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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 469

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trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:20:57 PM | message detail

still, I don't have hope in Jill beating *anyone* during the day, so I'll just call that a push. I think whoever wins the night vote will win this match, cause Cloud's going to get a lot of votes during the daytime.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:21:26 PM | message detail

Haha, Jill having anything wrapped up before the day vote is laughable.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

Chamek | Posted 9/7/2007 5:24:22 PM | message detail

Doesn't seem like this is hampering comebacks at all.

I would imagine it would help with comebacks in some cases... such as today. Were Marcus up against Kefka on his own, there's a strong chance he would be losing so it wouldn't matter in the first place. Further, against three other characters, one of them being from another RPG and the other a Nintendo character (and VI being on a Nintendo console), all of the "hardcore" Microsoft fan-base votes are going to him, and the "anti-votes" (read: votes not for him) are being split three ways. This likely speaks wonders for MC's chances in the contest.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:24:36 PM | message detail

Match #16
[Who Picked Whom]
Group Winner
Zero - 178 (97.80%)
HK-47 - 3 (1.65%)
Lloyd - 1 (0.55%)
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Second Place
Lloyd - 113 (62.09%)
Jak - 36 (19.78%)
HK-47 - 29 (15.93%)
Zero - 4 (2.20%)

lol board 8

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:25:21 PM | message detail

It's weird how quickly Board 8 forgets how many people dislike Lloyd.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:27:40 PM | message detail

after seeing Kratos, I don't think Lloyd can top it now.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.

dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:27:59 PM | message detail

I think lloyd is the least likely of the three to grab second place in that match.
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Evil_REmade | Posted 9/7/2007 5:31:13 PM | message detail

Yeah, after seeing how horrible ToS characters have done so far, I'm glad I switched out Lloyd for Jak.
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trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:32:37 PM | message detail

eh, I'd say Lloyd > Zelos at this point. it's not actually based on anything, but nor is the idea that Lloyd is going to bomb because Zelos did. Kratos looked pretty all right just yesterday.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:33:00 PM | message detail

I'm content with hk-47 in second. I think it's a ibt of a crapshoot to see who wins out there between the three anyways, so at least I've got the character I'd like to see "win".
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MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 5:33:17 PM | message detail

I took HK-47 at the last second over Jak. Lloyd was never really a "solid pick" in my mind. Well, not that any of them are....but Lloyd especially wasn't.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:33:20 PM | message detail

Yeah, but you know Lloyd ain't touching Kratos, strength-wise. I honestly think he'd be having a hard time with Tom Nook right now.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

KamikazePotato | Posted 9/7/2007 5:34:32 PM | message detail

HK-47 in second for me.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:35:21 PM | message detail

Match #6
[Who Picked Whom]
Group Winner
Cloud - 181 (99.45%)
Ocelot - 1 (0.55%)
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Second Place
Jill Valentine - 148 (81.32%)
Ocelot - 32 (17.58%)
Cloud - 1 (0.55%)
Zolom - 1 (0.55%)

Wow, didn't think Jill would be favoured that much. Ocelot has a very realistic chance tomorrow.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:36:06 PM | message detail

Well, yeah, but it was the exact same thing last year with Peach/Jill, except in Peach's favor. Even in debatable matches, there's usually a clear favorite. Groupthink, yo!
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 5:36:12 PM | message detail

Which poor bastard took Ocelot > Cloud?
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ZhangJunyi | Posted 9/7/2007 5:36:29 PM | message detail

I have Jak in second for the kiddie vote.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 5:37:13 PM | message detail

*looks*

lol mega mana

Oh wait..... he's one of the other 2 taking Zero....

lol me?

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:37:29 PM | message detail

If ocelot gets second, that would ensure marcus making it to round 3, when you consider what happens in ff7/mgs matches. That very thing is probably what will give him little to no shot at making second tomorrow though.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:38:43 PM | message detail

And what the hell at someone in the guru contest having ocelot > cloud. I thought people in that at least had some clue of what goes on in these things. >_>
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:38:57 PM | message detail

If Ocelot can get second place tomorrow in spite of potential FFVII/MGS weirdness, he can beat Fenix next round.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:41:00 PM | message detail

If Ocelot can get second place tomorrow in spite of potential FFVII/MGS weirdness, he can beat Fenix next round.

True, but now that I think about it, ocelot getting second is really, really unlikely due to ff7/mgs sff that happens for whatever reason.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 5:41:58 PM | message detail

what do we call MGS/RE, then? I dunno. let's wait and find out.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.

MMXcalibur | Posted 9/7/2007 5:42:17 PM | message detail

Maybe it's just me, but other than SFF cases such as Arthas/Diablo, you can pretty much throw out most conventional thinking out the window.
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LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2007 5:45:18 PM | message detail

Ahh, Zelos was so close to taking an update from Nook.
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"I'm no hero...Never was. I'm just an old killer...hired to do some wet work."

trannyscience | Posted 9/7/2007 5:45:41 PM | message detail

he took some overnight! SUCK IT NOOKFAQS
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 5:48:52 PM | message detail

Man, I figured Kefka would've started at least recovering his percentage somewhat by now.
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Vote for Serge.

Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 5:49:43 PM | message detail

Yeah, after seeing how horrible ToS characters have done so far, I'm glad I switched out Lloyd for Jak.

...

...GAAAAAAAAARGH!!!!
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 5:52:55 PM | message detail

Exactly, he should have switched him for hk-47 instead.

lol lloyd
lol tos
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:00:08 PM | message detail

At the 20:55 mark, this match has 108894 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Knux/Rikku/Vaan/Yoshi - 143753
Arthas/Diablo/KOS-MOS/Mega Man - 126132
Axel/Frog/Samus/Kerrigan - 121673
Agent 47/Kratos/Midna/Scorpion - 116985

Vote totals are gradually dropping, but the overall total strength has been dropping from match to match, too. Cloud should help bring things back up, and it's a Saturday, too.
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Vote for Serge.

Biolizard28 | Posted 9/7/2007 6:03:10 PM | message detail

I have Cloud > Ocelot for tomorrow. Seems like the unpopular choice, but hell.
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:03:46 PM | message detail

Don't feel bad! The unpopular choice has won the last two days!
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Vote for Serge.

Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 6:04:27 PM | message detail

I went with Cloud > Ocelot as well. Just feel good about it.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
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Evil_REmade | Posted 9/7/2007 6:04:52 PM | message detail

I honestly have no real faith in HK-47 and never really have. ToS characters have disappointed so far, so that doesn't bode well for Lloyd. That just leaves Jak, which is a pick I'm honestly not that confident in anyway. Honestly, any of those three is capable of taking second there.
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MadGamer_11 | Posted 9/7/2007 6:05:34 PM | message detail

Scorpion>Midna was unpopular? lol Midna and especially Kratos.
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:05:44 PM | message detail

I really don't see any reason to believe Lloyd is going to take second. In a fourway poll, being LIKED actually counts for more. Lloyd isn't that well-liked, even by ToS fans.
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Vote for Serge.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 6:05:59 PM | message detail

Yeah, the votals don't worry me given the fact that this is probably the weakest fourpack we've seen (unless Scorpion winds up bombing to hell next round, which is still a possibility)

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:06:13 PM | message detail

On Board 8, Scorpion > Midna was the minority pick, to be sure.
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Vote for Serge.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 9/7/2007 6:06:22 PM | message detail

I don't see why HK-47 doesn't have a shot. he's the only character out of the three that actually has people who adore him.
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Today: Kefka > Marcus - Vote: Kefka
Tomorrow: Cloud > Ocelot - Vote: Ocelot - Points: 14/16.

NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:07:18 PM | message detail

Biolizard28 | Posted 9/7/2007 6:08:00 PM | message detail

From Keno316 | Posted 9/7/2007 9:04:27 PM | #333
I went with Cloud > Ocelot as well. Just feel good about it.

I do feel good about it. I just think I put him advancing for the wrong reason. (MGS4 hype boost... I mean, really now.)
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Biolizard28: The cream of Fire Emblem (And Ike!) fanboyism.
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Evil_REmade | Posted 9/7/2007 6:09:30 PM | message detail

Like I said, I'm not all that confident in Jak anyway. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if HK-47 did win second, but I just can't see him winning it for some reason.
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:09:58 PM | message detail

It doesn't really matter WHY he advances, just as long as he does.

...I'm looking forward to the "Activate it..." quotes tomorrow if Jill/Ocelot is a close one.
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Vote for Serge.

Biolizard28 | Posted 9/7/2007 6:11:04 PM | message detail

I have Lloyd advancing, but after today's poll... I don't know.
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HaRRicH | Posted 9/7/2007 6:12:08 PM | message detail

Is this now officially the biggest swing to date once the poll stabilized? The only other one I can think of that competes with this is Kuja/MH.....
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:13:11 PM | message detail

I don't even know why we consider Kuja/MH a "swing" when Kuja was barely ever winning in the first place.
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Vote for Serge.

dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 6:14:42 PM | message detail

Kuja/mh had just under a 6,000 vote swing. This one is around 5,300, and looks to have the potential to beat it.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 9/7/2007 6:15:20 PM | message detail

In fact unless kefka starts going 50/50 with marcus soon, it's very likely it will happen.
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NominateSerge | Posted 9/7/2007 6:16:21 PM | message detail

I want to see hour-by-hour percentages just so I can see how bad Kefka has done...in chart form!
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Vote for Serge.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 9/7/2007 6:17:26 PM | message detail

Heh, I love how BT says he "admits when he's wrong" and yet he still has these lame excuses for Sub-Zero beating Master Chief instead of owning up to it.

Just face it, people still like Mortal Kombat. Armageddon didn't make a difference. Scorpion's chances of bombing are extremely unlikely.

....what? I don't think anybody here had Subby > MC, and in retrospect I probably should have done more reasearch and learned that Subby was getting a new game on the day of the match (though I doubt that would have changed my mind). I've admitted I was wrong about that one many times. And if Scorpion winds up beating Frog, I'll admit I was wrong about that too. I just have a hard time believing that Sub-Zero would have won that match if he didn't get Armageddon right then. Just like most people have a hard time believing 2k2 Mario beats Cloud without Mario Sunshine.

TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy" -trancer1
BlAcK TuRtLe. The cream of Zero fanboyism

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