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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 471

Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/8/2007 7:41:51 AM | message detail
i wonder why square is taking so long to remake FFVII,just making an anoucement would give cloud a massive boost and they would make an instant fortune.

I still dont understand the logic.

In what way would a mere announcement cause Gfaqs to be flooded with FFVII fans?

The only potential draw to the site would be millions of fans deciding to replay FF7 on their PlayStations before the remake is released? I dont see how much that could possibly help..

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Eff Dee
__hiei__ | Posted 9/8/2007 7:43:18 AM | message detail
I think you're overestimating the intelect of voters

as long as games are released and sell considerably well,the character will get some sort of boost.

that,and i'm not referring to shadow's game only,but to the fact he's been more important than Knuckles in most of the later games.
voltch | Posted 9/8/2007 7:44:12 AM | message detail
well sayin they would remake the game would lead to hype with trailers and all?i'm sure the hype effect would make em stronger.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
Warsola | Posted 9/8/2007 7:45:31 AM | message detail
If Dirge of Cerberus can boost Vincent, Sonic next-gen and Shadow the Hedgehog can boost Shadow. <_<
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And if we armed them all with two swords, we'd have four times the votes!
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/8/2007 7:48:52 AM | message detail
Except Dirge of Cerberus wasn't terrible.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/8/2007 7:50:46 AM | message detail
Advent Children also boosted Vincent IMO.

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Eff Dee
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/8/2007 7:53:34 AM | message detail
Shadow the Hedgehog wasnt terrible either. It was getting reviews of like 7/10 or so. Which isn't great, yes. But it's certainly ok. And it was much better received than say Sonic Heroes.


And Dirge of Cerberus was actually terrible. ¬_¬

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I made a promise and I'm here to keep it. Today, I put my past behind me. THIS IS WHO I AM - Shadow the Hedgehog
jonthomson | Posted 9/8/2007 7:54:17 AM | message detail
Ocelot appears to be accelerating, if anything
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Jon Thomson - 16/20, next picks: Cloud beats Jill
Bracket analysis: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=37520975
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2007 7:55:05 AM | message detail
it was better received than Sonic Heroes my ass. everywhere I go talking about that game, all I get are thumbs down. Sonic Heroes is more of an indifference.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/8/2007 7:58:17 AM | message detail
I gambled that MGS would be very strong this year. But people seem to think I'm insane for having Liquid Snake > Alucard....

Does Ocelots' showing today change matters any?

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Eff Dee
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:00:41 AM | message detail
I picked Ocelot and Big Boss, but not Liquid.

And uh, what's going on here? Jill's occasional stalls and minor gains have completely disappeared. o.O
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
consolefreak | Posted 9/8/2007 8:03:16 AM | message detail
Does Ocelots' showing today change matters any?

Absolutely. I can definitely see Liquid advancing now. In fact, if I could change my bracket for that match I probably would.
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'At least your sword is to the point.'
*One_Winged_Ange*
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/8/2007 8:04:26 AM | message detail
I don't know much about Liquid Snake after the first MGS. Maybe he is in the MGS4 trailer? Anyway, we can say Liquid will have a pretty similar strength to Ocelot as Ocelot is pretty much Liquid because...

*spoilers for MGS 2 I think*








Liquid Snake lives through Ocelot's arm...




*end spoilers*


but I think Alucard will still be stronger than either Ocelot or Liquid. Sorry just rambling... >_>
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Yesmar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:04:47 AM | message detail
I posted this in another topic last night, but it was only around 20 minutes before the match started, so nobody really paid attention.

Just for fun, I took some hours of character's comebacks/voteshifts, and adjusted for vote inflation (divided the number of votes by (match in question's votals*) X 10^-6 [I used 100,000 as my base for votals] )

Clearly this will not be accurate, since you would have to further make adjustments based on how many votes were coming in at the time that the comeback occured as well, and when it comes to vote shifts (which I'm really only using for Master Hand/Fenix) you have to make further adjustments for how much the lead would increase naturally if the previous update's percentage had stayed the same.

