this even more. Never mind the fact that he sucks in Melee. So not only will Bowser not have the entirety of his Mario fanbase, but he'll lose some of the 'cool' votes he gets as well. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:12:46 PM | message detail |
| Now, it could be pointed out right here that most
of the site likes both the Mario series and 'cool' characters, so
theoretically this shouldn't be a problem for Bowser, right? Wrong. If
you really want to nitpick about what most of the site likes, you
should also realize that most of the site likes Ryu, as has been proven
on many occasions. Not to mention that those visitors that don't
particularly like Nintendo and enjoy anti-voting it only really have
one option here, that being Ryu (and you all thought anti-voting was
useless in a format like this !!)
Of course, Bowser is likely still decently above Ryu, so it shouldn't
be too much of a blowout, but don't count on the King of all Koopas
dodging too much SFF. Janus' Predictions (which are totally not copied from the Oracle Challenge): Bowser with 31.45%, Mewtwo with 16.09%, Ryu (Street Fighter) with 36.72%, and Toad with 15.74%. It doesn't matter I'll probably get hit by a Karma Hunter anyway. Crew Consensus: Suicidal Tendencies aside, Bowser > Ryu is the slight majority over Ryu > Bowser (and Bowser > Mewtwo) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 8:13:12 PM | message detail |
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Round 1- Division 2 Group D Characters Involved: Bowser Summer 2003 Contest East Division - 5 Seed Eastern Round 1 --- Defeated (12) Ness, 74164 [75.07%] - 24627 [24.93%] Eastern Quarterfinals --- Defeated (4) Yoshi, 55510 [56.34%] - 43021 [43.66%] Eastern Semifinals --- Lost to (1) Cloud, 33381 [29.97%] - 77991 [70.03%] Extrapolated Strength --- 17th Place [29.97%] Summer 2004 Contest Hyrule Division - 7 Seed Hyrule Round 1 --- Defeated (10) Guybrush Threepwood, 61731 [82.99%] - 12652 [17.01%] Hyrule Quarterfinals --- Lost to (2) Mario, 23302 [29.35%] - 56098 [70.65%] Extrapolated Strength --- 18th Place [28.88%] Spring 2005 Contest Mushroom Division - 1 Seed Mushroom Round 1 --- Defeated (8) Pyramid Head, 65599 [83.88%] - 12606 [16.12%] Mushroom Semifinal --- Defeated (4) Sigma, 57527 [78.07%] - 16160 [21.93%] Mushroom Final --- Defeated (3) Revolver Ocelot, 54099 [65.99%] - 27878 [34.01%] Final Four --- Lost to (1) Sephiroth, 39385 [40.45%] - 57978 [59.55%] Extrapolated Strength --- 3rd Place [40.45%] Summer 2005 Contest Dream Division - 3 Seed Dream Round 1 --- Defeated (6) Chun-Li, 66227 [65.9%] - 34269 [34.1%] Dream Semifinals --- Defeated (2) Ryu, 53964 [58.98%] - 37536 [41.02%] Dream Finals --- Defeated (1) Kirby, 43392 [52.12%] - 39857 [47.88%] Elite Eight --- Lost to (1) Solid Snake, 50191 [49.41%] - 51387 [50.59%] Extrapolated Strength --- 10th Place [33.49%] Summer 2006 Contest Time Division - 4 Seed Time Round 1 --- Defeated (5) Leon Kennedy, 66925 [55.45%] - 53772 [44.55%] Time Semifinal --- Lost to (1) Crono, 50986 [42.56%] - 68821 [57.44%] Extrapolated Strength --- 18th Place [35.37%] Since his first appearance in 2003, Bowser has always performed very respectably in the contests. Though last year, he seems to have stumbled, that could in fact be some sort of funny business with Crono. Anomaly or not, Bowser is right up there with Auron, Yoshi and Dante in that pack of characters just under the near-elites. Mewtwo One of the nomination drive winners, Mewtwo was expected to be a solid midcarder. We won't get to find that out though, unless he gets back in next year. You can thank Sailor Bacon for throwing in one of our more promising new characters into a fourpack with 2 other Nintendo characters (one being the very potent Bowser). TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| __hiei__ | Posted 9/9/2007 8:13:14 PM | message detail |
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How??? Knuckles got over 27% against Rikku and Vaan, with Yoshi's
presence possibly hurting him. Shadow is getting 26% against Chris
Redfield and Pyramid Head with no excuses. Shadow pretty much sucked it
