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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 472

charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:26:05 PM | message detail
That update was all Toad.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28
smitelf | Posted 9/9/2007 9:26:11 PM | message detail
This does give me some confidence for Bowser > Auron. If you give all of Toad's votes to Bowser and say 70% of Mewtwo's support to the Koopa King, he'd be roasting Ryu on a stick right now.

Voodoo math. There's no reason to believe that Bowser would get that much of the support for Mewtwo and Toad just because he's Nintendo.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
transience | Posted 9/9/2007 9:26:12 PM | message detail
I don't think you can call this a good or a bad sign for Bowser. at the very least, he's got it locked up vs. Ryu in round 3 if he stays within a percent or two with the two Nintendo guys sapping votes from him. you simply have no way of knowing between him and Auron though. don't draw conclusions based on something that's impossible to tell!
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"where the heck does diablo get his votes from on weekends? He should be losing because christians are fresh from the church and voting against evil" -voltch
Tediz247 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:26:26 PM | message detail
Ryu with a decent gain there.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:28:32 PM | message detail
Ryu has got it locked up at this point. It's not as if Bowser is very strong with the day vote, either...I mean he lost it to Leon Kennedy. Come on.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:28:34 PM | message detail
For Bowser/Auron, look no further than their matches against a common opponent last year. Bowser got 43% on Crono and Auron got 45%. I think Auron should have next round safely tucked away.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:29:54 PM | message detail
Wait, how did we not see the obvious comparison?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2080&num=2

Bowser loses the day vote to Chun-Li.

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greatone10 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:30:07 PM | message detail
Wow, a 2% difference. Very insurmountable for Bowser there.
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This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:30:32 PM | message detail
If Mewtwo could donate some of his percentage to Ryu and Toad, my oracle will be looking very sexy.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 9:30:36 PM | message detail
For Bowser/Auron, look no further than their matches against a common opponent last year. Bowser got 43% on Crono and Auron got 45%. I think Auron should have next round safely tucked away.

For Jill/Ocelot, look no further than their matches against Peach and Pac-Man respectively. I think Jill should have that match safely tucked away.

Note: not saying Bowser has a chance because of anything, just proving a point.
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Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow
Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 9:30:36 PM | message detail
Keep it up Bowz...
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
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TimJab | Posted 9/9/2007 9:30:51 PM | message detail
Chun-Li had TJF.
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smitelf | Posted 9/9/2007 9:31:16 PM | message detail
From KamikazePotato
Wait, how did we not see the obvious comparison?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2080&num=2

Bowser loses the day vote to Chun-Li.


Great find. Bowser's not looking good.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
Draco1214 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:31:26 PM | message detail
Bowser loses the day vote to Chun-Li.

And Bowser crushed Ryu with it.
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Currently Playing: Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, Persona 3
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/9/2007 9:31:50 PM | message detail
Mewtwo's impressing the hell out of me. He probably would have beaten Shadow yesterday.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
ZFS | Posted 9/9/2007 9:31:54 PM | message detail
It may not be worth much considering it's the Power Hour, but I'm liking these smaller updates for Ryu here. I'm keeping the hope alive on this until morning. Maybe Bowser can comeback if Ryu doesn't get out too far ahead -- admittedly, it's not looking too hot right now.

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Experiment status report update: Metroid project 'Dread' is nearing the final stages of completion.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 9:32:04 PM | message detail
...am I just crazy for thinking that perhaps the BEST comparison of Bowser and Ryu's day vote would be found in... I dunno, Ryu/Bowser? <___________<
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:32:10 PM | message detail
Wait, how did we not see the obvious comparison?

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2080&num=2

Bowser loses the day vote to Chun-Li.


Not really. Chun-Li's day numbers were quite a bit under what she was getting at night.

Then again, she didn't drop too badly there. I have faith that Ryu should be able to hold up tomorrow, if he doesn't build an insurmountable lead overnight.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:33:01 PM | message detail
...am I just crazy for thinking that perhaps the BEST comparison of Bowser and Ryu's day vote would be found in... I dunno, Ryu/Bowser? <___________<

You shut up!

