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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 470

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:45:06 PM | message detail
Jill has REmake and all the other RE games that appeared on the Gamecube and Wii behind her. Ocelot has what, TTS? With how similar these 2 are, I would imagine that the Nintendo RE games should be enough to give Jill a small advantage with the day vote.

TuRtLe
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:45:10 PM | message detail
Because he's freakin CATS.

yeah, the freaking CATS who beat Kefka in the villains poll in which Diablo scored last place. Diablo ~ Peach. if Peach isn't as favored in this format as Diablo, he's in trouble. not to mention just like Diablo, she has to contend with Meta-Knight.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:45:17 PM | message detail
Dude, were talking about the same CATS, right? The one that lost to ansem? >_>
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ZFS | Posted 9/7/2007 9:45:50 PM | message detail
Jill has REmake and all the other RE games that appeared on the Gamecube and Wii behind her.

what are you on

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linkz016 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:45:57 PM | message detail
Go Jill !
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Gaddswell | Posted 9/7/2007 9:46:01 PM | message detail
Nice stall.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:46:19 PM | message detail
guys, this is a four-way poll. hardcore fanbases frolic in this format. stop thinking of one-on-one matches like that.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:46:21 PM | message detail
I think maybe I should clarify; instead of "board favorite" maybe what I mean is more of "first hour voter favorite". Which I think tends to go along board preference lines.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:46:44 PM | message detail
Once again, Meta-Knight being in there is the absolute best thing that could happen for CATS.

He has Sephiroth stealing everyone else's votes, and he has the remaining 2 characters splitting the Nintendo support.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:47:01 PM | message detail
Let's run through a quick scenario.

Let's be generous to both Sephiroth and CATS and say they finish with 60% and 15%, respectively. That still leaves 25% of the vote up for grabs between two Nintendo characters. Peach is stronger than Meta Knight, and if she SFFs him to the tiniest degree, she can still beat CATS.

I took CATS with the hope that Sephiroth would finish as high as the mid-60's against his weak competition, but seeing as how Cloud might not even finish close to 60%, that seems like an impossibility at the moment.
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Majin Lou | Posted 9/7/2007 9:47:54 PM | message detail
Heh, Ocelot's lead is still 228. I'm gonna go play Persona 3 and hope Ocelot has added a few hundred more votes to his lead by the time I get back. >_>
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greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:15 PM | message detail
I'm just curious. Is there any REAL evidence about this hardcore fanbase doing better in this format crap meaning anything? Zelos has a hardcore fanbase (that I am a part of), and the lot of good it did him.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:20 PM | message detail
Like I said HM, Jill and Ocelot have similar trends, but Ocelot bled like crazy against Nemesis. Jill has some games on Nintendo consoles that can't possibly hurt her in the day.

It's not like she's going up against Sora here, this is Revolver Ocelot we're talking about.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
transience | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:26 PM | message detail
hmm. good show, Ocelot. it's pretty much expected that he would take the lead, but I didn't think it would be this convincingly. I don't have a lot of hope for Jill here. that said, those Nemesis comparisons scare me. THAT said, this is supposedly a front-loaded day vote, so maybe Jill will improve in an hour's time? too early to call, but not too early to say "aww yeah" if you're an Ocelot guy.

Jill spent the entire day heavily bleeding percentage to Sheena. I'll eat my hat if she wins the day vote here.

stop using bad comparisons. if you're gonna say this, say it to somebody without a good day vote -- after all, Kratos beat Diablo pretty good with it, and you would say he has a decent day vote.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:27 PM | message detail
Pointless trivia: this is about when Jill started stalling Peach, as the NPH started wearing off. It was a long stall, though - Jill made minimal gains until 2:30 AM.
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:30 PM | message detail
CATS doesnt get hardcore votes, he gets joke votes when people dont like who he is up against


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UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2007 9:48:44 PM | message detail
Peach has a hardcore fanbase, thankyouverymuch.

~*ST*~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:23 PM | message detail
I still have faith that Cloud can push for 60%.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:24 PM | message detail
I'm not going to argue about the CATS match until it comes though. so, I'm done.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:30 PM | message detail
Peach has a hardcore fanbase, thankyouverymuch.


So its you and...who else?
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Janus5000 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:36 PM | message detail
Peach isn't exactly a character with a lot of hardcore fans; CATS at least has his army.
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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:39 PM | message detail
The thing that makes me think CATS has a legit shot is Meta Knight's presence.

If Meta Knight gets a kickass pic (and really, how could he possibly not?), he might leech from her significantly enough to boost CATS above her.

Now we need a non-Eggplant CATS - Eggplant CATS has no chance, for real. But the odds of Face CATS look pretty good from the pictures so far.

Fact is...I think Meta Knight>Peach is quite possible too, yet no one seems to be discussing that. I think that's more likely than CATS>Peach.

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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/7/2007 9:49:53 PM | message detail
Zolomy........... ;_;


So everyone has written off Meta Knight for even have a chance on beating Peach?
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:50:19 PM | message detail
If CATS wins i may just leave this board and this site and never come back.
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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:50:20 PM | message detail
In fact, we might see the penultimate mind**** and get Meta Knight>CATS>Peach.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:50:22 PM | message detail
CATS doesnt get hardcore votes, he gets joke votes when people dont like who he is up against

call it whatever you want, but it's going to be good for him in this format.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
RPGuy96 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:50:30 PM | message detail
Oh, and Cloud's 15 minute update percentages are 44.53%, 51.51%, 53.05%, and 56.89%. Given that he's clearly going to dominate the day I don't think 60% (as a final percentage) is out of reach for him.
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:04 PM | message detail
*does hand gesture*


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:19 PM | message detail
If you think Meta has a chance at all, look at the Kirby series match. It got the crap SFFed out of it by METROID.
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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:24 PM | message detail
BTW, KEFKA SUCKS! lol ruining 57.62% of the brackets... >_>
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:31 PM | message detail
I'd gladly throw away my bracket for Meta Knight OR CATS beating Peach.
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Lady Ashe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:36 PM | message detail
How large was that last gain?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:37 PM | message detail
Fact is...I think Meta Knight>Peach is quite possible too, yet no one seems to be discussing that. I think that's more likely than CATS>Peach.