Note: All times are EST

Marcus Fenix against Kefka:

(1st part of comeback [until ~2:30])= 83.3333 votes per hour
(2nd part of comeback/voteshift) [until ~3:30])= 513.333 votes per hour
(3rd part of comeback/voteshift [until~7:30])= 739.167 votes per hour

Axel against Frog:

(1st part of comeback [~3:00-4:30]) = 217.15 votes per hour
(2nd part of comeback [until 8:00]) = 299.73 votes per hour

Frog against Axel = 220.08 votes per hour

Some other classic matches

Mario against Crono (final hour and 45 minutes) = 367.33 votes per hour

Duck Hunt against Donkey Kong = 244.70 votes per hour


Halo against Starcraft (until ~5:45 PM): 120.62 votes per hour
Starcraft against Halo (from ~ 10 PM until the end): 244.49 votes per hour

Starcraft against Wind Waker (from ~9 PM until 2:30 AM) = 455.48 votes per hour

Master Chief against Frog (from ~3 PM until ~8 PM) = 554.04 votes per hour

Master Hand against Kuja (from ~7:15 AM until ~1:45 PM) = 126.35 votes per hour

Now, here I'm gonna actually play nice and take Master Hand's percentage from almost seven hours ago, and see what he *should have* as a vote lead for these votals

Master Hand against Kuja (from ~2:50 PM until ~9:30 PM) = 882.53 votes per hour


Final note: If you apply my previous calculations (in MH Vs. Kuja) to Super Mario RPG Vs. Street Fighter II from the time SMRPG's comeback starts to the moment the percentage starts to stabalize you get 953.38 votes per hour.

Phew, I'm done.

*I used 120,000 for today's match up.
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Twisted Misters: 2007 World Series of Pop Culture Champions!!!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:07:11 AM | message detail
And uh, what's going on here? Jill's occasional stalls and minor gains have completely disappeared. o.O

the one with the much worse day vote is showing.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:07:28 AM | message detail
Time | Cloud . . | Jill . . . . | Zolom | Ocelot
01:00 | 53.43% | 17.87% | 08.29% | 20.41%
02:00 | 57.14% | 16.96% | 06.01% | 19.89%
03:00 | 57.64% | 17.08% | 05.74% | 19.53%
04:00 | 57.13% | 16.69% | 05.89% | 20.29%
05:00 | 59.98% | 15.92% | 05.40% | 18.70%
06:00 | 58.22% | 16.41% | 06.45% | 18.92%
07:00 | 58.99% | 16.39% | 04.85% | 19.77%
08:00 | 59.04% | 16.74% | 05.86% | 18.36%
09:00 | 62.57% | 15.30% | 05.28% | 16.85%
10:00 | 62.50% | 15.14% | 05.39% | 16.96%
11:00 | 61.41% | 15.68% | 04.98% | 17.93%

Since there's no afterschool vote, the last few hours are probably what the entire day is going to look like. Poor Zolom.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Brawl.jpg
charmander6000 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:08:49 AM | message detail
I think the only MGS characters I've picked to advance was Raiden and Solid Snake.

Well it was nice being on the leaderboard (twice) but it looks like today will be last day on it. Starting after Auron/Shadow I took a lot of bad picks, but if Mega Man > Samus plays out I could make a return.
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The Board 8 BOP - http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB6%20BOP.xls
Match 6: Cloud Strife > Jill Valentine Points: 18/20
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:11:54 AM | message detail
Liquid doesn't have the people from the PS2 generation on his side. Nobody is going to vote for him because of MGS2 or MGS3, while Ocelot and Big Boss have continued to be relevant in the series.

At least, that's the logic I used. I have Alucard > Ness, actually. D:
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
linkhatesganon | Posted 9/8/2007 8:12:03 AM | message detail
I haven't played DoC, and I doubt I like. But casual surely enjoyed it, and Vincent has a great design, so, that can boost him
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Onimimi's films rules!
Forceful Dragon | Posted 9/8/2007 8:12:25 AM | message detail
I also have Mega Man > Samus.