Man I am tired right now. I keep saying stupid things.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:34:28 PM | message detail
Time | Bowser | Ryu
01:00 | 56.97% | 43.03%
02:00 | 55.42% | 44.58%
03:00 | 56.34% | 43.66%
04:00 | 56.67% | 43.33%
05:00 | 58.65% | 41.35%
06:00 | 62.05% | 37.95%
07:00 | 63.53% | 36.47%
08:00 | 63.52% | 36.48%
09:00 | 63.29% | 36.71%
10:00 | 61.93% | 38.07%
11:00 | 61.62% | 38.38%
12:00 | 59.61% | 40.39%
13:00 | 58.83% | 41.17%
14:00 | 59.38% | 40.62%
15:00 | 58.58% | 41.42%
16:00 | 56.80% | 43.20%
17:00 | 56.71% | 43.29%
18:00 | 56.23% | 43.77%
19:00 | 57.42% | 42.58%
20:00 | 54.29% | 45.71%
21:00 | 52.71% | 47.29%
22:00 | 55.17% | 44.83%
23:00 | 52.21% | 47.79%
00:00 | 53.00% | 47.00%

Timeshift ahead three hours, and remember that this took place during the summer.
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MartinFF7 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:34:45 PM | message detail
Um... how did Bowser lose the day vote to Chun-Li? because his % went down? His lead in raw vote numbers almost quadrupled from 7 am (i.e. typical start of the "day") until the end...

But we'll see, I guess.

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I'll see you in Hell! (From Heaven!)
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:35:02 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=2105&num=2

Alright...wait, what? Bowser crushes Ryu with the morning vote, not the day vote. Ryu increased during the day vote. So if he weathers the morning vote, he'll be looking okay.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:35:26 PM | message detail
Time | Bowser | Ryu
01:00 | 56.97% | 43.03%
02:00 | 55.42% | 44.58%
03:00 | 56.34% | 43.66%
04:00 | 56.67% | 43.33%
05:00 | 58.65% | 41.35%
06:00 | 62.05% | 37.95%
07:00 | 63.53% | 36.47%
08:00 | 63.52% | 36.48%
09:00 | 63.29% | 36.71%
10:00 | 61.93% | 38.07%
11:00 | 61.62% | 38.38%

12:00 | 59.61% | 40.39%
13:00 | 58.83% | 41.17%
14:00 | 59.38% | 40.62%
15:00 | 58.58% | 41.42%
16:00 | 56.80% | 43.20%
17:00 | 56.71% | 43.29%
18:00 | 56.23% | 43.77%
19:00 | 57.42% | 42.58%
20:00 | 54.29% | 45.71%
21:00 | 52.71% | 47.29%
22:00 | 55.17% | 44.83%
23:00 | 52.21% | 47.79%
00:00 | 53.00% | 47.00%


Ryu is so screwed

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
PortugalTheMann | Posted 9/9/2007 9:35:52 PM | message detail
RYU WILL NOT HAVE ANY OF THESE SMALL GAINS

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KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:36:08 PM | message detail
And since I probably just said something stupid again, remember that I'm new to being a stats topic guy. I'm learning as I go.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
smitelf | Posted 9/9/2007 9:37:04 PM | message detail
Bowser would have to have a very good day vote to take the lead from Ryu, though, given that Mewtwo and Toad are likely to have a similar day vote advantage. I don't see that happening. Bowser's cooked.
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Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:37:30 PM | message detail
Alright...wait, what? Bowser crushes Ryu with the morning vote, not the day vote. Ryu increased during the day vote. So if he weathers the morning vote, he'll be looking okay.

Once again, Ryu's day percentage is quite a bit lower than his night numbers. Bowser cleanly "won" the day vote there. But Ryu has always had a great night vote. If he can get a good lead by the time 7 am rolls around, it might be good enough. If he can get out of that black hole of a morning vote, he should be golden.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
red sox 777 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:37:54 PM | message detail
Alright...wait, what? Bowser crushes Ryu with the morning vote, not the day vote. Ryu increased during the day vote. So if he weathers the morning vote, he'll be looking okay.