up today. you're forgeting the part where Auron is the only one making a diference.Shadow is owning the other 2,while knuckles was almost tied with Rikku.the diference is Auron being much stronger than Yoshi,and possibly the most benefited character in this format. DO you really believe Knuckles would do much better than what shadow is doing if you put him there? with Auron in the same poll? no chance. and,as a side note, both PH AND Chris >>>>>>>>Vaan,in terms of strenght. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 8:13:36 PM | message detail |
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Ryu Summer 2002 Contest West Division - 4 Seed Western Round 1 --- Defeated (13)CATS, 46869 [80.79%] - 11145 [19.21%] Western Quarterfinal --- Lost to (5)Samus, 28630 [42.15%] - 39293 [57.85%] Extrapolated Strength --- 10th Place [34.62%] Summer 2003 Contest West Division - 5 Seed Western Round 1 --- Defeated (12)Duke Nukem, 67413 [69.92%] - 28995 [30.08%] Western Quarterfinal --- Defeated (4)Dante, 51258 [54.01%] - 43649 [45.99%] Western Semifinal --- Lost to (1)Solid Snake, 45915 [42.74%] - 61510 [57.26%] Extrapolated Strength --- 18th Place [29.70%] Summer 2004 Contest Chaos Division - 9 Seed Chaos Round 1 --- Defeated (8)KOS-MOS, 52425 [62.13%] - 31954 [37.87%] Chaos Quarterfinal --- Lost to (1)Sonic the Hedgehog, 35057 [44.46%] - 43795 [55.54%] Extrapolated Strength --- 16th Place [29.84%] Summer 2005 Contest Dream Division - 2 Seed Dream Round 1 --- Defeated (7) Rikku, 59210 [55.72%] - 47054 [44.28%] Dream Semifinal --- Lost to (3) Bowser, 37536 [41.02%] - 53964 [58.98%] Extrapolated Strength --- 25th Place [27.47%] Summer 2006 Contest Destiny Division - 6 Seed Destiny Round 1 --- Defeated (6) Kratos, 66198 [57.11%] - 49713 [42.89%] Destiny Semifinal --- Lost to (2) Mega Man, 50342 [41.96%] - 69626 [58.04%] Extrapolated Strength --- 19th Place [35.16%] The fighting game icon has a great career in these contests. He has never had an opponent break 60% on him, despite going up against 4 Noble Niners. Though he looked a little off in 2005 (disappointing against Rikku then getting creamed by Bowser), Ryu seemed back to normal when he beat up Kratos and performed decently against Mega Man last year. Ryu has a very good shot at first place here. Toad The Mushroom Kingdom inhabitant who has been around since the original Mario Bros makes his contest debut here by getting stuck in a match with 2 stronger NIntendo characters and Ryu. Most would expect him to be around Ness' level in strength, but we may never know. Predictions: This match seems easy at a first glance. Bowser completely embarassed Ryu in 2005, so first instinct would say to take Bowser > Ryu. However, last year's contest, with Bowser disappointing against Crono and Ryu impressing against Mega Man, coupled with the fact that Bowser has 2 lower Nintendo characters leeching his support, makes Ryu > Bowser a very possible, very sexy upset pick. There doesn't seem to be any reason for Bowser/Ryu 2k5 other than Bowser perhaps riding a wave of support, and a high seed to a better than expected performance. Him giving Snake a run for his money is evidence of this. As for percentages, Bowser and Ryu should get the lion's share here, but Ryu should be far enough ahead of King Koopa that we shouldn't have too much excitement today. TuRtLe's Prediction: Ryu 38%, Bowser 32%, Mewtwo 20%% Toad 10% TuRtLe's Bracket: Ryu > Bowser TuRtLe's Vote: Ryu TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 8:13:57 PM | message detail |
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Actually, I think now Ryu may be the favorite...? <_< --- delicious cats Commit it to memory. |
| ZFS | Posted 9/9/2007 8:13:58 PM | message detail |
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three Nintendo guys Ryu has a hardcore fanbase Bowser can't keep up this haiku is full of liez --- Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 8:14:14 PM | message detail |
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hey moltar sry about breaking that up but BIG BLACK WANGS is on the rise in the oracle so ^5 imho. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 8:14:42 PM | message detail |
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I'd take Vaan to at the very least 60-40 PH or Chris 1 on 1 TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:16:03 PM | message detail |