In addition to my Liquid Snake > Alucard, its quite possibly my scariest match.

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Eff Dee
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:13:53 AM | message detail
Jill coming back would be simply stunning. It would defy all past trends, and as much as we hope for that to happen time and again it just doesn't...

Unless she can magically start gaining with a diluted Nintendo backed day vote, this is over.

Actually being 1600 down, that's way too much for her.

Damn it, I feel so dirty now that I'm going to have red on my bracket.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:14:49 AM | message detail
Mega Man > Samus?

More like Cloud > Mega Man

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
voltch | Posted 9/8/2007 8:15:06 AM | message detail
a lot of people will see red in their bracket for the first time i imagine.
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Rufus shinra destroyed my bracket in the sc2k6 contest.
linkhatesganon | Posted 9/8/2007 8:15:29 AM | message detail
Cloud is sucking all votes, you know. See how his percentage is been increased, rather than the other 3
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Onimimi's films rules!
DpObliVion | Posted 9/8/2007 8:16:21 AM | message detail
Is it officially over for Jill yet? Being a Saturday, and what with them already having similar voting patterns, I see no reason for her to make up 1672 votes.

Glad I got this one after having Kefka > Tom yesterday. Hopefully this mixes up the leaderboards quite a bit.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:22:22 AM | message detail
I was just looking at the later rounds, and saw another possible big upset, Sonic > Snake in the semis. Ganondorf should be in that poll, can he take enough of Snake's Nintendo boost to put him at 2k5 levels, letting Sonic slip through.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
__Smurf__ | Posted 9/8/2007 8:23:36 AM | message detail
It'll be intresting to see just how big a fraud (or not) Snake is from that match.

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I made a promise and I'm here to keep it. Today, I put my past behind me. THIS IS WHO I AM - Shadow the Hedgehog
lettuce Kefka | Posted 9/8/2007 8:33:56 AM | message detail
Zolom got 7 votes in one update earlier! Badass!
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Ahem! There's LETTUCE on my boots!
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/8/2007 8:41:17 AM | message detail
Ryu H barely beat this piece of flop.

Prediction: Riku > Roxas
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caps
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:42:51 AM | message detail
Roxas isn''t going anywhere. Ryu H would beat Axel one-on-one.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:47:22 AM | message detail
Roxas would beat Axel 1-on-1, though. I'm not saying Roxas has any chance for second, though.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Haste_2 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:47:33 AM | message detail
Argh, though.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/8/2007 8:48:53 AM | message detail
I'd also like to point out that I'm number 11 on the leaderboard, and thus I must be right. >_>
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caps
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:49:35 AM | message detail
I concede to your ability to predict these contests.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2007 8:50:21 AM | message detail
Unless she can magically start gaining with a diluted Nintendo backed day vote

Stop.
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 9/8/2007 8:50:36 AM | message detail
Jill cuts by 4! Comeback!

Oh, sorry, no discussion of matches allowed in here, I forgot.
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caps
MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:50:48 AM | message detail
I don't think Roxas would beat Axel. IMO it would be like Auron(Axel) and Tidus(Roxas).
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"To be forgotten is worse than death"-Freya FFIX
Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/8/2007 8:51:30 AM | message detail
I was just looking at the later rounds, and saw another possible big upset, Sonic > Snake in the semis. Ganondorf should be in that poll, can he take enough of Snake's Nintendo boost to put him at 2k5 levels, letting Sonic slip through.

Sonic could beat Crono last year because of all the eagerness Sonic fans and old school gamers got from his supposed-to-be revolutionised game for the next consoles at the time. The game came out right after the contest (I think it was end of November). But as we all know, it was a flop and it flop so badly that no one will take any new Sonic games seriously anymore, so I don't think he can beat Snake now (with SSBB and MGS4 hype) even if Snake is going to be SFF'd by Ganondorf (not going to affect much IMO).
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Xcarvengerx (scar-fan-gear-rex) /n/ = A plethora of quixotic illumination.
The cream of Chocobo fanboyism.
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/8/2007 8:51:48 AM | message detail
From MadGamer_11 Posted 9/8/2007 11:50:48 AM #087
I don't think Roxas would beat Axel. IMO it would be like Auron(Axel) and Tidus(Roxas).