Morning vote during summer or weekends = afterschool vote on non-summer weekdays.
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Character Battle VI -- Points: 21/28 -- T-1232 (737 way)
Bracket: Ryu > Bowser -- Vote: Bowser
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:38:11 PM | message detail
That was really weird, right before that update I thought "350" o_O
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:38:29 PM | message detail
Morning vote during summer or weekends = afterschool vote on non-summer weekdays.

Ah, okay.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/9/2007 9:38:53 PM | message detail
Bowser would have to have a very good day vote to take the lead from Ryu, though, given that Mewtwo and Toad are likely to have a similar day vote advantage. I don't see that happening. Bowser's cooked.

That doesn't really make any sense. Nintendo having the day advantage means that all 3 of the will increase with the day vote. It won't be as drastic as it would be 1 on 1, but it may be enough if Ryu fails to build a solid enough lead.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 9:40:29 PM | message detail
Nice gain by Bowser.
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smitelf | Posted 9/9/2007 9:40:57 PM | message detail
That doesn't really make any sense. Nintendo having the day advantage means that all 3 of the will increase with the day vote. It won't be as drastic as it would be 1 on 1, but it may be enough if Ryu fails to build a solid enough lead.

There are only so many day votes to go around. If there are three characters in the poll who are likely to have a strong day vote, it means that the advantage of each is diluted. So Bowser being strong during the day may allow him to increase by a percentage point or two if he's lucky, but more than that is unlikely given how strong Mewtwo is turning out to be.
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Official Queen ***** of the Universe!
Political Compass: -0.38, -4.21
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:41:35 PM | message detail
Bowser will hav to slow Ryu's rate before the morning if he wants a chance.

Although the natural drop in votes during the night might help enough.
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:43:10 PM | message detail
I'll feel really good about Ryu if can build his lead to about 2000 (probably won't need that much, but I want to be sure)
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/9/2007 9:43:42 PM | message detail
Nice gain by Bowser.

Why do people say this when Bowser doesn't even cut do they just wanna make me waste 3 seconds checking this done deal :(
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/9/2007 9:43:46 PM | message detail
Bowser craps with the night vote. so I'm pretty sure Ryu has this almost.
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Today: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow
Tomorrow: Bowser > Ryu - Vote: Mewtwo - Points: 20/24.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:44:40 PM | message detail
I thought he was being sarcastic when he said that >_>
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
Adept of Aiur | Posted 9/9/2007 9:44:40 PM | message detail
Can we talk about how Mewtwo is a baller.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:44:41 PM | message detail
Why do people say this when Bowser doesn't even cut do they just wanna make me waste 3 seconds checking this done deal :(

Well, he did only lose 30 votes instead of 80 to Ryu. He stalled Frog style!
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AerisDS | Posted 9/9/2007 9:45:33 PM | message detail
HUGE Ryu update.
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Now in portable form!
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 9/9/2007 9:45:36 PM | message detail
HOLY CRAP

Ryu smacks the **** out of everyone
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Pokemon Pearl Code: 2663-9266-2709
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/9/2007 9:45:39 PM | message detail
WOW. Ridiculous gain by Ryu.
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SC2k7: 23/28, tied for 305th
Today's Pick: Bowser > Ryu
Majin Lou | Posted 9/9/2007 9:45:49 PM | message detail
Holy ****, 121 vote update for Ryu.
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charmander6000 | Posted 9/9/2007 9:45:53 PM | message detail
Holy **** Ryu.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 8: Ryu > Bowser Points: 24/28
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:04 PM | message detail
My god Ryu.
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Who Cares? | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:07 PM | message detail
SHINKUU HADOKEN
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Current Points: 26
Maximum Possible Points: 766/768
MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:07 PM | message detail
Holy crap at that Bowser dive. And Bowser didn't even gain 50 on Mewtwo.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
I don't like Haley Scarnato
Gaddswell | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:09 PM | message detail
Ok, taking what little we can get from this, where would you folks peg Mewtwo on BL?
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Finally a damn bracket!
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/9/2007 9:46:14 PM | message detail
Vyse>Nightmare lol
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doo doo doo I got no sig
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