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Actually, I think now Ryu may be the favorite...? <_< Yeah yeah, money money, yeah yeah, that's right. hey moltar sry about breaking that up but BIG BLACK WANGS is on the rise in the oracle so ^5 imho. aww yeah black power --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Bracket: Ryu > Bowser - Vote: Bowser (24/28) |
| transience | Posted 9/9/2007 8:22:43 PM | message detail |
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this haiku is full of liez bowser is so screwed getting support from aitch emm? board 8 says "oh, crap" --- "where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 9/9/2007 8:26:47 PM | message detail |
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you're forgeting the part where Auron is the only one making a
diference.Shadow is owning the other 2,while knuckles was almost tied
with Rikku.the diference is Auron being much stronger than Yoshi,and
possibly the most benefited character in this format. Shadow is owning the other two? Shadow lost an update to Pyramid Head. That's something he just can't live down. Utterly pathetic. Auron is hitting expectations - it's Shadow who's doing poorly and Pyramid Head who's doing great, so no blaming this on Auron. DO you really believe Knuckles would do much better than what shadow is doing if you put him there? with Auron in the same poll? no chance. Absolutely, Knuckles would be doing better. He did better in a poll with far more quality characters, Auron > Yoshi notwithstanding. and,as a side note, both PH AND Chris >>>>>>>>Vaan,in terms of strenght. XD. I really don't have anything else to say to that. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg |
| HaRRicH | Posted 9/9/2007 8:33:35 PM | message detail |
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Whoever said 27% over Rikku+Vaan is better than 26% over PH+Chris is
right, especially if Yoshi somehow hurt Knuckles and if Yoshi isn't TOO
far behind Auron (though probably not any closer than Bowser is).
There's absolutely no way I'd take Shadow over Knuckles now. None. I'm
sad to look back and think I could have, and Shadow ain't even that bad
of a character (though his voice acting suuuuuuuuucks). Just to check though...if Knuckles and Shadow switched placed, would you rather have Yoshi > Shadow or Yoshi > Rikku? --- PETITION: a "Contest Suggestions" board. Life-changing details below: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=35717580 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 8:33:37 PM | message detail |
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Auron and Yoshi are close enough in strength, but I'll take the entire Square fanbase over Chris and PH any day. TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:36:01 PM | message detail |
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Auron is a good bit above Yoshi if you ask me. Yoshi > Rikku if Shadow was in that match. easily. --- Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 9/9/2007 8:39:20 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait until Round 2 when you all will be singing a different tune. --- Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe Bowser/Mewtwo/Ryu/Toad - Bracket: Ryu > Bowser - Vote: Bowser (24/28) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 8:55:41 PM | message detail |
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So trends for this match. Everybody gets 0 votes until the morning? TuRtLe ~~~ "Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1 BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 8:57:01 PM | message detail |
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I would have taken Yoshi > Rikku pre-contest, this only confirms my beliefs. --- Explicit Content. I wish Lei Fang were my mom. I'd like drug her and feel her up and stuff. - Ken |
| charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 8:58:32 PM | message detail |
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If Ryu wants to win he has to start out winning. --- The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28 |
| therealmnm | Posted 9/9/2007 8:58:52 PM | message detail |
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This match will be closer between all 4 characters than a lot of people think! --- Currently playing: Call of Duty 2, Maverick Hunter X, Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney, Dead Rising, Tomb Raider Legend |