This.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
KamikazePotato | Posted 9/8/2007 8:53:27 AM | message detail
No way Roxas beats Axel. Roxas had serious potential, but Square decided to throw him away 1/30 of the way into the game.
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doo doo doo I got no sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2007 8:54:21 AM | message detail
but guyz what about him being a *stupid SPOILERS* proxy huh
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 9/8/2007 8:59:10 AM | message detail
Considering KAIRI could very well be stronger than Axel, I don't Axel is very well liked by the KH fanbase. Axel being compared to Auron is laughable, since he's most well-known for KH2 appearance. If Axel never existed, most of you would be saying Roxas is stronger than Kairi.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 9/8/2007 8:59:55 AM | message detail
I don't Axel is very well liked by the KH fanbase.

whatwhatwhatwhatwhat
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Moltar Status: The Analysis Crew...believe
Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (16/20)
Haste_2 | Posted 9/8/2007 9:01:11 AM | message detail
Kairi's the thing. More liked than Roxas? Doubtful.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
Lady Ashe | Posted 9/8/2007 9:02:28 AM | message detail
I can see Kairi being more liked than Roxas, if only because KH2 has the crappiest intro of any game ever.
~~~
Ashe. The Cream of Final Fantasy Fanboyism.
Embok.
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2007 9:05:09 AM | message detail
Yeah when I vote against Roxas in a handful of days I'll be all like "This is for making me do part-time jobs for half an hour we didn't even get to go to the beach in the end DAMN YOU SEA-SALT ICE CREAM"
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delicious cats
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/8/2007 9:10:22 AM | message detail
Sonic could beat Crono last year because of all the eagerness Sonic fans and old school gamers got from his supposed-to-be revolutionised game for the next consoles at the time. The game came out right after the contest (I think it was end of November). But as we all know, it was a flop and it flop so badly that no one will take any new Sonic games seriously anymore, so I don't think he can beat Snake now (with SSBB and MGS4 hype) even if Snake is going to be SFF'd by Ganondorf (not going to affect much IMO).

No, Sonic beat Crono because Crono dropped to the Mega Man/Sonic level.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 9/8/2007 9:13:45 AM | message detail
*laughs at the people who thought Jill > Ocelot was a lock*

Once again, you can't take anything like that for granted with this format. It's completely different from one-on-one, and it's not like Jill beats Ocelot handily anyway. I still think Ocelot's got a shot for second next round. I think Marcus's power is getting inflated because: 1. He was facing Kefka, who has a bottomless pit of a day vote, and 2. He was competing for first with such a high percentage already. It won't be so easy to do that next time because of Cloud's awesome day vote and the fact that he's likely going to have less than 20% of the vote. Still, it might be another Frog/Axel, only with Marcus coming out on top in the end. I don't know why people are surprised Jill lost. You had to think Ocelot was a bigger favorite in the MGS fanbase, really. At least I did anyway. I hope Ocelot gets an MGS3 picture next round, just to make things interesting. He got that one against Wily, and it was the only time he didn't have a pitiful day vote.

I feel confident that Ocelot is going to hold on here, even though he's not dominantly ahead. Cloud's only going to keep increasing, and he's sucking up so much of the vote that Jill's going to have a hard time making big cuts even if she DOES start increasing. Plus, I don't think she has the day vote for it.

Also, my three accounts are still on the leaderboard! Huzzah! I need to check if they're the Cloud > Ocelot ones or the Cloud > Jill ones...
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
KnuxBeatMagus | Posted 9/8/2007 9:14:32 AM | message detail
*eyes bulge at the 67.41% update for Cloud*
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2088
Never forget.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/8/2007 9:15:13 AM | message detail
what's next to take for granted? CATS not having a shot? heh.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
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