I have like, no faith in the Kirby series. even with the SSBB trailer, I don't think he can top it off.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:51:52 PM | message detail
I'm just curious. Is there any REAL evidence about this hardcore fanbase doing better in this format crap meaning anything? Zelos has a hardcore fanbase (that I am a part of), and the lot of good it did him.

You are correct, so far the "hardcore fanbase" theory has flopped hard.
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:52:00 PM | message detail
call it whatever you want, but it's going to be good for him in this format.

not when there is 3 other options to choose from instead of just one


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
Master Moltar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:52:28 PM | message detail
If Meta-Knight took 2nd in that poll, I would make love with every single person who voted for him.
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Cloud/Jill/Zolom/Ocelot - Bracket: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot (16/20)
ZFS | Posted 9/7/2007 9:52:34 PM | message detail
Like I said HM, Jill and Ocelot have similar trends, but Ocelot bled like crazy against Nemesis. Jill has some games on Nintendo consoles that can't possibly hurt her in the day.

You might as well put that down a one big ol' non-factor because that's exactly what it is. She's always had those Resident Evil remakes on the 'Cube. Her day vote last year, the year before, and the year before that will be exact same as this year. It's slightly better than Ocelot's, but it's nothing to write home about. It's a very slight advantage, one that won't matter if Ocelot continues to build a sizable lead. You can count on there not being any huge day vote shift comebacks from Jill of all characters.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:52:49 PM | message detail
Not only was the Nemesis match two years ago, it was in the Villains Contest, with some of the most piss-poor votals we've had and (presumably) a much different voting pool.

Compare that to Ocelot/Pac-Man - which, while the day vote is what was Ocelot's downfall, he didn't let Pac go crazy or anything with it. And Pac doesn't have a shabby day at all.

Jill could certainly make a move, but it's not guaranteed.

*refreshes*

...and with updates like that, it might not matter.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:53:13 PM | message detail
If Meta Knight can win that match before Brawl is out, I'll eat my hat. Kirby's games aren't exactly a pillar of strength, and I'm willing to bet most of what Kirby has come from him being so goddamned cute. I suppose being the best character in Smash doesn't hurt either.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:53:30 PM | message detail
not when there is 3 other options to choose from instead of just one

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2020
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:54:02 PM | message detail
Bowser so should have been an option in that match.
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This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:54:54 PM | message detail
Ouch. She's fast becoming a Jill Sandwich.

Come on crazy BT voting trend predictions, don't fail me now

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:55:15 PM | message detail
You are correct, so far the "hardcore fanbase" theory has flopped hard.

You sure? I still wouldn't take Ocelot over Jill or Peach one-on-one, and yet that just may happen right here. This match is as good support as any.

And for all Zelos stunk it up, we never had a read on him. It's possible he might have looked even MORE pathetic in a one-on-one setting (a higher percentage sure, but you get what I'm saying).
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:55:28 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2020

Oh come on, not only is that old, but even I would have voted for the CATS option on that poll, and I've never voted for CATS in a character contest.

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Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:56:32 PM | message detail
Still early, but man I'm feeling good about sticking with Cloud > Ocelot.
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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:56:34 PM | message detail
If you think Meta has a chance at all, look at the Kirby series match. It got the crap SFFed out of it by METROID.

Means nothing. Kirby is way different than his series and Meta Knight should follow.

Fact is, I had no idea who Meta Knight was until last year, and have not played a single game he's in. Yet when I googled Meta Knight image I was instantly "Holy crap awesomeness!!"

He's instantly recognizable as a Kirby character, and might well work as a Kirby-proxy. And Kirby would own Jill.

This might be a Shadow/Sonic type situation. I don't see Meta Knight being fodder. And Peach would have trouble with anything that's not fodder.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:57:00 PM | message detail
Oh come on, not only is that old, but even I would have voted for the CATS option on that poll, and I've never voted for CATS in a character contest.

oh, sure it's old, but it worked for me in the Diablo match.

I very much still support the hardcore fanbase theory. say what you will, but it only makes sense. over 50% of my picks were based on who just had a more devoted fanbase, including THIS match.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:57:30 PM | message detail
If Zelos's hardcore fanbase meant anything, he would have at least beat Tom Nook. Hell, if Tom Nook was a girl, Zelos would be getting Hourglasses from him! He is nothing more than a damn RPG-ish shopkeeper!
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This line reserved for next Guru winner. Unless it's me, therefore reserving plenty of noms for Dixie/DKC2.
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:57:34 PM | message detail
I do think CATS has an unfair advantage in that poll. His option is the only comically appealing one, plus, it's not a poll that "counts" in the same way a contest poll would, so more people might have been having fun with it.
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King Morgoth | Posted 9/7/2007 9:58:48 PM | message detail
ATTN: creative
You need to make those columns narrower in the updater, it's ridiculously wide when we get 4 long names....

My eyes hurt =P
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