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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 470

Majin Lou | Posted 9/7/2007 9:31:34 PM | message detail
Nice update for Ocelot, even though it was just Jill dropping and Ocelot staying the same.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:31:35 PM | message detail
If this ends up with Ocelot anywhere near Jill, I'll worry about my Peach to round 2 pick. CATS might have a legitimate shot there....

TuRtLe
~~~
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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:31:41 PM | message detail
I think people got so absorbed by "Jill's day vote sucks" that they forget this isn't really her time. She only had 46% against Peach right now, and went up significantly from it.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:31:42 PM | message detail
Jill spent the entire day heavily bleeding percentage to Sheena. I'll eat my hat if she wins the day vote here.
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 9:31:43 PM | message detail
RAWR! I ***(&()S&D*)(F7 HATE THIS CONTEST! ARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!! KZSUDOIFYQU()*#&$(*)#Q&%$!
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:32:31 PM | message detail
The first hour ior so of the match always has had a unique trend since the poll start time changed to 12 eastern. We need to wait at least another hour or so to see if they're going to start going more 50/50 each update.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:32:40 PM | message detail
If this ends up with Ocelot anywhere near Jill, I'll worry about my Peach to round 2 pick. CATS might have a legitimate shot there....

CATS always had a legitimate shot.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.
Draco1214 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:33:01 PM | message detail
I think people got so absorbed by "Jill's day vote sucks" that they forget this isn't really her time. She only had 46% against Peach right now, and went up significantly from it.

The difference here is that Ocelot actually has a very good night vote, or at least, on par with Jill. I don't think Peach is the kind of character who would do well in the night.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:33:21 PM | message detail
I think people got so absorbed by "Jill's day vote sucks" that they forget this isn't really her time. She only had 46% against Peach right now, and went up significantly from it.

Again, it's not exactly likely that this is "Ocelot's Time" either. These are night owls.
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:33:42 PM | message detail
I'm not worried about having Peach in round 2, the dynamics of every match are different


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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:33:43 PM | message detail
I hate it when people have no concept on how voting trends work come in here and make hilariously wrong statements.

Jill bleeding percent wasn't her sucking with the day vote so much as it was Sheena's night being stronger than her day. We're talking about Revolver Ocelot here.

The guy who bled percentage to Nemesis all day.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
Haste_2 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:33:58 PM | message detail
I hope Jill really blows it in order to make Peach look worse. That way CATS will have a better chance.

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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:34:34 PM | message detail
Not like Jill is looking solid here, but she'll probably finish above where she is now (18.5%), and Ocelot should finish under where he is now (20.6%).

Also, as for Cloud getting 60%, I'd be surprised. He should pass 55% and maybe get close to 60%, but I don't think he can hit 60%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:34:44 PM | message detail
As much as it would ruin my bracket, I'd pay to see CATS win that match.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 9:35:16 PM | message detail
Peach has 2nd locked up, regardless of what happens in this match.

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GrapefruitKing | Posted 9/7/2007 9:35:49 PM | message detail
Cloud raised of almost 1% in just one update
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Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction:~ Cloud 59.23% - Jill 18.98% - Zolomy 5.63% - Ocelot 16.16% ~ Status: OK
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:35:49 PM | message detail
I'd literally pay to see CATS win a match. Like... at least six thousand dollars.
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__Mega64__ | Posted 9/7/2007 9:36:03 PM | message detail
Yeah, Cloud's definitely heading to 55%.
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Draco1214 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:36:16 PM | message detail
CATS winning his match depends solely on how badly Sephiroth mauls his fourpack. CATS is guaranteed 12-13% of the vote, so the better Sephiroth does, the less votes there will be for Peach to eat up.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:36:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, Zolom is already dropping like a rock, and most of it is going to Cloud

TuRtLe
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:36:27 PM | message detail
annnnnnd there goes Cloud. Everyone say "bye Cloud"
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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:36:44 PM | message detail
Again, it's not exactly likely that this is "Ocelot's Time" either. These are night owls.

But Jill doesn't seem to be a night owl at this time of night. This actually looks to be a below average time for her given the Peach match. Now some of that was probably board Peach favoritism, but then isn't Ocelot a board favorite too?

Jill's a night owl, but she should ramp it up later on. Whether that will be enough, it's too early to tell.
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Haste_2 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:37:03 PM | message detail
I will only concede CATS' chance of winning if Bowser beats Ryu by a decent margin.

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greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:37:03 PM | message detail
CATS isn't winning crap. Any support Meta Knight has from SSBB is going to Peach and he is not strong enough without it to bring down Peach to that degree. Don't believe me? Look at how the Kirby series did in the Series contest.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:37:45 PM | message detail
The first hour ior so of the match always has had a unique trend since the poll start time changed to 12 eastern. We need to wait at least another hour or so to see if they're going to start going more 50/50 each update.

Of course you all know this, and are just calling matches 30 minutes in for fun, but still. >_>
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:37:57 PM | message detail
Peach has 2nd locked up, regardless of what happens in this match.

we will see, my friend. I chose CATS > Peach the same reason I chose Ocelot > Jill.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:38:25 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter that Peach will be on the good side of the SFF there, Meta Knight's presence alone is a split in the Nintendo core. Any vote Meta Knight gets is a vote Peach doesn't get.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/7/2007 9:38:41 PM | message detail
So... how are things looking for the delicious jill sandwich atm? >.>

Coz I'm pretty concerned at the moment...
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 9/7/2007 9:38:48 PM | message detail
If CATS actually advanced I'd have a seizure.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:39:14 PM | message detail
But Jill doesn't seem to be a night owl at this time of night. This actually looks to be a below average time for her given the Peach match.

Well, this time of night tends to act somewhat like a miniature day vote. It's possible - probable, even - that while Jill does poorly here, so does Ocelot relative to his best times.

Now some of that was probably board Peach favoritism, but then isn't Ocelot a board favorite too?

I might be wrong, but I thought Jill was a heavy favorite in the Guru. I didn't check, so I might be wrong...
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 9:39:14 PM | message detail
the same reason I chose Ocelot > Jill.

And of course that's a lock/. I mean look at ocelot's massive lead there. We've never seen anyone come back from that much before!
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Riku11 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:39:16 PM | message detail
nor is it a vote CATS gets...
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Riku11 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:39:41 PM | message detail
my post was towards BT.
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Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:40:02 PM | message detail
CATS isnt going anywhere guys, stop dreaming


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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:40:26 PM | message detail
I'm not going to call anything just yet. We need to see what happens when the NPH ends. If Ocelot starts making meaningful gains, then Jill will have to rely on her Nintendo backing during the day. If Jill starts pulling away overnight, I'll be willing to call it in her favour.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
YoAriel33 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:40:42 PM | message detail
People who think this current result favors CATS are sadly drawing the wrong conclusion from the same evidence. Most of the people who gambled and went with CATS did it with the hope that Sephiroth would absolutely maul his fourpack, to the tune of 60%+. If Cloud can't reach that number, can Sephiroth? The worse Seph cleans house, the better Peach will do.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:40:53 PM | message detail
I don't see why CATS can't win in this format.
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
Kegger9 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:41:17 PM | message detail
*does hand gesture*


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creativename | Posted 9/7/2007 9:41:48 PM | message detail
CATS does have a shot. Peach has to be favored, but CATS winning is within the realm of possibility.


I might be wrong, but I thought Jill was a heavy favorite in the Guru. I didn't check, so I might be wrong...

I meant board favorite in terms of preference, not bracket. Ocelot is popular here right?
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:41:53 PM | message detail
because he's freaking CATS
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DpObliVion | Posted 9/7/2007 9:41:58 PM | message detail
Dude....CATS has absolutely no chance.

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See Quote for Character Battle VI Printable Bracket 17/20 : (
charmander6000 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:42:17 PM | message detail
Whoever gets a lead of 1000 first wins, both of these characters have similar voting trends that anymore and it'll be too much.
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Match 6: Cloud Strife > Jill Valentine Points: 18/20
MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 9:42:26 PM | message detail
Dude....CATS has absolutely no chance.

do you at least have a reason for it?
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Today: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot
Tomorrow: Auron > Shadow - Vote: Shadow - Points: 16/20.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 9:42:44 PM | message detail
Match #6
[Who Picked Whom]
Group Winner
Cloud - 181 (99.45%)
Ocelot - 1 (0.55%)
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Second Place
Jill Valentine - 148 (81.32%)
Ocelot - 32 (17.58%)
Cloud - 1 (0.55%)
Zolom - 1 (0.55%)


Jill was a pretty big favourite in the guru, but I don't think the Board vote counts for much outside the first 10 minutes. And the first hour of the vote is so radically different every match that it's hard to pinpoint what exactly is going on here.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism
ZFS | Posted 9/7/2007 9:43:20 PM | message detail
then Jill will have to rely on her Nintendo backing during the day.

what

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Xcarvengerx | Posted 9/7/2007 9:43:20 PM | message detail
I'd literally pay to see CATS win a match. Like... at least six thousand dollars.

SBAllen may take your offer... :p
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:43:49 PM | message detail
Dude....CATS has absolutely no chance.

do you at least have a reason for it?


Because he's freakin CATS.
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greatone10 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:44:18 PM | message detail
It should be pointed out the Board vote is probably the most divided it will probably ever be. This board loves MGS and Ocelot, backs Jill in their favorites, and is obsessed with Zolom ASCII.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2007 9:44:19 PM | message detail
I meant board favorite in terms of preference, not bracket. Ocelot is popular here right?

Yeah, but that tends to mean little when the brackets are on the line *checks Guru* Jill has 128 brackets as opposed to Ocelot's 30-something. If there were any bracket (read: non-Zolom) votes from this pool, I'm almost positive they went to Jill.
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wavedash101 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:44:24 PM | message detail
what

this

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